With only two weeks remaining, it’s time for another round of updates to our Senate, Gubernatorial, and House ratings. With DCCC triage in full effect, giving us a clear picture of who’s on the very wrong side of the House firewall, you may notice that this is the first time we’ve added House incumbents to the “Lean Republican” column. (In an interesting bit of symmetry, FL-24 was also the first race in 2008 where we dropped an incumbent — Tom Feeney — to “Lean D,” also about two weeks prior to the election.)
- DE-Sen: Lean D to Likely D
- FL-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
- OH-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
- WI-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
- IL-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
- ME-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
- NH-Gov: Likely D to Lean D
- SC-Gov: Likely R to Lean R
- AR-04: Safe D to Likely D
- AZ-07: Safe D to Tossup
- AZ-08: Lean D to Tossup
- CA-11: Lean D to Tossup
- CA-20: Likely D to Lean D
- FL-24: Tossup to Lean R
- GA-08: Lean D to Tossup
- ID-01: Tossup to Lean D
- IL-11: Tossup to Lean R
- IL-17: Lean D to Tossup
- IN-08: Lean R to Likely R
- MA-04: Safe D to Likely D
- MI-15: Safe D to Likely D
- MN-08: Safe D to Likely D
- MS-04: Likely D to Lean D
- NC-08: Lean D to Tossup
- NJ-12: Likely D to Lean D
- NY-04: Safe D to Likely D
- NY-22: Safe D to Likely D
- OH-01: Tossup to Lean R
- OH-06: Likely D to Lean D
- OH-09: Likely D to Safe D
- OH-13: Tossup to Lean D
- OH-15: Tossup to Lean R
- OR-04: Safe D to Likely D
- PA-03: Tossup to Lean R
- PA-07: Lean R to Tossup
- TX-17: Tossup to Lean R
- WA-08: Likely R to Lean R
28 of these changes favor Republicans; 9 races (DE-Sen, 3 of the 4 gubernatorial races, and 5 House races, including the Ohio implosion duo) have moved in the Democratic direction.
At this point?
AZ-07: Safe D straight to Tossup? I only see three pieces of evidence for a legitimate race: the American Political Consultants poll (McClung internal), the Magellan poll (Republican “private client”), and a $60K DCCC outlay (h/t spiderdem). The recent DCCC involvement does concern me, but until the Republicans enter the game financially or a public poll confirms Grijalva’s weakness, I have him at Likely D.
CA-18: Cardoza will fall before Costa. He has a tougher district and a better opponent. I have him at Tossup.
Hulburd 46
Quayle 44
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
I think Edwards is a decent guy. If he goes down, does anyone think he could take a stab at the Senate in 2012 or 2014 depending on the climate? I imagine that this year marks the peak of Republican popularity (or at least I hope…).
Causey 44, Crawford 42
http://dccc.org/newsroom/entry…
Also at the bottom of the page is an OR-04 poll that I had previously missed, showing DeFazio up 14.
Roy Blunt up 46-41 in MO. Getting closer, it could theoretically be a pick up.
Walt finally got an upgrade! (seeings as he’s trailed in one poll out of about a dozen, that being in June)
The biggest thing that killed Labrador? Well, being Latino in a district that is 91% white and 6% hispanic (or about 2% legal hispanic) definitely was the main thing.