Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – May 2010 Edition

While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends. I also added state legislative seats that are open this year in which the incumbent is not term-limited.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
38.41%
39.15%
R+0.74
O+0.5
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.72%
41.46%
R+5.74
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.39%
39.42%
R+2.03
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.55%
40.13%
R+4.58
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.33%
42.75%
R+8.42
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
37.76%
41.55%
R+3.79
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.25%
44.44%
R+15.19
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.49%
40.23%
R+8.74
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/14 Republicans/1 Vacant, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 49 Democrats/29 Republicans/1 Independent (who is term-limited)/1 Vacant (Dem seat which will be filled before Election Day), with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3. Incumbents running for reelection are italicized.

SENATE

Republicans (6)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
32.57%
43.77%
R+12.20
M+11.8
SD-12
Jeff Denham
49.85%
31.47%
D+18.38
O+17.6
SD-14
Dave Cogdill
34.06%
46.91%
R+12.85
M+13.2
SD-15
Vacant
40.78%
34.50%
D+6.28
O+20.3
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.63%
47.31%
R+15.68
M+23.1
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
29.03%
45.81%
R+16.78
M+14.2

Democrats (6)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-02
Pat Wiggins
49.76%
24.40%
D+15.36
O+39.9
SD-16
Dean Florez
50.63%
31.84%
D+18.79
O+19.5
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.58%
14.61%
D+43.97
O+58.7
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.17%
21.13%
D+32.04
O+41.3
SD-34
Lou Correa
44.25%
32.73%
D+11.52
O+16.8
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.63%
28.91%
D+17.72
O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (19)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.34%
39.78%
R+5.44
M+1.6
AD-05
Roger Niello
38.81%
38.30%
D+0.51
O+4.2
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
37.51%
41.42%
R+3.91
M+7.9
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.71%
38.57%
D+4.14
O+4.4
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
45.87%
36.18%
D+9.69
O+3.9
AD-32
Jean Fuller
31.06%
48.95%
R+17.89
M+26.7
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.70%
40.74%
R+5.04
O+1.4
AD-36
Steve Knight
38.95%
39.07%
R+0.12
O+0.8
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.81%
40.97%
R+5.16
O+3.7
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.77%
39.51%
R+2.74
O+4.9
AD-59
Anthony Adams
34.63%
42.93%
R+8.30
M+4.8
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.87%
40.10%
R+2.23
O+4.1
AD-64
Brian Nestande
35.68%
42.24%
R+5.56
O+1.8
AD-65
Paul Cook
36.62%
41.44%
R+4.82
M+4.1
AD-68
Van Tran
32.67%
40.91%
R+8.24
M+2.9
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.02%
42.99%
R+12.97
O+3.9
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.98%
41.60%
R+10.62
O+2.2
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.87%
39.84%
R+8.97
O+4.1
AD-77
Joel Anderson
30.92%
43.75%
R+12.83
M+13.0

Democrats (19)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.75%
23.42%
D+29.33
O+43.3
AD-09
Dave Jones
55.94%
19.80%
D+36.14
O+49.0
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.97%
39.03%
D+0.94
O+4.0
AD-11
Tom Torlakson
53.91%
21.78%
D+32.13
O+41.2
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.65%
35.65%
D+5.00
O+16.9
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.63%
19.89%
D+28.74
O+42.3
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.55%
26.25%
D+21.30
O+45.8
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.34%
18.69%
D+32.65
O+44.4
AD-28
Anna Caballero
55.39%
23.31%
D+32.08
O+38.3
AD-31
Juan Arambula
50.88%
32.08%
D+18.80
O+26.1
AD-35
Pedro Nava
47.79%
27.96%
D+19.83
O+35.6
AD-45
Kevin de León
58.83%
12.84%
D+45.99
O+63.6
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.73%
11.20%
D+53.53
O+71.9
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.48%
16.40%
D+45.08
O+55.9
AD-57
Ed Hernandez
51.14%
25.19%
D+25.95
O+34.4
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
42.24%
26.81%
D+15.43
O+34.4
AD-78
Martin Block
43.52%
30.78%
D+12.74
O+21.8
AD-79
Mary Salas
48.47%
23.91%
D+24.56
O+31.6
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.41%
35.39%
D+10.02
O+20.7

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – Post-Filing Deadline Edition

With the filing deadline passed, we are beginning to see how the fields are shaping up for the 2010 elections in California. While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

Breaking news: We now have a registration advantage in Assembly District 5 and are closing in on CA-03!

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
38.46%
39.04%
R+0.58
O+0.5
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.78%
41.53%
R+5.75
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.42%
39.58%
R+2.16
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.64%
40.15%
R+4.51
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.67%
42.47%
R+7.80
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
38.02%
41.50%
R+3.48
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.36%
44.36%
R+15.00
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.33%
39.91%
R+8.58
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 49 Democrats/29 Republicans/1 Independent (who is term-limited)/1 Vacant (Dem seat which will be filled before Election Day), with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
32.78%
43.83%
R+11.05
M+11.8
SD-12
Jeff Denham
49.13%
32.03%
D+17.10
O+17.6
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.76%
47.36%
R+15.60
M+23.1
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.97%
45.60%
R+16.63
M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-16
Dean Florez
50.41%
32.00%
D+18.41
O+19.5
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.91%
14.39%
D+43.52
O+58.7
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.53%
20.72%
D+32.81
O+41.3
SD-34
Lou Correa
44.22%
32.49%
D+11.73
O+16.8
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.47%
28.84%
D+17.63
O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.52%
39.91%
R+5.39
M+1.6
AD-05
Roger Niello
38.97%
38.05%
D+0.92
O+4.2
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
37.35%
41.70%
R+4.35
M+7.9
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.35%
38.88%
D+3.47
O+4.4
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.12%
36.12%
D+10.00
O+3.9
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.89%
40.47%
R+4.58
O+1.4
AD-36
Steve Knight
38.92%
39.29%
R+0.37
O+0.8
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.87%
41.04%
R+5.17
O+3.7
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.83%
39.62%
R+2.79
O+4.9
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.96%
40.01%
R+2.05
O+4.1
AD-64
Brian Nestande
36.08%
41.95%
R+5.87
O+1.8
AD-65
Paul Cook
36.91%
41.29%
R+4.38
M+4.1
AD-68
Van Tran
32.78%
40.78%
R+8.00
M+2.9
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.12%
42.93%
R+12.81
O+3.9
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.88%
41.17%
R+10.29
O+2.2
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.64%
39.58%
R+8.94
O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.94%
23.47%
D+29.47
O+43.3
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.92%
18.55%
D+38.37
O+49.0
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.41%
39.18%
D+0.23
O+4.0
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.65%
35.70%
D+4.95
O+16.9
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.74%
19.90%
D+28.84
O+42.3
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.61%
26.40%
D+21.21
O+45.8
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.59%
18.60%
D+32.99
O+44.4
AD-31
Juan Arambula
50.40%
32.35%
D+18.05
O+26.1
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.03%
27.56%
D+20.47
O+35.6
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.89%
11.14%
D+53.75
O+71.9
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.99%
15.82%
D+46.17
O+55.9
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.94%
26.52%
D+15.42
O+34.4
AD-78
Martin Block
42.97%
30.97%
D+12.00
O+21.8
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.74%
35.25%
D+10.49
O+20.7

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – May 2009 Special Election Edition

With the release of the new registration numbers, and a couple of special elections just around the corner, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts, as well as the eight Obama-Republican districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each district.

Breaking news: We now have a (albeit slight) registration advantage in AD-10!

And an edit: I am including CA-04 in the list because of McClintock’s less-than-1% win, even though the presidential race and registration gap are not particularly close.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
37.73%
39.58%
R+1.85
O+0.5
CA-04
Tom McClintock
31.14%
45.83%
R+14.69
M+10.1
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.83%
41.82%
R+5.99
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.77%
39.29%
R+1.52
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.67%
40.50%
R+4.83
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.63%
42.40%
R+7.77
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
37.81%
42.08%
R+4.27
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.40%
44.77%
R+15.37
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.40%
40.27%
R+8.87
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
33.02%
44.12%
R+11.09
M+11.8
SD-12
Jeff Denham
47.60%
32.94%
D+14.66
O+17.6
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.88%
47.62%
R+15.74
M+23.1
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.94%
46.06%
R+17.12
M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-16
Dean Florez
49.59%
33.10%
D+16.49
O+19.5
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
59.01%
14.66%
D+44.35
O+58.7
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.63%
21.04%
D+32.59
O+41.3
SD-34
Lou Correa
42.84%
33.45%
D+9.39
O+16.8
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.57%
29.50%
D+17.07
O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.80%
40.25%
R+5.45
M+1.6
AD-05
Roger Niello
37.90%
38.77%
R+0.87
O+4.2
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
36.81%
42.32%
R+5.51
M+7.9
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.06%
39.23%
D+2.82
O+4.4
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.28%
36.59%
D+9.69
O+3.9
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.92%
40.69%
R+4.77
O+1.4
AD-36
Steve Knight
39.69%
38.51%
D+1.18
O+0.8
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.87%
41.34%
R+5.47
O+3.7
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.85%
39.91%
R+3.06
O+4.9
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
38.00%
40.37%
R+2.37
O+4.1
AD-64
Brian Nestande
35.96%
41.99%
R+6.03
O+1.8
AD-65
Paul Cook
36.82%
41.64%
R+4.82
M+4.1
AD-68
Van Tran
32.80%
41.16%
R+8.36
M+2.9
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.20%
43.36%
R+13.16
O+3.9
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.93%
41.58%
R+10.65
O+2.2
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.72%
39.80%
R+9.08
O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.80%
23.71%
D+29.09
O+43.3
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.66%
18.67%
D+37.99
O+49.0
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.33%
39.32%
D+0.01
O+4.0
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.61%
36.04%
D+4.57
O+16.9
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.61%
20.17%
D+28.44
O+42.3
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.27%
26.75%
D+20.52
O+45.8
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.22%
18.93%
D+32.29
O+44.4
AD-31
Juan Arambula
49.08%
33.78%
D+15.80
O+26.1
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.22%
27.88%
D+20.34
O+35.6
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.92%
11.25%
D+53.67
O+71.9
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
62.00%
16.13%
D+45.87
O+55.9
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.94%
26.85%
D+15.09
O+34.4
AD-78
Martin Block
43.08%
31.46%
D+11.62
O+21.8
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.38%
36.29%
D+9.09
O+20.7

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25

(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65

(V) Other open seat: 68

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – April 2009 edition

With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each districts.

I am also tacking on the eight districts that are our top targets in 2010: CA-03, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-50.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
37.72%
39.63%
R+1.91
O+0.5
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.84%
41.88%
R+6.04
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.72%
39.35%
R+1.63
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.64%
40.56%
R+4.92
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.70%
42.38%
R+7.68
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
37.97%
41.96%
R+3.99
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.41%
44.87%
R+15.46
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.38%
40.36%
R+8.98
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
33.05%
44.10%
R+11.05
M+11.8
SD-12
Jeff Denham
47.46%
33.09%
D+14.37
O+17.6
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.91%
47.58%
R+15.67
M+23.1
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.94%
46.13%
R+17.19
M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-16
Dean Florez
49.61%
33.15%
D+16.46
O+19.5
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.98%
14.74%
D+44.24
O+58.7
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.62%
21.13%
D+32.49
O+41.3
SD-34
Lou Correa
42.82%
33.58%
D+9.24
O+16.8
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.59%
29.65%
D+16.94
O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.81%
40.15%
R+5.34
M+1.6
AD-05
Roger Niello
37.93%
38.80%
R+0.87
O+4.2
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
36.84%
42.30%
R+5.46
M+7.9
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.04%
39.22%
D+2.82
O+4.4
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.31%
36.66%
D+9.65
O+3.9
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.91%
40.77%
R+4.86
O+1.4
AD-36
Steve Knight
39.56%
38.65%
D+0.91
O+0.8
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.86%
41.40%
R+5.54
O+3.7
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.84%
40.02%
R+3.18
O+4.9
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.90%
40.35%
R+2.45
O+4.1
AD-64
Brian Nestande
36.11%
41.83%
R+5.72
O+1.8
AD-65
Paul Cook
37.14%
41.08%
R+3.94
M+4.1
AD-68
Van Tran
32.82%
41.25%
R+8.43
M+2.9
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.19%
43.49%
R+13.30
O+3.9
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.89%
41.68%
R+10.79
O+2.2
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.71%
39.88%
R+9.17
O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.81%
23.72%
D+29.09
O+43.3
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.64%
18.71%
D+37.93
O+49.0
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.32%
39.39%
R+0.07
O+4.0
AD-11
Tom Torlakson
54.23%
22.06%
D+32.17
O+41.2
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.60%
36.09%
D+4.51
O+16.9
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.65%
20.17%
D+18.48
O+42.3
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.22%
26.83%
D+20.39
O+45.8
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.28%
18.96%
D+32.32
O+44.4
AD-31
Juan Arambula
49.07%
33.84%
D+15.23
O+26.1
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.24%
27.95%
D+20.29
O+35.6
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.93%
11.27%
D+53.66
O+71.9
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.92%
16.21%
D+45.71
O+55.9
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.96%
26.89%
D+15.07
O+34.4
AD-78
Martin Block
43.09%
31.54%
D+11.55
O+21.8
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.33%
36.49%
D+8.84
O+20.7

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25

(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65

(V) Other open seat: 68

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – March 2009 edition

With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. With the district results that I found (Senate here and Assembly here), I put in a new column, showing the margin of the 2008 presidential winner in each district, so we can clearly see what our biggest targets are.

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
33.07%
44.12%
R+11.05
M+12.80
SD-12
Jeff Denham
47.46%
33.14%
D+14.32
O+17.64
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.93%
47.63%
R+15.70
M+15.00
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.96%
46.07%
R+17.11
M+14.16

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-16
Dean Florez
49.67%
33.14%
D+16.53
O+21.35
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.98%
14.77%
D+44.21
O+58.53
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.62%
21.16%
D+32.46
O+41.34
SD-34
Lou Correa
42.68%
34.05%
D+8.63
O+16.81
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.50%
29.66%
D+15.84
O+26.64

Assembly numbers are over the flip…

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.83%
40.20%
R+5.37
M+1.60
AD-05
Roger Niello
37.94%
38.83%
R+0.89
O+4.24
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
36.84%
42.32%
R+5.48
M+7.90
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.03%
39.27%
D+2.76
O+4.11
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.45%
36.56%
D+9.89
O+4.39
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.86%
40.69%
R+4.83
O+1.39
AD-36
Steve Knight
39.55%
38.72%
D+0.83
O+0.66
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.84%
41.46%
R+5.62
O+3.73
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.84%
40.05%
R+3.21
O+4.86
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.85%
40.44%
R+2.59
O+4.09
AD-64
Brian Nestande
36.26%
41.61%
R+5.35
O+1.79
AD-65
Paul Cook
37.14%
41.06%
R+3.92
M+4.12
AD-68
Van Tran
32.72%
41.61%
R+8.89
M+2.95
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.12%
43.73%
R+13.61
O+3.93
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.88%
41.62%
R+10.74
O+2.16
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.74%
39.81%
R+9.07
O+4.05

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.84%
23.73%
D+29.11
O+43.31
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.63%
18.74%
D+37.89
O+49.15
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.32%
39.43%
R+0.11
O+3.91
AD-11
Tom Torlakson
54.24%
22.10%
D+32.14
O+40.90
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.59%
36.14%
D+4.45
O+16.55
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.62%
20.19%
D+18.43
O+42.28
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.13%
26.81%
D+20.32
O+45.90
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.36%
18.97%
D+32.39
O+44.45
AD-31
Juan Arambula
49.04%
33.92%
D+15.12
O+24.81
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.21%
27.95%
D+20.26
O+35.46
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.95%
11.28%
D+53.67
O+71.90
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.91%
16.23%
D+45.68
O+55.86
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.92%
26.76%
D+15.16
O+34.34
AD-78
Martin Block
43.01%
31.51%
D+11.50
O+11.82
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.25%
36.62%
D+8.63
O+20.68

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65 (There are no open seats in these districts.)

(IV) Other open seats: 25, 68

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010

It is never too early to look ahead to the next election, and I am doing that with my handy dandy registration tables for the State Senate and State Assembly districts with term-limited and possibly vulnerable incumbents (in italics). Without further Apu, here are the numbers.

Cross-posted at Calitics, Democracy for California, and my blog.

And I might as well use this diary to promote my new 2010 California Race Tracker website. Anyone is free to join in and contribute information that will be useful for us going into the 2010 elections.

SENATE

8 incumbents are term-limited in 2010, 4 Republicans and 4 Democrats. I am also watching Lou Correa in the 34th district due to his razor-thin win in 2006 after recounts. The 12th district has the best chance of flipping to us, though if we work very hard in the 4th, like Charlie Brown in CA-04, we may have a chance here too.

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
33.07%
44.18%
R+11.11
SD-12
Jeff Denham
47.33%
33.41%
D+13.92
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.81%
47.82%
R+16.01
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.88%
46.37%
R+17.49

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
SD-16
Dean Florez
49.60%
33.39%
D+16.21
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.88%
14.97%
D+43.91
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.40%
21.44%
D+31.96
SD-34
Lou Correa
42.53%
34.35%
D+8.18
SD-40
Denise Moreno Ducheny
46.25%
30.12%
D+16.13

ASSEMBLY

17 Assemblymembers are term-limited in 2010, 6 Republicans and 11 Democrats. I am also including the 6 new freshmen (2 GOP, 4 DEM) that were elected by close margins, and 6 reelected Assemblymembers (all GOP) that won by close margins (though Nestande in the 64th was unopposed, the GOP registration advantage is small). The numbers are over the flip.

Republicans (14)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.82%
40.26%
R+5.44
AD-05
Roger Niello
37.77%
39.00%
R+1.23
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
36.88%
42.39%
R+5.51
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
41.90%
39.59%
D+2.31
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.48%
36.67%
D+9.81
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.93%
40.74%
R+4.81
AD-36
Steve Knight
39.20%
39.25%
R+0.05
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.76%
41.71%
R+5.95
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.65%
40.41%
R+3.76
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.69%
40.80%
R+3.11
AD-64
Brian Nestande
36.04%
42.02%
R+5.98
AD-65
Paul Cook
36.93%
41.47%
R+4.54
AD-68
Van Tran
32.63%
41.90%
R+9.27
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.05%
43.99%
R+13.94

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.72%
24.00%
D+28.72
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.53%
18.92%
D+37.61
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.18%
39.61%
R+0.43
AD-11
Tom Torlakson
53.81%
22.54%
D+31.27
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.41%
36.45%
D+3.96
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.53%
20.37%
D+18.16
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.17%
26.91%
D+20.26
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.42%
19.18%
D+32.24
AD-31
Juan Arambula
48.90%
34.28%
D+14.62
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.05%
28.19%
D+19.86
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.96%
11.36%
D+53.60
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.62%
16.59%
D+45.03
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.92%
27.01%
D+14.91
AD-78
Martin Block
42.86%
31.89%
D+10.97
AD-80
Manuel Perez
44.99%
37.17%
D+7.82

Since it’s never too early to prepare for the next election, we should get started on targeting vulnerable districts right away. The 26th and 30th were close heartbreakers for us, but hopefully with more support from the CDP and national Dems, we can take them back.

The 37th was another close race, but fortunately Audra Strickland is term-limited out, so we have a better chance at a pickup here, and can strengthen our presence in this part of the state and hopefully take down Audra’s husband Tony in 2012. (I know the districts will have new configurations in 2012, and I intend to map out redistricting possibilities for the next decade later.)

Other areas ripe for the picking include CA-33 on the Central Coast, and CA-63 in my home turf in the Inland Empire. My normally Republican-leaning hometown of Rancho Cucamonga is in the 63rd Assembly District and voted for Obama this year, so we have a real chance of making big gains in this part of the Southland. I can’t wait for 2010!

California Race Chart (Part 2 of 3: House/State Legislature Races A)

Here is Part 2 of my analysis of this fall’s elections in California, which will cover the races for the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly seats in Northern and Central California. Part 3 tomorrow will cover the races in Southern California.

Here is the link to Part 1, which covered the presidential race and the 12 ballot measures: http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Cross-posted at Calitics: http://calitics.com/showDiary….

Incumbents are in boldface. In the case of open seats, the party of the retiring incumbent is listed first without boldface.

U.S. HOUSE (Composition: 34 Democrats, 19 Republicans)

Safe:

CA-01 (North Coast): Thompson (D)

CA-02 (Northern Sacramento Valley): Herger (R)

CA-03 (Sacramento suburbs): Lungren (R)

CA-05 (Sacramento): Matsui (D)

CA-06 (Northern SF Bay): Woolsey (D)

CA-07 (Northeast SF Bay): George Miller (D)

CA-08 (San Francisco): Pelosi (D)

CA-09 (Berkeley, Oakland): Lee (D)

CA-10 (Inner East SF Bay): Tauscher (D)

CA-12 (Lower SF Peninsula): Speier (D)

CA-13 (Southern East Bay): Stark (D)

CA-14 (Silicon Valley): Eshoo (D)

CA-15 (Santa Clara, Cupertino): Honda (D)

CA-16 (San Jose): Lofgren (D)

CA-17 (Northern Central Coast): Farr (D)

CA-18 (Upper Central Valley): Cardoza (D) – unopposed

CA-19 (Yosemite, part of Fresno): Radanovich (R) – unopposed

CA-20 (Fresno, part of Bakersfield): Costa (D)

CA-21 (Tulare): Nunes (R)

Now for the races to watch:

CA-04 (Northeast, including Tahoe): Tom McClintock (R) vs. Charlie Brown (D), Paul Netto (L) – vacated by John Doolittle (R)

Registration: R+16.00%

Profile: As a lot of people already know by now, there is a high-profile battle going on here to replace the disgraced John Do-Little (R). Fighting Democrat Charlie Brown came within a few percentage points of knocking off Do-Little in 2006 and is back again, this time facing carpetbagger Tom McClintock, whose State Senate district is 400 miles away from the 4th. In such a strongly Republican district, especially in a Presidential year, one would normally give the Republican a leg up, but Charlie has been doing fantastically, maintaining a huge cash advantage over McClintock, and polls have shown him competitive.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up

CA-11 (San Joaquin County and parts of East Bay): Jerry McNerney (D) vs. Dean Andal (R)

Registration: R+2.41%

Profile: This was a pickup for us in the House in 2006, and the GOP hoped to make it one of their highest priorities, pinning their hopes on Andal. Well, now it looks like those hopes have fizzled. Andal is now in hot water over negotiations for a new San Joaquin Delta College campus ( http://www.capitolweekly.net/a… ), and the claims are coming from evil liberals registered Republican and former Andal supporter Ted Simas, a SJDC board member. The NRCC has also pulled funding from the district, meaning that we can breathe a little easier here and devote funds to CA-04 and elsewhere.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Lean McNerney

STATE SENATE (District size: ~846,791) (Composition: 25 Democrats, 15 Republicans)

Safe:

SD-01 (Northeast, including Tahoe and Mother Lode): Dave Cox (R)

SD-03 (North Bay, part of San Francisco): Mark Leno (D) – vacated by Carole Migden (D)

SD-05 (Sacramento River Delta): Lois Wolk (D) – vacated by Michael Machado (D)

SD-07 (Most of Contra Costa County): Mark DeSaulnier (D) – vacated by Tom Torlakson (D)

SD-09 (Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond): Loni Hancock (D) – vacated by Don Perata (D)

SD-11 (Silicon Valley, most of Santa Cruz County): Joe Simitian (D)

SD-13 (Most of Santa Clara County including San Jose): Elaine Alquist (D)

SD-15 (Central Coast, part of Santa Clara County): Abel Maldonado (R)

STATE ASSEMBLY (District size: ~423,388) (Composition: 48 Democrats, 32 Republicans)

AD-01 (North Coast): Wesley Chesbro (D) – vacated by Patty Berg (D)

AD-02 (Sacramento Valley): Jim Nielsen (R) – vacated by Doug LaMalfa (R)

AD-03 (Northeast): Dan Logue (R) – vacated by Rick Keene (R)

AD-04 (Tahoe): Ted Gaines (R) – unopposed

AD-05 (Northern Sacramento suburbs): Roger Niello (R)

AD-06 (North Bay): Jared Huffman (D)

AD-07 (Napa Valley): Noreen Evans (D)

AD-08 (Sacramento River Delta): Mariko Yamada (D) – vacated by Lois Wolk (D)

AD-09 (Sacramento): Dave Jones (D)

AD-11 (Northern Contra Costa County): Tom Torlakson (D) – vacated by Mark DeSaulnier (D)

AD-12 (Western San Francisco): Fiona Ma (D)

AD-13 (Eastern San Francisco): Tom Ammiano (D) – vacated by Mark Leno (D)

AD-14 (Berkeley, Richmond): Nancy Skinner (D) – unopposed – vacated by Loni Hancock (D)

AD-16 (Oakland): Sandré Swanson (D)

AD-17 (Stockton, Merced): Cathleen Galgiani (D)

AD-18 (Eastern Oakland suburbs): Mary Hayashi (D)

AD-19 (Most of San Mateo County): Gerald Hill (D) – vacated by Gene Mullin (D)

AD-20 (Southern East Bay): Alberto Torrico (D)

AD-21 (Silicon Valley): Ira Ruskin (D)

AD-22 (Western San Jose): Paul Fong (D) – vacated by Sally Lieber (D)

AD-23 (Downtown San Jose): Joe Coto (D)

AD-24 (Southern San Jose): Jim Beall (D)

AD-25 (Mother Lode, Yosemite): Tom Berryhill (R)

AD-27 (Northern Central Coast): Bill Monning (D) – vacated by John Laird (D)

AD-28 (Inner Central Coast region): Anna Caballero – unopposed

AD-29 (Eastern Fresno): Michael Villines (R)

AD-31 (Western Fresno): Juan Arambula (D)

AD-32 (Bakersfield): Jean Fuller (R)

AD-33 (Part of southern Central Coast): Sam Blakeslee (R)

AD-34 (Big Empty): Connie Conway (R) – vacated by Bill Maze (R)

Now, for the races to watch:

AD-10 (Eastern Sacramento suburbs): Jack Sieglock (R) vs. Alyson Huber (D), Janice Bonser (L) – vacated by Alan Nakanishi (R)

Registration: R+1.97%

Profile: You know you’re in trouble when the interior voice of your own party is voicing great concern over a seat, in this case, the California Yacht Republican Party’s voice Jon Fleischman being concerned over the 10th Assembly district ( http://calitics.com/showDiary…. ). What was once a 6% Republican advantage in registration has shrunk to a 2% advantage, and Sieglock had a much tougher time in the primary than Huber. If we have a really good GOTV, we can count on wins here and elsewhere to put us at 2/3!

9/18/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up

AD-15 (Inner East Bay): Abram Wilson (R) vs. Joan Buchanan (D) – vacated by Guy Houston (R)

Registration: D+1.31%

Profile: Like the 10th, the Republican candidate in this one survived a really tough primary while the Democrat cruised through and is sitting pretty on a comfortable cash advantage. With a well-oiled turnout machine, we can win here, and if we do, we will shut out Republicans in every legislative seat in the Bay Area! A recent poll has Buchanan in the lead.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Lean Buchanan

AD-26 (Stockton, Modesto): Bill Berryhill (R) vs. John Eisenhut (D) – vacated by Greg Aghazarian (R)

Registration: D+1.99%

Profile: While this district has trended blue also, it will be a bit more competitive for us than the 10th and 15th. Eisenhut is a local almond farmer and fits the district well, while Berryhill is counting on name ID from his brother Tom in the neighboring 25th district and his father, who represented this area in the state legislature in the 1960s, to win.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up

AD-30 (Southern San Joaquin Valley): Fran Florez (D) vs. Danny Gilmore (R) – vacated by Nicole Parra (D)

Registration: D+9.15%

Profile: Normally this district is not competitive, but the polarizing Yacht Dog Parra made the past 3 elections in this district closer than they should have been. Fortunately, she’s on her way out, and Shafter Mayor Fran Florez, Sen. Dean Florez’s mother, looks to be in a comfortable position to keep this seat in our column. The fact that voters in the Central Valley are fleeing the GOP ( http://www.istockanalyst.com/a… ) further adds to Florez’s advantage.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Likely Florez

Well, that’s it for the NorCal and CenCal races. Tomorrow, look for an analysis of the SoCal races, as well as a summary of the races we need to zero in on to win this fall.

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2008

Also posted on my blog, Calitics, Democracy for California, and DU.

Many in the California Democratic Party circles may not know this, but in 2008 there is a real possibility of gaining 2/3 majorities in the State Senate and State Assembly. The fact that a two-thirds vote in both houses is required to pass the annual budget and to override gubernatorial vetoes could serve as a compelling reason to vote against the term-limits initiative.

Using my extraordinary math, statistics, and HTML skills, below I included with each list of incumbents are the margins that each district voted in the 2002 Governor’s race (2002G: Davis vs. Simon), 2004 Presidential race (2004P: Kerry vs. Bush), 2004 Senate race (2004S: Boxer vs. Jones), and 2006 Senate race (2006S: Feinstein vs. Mountjoy) and the average of these and the registration margins, which I will call the Partisan Factor (PF).

Check out the discussion here.

Numbers are below the flip:

ASSEMBLY

23 Assemblymembers are term-limited in 2008, 12 Republicans and 11 Democrats. Here are the districts which will be open, the term-limited incumbent (for reference) and the registration statistics.

Republican-Held Seats (12)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
2
Doug La Malfa
31.76%
47.44%
R+15.68
3
Rick Keene
33.41%
41.75%
R+8.34
10
Alan Nakanishi
37.80%
41.83%
R+3.97
15
Guy Houston
38.26%
39.51%
R+1.25
26
Greg Aghazarian
40.84%
41.99%
R+1.15
34
Bill Maze
32.89%
46.88%
R+13.99
36
Sharon Runner
36.16%
42.77%
R+6.61
64
John Benoit
33.49%
45.45%
R+7.94
71
Todd Spitzer
26.55%
52.07%
R+25.52
75
George Plescia
28.73%
43.15%
R+14.42
78
Shirley Horton
40.92%
33.99%
D+6.93
80
Bonnie Garcia
45.59%
36.97%
D+8.62

District 2002G
2004P
2004S 2006S PF
2
R+30.0
R+34.1
R+23.7
R+16.7
R+24.0
3
R+31.5
R+14.7
R+7.3
R+0.2
R+12.4
10
R+16.6
R+14.0
R+0.7
D+6.2
R+5.8
15
R+4.5
D+0.1
D+7.8
D+22.3
D+4.9
26
R+5.7
R+15.6
D+1.0
D+6.3
R+3.0
34
R+26.1
R+33.6
R+20.9
R+12.6
R+21.4
36
R+26.0
R+21.9
R+5.7
D+5.4
R+11.0
64
R+15.3
R+16.6
R+1.6
D+0.7
R+8.1
71
R+33.6
R+30.2
R+19.4
R+14.4
R+24.6
75
R+19.8
R+12.7
R+0.2
D+5.6
R+8.3
78
D+2.4
D+3.2
D+20.4
D+24.2
D+11.4
80
D+8.6
D+5.2
D+19.3
D+22.4
D+12.8

Democratic-Held Seats (11)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
1
Patty Berg
44.52%
28.05%
D+16.27
8
Lois Wolk
45.52%
29.51%
D+16.01
13
Mark Leno
56.22%
9.31%
D+46.91
14
Loni Hancock
58.70%
15.04%
D+43.66
19
Gene Mullin
50.05%
22.57%
D+27.48
22
Sally Lieber
43.40%
24.25%
D+19.15
27
John Laird
48.12%
26.40%
D+21.68
30
Nicole Parra
46.45%
38.70%
D+7.75
40
Lloyd Levine
47.78%
28.12%
D+19.66
46
Fabian Núñez
63.37%
12.78%
D+50.59
52
Mervyn Dymally
67.90%
13.00%
D+54.90

District 2002G
2004P
2004S 2006S PF
1
D+10.3
D+22.4
D+26.5
D+32.5
D+21.6
8
D+8.8
D+12.5
D+22.8
D+28.8
D+17.8
13
D+53.3
D+72.2
D+73.5
D+72.9
D+63.8
14
D+43.9
D+62.8
D+61.7
D+65.6
D+55.5
19
D+28.4
D+39.8
D+44.8
D+54.4
D+39.0
22
D+26.4
D+36.1
D+40.7
D+48.5
D+34.2
27
D+20.4
D+35.0
D+36.0
D+43.8
D+31.4
30
R+2.6
R+14.7
D+3.8
D+12.9
D+1.4
40
D+11.6
D+21.9
D+35.3
D+33.7
D+24.3
46
D+60.8
D+62.7
D+72.3
D+72.3
D+63.7
52
D+70.0
D+73.5
D+79.4
D+79.9
D+71.5

SENATE

10 Senators are term-limited in 2008, 6 Democrats and 4 Republicans.

*Maldonado is not term-limited but may be vulnerable in his increasingly Democratic district.

Republican-Held Seats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
15
Abel Maldonado*
39.69%
37.14%
D+2.55
19
Tom McClintock
36.23%
40.36%
R+4.13
29
Bob Margett
32.14%
44.68%
R+12.54
33
Dick Ackerman
26.94%
50.75%
R+23.81
37
Jim Battin
34.57%
45.26%
R+10.69

District 2002G
2004P
2004S 2006S PF
15
R+2.4
D+6.4
D+11.3
D+20.6
D+7.7
19
R+7.0
R+2.0
D+7.6
D+10.6
D+1.0
29
R+19.9
R+15.2
R+1.7
R+2.2
R+10.3
33
R+31.4
R+27.2
R+14.9
R+11.6
R+21.8
37
R+13.4
R+16.6
R+0.9
D+2.2
R+7.9

Democratic-Held Seats (6)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
5
Michael Machado
45.98%
32.41%
D+13.57
7
Tom Torlakson
46.81%
30.66%
D+16.15
9
Don Perata
58.98%
13.53%
D+45.45
21
Jack Scott
45.65%
28.56%
D+17.09
23
Sheila Kuehl
50.07%
25.26%
D+24.81
25
Edward Vincent
58.87%
20.97%
D+37.90

District 2002G
2004P
2004S 2006S PF
5
D+7.7
D+8.4
D+22.2
D+27.6
D+15.9
7
D+14.5
D+22.8
D+27.2
D+39.6
D+24.1
9
D+48.2
D+63.6
D+64.5
D+66.6
D+57.7
21
D+15.0
D+27.8
D+35.9
D+37.0
D+26.6
23
D+22.6
D+31.1
D+40.8
D+45.9
D+33.0
25
D+38.7
D+45.7
D+52.9
D+53.6
D+45.8

Now here is a list of the districts with the most competitive PF’s, ranked from highest to lowest priority.

Assembly

District PF
80
D+12.8
78
D+11.4
15
D+4.9
30
D+1.4
26
R+3.0
10
R+5.8
64
R+8.1
75
R+8.3

Senate

District PF
15
D+7.7
19
D+1.0


Overall, we should target Assembly Districts 10, 15, 26, 64, 75, 78, and 80 while defending District 30, and target Senate Districts 15 and 19. If we manage to win both Senate seats, we will have 27 Senate seats, enough for a 2/3 majority. If we win the most competitive Assembly districts (10, 15, 26, 78, 80) we will have 53, just one short of 2/3. We would have to win at least one of the lesser competitive districts (64, 75) to reach 2/3 there. We will also have to defend AD-30, which may not be hard if we find a candidate less divisive than Parra.

With 2/3 in both houses, we can finally pass decent budgets without significant bickering and with sufficient funding for things like mental health facilities and public transit including high-speed rail.