While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends. I also added state legislative seats that are open this year in which the incumbent is not term-limited.
Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| CA-03 |
Dan Lungren |
38.41% |
39.15% |
R+0.74 |
O+0.5 |
| CA-24 |
Elton Gallegly |
35.72% |
41.46% |
R+5.74 |
O+2.8 |
| CA-25 |
Buck McKeon |
37.39% |
39.42% |
R+2.03 |
O+1.1 |
| CA-26 |
David Dreier |
35.55% |
40.13% |
R+4.58 |
O+4.0 |
| CA-44 |
Ken Calvert |
34.33% |
42.75% |
R+8.42 |
O+0.9 |
| CA-45 |
Mary Bono Mack |
37.76% |
41.55% |
R+3.79 |
O+4.6 |
| CA-48 |
John Campbell |
29.25% |
44.44% |
R+15.19 |
O+0.7 |
| CA-50 |
Brian Bilbray |
31.49% |
40.23% |
R+8.74 |
O+4.2 |
Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…
Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/14 Republicans/1 Vacant, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 49 Democrats/29 Republicans/1 Independent (who is term-limited)/1 Vacant (Dem seat which will be filled before Election Day), with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3. Incumbents running for reelection are italicized.
SENATE
Republicans (6)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| SD-04 |
Sam Aanestad |
32.57% |
43.77% |
R+12.20 |
M+11.8 |
| SD-12 |
Jeff Denham |
49.85% |
31.47% |
D+18.38 |
O+17.6 |
| SD-14 |
Dave Cogdill |
34.06% |
46.91% |
R+12.85 |
M+13.2 |
| SD-15 |
Vacant |
40.78% |
34.50% |
D+6.28 |
O+20.3 |
| SD-18 |
Roy Ashburn |
31.63% |
47.31% |
R+15.68 |
M+23.1 |
| SD-36 |
Dennis Hollingsworth |
29.03% |
45.81% |
R+16.78 |
M+14.2 |
Democrats (6)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| SD-02 |
Pat Wiggins |
49.76% |
24.40% |
D+15.36 |
O+39.9 |
| SD-16 |
Dean Florez |
50.63% |
31.84% |
D+18.79 |
O+19.5 |
| SD-22 |
Gilbert Cedillo |
58.58% |
14.61% |
D+43.97 |
O+58.7 |
| SD-24 |
Gloria Romero |
53.17% |
21.13% |
D+32.04 |
O+41.3 |
| SD-34 |
Lou Correa |
44.25% |
32.73% |
D+11.52 |
O+16.8 |
| SD-40 |
Denise Ducheny |
46.63% |
28.91% |
D+17.72 |
O+25.7 |
ASSEMBLY
Republicans (19)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| AD-03 |
Dan Logue |
34.34% |
39.78% |
R+5.44 |
M+1.6 |
| AD-05 |
Roger Niello |
38.81% |
38.30% |
D+0.51 |
O+4.2 |
| AD-25 |
Tom Berryhill |
37.51% |
41.42% |
R+3.91 |
M+7.9 |
| AD-26 |
Bill Berryhill |
42.71% |
38.57% |
D+4.14 |
O+4.4 |
| AD-30 |
Danny Gilmore |
45.87% |
36.18% |
D+9.69 |
O+3.9 |
| AD-32 |
Jean Fuller |
31.06% |
48.95% |
R+17.89 |
M+26.7 |
| AD-33 |
Sam Blakeslee |
35.70% |
40.74% |
R+5.04 |
O+1.4 |
| AD-36 |
Steve Knight |
38.95% |
39.07% |
R+0.12 |
O+0.8 |
| AD-37 |
Audra Strickland |
35.81% |
40.97% |
R+5.16 |
O+3.7 |
| AD-38 |
Cameron Smyth |
36.77% |
39.51% |
R+2.74 |
O+4.9 |
| AD-59 |
Anthony Adams |
34.63% |
42.93% |
R+8.30 |
M+4.8 |
| AD-63 |
Bill Emmerson |
37.87% |
40.10% |
R+2.23 |
O+4.1 |
| AD-64 |
Brian Nestande |
35.68% |
42.24% |
R+5.56 |
O+1.8 |
| AD-65 |
Paul Cook |
36.62% |
41.44% |
R+4.82 |
M+4.1 |
| AD-68 |
Van Tran |
32.67% |
40.91% |
R+8.24 |
M+2.9 |
| AD-70 |
Chuck DeVore |
30.02% |
42.99% |
R+12.97 |
O+3.9 |
| AD-74 |
Martin Garrick |
30.98% |
41.60% |
R+10.62 |
O+2.2 |
| AD-75 |
Nathan Fletcher |
30.87% |
39.84% |
R+8.97 |
O+4.1 |
| AD-77 |
Joel Anderson |
30.92% |
43.75% |
R+12.83 |
M+13.0 |
Democrats (19)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| AD-07 |
Noreen Evans |
52.75% |
23.42% |
D+29.33 |
O+43.3 |
| AD-09 |
Dave Jones |
55.94% |
19.80% |
D+36.14 |
O+49.0 |
| AD-10 |
Alyson Huber |
39.97% |
39.03% |
D+0.94 |
O+4.0 |
| AD-11 |
Tom Torlakson |
53.91% |
21.78% |
D+32.13 |
O+41.2 |
| AD-15 |
Joan Buchanan |
40.65% |
35.65% |
D+5.00 |
O+16.9 |
| AD-20 |
Alberto Torrico |
48.63% |
19.89% |
D+28.74 |
O+42.3 |
| AD-21 |
Ira Ruskin |
47.55% |
26.25% |
D+21.30 |
O+45.8 |
| AD-23 |
Joe Coto |
51.34% |
18.69% |
D+32.65 |
O+44.4 |
| AD-28 |
Anna Caballero |
55.39% |
23.31% |
D+32.08 |
O+38.3 |
| AD-31 |
Juan Arambula |
50.88% |
32.08% |
D+18.80 |
O+26.1 |
| AD-35 |
Pedro Nava |
47.79% |
27.96% |
D+19.83 |
O+35.6 |
| AD-45 |
Kevin de León |
58.83% |
12.84% |
D+45.99 |
O+63.6 |
| AD-47 |
Karen Bass |
64.73% |
11.20% |
D+53.53 |
O+71.9 |
| AD-50 |
Hector De La Torre |
61.48% |
16.40% |
D+45.08 |
O+55.9 |
| AD-57 |
Ed Hernandez |
51.14% |
25.19% |
D+25.95 |
O+34.4 |
| AD-76 |
Lori Saldaña |
42.24% |
26.81% |
D+15.43 |
O+34.4 |
| AD-78 |
Martin Block |
43.52% |
30.78% |
D+12.74 |
O+21.8 |
| AD-79 |
Mary Salas |
48.47% |
23.91% |
D+24.56 |
O+31.6 |
| AD-80 |
Manuel Perez |
45.41% |
35.39% |
D+10.02 |
O+20.7 |
about the state senate we have a very good chance of taking SD-15. The district has heavily Democratic cities such as Santa Cruz, Santa Clara, and Monterrey packed in it. Though it was smart of Schwarzenegger to schedule the general election for this seat on October 17th. If it was held in November, the Republican candidate, some State Rep would lose because Boxer and Jerry Brown would be at the top of the ticket.
SD-12…I don’t know. I would rate it lean Republican at the moment. The GOP advantage in the Central valley imploded badly in 2008, but the GOP has been harping on the water issue like no tomorrow in an attempt to reestablish their advantage in the Central Valley.
for Radanovich’s seat. At least that’s something.
Getting the three Assembly seats together seems like it could be more of a challenge to me.