Tag: SSP House Race Ratings

We here at SSP were skeptical of Larry Kissell’s rematch bid for a long while, in large part because he seemed to be denying himself a chance to be competitive due to his lackluster fundraising. (We never bought the “I’m not from a wealthy district” excuse – just check out Eric Massa’s fundraising.) Yet he finally stepped it up in the third quarter, and then three polls in a row showed him with a lead.

More importantly, the DCCC jumped in in a big way. In fact, no district has seen a bigger disparity in party committee spending – about $2.5 million to zero. Indeed, it seems that the NRCC has given up on sad-sack Robin Hayes, putting Kissell in a commanding position to finish off the Republican once and for all. (David)

There’s no question that the momentum lies with the Democrats in this Omaha-based CD. For the first time since 1994 (the last year that this district had Democratic representation), Dems have built up a voter registration lead in Douglas County (which makes up over 80% of the district’s population). Esch has been aided significantly by the efforts of the Obama campaign, which has an aggressive field campaign in place here to steal the district’s electoral vote from John McCain, as well as the DCCC, which has backed Esch up with over $750,000 in independent expenditures in the past few weeks.

Terry only led Esch by a single point in the most recently-released poll of this district, and the DC scuttlebutt indicates that Terry is only clinging to a small lead in his own polling. That might have been enough to hold on in other years, but no incumbent under 50% and feeling their challenger’s breath on the back of their neck can be considered especially favored, especially with uncertainties surrounding the turnout of a newly-energized pool of African-American voters in this district. This one should be be close. (James)

The DCCC hasn’t jumped in with guns blazing in this district, but there’s still reason for optimism in this R+13 district that wanders all the way from the Houston suburbs to Austin suburbs. Polling shows former TV judge Larry Joe Doherty within arm’s length of incument Mike McCaul, including a recent R2K poll with Doherty down by just 4. McCaul’s fundraising has been lackluster, and he’s been nervous about early voting patterns in this district. This is also a district that has changed dramatically even since 2004; population-wise, it’s the fastest-growing district in Texas and most of that growth is non-white. McCaul still has to be favored to pull it out, but Doherty is poised for an upset. (Crisitunity)

Our full ratings chart is available here.

While we’ve been very high on this race for a long, long time, we’ve always been aware that this is Alaska, and Don Young has seldom been threatened since he first captured this seat in the early 1970s. But lately, The Donald seems to get less and less popular with each passing year, and this cycle is no exception. Young has never lead in a single poll released since 2007, which is pretty remarkable. Pollster.com counts sixteen polls showing Young trailing, and while the man has come from behind before, he hasn’t done so in a time of extraordinary change in Alaska’s political culture — Ted Stevens is set to go to jail, and voters seem poised to give the boot to a beloved Senator. It seems hard to believe that they’ll stick with a Representative under FBI investigation whom many dislike.

Yes, Young overcame tough odds to win his primary, but only barely — and that was after one of the most inept campaigns ever witnessed by Sean Parnell and the Club For Growth. While I do not believe that Democrat Ethan Berkowitz will win this race by a large margin, a Young victory on Tuesday would have to be considered a surprise. (James)

A 14-year Republican incumbent in an R+16 district in a dark-red state shouldn’t have much trouble getting reelected, even in today’s climate. But Mark Souder just keeps making it possible, with his apparently lukewarm approach to fundraising and campaigning. In 2006, he won by only 54-46 over Fort Wayne city councilor Tom Hayhurst; the DCCC smelled a missed opportunity here and, once attorney Mike Montagano showed some promise, the money spigots opened. The district’s lean and the NRCC’s furious defense may save Souder’s butt once again, but given Montagano’s strong polling (including an honest-to-gosh 3-point lead in a public poll) and the likely best Democratic presidential performance in Indiana in more than 40 years, it’s even tougher this year. (Crisitunity)

For a long while, this looked like it was going to be a top-tier barnburner of a race. Kay Barnes, the former mayor of Kansas City, was one of the DCCC’s first and most highly-touted recruits in 2007. The problem, though, is that much of the 6th District lies outside of metropolitan Kansas City, and GOP Rep. Sam Graves wasted no time in painting her as a big city liberal with “San Francisco values”. The bullshit either worked, or Graves’ campaign just never took off, because recent public polling has Graves opening up an 18-point lead over Barnes. Private polling is also pessimistic. (J)

When Kenny Hulshof retired from this seat to become gubernatorial roadkill, lots of Democrats saw some potential here… but who would have anticipated that this race, and not the highly touted MO-06, would be the one that turned into a Tossup as we entered the home stretch? It’s a combination of a particularly scrappy Dem candidate, state representative Judy Baker, with a strong base in the district’s major population center (Columbia), plus a rather bland GOPer in Blaine Luetkemeyer who emerged depleted from a bitter primary against a Club for Growth pod person (and has tapped into his own money to stay competitive). Baker has trailed in single digits in public polling (down 5 in R2K last week), and has led by as much as 4 in her own internals. The GOP probably has the natural edge in this rural R+7 district, but Baker has made a real race out of this. (C)

This race has flown under the radar all cycle, but we’ve decided that if there was one GOP-held seat that wasn’t on our competitive races list that has the very small possibility of not just being close but scraping out an upset, this is it. Virginia Foxx (something of a non-fictional version of Dana Carvey’s Church Lady) has, in her elections, underperformed this district’s dark-red R+15 inclinations, and Roy Carter, a well-known high school football coach, is a popular figure. A PPP poll from September showed Foxx up by only 2 (with an earlier PPP poll giving her a 10-pt. edge); at the time, it seemed fluky, but given Democratic strengths this year in North Carolina, even in the whiter areas (like this mountain district), who knows? (C)

This expensive, Republican-leaning district on New Jersey’s northern border was always going to be a tough nut to crack. But it looks like rabbi & psychologist Dennis Shulman has closed a lot of ground with uber-wingnut Scott Garrett and could be poised to deliver an upset. Shulman, a first-time candidate, has raised almost a million bucks and just got a dose of help from the DCCC.

He’s also gotten under Garrett’s skin, prompting shrill freak-outs and bizarre attacks. The only public polls of this race (by R2K) showed nice momentum for Shulman, while Garrett dangled below 50. It would still be an upset if Shulman were to win here, but a Dem victory now looks much more possible than at any time in the past. (David)

This race has moved hard and fast. We moved it to Likely R just a couple of weeks ago, and now we’re bumping it to Lean R. It seems that Rep. Henry Brown, Jr. never imagined he’d face a competitive race, and when he got one, he was utterly unprepared for the challenge. Maybe this isn’t so surprising: After all, Brown was so indignant about being prosecuted for burning down twenty acres of a national forest that he had the law changed so that acts like his would no longer be considered crimes. It’s not hard to imagine a schmuck like this growing entitled and complacent.

Since our last ratings adjustment, we’ve seen two polls which confirm Brown’s precarious position, even in this R+10 district. R2K showed him under 50, while SUSA gave him just a five-point lead. Dem Linda Ketner is a wealthy heiress (her father created the Food Lion chain of supermarkets) and has spent $700K of her own money on this race, addition to raising a million bucks the hard way. She could very well rock the political world come Tuesday. (D)

You have to reach back a long time to find a publicly-released poll where GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave had a lead over Democrat Betsy Markey. In fact, the last and only such poll was a Musgrave internal from March. While it’s tempting to keep an R+8 district like this in the tossup column, Musgrave has been getting utterly pasted both by the DCCC and the Defenders of Wildlife, while the NRCC has canceled most of its media buys for this race. A recent Musgrave TV ad claiming that Markey was headed for jail struck us, and other observers, as a desperate move. At this point, with Colorado on the verge of turning blue and faced with a well-funded and relentless campaign against her, we would consider a Musgrave victory to be something of a surprise. (James)

It’s a testament to just how bad this year is for Republicans that we can no longer give them a clear edge in this R+10 open seat race. Every publicly-released poll since September has shown this race to be within the margin of error, and Democrat Frank Kratovil has deftly run a campaign playing up his Eastern Shore roots (in contrast to Harris’s base in the western edge of the district). The DCCC has spent over $1.8 million on this race, putting Harris at a net cash disadvantage. While a Kratovil win here would still be a remarkable feat, we can no longer comfortably give Harris a clear edge. (J)

Nowhere is the Republicans’ collapse more pronounced than Michigan, where the McCain camp, great poker players that they are, publicly threw in the towel, leaving the local GOP to flail around on their own. Even before the economic collapse (and the McCain collapse), this Dem-trending D+0 district in the Detroit suburbs looked to present a challenge for Joe Knollenberg, who almost lost a surprisingly close race to a low-profile candidate in 2006 and now faced his biggest challenge yet in former state senator and lottery commissioner Gary Peters. Post-collapse, Peters has reeled off one unanswered internal poll victory after another, culminating in a 10-point lead last week. (Crisitunity)

What does Randy Kuhl have going for him? Not the polls: he’s been down by 7 points to Democratic challenger Eric Massa in both the public polls of this race. Not likeability: his favorables clock in at 33-44. Certainly not fundraising: he’s lagged Massa in both 1Q and 3Q and ended 3Q with less CoH than Massa. I suppose he can rely on the district’s R+5 lean… except those two polls both showed Obama leading in this rural upstate New York district. Throw in nagging retirement rumors and now a big gaffe (Suffer-gate), and the math just doesn’t add up for Kuhl. (C)

Public and private polls both show Democratic attorney Tom Perriello closing in on Virgil Goode in this tough R+6 district, and the DCCC has stepped up with over $700,000 in late-breaking expenditures on his behalf.

Goode has taken to the airwaves to hit Perriello over social wedge issues and his time spent outside the district, and that might carry some weight, but probably not as much as it would have in past years. Sensing danger, the NRCC has responded with its own attacks against Perriello. While Goode still has to be considered favored here, it will likely be his closest race in quite some time — and an upset itself cannot be ruled out. (J)

Democrat Gary Trauner’s done everything right in this R+19 district (formerly Dick Cheney’s seat) – run an aggressive campaign, raised a lot of money, won over the right people (including an endorsement from the notoriously non-partisan Dem Gov. Dave Freudenthal). The problem is that with the departure of Barbara Cubin (a western Jean Schmidt), all that may not be enough. Several polls have showed a tied race here, but we’ve got to believe that the bulk of those undecideds will come home for the Republican, Cynthia Lummis. Still, the DCCC has spent heavily here (over $800K, a ton in this super-cheap media market), and Trauner has a shot here. (David)

There was no question Obama suffered from an “Appalachia problem” in the primaries, a key factor which led SSP to conclude that Democrat Anne Barth would face a seriously uphill climb in this district. And that’s on top of everything else staring Barth down in WV-02: A pretty popular long-term incumbent (with a famous name), a conservative lean to the region, and a late start. (Barth was a last-minute replacement.)

But now, Obama is polling far better here than we originally imagined he might, suggesting that WV still believes in its ancestral Democratic roots. He almost certainly won’t win the state, but his Pollster average is on par with Kerry’s take, and many individual polls have shown the race here closer. And Barth, who has raised pretty well herself, has seen a late infusion of about half a mil from the DCCC. Shelley Moore Capito only got 57% against an underfunded challenger in 2006; she’s still the favorite to hang on, but she could very well lose this time. (D)