StephenCLE’s 2010 House Predictions – Part 5

Welcome to Part 5 of my baseline predictions for the 2010 House of Representatives elections.  In this section, I will cover my home region, the Eastern Great Lakes, which consists of Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio.  These are all fairly important states, Ohio being perhaps the pre-eminent swing state in the nation, Michigan containing a nice haul of electoral votes, and Indiana appearing to be a swing state of the future.  All three of these states have their fair share of competitive house races, particularly Ohio, so we’ll get down and dirty in the rust belt.  First though, a recap of where we’ve been so far:

Northeast – Rep +3 (Repubs pick up NH-1, NY-24, & NY-29)

Mid-Atlantic – Even (Repubs pick up PA-11 & MD-1, Dems pick up PA-6 & DE-1)

Upper South – Rep +5 (Repubs pick up VA-2, VA-5, TN-4, TN-6, & TN-8)

South Atlantic – Even (no pickups on either side)

Total so far – Rep +8

Indiana-1 – Peter Visclosky /Democrat – This district, which comprises much of northwestern Indiana and the Chicago suburban area around Gary, is rarely competitive.  Visclosky supposedly has some ethical issues that could prove problematic in the future, but I haven’t heard anything about them hurting his electoral chances as of yet.  He’s always been a great vote-getter.

District PVI – D+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Indiana-2 – Joe Donnelly/Democrat – This is a swing district in the north central part of the state that Obama carried by 9% in 2008, which was a huge swing to the left as Bush won by 12% in 2004.  Donnelly destroyed his republican challenger in 2008 by almost 40 points, but this race is expected to be much more of a battle.  The Republicans have what they think is a strong challenger in state representative Jackie Wolarski.  Having gotten into the race fairly late, Wolarski is way behind in the fundraising battle, by a count of 751k to 110k cash on hand.  This doesn’t look like a hugely serious race, but in this environment, you just never know.

District PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Indiana-3 – Mark Souder/Republican – The Fort Wayne based 3rd district covers most of northeastern Indiana, and it is very conservative in nature.  Yet this district is somewhat on the radar because of Mark Souder’s meh standing as an incumbent.  Souder was nearly swept away in 2006 as he struggled to beat physician Tom Hayhurst, but he came back strong in 2008, defeating Michael Montagano by 16%.  Hayhurst is giving it another shot in 2010, and though the fundraising numbers look unimpressive for the incumbent thus far, I feel this district is simply too conservative for Hayhurst to win in this environment.

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Indiana-4 – Open/Republican – This seat is one of the most conservative in Indiana.  The seat is open, but with two solid candidates in Indiana secretary of state  Todd Rokita and state senator Brandt Hershman running in the republican primary, it’s almost impossible to see a situation in which the democrats pick up this seat.

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Indiana-5 – Dan Burton/Republican – This is the most Republican seat in Indiana, containing many of Indianapolis’s cherry red exurbs.  Easy territory for Burton.

District PVI – R+17

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Indiana-6 – Mike Pence/Republican – One of the big republican leaders in the House, Pence won’t have any trouble retaining his seat.

District PVI – R+10

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Indiana-7 – Andre Carson/Democrat – This Indianapolis-centered district is a major democratic stronghold, one that is turning rapidly more liberal by the day, or so it seems.  Carson is safe here.  There’s talk that the Republicans might crack this district in redistricting to get rid of Carson, but honestly, I think they’d be ill-advised to do so given the blue trend throughout the state.

District PVI – D+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Indiana-8 – Open/Democrat – The 8th, which contains much of southwestern Indiana including Evansville and Terre Haute, is going to be the site of an intense open seat battle now that Brad Ellsworth has jumped into the open seat Senate race (which, incidentally, I think is the right move by Ellsworth because he has a great chance at winning).  State representative Trent Van Haaften is the likely democratic candidate, while the republican field is crowded, led by cardiologist Larry Bucshon.  At this point it’s hard to tell what’s going to happen here because of the seat just coming open in the last few days, but ultimately, I think this is going to be a very tough hold for the Democrats.

District PVI – R+8

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Pickup (11th overall)

Total National Score – Rep +9

Indiana-9 – Baron Hill/Democrat – This is going to be another difficult district for the Democrats to hold.  Baron Hill isn’t exactly beloved in the 9th, which covers much of southeastern Indiana.  The good news is, his perennial challenger, Mike Sodrel, is even more hated by the ninth’s voters.  It appears that these two could be on a crash course for yet another matchup, but he’ll have to get through a primary against lawyer Todd Young, who also worked in senator Richard Lugar’s office at one time.  Hill is a good fundraiser, but his unpopularity means this is going to be a fight.  It might come down to whether or not Sodrel makes it through the republican primary, if he does that’s a definite plus.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Hold

Michigan-1 – Bart Stupak/Democrat – Stupak’s district used to be solidly democratic, but it has trended republican since the early 90s.  Obama did win this upper  peninsula district by 2%, and Stupak is fairly well entrenched, so he shouldn’t have any problem.

District PVI – R+3

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Michigan-2 – Open/Republican – Peter Hoekstra’s run for governor of Michigan has opened up this seat, and with Obama’s strong finish here, only falling by 4 points to McCain, you’d expect the Democrats to step up here with a challenge.  But so far, only 2008 candidate Fred Johnson is in.  Meanwhile the republican field is filled with candidates that are fundraising very well, such as state senator Wayne Kuipers, former NFL player Jay Riemersma, and former state representative Bill Huizenga.  Given that, I don’t see much shot at a democratic pickup here.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Michigan-3 – Open/Republican – The retirement of Vern Ehlers has opened this seat up, but once again the democrats are suffering from a recruitment shortfall.  The Grand Rapids-based 3rd was a 49-49 tie between McCain and Obama.  At this point, there are so many candidates in the Republican primary that I can’t talk about them all, but the democratic opposition isn’t there right now.  

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Michigan-4 – Dave Camp/Republican – This is a district that like many in Michigan, shed it’s Republican leanings in 2008 and went for Obama.  But Camp is an extremely entrenched incumbent and won by 26% in 2008, so he’s safe.

District PVI – R+3

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Michigan-5 – Dale Kildee/Democrat – Kildee’s district, centered upon Flint, is a pretty easy win for Kildee, who’s well entrenched.

District PVI – D+11

Stephen’s Rating -Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Michigan-6 – Fred Upton/Republican – The Kalamazoo-based 6th in southwestern Michigan has become a partisan battleground, one that Barack Obama won by 10% over McCain.  But unfortunately for Democrats, the 6th is home to another well entrenched Republican in Fred Upton, who won re-election by 20% in 2008.  As far as I know no democrat has even stepped up to challenge Upton, which is a huge recruiting failure because Dems can’t be letting even districts like this go quietly.  

District PVI – Even

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Michigan-7 – Mark Schauer/Democrat – The south central 7th district is another formerly Republican district that has become swing territory (yeah, the Repubs are a few election cycles away from this map becoming a complete dummymander).  Schauer defeated Tim Walberg by 2% in 2008, and Walberg wants his seat back.  He’ll have to fight for it in a primary against Iraq war veteran Brian Rooney.  So far Walberg has raised 387k this cycle to Rooney’s 218k, but there is the possibility that this could be a difficult primary.  Schauer is killing it in the fundraising game, having raised 1.41 million thus far.  Looking at this district, a rural district that is usually republican-leaning (though Obama won by 6%), and Schauer’s extremely close win, you’d think this would be a republican pickup.  But the fundraising and the primary setup suggests otherwise.  This is a very tough call.  Ultimately, I think that rural districts are going to be much more susceptible to the change in the national environment than urban ones, and as such, Schauer will lose by a razor-thin margin.

District PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (12th overall)

Total National Score – Rep +10

Michigan-8 – Mike Rogers/Republican – The 8th, which contains Lansing and much of central Michigan, voted for Obama by 7%, but again, another strong, entrenched incumbent exists for the republicans as Rogers won by 16% over his dem challenger in 2008.  With the environment what it is, it’s not a great year for a challenge to Rogers.  Redistricting though could be a big problem for Rogers if  the Dems hold onto the state house, there’s just not enough territory to keep him, Upton, Camp, and maybe Walberg/Rooney safe in a compromise map.

District PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Michigan-9 – Gary Peters/Democrat – This district, containing much of Oakland County and Detroit’s northern suburbs, has moved to the left fairly quick.  Obama won by 13% here, and Gary Peters beat up on Joe Knollenberg by 9% in 2008 to win the seat.  Peters will face a challenge for sure, but like the 7th, it’s going to be a tight affair in the Republican primary.  Oakland County GOP chair Paul Welday, businessman Gene Goodman, and former state representative Andrew Razckowski are all in and all have raised over 200k thus far, though that pales in comparison with Peters’s 1.5 million.  This will definitely be a fight, but because of 2008 margin as well as geography, I think Peters is in better shape than Schauer is over in MI-7.

District PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Michigan-10 – Candice Miller/Republican – This was one of three Michigan districts that voted for McCain in 2008, and ultimately I don’t really see anybody mounting a challenge to the entrenched Miller.  

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Michigan-11 – Thad McCotter/Republican – For the democrats, this district was a missed opportunity in both 2006 and 2008 as they were unable to find a strong candidate.  It looks as though those recruitment woes are continuing in 2010, as state senator Glenn Anderson and state house speaker Andy Dillon have both passed on the race.  Civic leader and former teacher Natalie Mosher is the only declared candidate against McCotter, who won by 6% in 2008 despite Obama winning 54-45 over McCain.  

District PVI – Even

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Michigan-12 – Sandy Levin/Democrat – Now we start to get into Detroit’s inner suburbs and core, and indeed, this district is quite democratic.  Levin shouldn’t have much trouble in 2010.

District PVI – D+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Michigan-13 – Carolyn Kilpatrick/Democrat – Now we hit downtown Detroit, and this is some of the most liberal territory in the United States.  Kilpatrick I believe is facing a primary, but regardless of whether that turns into something serious or not, this seat will stay in democratic hands for sure.

District PVI – D+31

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Michigan-14 – John Conyers/Democrat – Another urban district that is extremely democratic, the most democratic district in Michigan.  Conyers is safe.

District PVI – D+34

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Michigan-15 – John Dingell/Democrat – This district is essentially a democratic vote sink in southeast Michigan, containing Detroit’s southern suburbs and liberal-leaning Ann Arbor.  Dingell is safe, and even if he were to retire at some point the dems would have no trouble holding this one.

District PVI – D+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Ohio-1 – Steve Dreihaus/Democrat – Alright, now for the big bad, buckeye state.  We begin my home sweet home in the Cincinnati area, which has been historically conservative but went for Obama by 11% in 2008, a win bolstered mostly by the district’s black constituency.  Dreihaus won by 5% over 7-term incumbent Steve Chabot, which was impressive.  Chabot is back for a rematch and boy does it look like a brawl.  Chabot has raised 704k thus far this cycle, while Driehaus is at 869k.   In a battle like this, in a district where there are essentially two extreme right wing and left wing factions and very few moderates, turnout is going to be huge.  And quite frankly, I don’t have much faith that Cincinnati’s black population, so critical to Driehaus’s 08 victory, is going to turn out in 2010.  I really like Driehaus, but I just don’t see how he wins this race.

District PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Moderate Rep Pickup (13th overall)

Total National Score – Rep +11

Ohio-2 – Jean Schmidt/Republican – Schmidt, formerly the biggest loudmouth in the house republican caucus before getting displaced by Michelle Bachmann, has survived two surprisingly strong challenges in 2006 and 2008.  In fact, the unpopular Schmidt was probably saved by the fact that democrat Victoria Wulsin and independent David Krikorian split the anti-Schmidt vote in 2008, allowing her to survive with a 45% plurality.   Not impressive at all in a district that is very republican.  Krikorian is running again, this time as a democrat, but he faces a primary challenge from Surya Yalamanchili.  In a year such as this, unpopular incumbents of all stripes should be on notice. If Krikorian wins the primary as he should, who knows, this could end up being a tight race despite the environment and the 2nd’s conservatism.  FWIW, Schmidt’s raised 480k so far this cycle to Krikorian’s 189k.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Ohio-3 – Mike Turner/Republican – Turner is intensely popular in the Dayton area, and the district leans republican anyway, so the democrats aren’t in good shape here at all.  

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Ohio-4 – Jim Jordan/Republican – Heading into the rural west of the state now, the 4th is the most republican district in Ohio, and Jordan is fairly well liked inside the district.   He should have no trouble whatsoever.  

District PVI – R+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Ohio-5 – Bob Latta/Republican – Latta, who hails from my collegiate home of Bowling Green, Ohio, is pretty much a lying scumbag cheat that lied about his primary opponents in the 2007 special election but still was elected over democrat Robin Weirauch in the general.   This district took a nice swing to the left in 2008, as Obama only lost by 8%, but it’s not exactly what I would call competitive, unfortunately.

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Ohio-6 – Charlie Wilson/Democrat – Wilson is a fairly entrenched incumbent, but his district, which runs along the Ohio river  in Ohio’s southeast, is trending republican.  It’s actually slightly conservative now according to the PVI, but the Republicans don’t have a strong challenger here.   Donald Allen, who has only 3k cash on hand, has the unenviable task of going up against the popular Wilson.  Still, because of the environment and the rightward lean in Appalachia, it’s not a lock.

District PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Ohio-7 – Steve Austria/Republican – Austria netted 58% in a 2008 open seat race in this south-central Ohio district, and I don’t really see much of a challenge being put up against him in 2010.  

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Ohio-8 – John Boehner/Republican – Ah yes, the House republican leader, fearless leader Boner…err Boehner.  Stupid spelling.  Tomato, tomatoe, it’s all the same.  Oh his re-election?  Yeah, it’s pretty much in the bag.

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Ohio-9 – Marcy Kaptur/Democrat – This district, which encompasses most of the Toledo area and the western Lake Erie coastline, is a solid democratic district.   Kaptur, who’s been around the block quite a few times, won’t have any problem here.

District PVI – D+10

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Ohio-10 – Dennis Kucinich/Democrat – Proof that there are enemies within your own side as well, Kucinich has been his own party of no lately, but he’s very popular on Cleveland’s west side for reasons that I have not yet deciphered even though I’ve lived here for 22 years.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear as though the democrats plan to primary him, but thankfully, the Republican opposition isn’t there either.  Still, there is a large contingent in the 10th that hates him, so I think Generic R could put up a surprisingly good showing here.  Remember, Kucinich only got 57% in 2008, not very good.  Also, Kucinich’s fundraising has been nonexistent thus far.

District PVI – D+8

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Ohio-11 – Marcia Fudge/Democrat – This is the most democratic district in Ohio, and one of the most democratic in the nation.  No problem for Fudge, who’s practically a deity in this district anyway.

District PVI – D+32

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Ohio-12 – Patrick Tiberi/Republican – Tiberi, like Thad McCotter in MI-11, has gotten lucky and hasn’t faced much opposition the last two cycles, but his luck may be running out for two reasons.  First, this Columbus-based district is growing rapidly more democratic, and second, Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks is in the race for the democrats.  Her fundraising has been decent thus far, collecting 392k thus far, although she is still down 2-1 to Tiberi in cash on hand.  Another problem for Brooks is that she actually lives in OH-15, so she could get the carpetbagger charge thrown her way.  I’m undecided on this race because I don’t know if Tiberi is a strong incumbent based on his 2006 and 2008 performances, or if those were a result of poor Democratic opposition.  What I do know is that the national environment probably won’t be a lifesaver here because of Columbus’s rapid turn to the left.

District PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Ohio-13 – Betty Sutton/Democrat – We now reach my home district, OH-13, where within the last week or so a strong race is shaping up.  Republican Tom Ganley’s entry into the race has spiced this one up for Sutton, who is a very popular incumbent.  She’s not really been tested like this though.  Her fundraising of 365k so far is decent, but actually puts her at a disadvantage against the self-funding Ganley.  Ganley has the same problem Paula Brooks has though, as he actually lives in OH-10, so the carpetbagger charge will probably be lobbed at him too.  Ultimately, this is a suburban district that leans democratic according to the PVI, and with Sutton’s popularity, I would find it very hard to imagine her losing.  Maybe I’m biased because this is ground zero for me, but Ganley has an uphill climb despite the money advantage.  

District PVI – D+5

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Ohio-14 – Steve LaTourette/Republican – I will always have respect for this man as he once took my 8th grade class onto the floor of the House or Representatives when we went to D.C. in 2001.  He’s a fairly entrenched incumbent too, as he defeated his democratic challenger by 20 points in 2008 while Obama and McCain fought to a virtual draw here.  He’s in good shape for another term.  

District PVI – R+3

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Ohio-15 – Mary Kilroy/Democrat – Now comes a race that has the look of a real conundrum.  Mary Kilroy defeated Steve Stivers in a razor close 46-45 plurality outcome, a race that really puts her in almost an identical position to Jean Schmidt in OH-2.  Like Schmidt, it seems as if Kilroy has some likeability issues, because she underperformed Obama by 8%, most all of that going to the independent candidate(s).  Maybe that’s why she has spent 414k of her 1.1 million already in an attempt to drive up her favorables.  Stivers is back for another run at the seat, and he’s fundraised very well so far, only trailing Kilroy by about 200k in cash on hand at the moment.  OH-15 is a tough district to understand for 2010, because it is trending in the democratic direction as a whole, but is laden with student voters as well (Ohio State University is in OH-15), who may not turn as well in 2010. Then there’s one more factor, the presence of constitution party (ie: teabagger) David Ryon, which will almost certainly take votes away from Stivers.   Geez, after all that, how do I make a prediction.  I think without the independent candidate in this race, Kilroy would be in big trouble.  But with that factor in play, I’m on pins and needles, but by the smallest of margins, I think Kilroy makes it through.  Ridiculous race in the capital.

District PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Hold

Ohio-16 – John Boccieri/Democrat – This district, which consists of Cleveland’s southern suburbs and exurbs, was Republican territory for a long time, but Boccieri changed that when he beat Kirk Schuring by 11% in a 2008 open seat race.  That was big, as McCain edged Obama by a 2% margin here.  Former mayor and accountant Jim Renacci is the big favorite for the Republican nomination here, and he’s fundraised pretty well, collecting 414k to Boccieri’s 824k.  Assuming Renacci doesn’t get pulled down in the primary, which is unlikely, this is likely to be a good fight.  I think Boccieri is a rising star in the democratic party though, as he’s a great campaigner.  The environment will make this one tough, but I like Boccieri to retain.

District PVI – R+4

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Ohio-17 – Timothy Ryan/Democrat – The Youngstown based 17th is one of the few democratic strongholds in the state, and Ryan is pretty well liked by his constituency.  The only potential reason to pay attention to OH-17 is the rumor that former representative James Traficant may run as an independent.  Good luck with that James.

District PVI – D+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Ohio-18 – Zach Space/Democrat – Space was swept into this normally conservative seat in 2006 thanks to the infamous “coingate” scandal that erupted on the previous incumbent.  He’s won both of his races by big margins, but 2010 will be a different animal given the environment.  The good news for Space is twofold though, first he’s on a fundraising tear at 1.31 million, and second, the republican primary looks like its going to be a crowded and potentially crushing affair.  State senator Bob Gibbs appears to be the slight favorite, but former state agriculture director Fred Dailey, and lawyer Jeanette Moll are also in the race and very capable.  All three will have an uphill climb against Space, who is popular in his district, but it will be a good race.  Space’s money advantage could be decisive though.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Region Recap – The Eastern Great Lakes is a region worth watching, one that could be potentially tough for the Democrats.  In a worst case scenario, the Republicans could pick up 6-7 seats in this region, but in a best case scenario, the Dems might not lose any and might even have a shot at a few pickups, like OH-2 and OH-12.  I give the Republicans three pickups here, IN-8, MI-7, and OH-1, bringing them 13 total pickups and a national score thus far of Republican +11 as we hit the halfway point of this journey.

Next stop…The Deep South Gulf