Whilst the Massachusetts Senate Special and a series of dodgy house polls have Democrats convinced that the November midterms will be apocalyptic; the fact is that a number of Republican held House districts are in fact vulnerable to a takeover from Democratic challengers.
How many?
Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.
***This diary should be read in conjunction with the diary by Silver Spring***
There are 5 groups of races that are or might become or potentially should be competitive in November. They include Obama Republican districts, districts with very good candidates and districts of a Republican PVI of R+4 and less.
The first ten races below are ranked in order of probability of takeover. These races WILL be competitive in November.
1. DE-AL (Castle) – D+7,
Stick a fork in this one it is done.
With Castle running for the Senate does anyone really think there is a Republican in Delaware who can hold this district for the GOP? Especially as the Democratic Party currently leads in voter reg – 288,380 to 180,620.
With Carney sitting on a 100/1 Cash on hand advantage as at the end of December and the only poll available showing Carney with a 23 point lead this 62% Obama district is certain to end up in the Democratic column in November.
2. LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,
Incumbent GOP Rep Anh Cao has one thing and one thing alone going for him – a Cash on Hand advantage of $91K as at the end of December – $316K-$225K.
Every other indicator tells us that presumptive Democratic nominee State Rep Cedric Richmond will steamroll his way through this race in November.
After all Obama got no less than 75% of the vote in this D+25 district. Also there are 237,103 registered Democrats and only 39,753 registered Republicans. And lastly of course, we can all remember how Cao only won in 2008 courtesy of an awfully corrupt Democratic incumbent – Bill Jefferson.
Cao is toast.
3. IL-10 (Kirk) – D+6,
With Republican Dold and Democrat Seals emerging from competitive primaries this open District race is definitely on the radar for 2010.
Dold leads in COH $198K/$145K (as at 13th January) but Seals has the rolodex to crank up the fundraising on his 3rd attempt at the district, particularly if supporters of his vanquished primary opponent – Julie Hamos – circle the wagons and pitch in (she did raise over $1 mill). To this point Seals has outraised Dold too.
Seals will win here for two interlinked reasons:
1) Obama got 61% of the vote here in 2008.
2) Dold is just not moderate enough to attract crossover votes the way Mark Kirk did.
– I should note I volunteered for Seals in 2008 and am ridiculously biased.
4. PA-06 (Gerlach) – D+4,
With Gerlach back in the race (but flat broke (and his aborted Gubernatorial race was flat broke too at the end) this one will be the focus of much attention.
Presumptive nominee Doug Pike has more than $1 Mill COH as at 31st December, although it is largely self funded. BTW at this stage in 2008 Gerlach had raised almost $1.5 mill and still almost lost 52%/48% over a 2nd tier candidate.
This D+4, 58% Obama district (that also voted for Kerry like all of my top 6 races) is at worst a 50/50 pick up chance.
5. PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,
For the first time Dent has a serious top tier opponent. Having dispatched a serious of 2nd tier candidates Dent is in for the race of his life in 2010. Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan seems to be the real deal. As well as already being a public official Callahan has in the last quarter outraised Dent and they are basically equal in
COH.
Dent must be worried as his campaign released a very dodgy internal poll showing him leading 58%/27% but refused to release the internals to go with it (a sure sign of bodgy polling)as is the claimed Obama approval rating of 41% compared to a Pennsylvania wide 57% (According to Gallup). Obama won this district in 2008 56%/43%.
Callahan has a shot here. Either way it will be competitive.
6. WA-08 (Reichert) – D+3,
Washingtons’ 8th congressional district is one of a handful that are on the perennial target list for Democrats that we didn’t win in 2006 or 2008. Will 2010 be the year? Yeh quite possibly.
Obama carried this one 56%/42% in 2008 whilst Reichert was held to 52.78% by Darcy Burner.
So far so good.
As at the end of December Democrat Delbene led the COH race $773,327/$477,149 and had raised to that point $1,047,873 to Reicherts’$985,665. Whilst almost half of Delbenes’ total came from a loan from herself to the campaign she has shown herself to be adept at fundraising from others. Yep we have a self funder who can also fundraise.
Watch this one on election night – very closely.
7. CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,
Well whoever would have thunk it; CA-03 as a competitive race!
Democrat Amri has just come off a $249K fundraising quarter and has more COH than Republican Lungren ($739K/$526K), who only raised $138K. At this point in the cycle Amri has outraised Lungren as well ($871K/$732K).
Add to this the facts that Obama won the district 49.3%/48.8%, Lungren only won in 2008 by 49.49%/43.93% and the voter registration advantage for the GOP has decreased from 6.6% in 2006 to near parity (38.46%/39.04%)as of the start of 2010 and we have a race on our hands.
This one will be very interesting come November.
8. NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,
Yep hard to believe that a congressional district in Nebraska could be competitive but the 2nd shall be so. Remember that Obama carried this Omaha based district 50%/49% and the makings are there for a good race. State Senator Tom White is quite an adept fundraiser for a challenger too. After a 180K December quarter he has $343K COH compared to incumbent Republican Terry’s $543K COH. Given that challengers rarely lead the COH chase this one is set for a great race in November.
9. SC-02 (Wilson) – R+9,
SC-02 will be know as the 2010 Moneybomb District! Why? because at the end of December incumbent Republican Joe “you lie” Wilson and his Democratic challenger Robert Miller have raised a breathtaking $5.5 Million between them. Wilson has $2,341,915 COH and Miller has $1,678,436 COH! To be honest Millers’ COH should by itself make this one competive.
However when you consider that Wilson was held to 53.74% in 2008 and that whilst McCain won easily 54%/45%, that is only 1% better than the neighbouring 5th, held by Democrat John Spratt and you have a barn burner in the making.
This race will be fascinating on election night – no doubt about it!
10. KS-04 (Tiahrt) – R+14,
Despite its’ heavily Republican nature (McCain won here 58%/40%) this race will be competitive in November – absolutely.
Democrat Goyle is fundraising up a storm having raised $656K as at the end of December. His closest rival – Republican Pompeo – has only raised $429K. Last quarter Goyle managed a staggering (for a Kansas Democrat) $253K for the quarter and currently has $583K COH; a fair effort to say the least. Pompeo meanwhile managed only $78K for a COH total of $318K. Republican Kelsey FWIW, despite an impressive 233K quarter, has only $40K COH!
Love to see a poll here but definitely one to watch on election night.
This second group of Districts are likely to be competitive in November but are not there yet:
AL-03 (Rogers) – R+9,
Democrat Joshua Segall had a $100K December quarter and is behind in COH by only $216K/$392K.
He ran in 2008 and kept Rogers to 46%/54% as McCain carried the District 56%/43%.
Not a friendly district for Democrats but if Segall can file some 6 figure fundraising quarters then this race could well be up there in November.
CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,
Democratic candidate (and Palm Springs Mayor) Stephen Pougnet is on the cusp of a very competitive challenge to GOP incumbent Mary Bono Mack – finally a top tier candidate here.
Obama carried this district 51.5%/46.9% and the GOP registration gap has shrunk from 10% to 3.48% between 2006 and the start of this year – 38.02%/41.50% currently.
The only fly in the ointment (apart from the national political environment!) is of course fundraising. Whilst Pougnet has outraised Bono Mack in two of the last three quarters and has slightly then than half as much COH as her $402K/$893K his COH actually went backwards by 10K last quarter despite a $150K quarter. Pougnet just needs a good solid $200K March Quarter IMHO to cash him up for the stretch and make this race definitely competitive.
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart OPEN) – R+5,
With Mario Diaz-Balart bolting to run in the 21st to replace his retiring brother Lincoln this race will be one to watch.
McCain carried this one 50%/49% whilst Diaz-Balart was held to 53%. The Republican Voter registration advantage is only 3364; 137,913/134,549 as at the 2008 election. This is down from 21818 at the 21006 midterms.
Diaz-Balart had only $178K COH as at the end of December too BTW. Expect a top tier Dem to jump in here, maybe 2006 nominee Joe Garcia, and at that point this one should become competitive. The only Democrat currently running, Luis Rivera has yet to file a fundraising report having jumped in only a month or so ago.
MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,
Despite missing out on our preferred candidate State Sen Terri Bonoff there is every chance that this district that Obama carried 52%/46% in 2008 will be competitive. Democratic presumptive nominee Maureen Hackett only got into the race in October and self funded $103K of her $138K quarter ($129K COH). The March quarter will be telling but if as I suspect she has a really good go at fundraising up a storm this one will be competitive. The cloud on the horizon, of course, is incumbent Republican Paulsens’ $943K COH!
MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+7,
As luck would have it we have two viable candidates in this district that McCain carried 53%/45%.
Maureen Reed has 388K COH after a $208K December quarter.
Tarryl Clark (who I think will be the nominee) has yep $388K COH after a $294K December quarter. These are great numbers for both candidates. The only reason this one isn’t yet on the competitive list is batshit crazy Michelle Bachmanns’ $1 million COH!
If either Democrat can manage another $250K March quarter then this race is on for young and old despite its’ Republican bent.
OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,
Democratic candidate Brooks has her work cut out running against incumbent Republican Tiberi. He and his $1.2 mill COH! And his $449K December quarter haul. Brooks must we wondering what more she needs to do after her 4th quarter haul of $231K, leaving her with $328K COH – a very respectable set of numbers. Will this district that Obama carried 54%/44% be competitive in November? Dunno – but another 200K quarter will at least make Brooks (already a top tier challenger) quite viable.
Time will tell.
The third group of Districts are those that may, but are unlikely, to become competitive:
CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,
Obama won this district 49.5%/48.6% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined from 22% to a still whopping 15% as at Jan 1. That stat and Republican Campbells’ $1.031M/$171K COH advantage over Democrat Krom makes it unlikely that this race will become competitive. But it may. After all Krom has raised $299K so far this cycle including a reasonable but not great $90K in the December quarter. Campbell’s $500K December quarter makes it very tough though.
CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,
A 60K odd December quarter does not a competitive race make, especially when the COH only increases by $10K!. Busby has been beaten twice before by the current incumbent, and unfortunately seems headed that way again. Working in her favor is the fact that Obama carried the district 51.3%/47.1% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined from 14% in 2006 to 7.58% (39.91%/31.33%) as at the start of this year. However this will be a what might have been IMHO.
MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,
With former Democratic State Rep Shelley Madore only jumping in at the start of January this race has yet to solidify. On the down side is the fact that McCain carried this district 50%/48%. On the upside incumbent Republican Kline has (only!) $358K COH after a modest $152K December quarter.
Wait and see but it may be a bit late in the cycle for this one to fire up.
NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,
Yet another district where the Democratic candidate (Potosnak) has only just got into the race so it may take some time for things to play out. Obama carried this district 50%/49% and Leonard has only $347K COH (not a lot for a congressional race in New Jersey) and raised only 60K in the December quarter. Interestingly enough the Democrats have a 16K voter registration advantage here as at November 2009 – 121,553/105,943.
TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,
A $151K 4th quarter and $114K COH should be a promising start. Unless your opponent is the head of the NRCC and has $1.075 million COH. Oh dear.
Roggio seems to be quite a credible candidate but without a monster March quarter he just isn’t going to be in a position to be competitive in November.
McCain carried this district 53%/46% too btw – red but not ruby red.
And fourthly these districts have either 3rd tier candidates or candidates whose fundraising precludes a competitive race at this stage:
CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,
A 15K December quarter for leading Democrat Tim Allison means this one can’t be competitive; the resources simply aren’t there. This is all the more so given that Gallegly has $836K COH to Allison’s $35K . Pity because Obama carried this one 50.5%/47.7% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined from 10% to 5.75% (41.53%/35.78%) between 2006 and the start of this year.
CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,
Our candidate, 2008 nominee Jackie Conaway hasn’t even registered with the FEC – Game over.
Pity as Obama carried the district 49.4%/48.3% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined to 2% over the last 3 years!
CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,
2008 Democratic challenger Warner had a poor December quarter raising only 37K and his COH is only $123K compared to incumbent Republican Dreier’s $1.025 million! Obama won the district 51/47 and the GOP voter reg advantage has dropped from 11% to 4.5% as of the start of 2010.
Despite that the COH gap and Warners’ poor December fundraising means this one is unlikely to be competitive this November alas.
CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,
Obama won this district 49.3%/48.6% and the GOP voter reg advantage has decreased from 15% in 2006 to 8% as at Jan 5th 2010. Competitive race right? Wrong. Democrat Hedrick who only lost in 2008 48.8/51.2 just can’t seem to crank up the fundraising. Having raised only 29K in the December quarter he now trails in the COH race $95K/$519K.
Such a shame.
FL-10 (Young) – R+1,
State Sen Charlie Justice – what a great name for a congressional candidate – is the best candidate that the Democrats have run against republican incumbent Bill Young in years and years. It is such a pity then that Justices’ fundraising is so poor – $59K last quarter and $91K COH.
This is a District that should be competitive; Obama carried it 52%/47% and the Repub voter reg advantage declined from 169,982/153,728 in 2006 to 170,749/164,400 in 2008.
Alas but for that poor fundraising.
FL-12 (Putnam OPEN) – R+6,
Democrat Lori Edwards won’t make this a competitive election with a $26K December quarter ($60K COH). This is all the more so given that presumptive Republican nominee Dennis Ross has $273K COH as at the end of December after an admittedly poor December quarter; raising only $76K himself.
This is a pity given that McCain only carried the District 50/49 and the Democratic voter reg advantage INCREASED from 2006 – 2008 from 153,189/166,794 to 164,780/192,958. WOW
As an open seat this one will almost certainly be a what might have been in November unless Edwards can seriously step up her fundraising.
FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,
The Democratic candidate Shannon Roberts has not filed a fundraising report despite filing to run over a year ago. Game over.
Pity as this 51%/48% McCain district, with it s’ repidly decreasing GOP voter reg advantage (189,872/158,363 – 2006 199,669/183,100 – 2008) should really have been competitive. Oh well.
IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,
The race has not yet really taken shape in this district that Obama carried 56%/43%. Democratic challenger Ben Lowe filed for the race halfway through November and raised a scant $14K. Republican incumbent Roskam on the other hand after a $350K December quarter is sitting on $547K.
We really won’t know whether this will be competitive or not until after the March fundraising filings come in. I suspect it won’t as both parties will be focused on tussles in the 10th, 11th and 14th.
Maybe in 2012.
IL-13 (Biggert) – R+1,
2008 Democratic nominee Harper is back in 2010 in this district that Obama carried 54%/44%.
Unfortunately a $42K December quarter ($90K COH) does not cut the mustard against Republican incumbent Biggert who had a $142K December quarter ($637K COH).
Harper is a good, credible candidate who kept Biggert to 53% in 2008. Unless he has a monster March quarter this one just isn’t going to be competitive in November.
IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,
Whilst Obama carried this district 53%/46% this one only just scraped in as a potentially competitive race. And it won’t be with Democrat Gaulrapp raising a scant $14K ($7K COH) in the December quarter. Manzullo raised $150K ($355K COH) in the same period.
IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,
This race is really still just coming together. However that Democrat Maske managed to fundraise only $12K in the last 2 months of 2009 I think we can safely predict another cakewalk for Republican Latham in this district that Obama won 53%/46%. BTW as at Feb 1st the Democrats had a 8000 voter registration advantage 126503/118484.
Incumbent Republican McCotter has been on Democratic target lists for years in this 54%/45% Obama district. He was even held to 51% in 2008. Despite this the Democrats have always failed to get a top tier opponent against him. Will 2010 be the year? It is hard to tell honestly but i doubt it. When Democrat Mosher declared at the start of 2009 she struck me (and the party) as being at best 2nd tier.
And this turns out to be the likely case with Mosher raising only $37K in the December quarter ($44K COH) compared to McCotters’ $118K December quarter ($579K) COH. Lets see what the March quarter reports bring but don’t hold your breath.
OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,
With McCain just shading Obama by less than 1% this District should be competitive. But it is unlikely. Whilst 2008 Democratic candidate O’Neill is back for another shot he did get thumped by alomost 20% in 2008. The other Democrat in the race – Greene – hasn’t even registered with the FEC to fundraise despite being in the race since November. Whilst LaTourette only has a modest $447K COH as at the end of November this race is highly unlikely to be a show stopper.
VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,
Another perennial Democratic target sees no less than 4 Democrats running here in 2010. And it is no wonder as Obama carried the district 53%/46% and this part of Virginia is rapidly bluing. Incumbent Republican Wolf has nothing to fear here though, as none of his putative opponents have more than $6K COH as at the end of December compared to Wolfs’ $346K COH. A really disappointing miss for team blue.
WI-01 (Ryan) – R+2,
Democratic challenger Garin has $546 COH as at the end of December; incumbent Republican Ryan has $1.565 million. Game over in this 51%/47% Obama district.
The last group of Districts are those that at this stage do not seem likely to competitive.
as we do not have declared Democratic candidates as yet!
FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) – R+3,
MI-04 (Camp) – R+3,
MI-06 (Upton) – R+0,
MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2,
NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,
NY-03 (King) – R+4,
VA-04 (Forbes) – R+4,
WI-06 (Petri) – R+4,
So in summary:
10 competitive races.
6 races that should become competitive.
5 races that may become competitive.
15 races that should be competitive but are highly unlikely to be so.
8 races that should be potentially become competitive but won’t be unless we find a candidate.
Not a particularly pretty scenario for Democrats but not nearly as terrible as the GOP and the traditional media would have you believe.
On to November!
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What say you?
I say we win all of your top seven, plus MN-06, for a total of eight pickups.
Of those, there are two races I’m very unsure about: PA-06 and FL-15. I’m deeply concerned about the candidate recruitment situation in PA-06; Pike seems to be turning people off but has all the money, Trivedi is popular and energetic but can’t fundraise, both candidates are fundraising poorly at present, and Gerlach is going to get his footing very soon and start bringing in the big bucks. In FL-15, I can’t tell whether Garcia’s strong performance last cycle was an indication of Diaz-Balart fatigue or a genuine vote of confidence for Garcia. At the moment, I’m rating PA-06 a pickup and FL-15 a loss, but I’m really not sure. I’m also somewhat concerned about WA-08. I didn’t and don’t believe DelBene has the profile to take that seat, but her fundraising numbers are amazing, and this quarter made me a believer.
I also think it’s still possible that we’ll find a decent challenger to McCotter. So my absolute best-case scenario is ten pickups, but the last two depend entirely on candidate recruitment.
Finally, I’d like to get your take on the race in IN-03. This is the one race that didn’t make it to your big board that I think is potentially competitive. Tom Hayhurst, who got 46% against Mark Souder in 2006, is back for a rematch. That in itself isn’t enough to make the seat competitive, but incredibly enough, Hayhurst raised more money in the fourth quarter than Souder has in the bank. Now Souder is getting kicked around in the primary by a rich auto dealer. The PVI on this district is terrible, but not any worse than in KS-04, where Raj Goyle is turning in a similarly excellent performance.
Though I don’t see how any district other than LA-02 can be at the top of the list. Our path to victory there consists of: (1) Don’t nominate a candidate who’s under federal indictment. I really think that Cao would have had a better shot at beating David Vitter in a Senate primary than winning reelection in the 2nd.
A Democrat probably won’t win TX-32 as long as the Park Cities are in that district. Sessions will continue to win reelection with around 55% of the vote, but I don’t think he can actually be beaten in the current district.
People need to be reminded that despite all of the MSM and Tekzilla Chicken Littles screaming bloody murder, this is an anti-incumbent environment, not necessarily an anti-Democratic one.
Personally, I think we pick up most of the House seats you list in your first tier and maybe a handful in the second or third, and do better in certain races (i.e. ID-01) than the pundits are predicting. Dems will probably have a small net loss in the House, a big net loss (but still in control) in the Senate, and get absolutely steamrolled in governors’ races. We could have some crappy redistricting situations as a result of this, but Congress will probably be able to get about as much done next session as it does now – i.e. doodley squat – and I like to think that if the Senate loses Reid the remaining Senate Dems will actually develop a competent leadership strategy. Ha ha.
I think you may be a tad optimistic with some of the races lower down in your top 10, but that’s just an impression I have at this point in the race.
In PA-06, has polling showed Trivedi losing heavily in the Democratic primary?
wondering why put Delaware as a more likely pick up than Cao. Don’t get me wrong we will win both, but La seems much easier, despite Cao as the incumbent.
Also I selected 0-5, simply because many on your list where republicans that survived last year despite serious opposition. If they can survive in a VERY dem friendly year, then what is stopping them from doing in a republican friendly year? So in my view that takes out PA-06, PA-15,WA-08, and NE-02. As for Wilson, he still leads on fundraising and honestly I think many in his district have already forgotten about his remark, and I also think many may have agreed with him. We are going to get some republican seats this year, but I don’t see it going past 5 or 6.
Also there’s gotta be a good Democratic candidate somewhere in MI-03. Maybe a Democratic mayor of one of the many municipalities is well versed in national issues.
First, how about the newly open AZ-03? While it’s certainly an uphill fight and the field isn’t very set, wouldn’t you expect that this seat will be on the top of the target list for November?
Also, how about TX-10, where granted our favored candidate dropped out in favor of our ’06 nominee Ted Ankrum. This would rank up there with “potentially competitive”, as Bill White will need to win this district if he has a shot at winning the governor’s race, and McCaul is inherently a very weak incumbent.
Is flipping AL-05 completely off the board?
How about the open SC-01, and the strong race Ketner (who’s not running this time around) ran in ’08?
Any chance that Don Young will be in trouble in either the primary or general?
Trivedi is racking up tons of endorsements from local Dem leaders and elected officials, including the Chester County Democrats today. The support for him is pretty real — despite Pike’s personal resources, he’s being badly out-classed on the ground.
I think you highlighted some important races and I couldn’t agree more with the “going on offense” idea. A few thoughts:
I would put Goyle in your second tier. He’s going to have to run an impressive campaign all the way down the stretch to win–so far, so good, but he’s not there yet.
I would replace him with Segall, who overperformed everywhere that Rogers was known (ie–Rogers’ base in Calhoun Co.) and the few places Segall was known (Montgomery and environs). With higher name rec and credibility now after a serious race, the previously-unknown Segall just needs to overperform by a few more points to win. And if he did, btw, he would still be nowhere close to the overperformance numbers that Bobby Bright pulled off in the district next door with white voters.
Another one to watch, which I would rank second-tier: MO-8, where Democrat Tommy Sowers (former Army Major, current UM-Rolla professor) is mounting the first serious challenge to Jo Ann Emerson that she’s ever had, raising way more than any previous Democrat ($179k in Q4), with $265k CoH to Emerson’s $415k CoH (Emerson has never been a prolific fundraiser, but she has kicked it into gear now–raising $319k in Q4).
Yeah, sure it’s a 62-36 McCain district, but Obama underperformed Dem Gov. Jay Nixon here by a lot. Nixon won with 52% in this CD, and didn’t score lower than 40% in any county here, while Robin Carnahan did even better and will “lead” the ballot in her high-profile Senate race in 2010.
Why Obama’s underperformance? Because local Democrats, who are Blue Dog-ish but numerous, went heavily for Hillary in the primary–it was her best showing statewide–which is highly correlated to a lackluster Obama showing in the general.
all 8 of the CA seats listed here should be redrawn for 2012 to be solid Dem. seats .. it can be easily done w/o hurting any of the current CA Dem. incumbents.
My only note would be that the Florida race, Joe Garcia was the 2008 nominee.
I agree with your assessment on where things currently lie (Although some people mentioned AZ-03 appears to be missing). My only concern is that the national environment might kill the chances of any candidates not in that top tier.
Top three are obvious. FL-25, AZ-03 are possibles with the right candidates. A very outside shot at KS-04 (shame Goyle isn’t running to replace Dennis Moore). Best chance at knocking off incumbents look like Lungren, Reichert, Gerlach, Terry, Tiberi, Paulsen, Dent in that order. Forget the rest.
My point has some differences but I like the diary.
This is my point:
1-. I think the strategy for 2010 must be basically defensive, and the Democratic Party need work very hard for keep the maximum number of incumbents and of seats open by democrats where they are good level democratic candidates and some democratic advantage, like PA-12, HI-01, CA-33, FL-17, AL-07, FL-19, WA-03, RI-01, TN-08, PA-07, AR-01 and maybe someone more.
2.- I think they are 3 districts with republican incumbents today where democrats are favored:
DE-AL open
IL-10 open
LA-02
This races are obvious targets for democratic party. In IL-10 and LA-02 would be very good improve fundraising but I think democrats should win so easily.
3.- I think can be competitive districts:
AZ-03 open
FL-25 open
FL-12 open
SC-02
PA-06
WA-08
PA-15
Give an order for this group is difficult. If J Garcia run again I think FL-25 would be competitive, and for FL-12, L Edwards need improve fundraising. FL-12 and SC-02 give until now so good polls.
4.- I think they are more democratic candidates working well, but they have hard work for end in a Toss-Up. If Democratic Party can make that, Democratic Party would lose few seats. Near all defensive races can be easier, including a big majority of the open seats with democratic incumbents today.