CO-Sen: In a debate on Meet the Press with Sen. Michael Bennet, GOPer Ken Buck said he thinks that being gay is a choice – and then followed up by saying, “I think that birth has an influence over it, like alcoholism and some other things, but I think that basically you have a choice.”
NH-Sen: This is not so helpful: Paul Hodes’s former pollster, Mountain West Research, just agreed to pay New Hampshire a $20K fine for failing to comply with state law regarding a negative message-testing poll they did on behalf of Hodes this past summer. The AP calls it “push polling,” but it quite clearly wasn’t, given the small number of respondents involved, and also the timing (push polling is something you do to mass numbers of people right before election day). It seems like Mountain West’s sin was failing to identify the poll’s sponsor (i.e., Hodes) on their calls.
PA-Sen: CQ says that the DSCC has spent $4.7 million in Pennsylvania to date (not include the $1.2 million they shelled out to help Arlen Specter), and Dems expect to spend $9 million before all is said and done, making it the biggest commitment in the nation. Thanks to independent groups, the NRSC has only spent about $600K here so far.
WV-Sen: This has already come up on the campaign trail (Joe Manchin’s mentioned it in ads, for instance), but now it’s official: John Raese’s wife has been formally purged from the West Virginia voting rolls – because she’s also registered to vote in Florida, where she lives. (Ooh! Voter fraud!) And while we’re on the topic, Raese probably wishes that Rush Limbaugh would shut his big fat mouth. This is how Big Pharma described the senate candidate while endorsing him on his show:
“Full disclosure, I happen to know John Raese. He is a part-time resident here in Palm Beach and he has a locker right across the, right across the bench from me at a prominent local club. I’ve never played golf with him, but I’ve met him.”
As the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Daniel Malloy says, “The image of Raese rubbing elbows with Rush at a swank Palm Beach country club is not one that the Raese campaign must welcome right now.”
AZ-07: I wonder what guys like Steve Driehaus have to think when they get told to walk the plank while veterans in much bluer districts who are victims only of their own self-inflicted wounds – oh, such as, I dunno, Raul Grijalva – get help airlifted in from above. Anyhow, the DCCC must clearly sense trouble in AZ’s 7th CD, since they’ve gone up on the air here with an ad hitting Ruth McClung for supporting a 23% national sales tax.
FL-22: You may have seen the news that GOPer Allen West has a disturbingly close relationship with a notorious gang of violent criminals known as the Outlaws Motorcycle Club. The best part now, though, is West’s denial that he has any affiliation with the group, in which he channels a sort of Bizarro Groucho Marx. The Outlaws, you see, “do not accept blacks, Jews or gays.” Phew!
NC-11: Big Dog alert! Bill Clinton is doing a rally for Heath Shuler in Asheville on Thursday.
NY-22: It may not be quite Paul LePage levels, but Maurice Hinchey probably wishes he hadn’t gotten so testy with a reporter who asked him questions about whether he had a financial interest in a local development project. On tape, you can see Hinchey tell William Kemble that he is “full of baloney” and to “shut up.” After the cameras stopped rolling, though, Hinchey apparently “made a beeline for Kemble and got in his face.” Crew for local station YNN said they “saw the congressman poke Kemble in the chest aggressively.”
TN-08: Though Ron Johnson’s received probably the most attention in recent months, I think Steve Fincher may be this cycle’s granddaddy for bailouts-for-me-but-not-for-thee Republicanism. As an agribusiness kingpin, he’s raked in millions in federal farm subsidies. Now it turns out that he also received a state grant just last year – and may have even violated the terms of that grant by selling the equipment it helped him buy too quickly.
TX-17: It looks like Bill Flores is going to win the Tommy Thompson Award for Crazy Beliefs Blamed on Bodily Functions. You may recall that Thompson (by far my favorite Republican candidate to run in the last GOP presidential primary) claimed that a full bladder caused him to say he favored allowing employers to fire gay employees during a debate in 2007. Now Flores wants backsies for telling an interviewer that he was not opposed to raising the Social Security retirement age… because he had a headache.
DCCC/NRCC: CQ says that so far, the NRCC has spent $31 million on independent expenditures this cycle, while the D-Trip has spent $22 mil.
Senate: Politico has a roundup of senate fundraising numbers.
SSP TV:
- PA-Sen: It’s been a while, but at long last, we finally have another poop-themed ad, thanks to Joe Sestak
- KY-Sen: I worship you, Aqua Buddha! (Apparently this ad has turned Rand Paul into a WATB)
- GA-Gov: Roy Barnes hits Nathan Deal for once having tried to weaken the state’s rape shield law; the RGA uses a clip of Roy Barnes dismissing the deaths of two children in state custody: “Out of 20,000 children, you’re going to have children die every day.”
- NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo whacks Carl Paladino on abortion rights
- CA-03: Karl Rove’s American Crossroads attacks Ami Bera for supporting “Obamacare”
- CA-20: The DCCC says Republican Andy Vidak wants to cut federal funding for water projects (apparently a big issue in this district)
- NY-04: Carolyn McCarthy’s first spot of the cycle touts her focus on job creation
- OH-02: Dem Surya Yalamanchili says his ad cost him only $20 to make
- TX-27: In a much-less-good-than-it-could-have-been ad, Rep. Solomon Ortiz features that goofy photo of Blake Farenthold in his pajamas with a scantily clad woman
- VA-01: Dem Krystal Ball introduces herself with her first ad
This doesn’t look good:
Murray (D): $3.3M raised, $1.2M on hand
Rossi (R): $4.4M raised, $3.5M on hand
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s…
Has Rossi been sitting on most of his cash waiting for a late blast? Did Murray really blow 5 million or so in the last two months trying to define him early? Then she’d better have a significant lead right now and we’d better hope that holds.
I gotta say, that is a damn quote from Roy Barnes. Quite reprehensible really.
They have Angle up 50-47. Turnout model is 37D-37R-26I, in a state with voter registration at 42D-37R-21I. They have an electorate that is 76% white.
Angle’s favorables at 48-50, compared to 42-56 a week ago, compared to 47-52 a week before that, compared to 43-56 a week before that. So Rassy is all over the map on her favorables, alternating repeatedly between BARELY underwater and significantly underwater.
Crosstabs are much less reliable than the above topline numbers, but FWIW, they have Angle getting 16% of Dems when most polling pegs Reid as having significantly more crossover support than Angle. They also have Reid winning the “other” race, i.e., not black and not white, only 52-47. Again, these are not reliable statistically, but Rasmussen has a consistent sampling problem particularly with racial minorities.
All this is to say I think the race is, no surprise, a pure tossup. Angle is not going to get 50% or anywhere close to it, or 16% of Dems, or an exit poll favorability close to 50%. Of those things I am confident. Of a Reid win, I’m 50-50 now and only hope Nevada Dems can engineer a sufficiently favorable turnout model.
It started last Thursday, so we’re barely into it (it was not opened this past weekend but will be open this coming weekend, both days, and it ends on 10/30).
85,000 ballots cast already; of those, 43% are Democrats (36,182), 40% Republican (33,788), 17% Una/Lib.
Registration-wise, Dems are at 44.68%, GOP at 31.58% and Unaffiliated voters account for 23.60%.
White voters are 79%, black voters are 15%.
Keep in mind this includes mail-absentees which are generally GOP-favored.
In most counties with extra early-voting sites, those were not open on 10/14 and 10/15. Some are opening today (Buncombe County – Asheville) and others don’t open ’til Friday (Wake County – Raleigh). So, only one site was open in most counties this past week, usually at the Board of Elections office or some other county government office.
Here’s the tiny URL: http://tiny.cc/v66d2
Looks like they’ll update it daily.
I like the poop ad. Could be a momentum-shifter on the level of TCG’s “Olivia” ad for Michael Nutter in 2007.
But Krystal Ball … substance is fine, but her voice comes off as clinical, not warm or confident. Too rehearsed.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/o…
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
Generally speaking, I’m starting to feel as if we have a slightly better than outside chance of holding the House. Because we racked up such nice margins in the last two elections, the Democrats have a 75-seat margin of victory. Losses were inevitable, and unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately, a lot of seats can be lost before we end up losing it. A few thoughts:
1. Holding the House is obviously helped it we pick up seats, and at bare minimum, we will do that in three cases, probably four. But aside from some districts in Washington or California that might bump that number up slightly, where else are we expected to be legitimately competitive? Unless I am forgetting about district, the number is six, maybe seven districts.
2. Now, this means we need to, at worst, bottom out in the polls where we are right now, or, at best, establish leads in a lot of races. The polls seem to be moving gradually in our favor, at least the ones with legitimate samples that aren’t known for releasing dubious results. This could change very quickly. And of course, a lot of it depends on internal information that we just aren’t seeing.
3. With (2) in mind, we can obviously interpret the spending as an indication of how certain races are going. Perhaps it’s just the natural tendencies of the press at work, but a lot of attention was devoted to the DCCC dropping out of some House races, or scaling back dramatically. That’s natural, especially when you are mostly playing defense like we are, and it’s part of any smart strategy. I can’t say I’d be any less pissed than Steve Driehaus for making the tough votes and then being let go, but that’s the game.
With that in mind, why is the NRCC still spending so much money in some districts, like CO-04? In some cases, it’s almost as much as $1 million per week, or maybe that’s for a longer period of time like a month. Not all media markets are cheap, but not all of them are expensive like the New York metro area, either. You’d think that if the districts were really locks at this point–and some of them probably are, considering they are bound to get at least 20 seats–they’d spend the money elsewhere. Even with the overwhelming outside advantage that the Republicans have, money isn’t limitless. Why wouldn’t they be shifting money to AZ-07, for instance, if they felt CO-04 was so likely? There doesn’t need to be any collusion between official committees and outside groups to track what group is spending where, so it kind of makes sense to consider them as more or less aware of what each is doing.
Basically, my gut tells me that things aren’t nearly as bad as some say they are if they are spending such considerable sums of money on districts like CO-04 at this point in the game. I’d be interested to hear what others think on this note.
4. On that note, some small spending by candidates is natural, or so it seems. Thus, hearing that Carolyn McCarthy is launching an ad isn’t necessarily defensive. Even those who aren’t in any trouble–hello, Chuck Schumer–play ads. And even if it is defensive, it makes sense to spend less money to stop any potential problems than spend more in a week. So, when we hear that small sums are being dropped on candidates who should be safe, we shouldn’t freak out.
5. As far as GOTV efforts go, this might–MIGHT–be one area where the Democrats are ahead of the Republicans. adleft has said how the Republicans are not nearly as ready as the Democrats in Nevada. I wonder how many states there are where (a) their ground game is superior to or equal to what the Republicans have to offer and (b) where (a) will be enhanced by a strong Democrat at the top of the ticket. Aside from, say, Cuomo, Strickland, maybe Hicklenlooper and maybe even Brown, there aren’t too many Democrats who could bring a big ground game that could help House members, but if it helps us keep just five to ten seats, that’s incredible. There’s also the Obama for America efforts.
This won’t save a candidate running 15 points behind, but perhaps one that is running two or three could be pushed over the finish line by a strong ground game. After all, Obama won by larger margins in a lot of states where he was running only slightly ahead. The circumstances aren’t exactly the same, but still, it shows you that a ground game is vitally important.
Has Dan Coats run any ads?
The gift that keeps on giving. Now I see why the GOP have to burn so much cash. They are barely keeping him afloat in a close race thinking throwing more cash at it can solve the problem. Buck is on the same path as Paladino. Paladino was somewhat competitive immediately after GOP primary and then went crashing after putting his foot in his mouth. Fortunately for Bennet there are several days left in the campaign.
At this rate of Buck’s constant gaffes I predict Bennet will win by 4-6%
I only rarely post but I visit this site religiously. You guys seem to really know your stuff. So where do we really stand for the midterm? It seems the media narrative is out of step with the reality of specific polls that I see posted here of House and Senate races. Why? And realistically what do you guys think are our chances of holding both houses?
Thanks!!
http://pr-usa.net/index.php?op…
Not sure what to make of this. Very slight advantage to Republicans relative to registration, though Dems have cast 2.5k more ballots.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo…
PS. HT to askew, who included this link in his latest dKos diary.
http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito…
http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo…
They have Patty up 49-46 now with leaners, 48-45 without leaners. Favorabilities virtually the same, 49-48 for Murray and 49-49 for Rossi. Obama job approval healthy at 52-47. Turnout model is 36D-34I-30R, and 88% white.
Rasmussen was the only independent pollster to show a Rossi lead all this time, and now even they can’t maintain the charade!
Here is a pretty reasonable poll on VA-05. Hurt 46% – Perriello – 40%. Crosstabs are included at the link below and have AA vote at 15%. The district is 25% AA but I think that 15% is a pretty reasonable figure for what the turnout model would be.
Unfortunately but not surprising is that Hurt is winning huge with people who are voting for the economy. Full disclosure is that I have canvassed for Perriello the last few weekends. Had a very interesting conversation with an elderly couple in their late 80s who praised me for getting involved and said that they were extremely disappointed that people expected the recession to be over in a few weeks. They related on growing up in the depression and said that with the 24 hour news media cycle and people’s short memories it is impossible to capture anyone’s attention that we won’t get out of a recession in a few weeks. So true in many respects. I hope that I didn’t violate any rules on discussing policy here but I thought that was a very interesting perspective from a couple who had lived through the Depression.
http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Ev…
http://www.dailykos.com/pollin…
PPP: Hulburd 46, Quayle 44
I don’t know if this has been posted yet, but…
A DCCC-sponsored Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll conducted Oct. 9-12 has…
Bobby Bright (D) 51%
Martha Roby (R) 39%
400 LVs. 4.9 MoE
Dates 10/13-10/14. Keeping in mind that it’s both POS and an internal, I think Sanchez is probably well ahead.
Dates 10/13-10/14. Bruun internal. Does anyone know if Moore Information is an IVR pollster?
…they disclose in a tweet that they polled this time for the Carnahan campaign as a client.
That’s huge. Major campaigns have always frowned on robopollers. But PPP is getting some serious campaign clientele now, not just cash-poor ones.
Here’s the link:
http://www.publicpolicypolling…
http://dccc.org/blog/entry/mor…
The only one I don’t believe has been posted here already is:
http://myemail.constantcontact…
$143,000 to $109,261, whereas most of Krom’s money came from individuals and Campbell’s came from Corporate PACS. I don’t have high hopes for Krom this year, but if she come somewhat close, she could have a good chance in 2012. Hopefully hedrick can pull it out against Calvert in CA-44, who is a more damaged incumbent than Campbell.