Tag: OR-05

In the open seat race in OR-05, which several months ago was actually supposed to be hotly contested, one more domino fell in place for Kurt Schrader. And this one’s actually a bit of a surprise: last Thursday, he got the endorsement of the Oregon Farm Bureau, one of the few remaining power bases for state Republicans. This is especially important in the 5th, which is where most of Oregon’s agricultural production is concentrated.

Republican Mike Erickson is now running without either of two of the most important endorsements a Republican in Oregon can have: the Farm Bureau, and Oregon Right to Life (which instead called for him to drop out after allegations that he previously paid for a girlfriend’s abortion).

Part of this may have to do with Schrader being a veterinarian and an occasional ally of farmers in the state senate, part of this may have to do with the perception that Erickson was fatally wounded by Kevin Mannix’s last-minute slime-bombing in the primary. But a lot of it seems to simply turn on the Farm Bureau’s acceptance of a near-term future where the Democrats dominate Washington:

Don Schellenberg, a farm bureau lobbyist, insisted that Erickson’s electability issues didn’t influence the farm bureau. In fact, he even said that the farm bureau thought Schrader could get more done because the Democrats will almost certainly retain control of Congress.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

With the field set for the open seat battle in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District, the Swing State Project is updating its rating of this race from Tossup to Leans Democratic.

A D+0.5 district that Bush won narrowly in 2004, Republicans considered this race a rare pickup opportunity in a bad cycle.  But a number of events give the Democratic nominee, state Sen. Kurt Schrader, the early edge:

1) The GOP primary was especially brutal, with frequent candidate Kevin Mannix releasing allegations that businessman Mike Erickson had a hard-partying (not-so-distant) past that included recreational cocaine use and impregnating his girlfriend and paying for her abortion.  Erickson survived the primary, but in part due to Oregon’s mail-in ballot system.  Late deciding voters favored Mannix by 14 points in SurveyUSA’s final poll of the race, but by that point, too many voters had already cast their lot with Erickson before the allegations had their full effect.

2) Erickson is entering the general election campaign badly wounded in the press and among the GOP faithful.  Mannix issued this scathing non-endorsement today:

“I will not support him because he’s a dishonest person and that’s my bottom line,” Mannix told the Politico. “I cannot support a dishonest campaign. I need to stick to my principles here, and he’ll have to deal with it. That doesn’t mean I’m endorsing or supporting the Democrat, but I’m not doing anything for him.”

On top of that, Oregon Right to Life had asked Erickson to drop out of the race, and they’re refusing to support him in his general election bid.  Ouch.

3) Just as compelling is the rapid Democratic trend in the district’s voter registration tallies.  As recently as January, Republicans had a voter registration edge of 146,394 to 142,557 for the Democrats.  The April numbers show a dramatic turnaround: Democrats now have a voter registration advantage of 161,384 to the GOP’s 143,365.  So while Democrats have increased in number in this district, Republican registration has actually seen a slight decline.

While this race could still be competitive, the burden is now on Erickson to prove that it is.

Our full list of race ratings is available here.

Results will begin to be reported from Oregon in a few minutes.  We’ll use this thread to track the returns from OR-Sen and OR-05.

RESULTS: OR-Sen | OR-05

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11:20PM ET: Merkley is up by 4 points so far.  He’s losing Portland, but has a big lead in Lane County (Eugene).  Interesting.

11:57PM ET (David): Merkley’s lead has been holding steady at 4% much of the night. About 61% of the vote has been counted so far.

12:17AM ET (David): My back-of-the-envelope says that it’s unlikely that Novick could squeeze more than another 4-5K out of Multnomah County (margin-wise). Outside of Multnomah, he’s got almost nothing. I’m not sure I can see how he can overtake Merkley’s lead.

12:40AM ET (James): Mike “I Don’t Know What Cocaine Looks Like” Erickson won his primary, amazingly enough.

1:03AM ET (David): Blue Oregon says that Novick has called Merkley to concede.

1:06AM ET (James): The Oregonian has just called this race for Jeff Merkley!

Polls close in Oregon at 8pm Pacific/11pm Eastern.  We’ll put up a results thread closer to that hour.  

In the meantime, feel free to post your predictions for the Democratic Senate primary and the Republican primary for OR-05.

SurveyUSA (5/16-18, likely voters and actual voters, 5/5-7 in parens):

Kevin Mannix (R): 46 (41)

Mike Erickson (R): 42 (49)

(MoE: ±4.7%)

As you probably know, this race was recently shaken up in a big way when Mannix released serious allegations about Erickson’s hard-partying past.  Among voters who have already returned their ballots in Oregon’s mail-in system, Erickson leads by 2 points.  But in SUSA’s likely voter screen, the 38% of voters who have not yet returned their ballots favor Mannix by a 14-point margin.

On the Democratic side, things are looking good for state Sen. Kurt Schrader:

Kurt Schrader (D): 43 (37)

Steve Marks (D): 19 (14)

Other/Undecided: 38 (49)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

SurveyUSA (5/5-7, likely and actual voters, 4/13-15 in parens):

Kurt Schrader (D): 37 (23)

Steve Marks (D): 14 (20)

Other/Undecided: 49 (57)

(MoE: ±4%)

And on the GOP side:

Mike Erickson (R): 49 (44)

Kevin Mannix (R): 41 (40)

Other/Undecided: 10 (17)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Primary: 5/20.

May is going to be an exciting month for political junkies.  We’ve got a cornucopia of races to watch this month: two special elections, and a number of competitive House, Senate and Gubernatorial primaries.

Let’s take a look at the month ahead:

May 3: This Saturday, Louisiana voters will head to the polls in two congressional special elections:  

• LA-06: Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux will square off with “newspaper editor” Woody Jenkins to fill the open seat of ex-Rep. Richard Baker.  In this hotly contested race, Democrats have been blessed with the better candidate, stellar fundraising, and favorable polls.  However, the NRCC and their allies have dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads painting Cazayoux as a serial tax raiser and a Barack Obama disciple.

  We’ll find out on Saturday night if any of these attacks have made an impact.  The most recent poll, though, shows Cazayoux with a nine point lead.  SSP will be liveblogging the results, so be sure to check with us then.  There will also be a special election to replace Bobby Jindal in LA-01, but this one should be a solid lock for the GOP.

May 6: While the eyes of the nation will be fixed on the Indiana and North Carolina presidential primaries, voters in these states will also be deciding a number of other hotly-contested primaries:

• IN-Gov (D): Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger will square off with former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson for the Democratic nod against Mitch Daniels.  Schellinger’s had a big fundraising edge, but the polls here have generally been tight, with an edge for Thompson.  This one could be close.
• IN-07 (D): Despite winning a March special election to fill the vacant seat created by his grandmother’s passing, Rep. Andre Carson faces a competitive primary for the Democratic slot on the November ballot.  His strongest rival is former state Health Commissioner Woody Myers, who has lent his campaign a substantial amount of money.  State Reps. David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays will also be on the ballot.
• NC-Gov: Democrats will decide a contentious primary between Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and State Treasurer Richard Moore for the gubernatorial nomination.  Perdue has had the advantage in nearly all of SurveyUSA’s tracking polls here.

  Republicans will also decide a primary for this office between Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and state Sen. Fred Smith (plus two also-rans).  In the most recent SUSA poll, Smith was only four points behind the front-runner McCrory.

• NC-Sen (D): State Senator Kay Hagan and businessman Jim Neal will face off for the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole.  While this contest was effectively tied for a while, Hagan’s large fundraising edge on Neal has been enough to buy her a 20-point lead in the latest poll.
• NC-03 (R): For a while, it looked like this primary might have been as heated as Andy Harris’ successful overthrow of anti-war moderate GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in Maryland.  But Onslow County Commissioner Joe McLaughlin’s campaign against Rep. Walter Jones hasn’t gotten a lot of fundraising traction.  It will still be worth watching to see just how tolerant GOP primary voters will be of Jones’ anti-war stance.
• NC-10 (R): While I don’t expect Air Force vet Lance Sigmon to topple the odious Patrick McHenry in the GOP primary, his campaign drew a fair bit of attention for his aggressive attacks on McHenry’s antics in Iraq (calling a security worker a “two-bit security guard”, and compromising troop safety by posting a video of an attack in the Green Zone).  Democrats have a strong candidate against McHenry for the November election — veteran and hero Daniel Johnson — so Sigmon’s showing might give us a good reading on how damaging McHenry’s behavior has been to his re-election chances in this R+15 district.

May 13: Another huge day for political watchers, with hot races in Mississippi and Nebraska.

• MS-01: The big event.  Democratic Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers has waged a startlingly strong campaign for the open seat left behind earlier this year when Roger Wicker was appointed to the Senate.  Despite running in an R+10 district and being at a financial disadvantage, Childers edged GOP candidate and Southaven Mayor Greg Davis by a 49%-46% margin in the April 22 special primary election.  Davis and the NRCC have fought back hard, trying to tie Childers to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama.  But the DCCC is playing to win, and they’ve invested a whopping $1.1 million in this race.  This one should be close.
• NE-Sen (D): Here’s something rare — a Democratic primary for a statewide office in Nebraska.  Businessman and former Republican Tony Raimondo will compete with former congressional candidate Scott Kleeb for the Democratic nod against the Republican front-runner, Mike Johanns.
• NE-02 (D): GOP Rep. Lee Terry had a surprisingly close re-election campaign in 2006, winning his district by less than 10 points against political neophyte Jim Esch.  Now, Esch is back for a rematch, but will first meet with Iraq War vet Richard Carter for the Democratic nomination.  Between Esch’s name recognition and Carter’s weak fundraising, Esch is in a good position to win here.

May 20: There are four primaries in Kentucky and Oregon worth keeping an eye on.

• KY-Sen (D): Former gubernatorial candidate and businessman Bruce Lunsford and businessman Greg Fischer will face off against a slew of also-rans for the Democratic nomination against GOP obstructionist-in-chief Mitch McConnell.  Lunsford has never been able to win a Democratic primary, but this might be his chance.  Polls have shown him with a large lead against Fischer, whose campaign has yet to catch fire.
• KY-02 (D): Democrats will go to the polls to decide between state Sen. David Boswell and Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire for the Democratic nomination to contest this open seat left behind by the retiring Rep. Ron Lewis.  Boswell was seen as the early front-runner, but his fundraising has been extremely sluggish ($30K to Haire’s $200K in the first quarter).  Still, Boswell might have a chance based on name recognition alone.
• OR-Sen (D): Another big event, with state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and activist Steve Novick competing for the Democratic nomination against Gordon Smith.  Novick has kept this a competitive race, airing quirky ads and winning several key newspaper endorsements.
• OR-05: With the retirement of Rep. Darlene Hooley (D), there are tight primary contests on both sides to succeed her.  Democrats will pick between former Gov. Kitzhaber aide Steve Marks and state Sen. Kurt Schrader.  Marks has picked up the larger share of endorsements so far, while Schrader appears to be the DCCC’s preferred candidate. (Update: As Kari notes in the comments, my statement about endorsements here is a bit off the mark.  Schrader’s been no slouch in this department at all.  My mistake!)

  On the GOP side, voters will choose between ’06 nominee and businessman Mike Erickson and former Gov. candidate Kevin Mannix.

There you have it.  May will be a month chock full of races worth watching.  SSP will aim to liveblog as many of these races as we can when the results come in.

SurveyUSA (likely primary voters, 4/13-15):

Kurt Schrader (D): 23%

Steve Marks (D): 20%

Other/Undecided: 57%

(MoE: ±4.1%)

And on the GOP side…

Mike Erickson (R): 44%

Kevin Mannix (R): 40%

Other/Undecided: 17%

(MoE: ±5%)

Not surprisingly, the undecided vote is much smaller among GOP voters.  Erickson was the 2006 nominee for this seat, while Mannix has run for a number of statewide offices in the past.  Former gubernatorial aide Steve Marks and state Sen. Kurt Schrader, on the other hand, have lower profiles.

Uh oh; we finally have a Democratic open seat for 2008 that isn’t an automatic hold. The Oregonian (via Blue Oregon) reports that Darlene Hooley is retiring in OR-05.

She says:

Hooley, 68, who spent time in the hospital in November, said health was not a reason for her decision not to seek a seventh term. “I’ve never felt better,” she said in an interview.

Instead, she said it was the cumulative effect of arduous travel, the relentless demands of fund-raising and 32 years of public service that converged into a decision.

“At some point in everybody’s life you have to decide, how much longer do I want to do this?” she said.

“It’s time to move on.”

OR-05 is a D+1 district. Hooley has represented it since 1996 (when she beat Jim Bunn, one of the more aberrant members of the Class of 94). She’s a New Dem, and somewhat to the right of the Dem caucus’s midpoint with a Progressive Punch score in the low 80s.

This district has a Democratic tradition, but it currently has a 5,000 registered voter edge for the GOP. The district is a mix of Portland burbs (the more affluent ones lean GOP, the more middle-class ones lean Dem), exurbs (very GOP), Salem (lean Dem), part of Corvallis (very Dem), and rural farm areas (very GOP). It has a rapidly growing Latino population, but they probably aren’t voting much yet. (It’s currently 81% white, 13% Latino. It’s Oregon’s 2nd most affluent district, although that’s certainly skewed upwards by burbs like Lake Oswego and West Linn.)

Mike Erickson, who ran in 2006, is running again on the GOP side. He held her to about 55-45 in 2006 and can self-finance, so he has the potential to make this a very competitive race.

PolitickerOR speculates that her chief of staff, Joan Mooney Evans, will leap into the race. Another possibility they mention is new House Majority Leader Dave Hunt. A name that also occurred to me is Jim Hill, who used to represent Salem in the state senate, then was state treasurer, and most recently primaried governor Ted Kulongoski from the left in the 2006 election.

Bottom line: this will be the Dems’ most difficult open seat to hold, although that’s mostly by virtue of their other open seats being pretty easy. Erickson has an advantage in running a second time, but he’ll be going uphill against another blue tide, and the Dems have a decent bench to pick from here.