Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (10/16-17, likely voters):
Jon Hulburd (D): 46
Ben Quayle (R): 44
(MoE: ±3.8%)
Whoa. When Republicans have someone like Raul Grijalva on his heels but are having trouble locking down this conservative Phoenix-area district, you know that frat boy Ben Quayle has some serious residual issues leftover from his primary performance — a performance that was catastrophic in every way, except for the fact that he actually won over a highly fractured field. Indeed, PPP finds Quayle’s favorables at an extremely bruised 34-52 (compared to 33-20 for Hulburd). Hulburd wins moderates by 66-27, independents by 50-36, and even takes away 18% of Republicans.
Looks like you can mark this one down on the (very) small list of GOP-held House seats that Republicans actually should be concerned about.
But I think this is worth pointing out again.
There has been a lot of steam building
against R incumbents within the last few weeks. First, Delbene started moving up against Reichert. Bera shows that he’s neck and neck with Lungren. You’ve got the internals showing Garcia ahead of Rivera and Edwards ahead of Ross, which were never repudiated by the other side or by public polling. And now Hulburd ahead of Quayle.
I really think that these R incumbents in swing districts, guys like Patrick Tiberi, Mary Bono Mack, and Bill Young, might be in a lot more danger than the pundits think. The Tea Partiers that have been railing so hard against the democrats have also been known to rail against their own kind at times. Up to this point, it was widely assumed that their cannibalism was only taking out more electable incumbents in the primaries, but perhaps in districts with R incumbents, these people won’t be motivated to keep their representatives in office. This is especially true for such representatives like Leonard Lance, Frank LoBiondo, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, and others who voted for stuff like cap-n-trade and the repeal of DADT.
This is a late developing story, but could be one that ends up being a major talking point on election night and the days afterward, particularly if the democrats pick up 8, 9, 10 Rep seats and keep the House as a result.
it would be close. It has been interesting that we’ve seen no other polling here.
One interesting thing, though, is PPP’s LV model. Usually they’re pretty pessimistic (like seeing a 51-44 McCain sample in FL), but here they have a 52-40 McCain sample, when this district actually went 57-42. Maybe there isn’t an enthusiasm gap here?
You heard it here first.
ability to close the deal. He won a fractured primary and is a very weak candidate who should create enough reservations within the electorate to allow Hubbard to have a chance to be one of the few D pick-ups this cycle.
This will just get the money flowing into Quayle the last two weeks. NRCC money might be limited, but not the third party funding.
Good line:
That a Democrat might be representing District 3 at the same time a Republican could wind up in District 7… Or even that the only seat Democrats may hold outside of the Hispanic-majority District 4 and District 7 (sorry Ruth) would be District 3…
Fantastic news though. Basically, this district start out in Dem-friendly Central Phoenix, moves north and east into swing-ier neighborhoods like Sunnyslope and Arcadia, before winding up in straight-ticket Republican areas like Paradise Valley (the neighborhood in Phoenix and the town) and Deer Valley. It’s not an easy task, but if Hulbred can win the swing areas, and peel off some of the normally straight-ticket R voters in the Northern and Eastern portions of the district on account of Quayle’s “broken moral compass” he’s well on his way to winning the district.
If Arizona only gains 1 seat in redistricting, I see this district shrinking down into Central Phoenix along with the swing neighborhoods and the northern and eastern portions of the district forming a new AZ-09 with Scottsdale and maybe a couple of West Valley suburbs. Hulbred could be well rewarded if he gets his foor in the door now, as lots of prominent Dems would be taking a look at a swingy, slightly Democratic seat.
Not for a second. Hulburd’s ad has simply been attacking Quayle on the website he was somewhat affiliated with. This district doesn’t seem religious enough for that to hurt. I don’t know anybody here who is voting/voted for Hulburd.
This having been said, I’m going to feel REALLY STUPID should Hulburd come up just short, as I already voted Libertarian. I thought and thought about it, but Hulburd just couldn’t seal the deal with me, and I thought he had no chance anyways. (As someone upthread said, here in AZ we’ve been voting for two weeks already).
think I’m going to give some coy to Hulburd. I can’t stand the thought of Quayle in Congress. Seriously for some reason I just hate him. HUGE fail by Republicans here. Anyone would be doing better. I don’t blame Republicans from deferring from him now. Sadly my guess is that Quayle eeks out a small win but I think he either gets primaried or loses next cycle.
Hulburd is actually a better fit for the district: socially liberal, economic centrist and law-and-order especially. Quayle does not give me the impression of being law-and-order. Being law-and-order is the key to winning here as in most of Arizona. And I will not be surprised to see Hulburd win and Grijalva lose.
Or maybe he did a poll with similar poor results and decided not to push it.
BTW this reminds me I really ought to see that movie sometime.
Literally — I called this seat as in play ten days ago.
The problem for the GOP is that they have a terrible, awful, no-good, very bad candidate, and we have a picture-perfect candidate. I also thought Hulburd destroyed Quayle in their only debate, not so much by what was said, but by creating an atmosphere where Hulburd was the disapproving father and Quayle was the wayward son. That’s the sort of thing that will make people vote against party.
The other problem for the GOP is that Hulburd is a self-funder, so they can’t just throw some money at this and make it go away (like we can in AZ-07); Hulburd can just cut himself another check and keep dancing. They really are in serious trouble here.
is no Jack Kennedy either:
This is really neither here nor there, but I can’t be the only one that thinks Ben Quayle looks like an honest-to-god muppet brought to life, am I?