With the release of the new registration numbers, and a couple of special elections just around the corner, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts, as well as the eight Obama-Republican districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each district.
Breaking news: We now have a (albeit slight) registration advantage in AD-10!
And an edit: I am including CA-04 in the list because of McClintock’s less-than-1% win, even though the presidential race and registration gap are not particularly close.
Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| CA-03 |
Dan Lungren |
37.73% |
39.58% |
R+1.85 |
O+0.5 |
| CA-04 |
Tom McClintock |
31.14% |
45.83% |
R+14.69 |
M+10.1 |
| CA-24 |
Elton Gallegly |
35.83% |
41.82% |
R+5.99 |
O+2.8 |
| CA-25 |
Buck McKeon |
37.77% |
39.29% |
R+1.52 |
O+1.1 |
| CA-26 |
David Dreier |
35.67% |
40.50% |
R+4.83 |
O+4.0 |
| CA-44 |
Ken Calvert |
34.63% |
42.40% |
R+7.77 |
O+0.9 |
| CA-45 |
Mary Bono Mack |
37.81% |
42.08% |
R+4.27 |
O+4.6 |
| CA-48 |
John Campbell |
29.40% |
44.77% |
R+15.37 |
O+0.7 |
| CA-50 |
Brian Bilbray |
31.40% |
40.27% |
R+8.87 |
O+4.2 |
Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…
Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.
SENATE
Republicans (4)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| SD-04 |
Sam Aanestad |
33.02% |
44.12% |
R+11.09 |
M+11.8 |
| SD-12 |
Jeff Denham |
47.60% |
32.94% |
D+14.66 |
O+17.6 |
| SD-18 |
Roy Ashburn |
31.88% |
47.62% |
R+15.74 |
M+23.1 |
| SD-36 |
Dennis Hollingsworth |
28.94% |
46.06% |
R+17.12 |
M+14.2 |
Democrats (5)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| SD-16 |
Dean Florez |
49.59% |
33.10% |
D+16.49 |
O+19.5 |
| SD-22 |
Gilbert Cedillo |
59.01% |
14.66% |
D+44.35 |
O+58.7 |
| SD-24 |
Gloria Romero |
53.63% |
21.04% |
D+32.59 |
O+41.3 |
| SD-34 |
Lou Correa |
42.84% |
33.45% |
D+9.39 |
O+16.8 |
| SD-40 |
Denise Ducheny |
46.57% |
29.50% |
D+17.07 |
O+25.7 |
ASSEMBLY
Republicans (16)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| AD-03 |
Dan Logue |
34.80% |
40.25% |
R+5.45 |
M+1.6 |
| AD-05 |
Roger Niello |
37.90% |
38.77% |
R+0.87 |
O+4.2 |
| AD-25 |
Tom Berryhill |
36.81% |
42.32% |
R+5.51 |
M+7.9 |
| AD-26 |
Bill Berryhill |
42.06% |
39.23% |
D+2.82 |
O+4.4 |
| AD-30 |
Danny Gilmore |
46.28% |
36.59% |
D+9.69 |
O+3.9 |
| AD-33 |
Sam Blakeslee |
35.92% |
40.69% |
R+4.77 |
O+1.4 |
| AD-36 |
Steve Knight |
39.69% |
38.51% |
D+1.18 |
O+0.8 |
| AD-37 |
Audra Strickland |
35.87% |
41.34% |
R+5.47 |
O+3.7 |
| AD-38 |
Cameron Smyth |
36.85% |
39.91% |
R+3.06 |
O+4.9 |
| AD-63 |
Bill Emmerson |
38.00% |
40.37% |
R+2.37 |
O+4.1 |
| AD-64 |
Brian Nestande |
35.96% |
41.99% |
R+6.03 |
O+1.8 |
| AD-65 |
Paul Cook |
36.82% |
41.64% |
R+4.82 |
M+4.1 |
| AD-68 |
Van Tran |
32.80% |
41.16% |
R+8.36 |
M+2.9 |
| AD-70 |
Chuck DeVore |
30.20% |
43.36% |
R+13.16 |
O+3.9 |
| AD-74 |
Martin Garrick |
30.93% |
41.58% |
R+10.65 |
O+2.2 |
| AD-75 |
Nathan Fletcher |
30.72% |
39.80% |
R+9.08 |
O+4.1 |
Democrats (15)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| AD-07 |
Noreen Evans |
52.80% |
23.71% |
D+29.09 |
O+43.3 |
| AD-09 |
Dave Jones |
56.66% |
18.67% |
D+37.99 |
O+49.0 |
| AD-10 |
Alyson Huber |
39.33% |
39.32% |
D+0.01 |
O+4.0 |
| AD-15 |
Joan Buchanan |
40.61% |
36.04% |
D+4.57 |
O+16.9 |
| AD-20 |
Alberto Torrico |
48.61% |
20.17% |
D+28.44 |
O+42.3 |
| AD-21 |
Ira Ruskin |
47.27% |
26.75% |
D+20.52 |
O+45.8 |
| AD-23 |
Joe Coto |
51.22% |
18.93% |
D+32.29 |
O+44.4 |
| AD-31 |
Juan Arambula |
49.08% |
33.78% |
D+15.80 |
O+26.1 |
| AD-35 |
Pedro Nava |
48.22% |
27.88% |
D+20.34 |
O+35.6 |
| AD-47 |
Karen Bass |
64.92% |
11.25% |
D+53.67 |
O+71.9 |
| AD-50 |
Hector De La Torre |
62.00% |
16.13% |
D+45.87 |
O+55.9 |
| AD-76 |
Lori Saldaña |
41.94% |
26.85% |
D+15.09 |
O+34.4 |
| AD-78 |
Martin Block |
43.08% |
31.46% |
D+11.62 |
O+21.8 |
| AD-80 |
Manuel Perez |
45.38% |
36.29% |
D+9.09 |
O+20.7 |
In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:
(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70
(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75
(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25
(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65
(V) Other open seat: 68
Do you expect Democratic majorities to be diluted by “compactness” requirements and the like, or do you see a potential benefit?
Do tell – I don’t see mention of any special elections in the body of the article…
Or were you referring to CA-32?