Tag: SSP House Race Ratings

This just in: State Rep. Michael Jackson (D-Baton Rouge) has filed to run against Democrat Don Cazayoux as an independent.

For more thoughts on what this means for Cazayoux, see our discussion from yesterday.

In light of this development, SSP has shifted its rating of this race from “Leans Democratic” to Tossup.

With Staten Island Republicans still searching for a candidate a week after the death of Frank Powers, the Swing State Project is changing its rating of this race from “Tossup” to “Leans Democratic“.

Democrats landed a top tier candidate for this race in NYC Councilman Mike McMahon, who is rumored to have raised up to $400,000 for his campaign already. Meanwhile, the Staten Island GOP’s cold treatment of ex-Assemblyman Matthew Mirones, who was briefly considering stepping up for Team Red last week before he declined to run, left one local Republican insider exasperated: “It looks like they have been bending over backward to hand this race to Mike [McMahon].”

Richmond Republicans gathered fewer than 2000 signatures for Powers before his death. This is a bit more than the the 1,250 technically required to secure a place on the ballot, and party bigs can appoint a replacement candidate to Powers’s spot. But they might not have enough sigs to ensure that they’ll withstand potential legal challenges from Democrats – it’s very easy to knock out invalid signatures in NY. So the clock is ticking for the GOP to find an actual candidate and gather the required signatures before the state’s July 10th filing deadline.

If a replacement can’t be found, the GOP may have to fall back on unpopular physician Jamshad Wyne, the only currently announced candidate. Wyne would start the race in an extremely awkward position: he endorsed McMahon back in May. You can just imagine the Dem lit. Needless to say, this is not a match-up that the GOP would relish. Alternately, the Republicans might line up behind Conservative Party nominee Paul Atanasio, who lives in Brooklyn, was once involved in a nepotism scandal at a city agency, and – the best part – is not even a registered Republican.

Further complicating the GOP’s efforts to find a competent challenger is the DCCC’s decision to reserve $2.1 million in air time for this race. Is there any candidate out there who is willing to rush head-first into that kind of artillery barrage? If so, SSP may revisit its rating, but in light of the Staten Island GOP’s misfortunes and foibles, Democrats clearly have the upper hand in this race for the time being.

SSP’s complete list of House race ratings is available here.

Races to Watch:

Today’s Ratings Changes:

CA-04 (Open): Leans Republican to Likely Republican

Democrat Charlie Brown probably got the less formidable opponent when Conservative Icon Tom McClintock beat former Rep. Doug Ose in the GOP primary here. But despite McClintock’s baggage from several failed statewide bids and his carpetbagging ways, Brown will have a hell of a time getting the 50% he needs in this R+11 seat. While he does indeed have a fighting chance, McCain is likely to dominate in this district at the top the ticket, giving a crucial advantage to the somewhat damaged McClintock.

NE-02 (Terry): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

Nebraska’s 2nd CD featured a surprisingly close contest in 2006, when Democrat Jim Esch fell short of incumbent Lee Terry by 10 points. However, there are signs that this Omaha-based district may be competitive on the presidential level this year, with a recent poll by SurveyUSA showing Obama within spitting distance of McCain here. Indeed, Terry has been quite vocal about Obama’s strength in the district, even going so far as to attempt to tie himself to Obama by hyping the many “Obama-Terry voters” who are sprouting up across the district, looking for “the right kind of change”. That kind of talk raises serious alarm bells.

Jim Esch is back for a rematch and has raised a fairly considerable amount of start-up money since he kicked off his bid in late February. An upset can’t be ruled out here.

OH-07 (Open): Safe Republican to Likely Republcan

Few expected this R+6 open seat to become competitive after state Sen. Steve Austria stepped up for the GOP here and early Democratic recruitment efforts bore no fruit. But Democratic attorney Sharen Neuhardt has raised a respectable amount of money, and had a cash-on-hand parity with Austria at the beginning of April. A recent poll for Neuhardt turned a lot of heads: it showed Austria leading only by a 41-35 margin, and on the generic ballot, Democrats had 46-33 advantage over the Republicans. Moreover, Austria may not be all that and a bag o’ chips; in the GOP primary, the Dayton Daily News gave him the most tepid of endorsements, saying that while he “has offended no important person or constituency,” he does not share retiring Rep. Dave Hobson’s “tough independence of mind and political incisiveness” and would likely spend his career of ho-hum service on the back benches.

Races like this one will serve as a key test of just how bad 2008 will be for the GOP.

TX-10 (McCaul): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

Last summer, we singled out TX-10 as a district that could turn some heads this year. Despite its R+13 lean, it is trending in the right direction: Gore won 34% of its vote in 2000, while Kerry earned 38% in 2004. And without a home state hero at the top of the ticket, the Democratic performance here could improve once again.

The biggest tell here may have been McCaul’s 2006 performance, where he badly outspent his unknown Democratic opponent yet only walked away with a 55-41 result to show for it. However, McCaul won’t have the luxury of facing off with an underfunded opponent this year. Democrat Larry Joe Doherty, an attorney and local cable TV celebrity, has already raised an impressive amount, and a recent poll by the Texas-based IVR Polls shows McCaul leading Doherty only by six points.

Keep an eye on this one.

What’s your take?

Republicans talked a good game at the start of the cycle about the wealth of pick-up opportunities they had in 2008. SSP favorite Tom Cole, boasted of his party’s chances in the Almanac of American Politics that “2008 will be a year to hunt with a shotgun, not a rifle.” Sure, but look who’s holding the gun now.

One such district that the GOP hoped to put in play was North Carolina’s 11th CD, an R+7 district that supported Bush by a 14-point margin in 2004. But things haven’t gone exactly as planned.

First, ex-Rep. Charles Taylor, whom Shuler beat by a healthy margin in ’06, dithered on whether he’d seek a rematch for most of 2007, putting a serious damper on candidate recruitment. When all was said and done, the GOP was left with two recruits: Asheville City Councilor Carl Mumpower and Henderson Co. GOP Chair Spence Campbell. While Campbell had more fundraising potential (he had raised and self-funded a total of $217K through April 16), Mumpower won the May 6th primary.

A Mumpower candidacy brings a number of problems for Republicans. First, he’s not exactly well-funded. As of April 16, he’s only raised $27,000 and has $2000 on-hand. And it sure doesn’t sound like the situation is going to improve any time soon:

Republican candidate for Congress in the 11th Congressional District Carl Mumpower sees a new path to Capital Hill, and it is paved with $5 bills. Mumpower launched a new campaign strategy to fund his run for Congress with $5 donations. Called the “Lincoln Campaign,” the effort seeks to distance Mumpower from political action committees and large-dollar donors.

“I am committed to not accepting any PAC, union, party, or other special interest monies to help me buy a seat in,” Mumpower said in a released statement.

Yup, that’s right — his fundraising will come in $5 increments. He even told the NRCC to shove it:

“I got a call from the NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) earlier today,” Mumpower said Wednesday afternoon. “And I told them we were not interested in their money. I believe that organization has passively supported our leadership in abandoning their principles, and I have no interest in aligning myself with a self-serving organization.”

Mumpower said he got quite a reaction for that stance.

“I think they were a little stunned,” Mumpower said. “Maybe there’s a better word for that. I think they were a little surprised. But I’m not interested in the tail wagging the dog. I’m going to run an authentic maverick campaign.”

In this case, I definitely think we can all agree that Mumpower actually is running an “authentic maverick campaign.” Take his recent comments arguing that President Bush should be impeached for his failure to adequately protect the border. That might be one way to “distance yourself” from an unpopular president, but it’s not going to help you raise the funds and profile needed to defeat an incumbent who hasn’t made any fireable offenses in his first term in office.

Due to Mumpower’s sheer flakiness, SSP is changing its rating of this race from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.

SSP’s full House race ratings are available here.

With the field set for the open seat battle in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District, the Swing State Project is updating its rating of this race from Tossup to Leans Democratic.

A D+0.5 district that Bush won narrowly in 2004, Republicans considered this race a rare pickup opportunity in a bad cycle.  But a number of events give the Democratic nominee, state Sen. Kurt Schrader, the early edge:

1) The GOP primary was especially brutal, with frequent candidate Kevin Mannix releasing allegations that businessman Mike Erickson had a hard-partying (not-so-distant) past that included recreational cocaine use and impregnating his girlfriend and paying for her abortion.  Erickson survived the primary, but in part due to Oregon’s mail-in ballot system.  Late deciding voters favored Mannix by 14 points in SurveyUSA’s final poll of the race, but by that point, too many voters had already cast their lot with Erickson before the allegations had their full effect.

2) Erickson is entering the general election campaign badly wounded in the press and among the GOP faithful.  Mannix issued this scathing non-endorsement today:

“I will not support him because he’s a dishonest person and that’s my bottom line,” Mannix told the Politico. “I cannot support a dishonest campaign. I need to stick to my principles here, and he’ll have to deal with it. That doesn’t mean I’m endorsing or supporting the Democrat, but I’m not doing anything for him.”

On top of that, Oregon Right to Life had asked Erickson to drop out of the race, and they’re refusing to support him in his general election bid.  Ouch.

3) Just as compelling is the rapid Democratic trend in the district’s voter registration tallies.  As recently as January, Republicans had a voter registration edge of 146,394 to 142,557 for the Democrats.  The April numbers show a dramatic turnaround: Democrats now have a voter registration advantage of 161,384 to the GOP’s 143,365.  So while Democrats have increased in number in this district, Republican registration has actually seen a slight decline.

While this race could still be competitive, the burden is now on Erickson to prove that it is.

Our full list of race ratings is available here.

In the wake of Democrat Travis Childers’ stunning eight-point special election victory over Republican Greg Davis in Mississippi’s 1st District last night, the Swing State Project is moving its rating of this race from “Tossup” to “Leans Democratic“.  Several factors give Childers the edge here:

1) First, the size of his victory.  At 8 points, this wasn’t nearly as close as many had predicted.  In fact, it was a romp.  After winning 16 of the district’s 24 counties on April 22, Childers won a stunning 20 of 24 counties last night, improving his performance virtually across the board. Notably, he even improved upon his 17% in the ultra-conservative DeSoto County (Davis’ base), winning a full 25% of the vote there in the second round.

2) While John McCain will likely carry this district by a wide margin in November, Childers now enjoys the advantage of incumbency for a brief time. And, if the history of Mississippi’s congressional delegation tells us anything, Mississippi voters like their incumbents.

3) Most importantly, history is not on Greg Davis’ side here. It is extremely rare for the victor of a special election to be defeated in the next general election. Indeed, the only recent example of this scenario occurring was in the 1998 elections, when Republican Bill Redmond of New Mexico lost the Democratic-leaning seat that he won in a 1997 special election. Of course, Redmond’s special election win was a truly special circumstance: a strong Green Party candidate won 17% and split the left-leaning vote. Davis has no such excuse here.

4) Finally, Davis may be left out in the cold by the national GOP the second time around.  The NRCC dumped $1.3 million into the special election here — nearly 20% of their cash-on-hand at the beginning of April — and came up astonishingly short. The NRCC may decide, given their enormous financial disadvantage, that they may have other priorities this fall — like saving their incumbents. The same goes for Freedom’s Crotch.

The full list of SSP’s House Race Ratings is available here.

Safe D:

     NY-13 (Open)

Races to Watch:

Last Updated: November 2, 2008 at 11:30 PM

Previous Ratings

In the wake of what appears to be a career-ending scandal for Staten Island GOP Rep. Vito Fossella, the Swing State Project is updating its NY-13 race rating from “Likely Republican” to “Tossup“.

If Fossella resigns (as is rumored), the special election is sure to be a top-tier affair in this D+1 district for both Republicans and Democrats.  Arcane rules will allow party leaders to choose their most favored candidates — which would allow Democrats to make an upgrade from their current field (Brooklynites Stephen Harrison and Domenic Recchia).  Should Fossella decide to serve the remainder of his term and then retire from the House, new candidates are sure to get in on both sides.

If Fossella does the unthinkable and continues his re-election campaign, he’ll stagger onward with deep if not mortal wounds. Again, we would expect new challengers to emerge, both Republican and Democrat.

Culturally more conservative than the rest of New York City, NY-13 still favored Al Gore in 2000 by eight points.  The GOP has a deep bench on Staten Island, but if Democrats can recruit a Richmond resident for this race, the outcome will be anyone’s guess.

Races to Watch:

Ratings Changes Since 3/24 (prior ratings):

AK-AL (Young): Leans Democratic to Tossup

Alright, a mistake’s a mistake. Nothing changed here since the last time we posted these ratings, but the truth of it is: “Leans Democratic” is getting a bit too ahead of ourselves here. Sure, Young may be lagging behind his Democratic challengers in every public poll since the fall, but this is an awfully red state that has broken Democratic hearts before. Moreover, it’s still unclear if Young will make his way back onto the November ballot. A tossup this shall remain, for now.

LA-06 (Cazayoux): Tossup to Leans Democratic

Don Cazayoux’s newfound incumbency advantage, however small, and the unclear nature of the GOP field in this district gives him the advantage for the time being. However, if the GOP nominates a strong candidate, or if Democratic state Rep. Michael Jackson pursues his independent candidacy, this rating will likely have to be revisited.

MS-01 (Open): Likely Republican to Tossup

An undeniable tossup. Democrat Travis Childers stunned the Beltway crowd by posting a 49%-46% lead in the special primary here, and the GOP has reacted with ferocious desperation.

NJ-05 (Garrett): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

Rabbi Dennis Shulman has shown some strong early signs of viability here. At the end of March, he was sitting on $246K cash-on-hand to Garrett’s lackluster $458K. Between Shulman’s compelling profile and Garrett’s ultra-conservative record, this race definitely deserves to be added to the big board.

OH-14 (LaTourette): Likely Republican to Safe Republican/Races to Watch

LaTourette, who occupies a competitive, R+2.2 distirct, may look like a compelling target on paper, but Democrat Bill O’Neill (who, in 2006, ran for state Supreme Court on a “no money” campaign and platform) has been a weak fundraiser so far. With O’Neill holding less than $50K on-hand, we have to take LaTourette off the board for now.

PA-18 (Murphy): Likely Republican to Safe Republican/Races to Watch

Democrats made noises early on in the cycle about giving Murphy a stiff challenge in this R+2.2 district. But the none of the candidates who ran for the Democratic nomination caught much fire here, and the presumed front runner, consultant Beth Hafer, lost her primary to businessman Steve O’Donnell. O’Donnell has given his campaign a little bit of money, but he hasn’t shown any fundraising prowess so far. This one moves off the big board until he shows us more.

TX-22 (Lampson): Leans Democratic to Tossup

Republicans dodged a major bullet here by not nominating the ridiculous Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. Pete Olson may not be anything remarkable, but he doesn’t need to be in a district this red (R+14.5).

What’s your take?

Likely D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean R	Likely R
CT-02 (Courtney) CT-05 (Murphy) GA-12 (Barrow) IL-08 (Bean) IN-02 (Donnelly) IN-08 (Ellsworth) KS-03 (Moore) MN-01 (Walz) NC-11 (Shuler) NH-02 (Hodes) NY-19 (Hall) NY-24 (Arcuri) OH-18 (Space) PA-08 (Murphy) PA-11 (Kanjorski) TX-23 (Rodriguez)	AK-AL (Young) AZ-05 (Mitchell) AZ-08 (Giffords) CA-11 (McNerney) FL-16 (Mahoney) GA-08 (Marshall) IL-11 (Open) IL-14 (Foster) IN-09 (Hill) KS-02 (Boyda) KY-03 (Yarmuth) NH-01 (Shea-Porter) NY-20 (Gillibrand) NY-25 (Open) PA-04 (Altmire) PA-10 (Carney) TX-22 (Lampson) WI-08 (Kagen)	AL-05 (Open) AZ-01 (Open) LA-06 (Open) MN-03 (Open) NJ-03 (Open) NJ-07 (Open) NM-01 (Open) NY-26 (Open) OH-15 (Open) OH-16 (Open) OR-05 (Open) VA-11 (Open)	CA-04 (Open) CO-04 (Musgrave) CT-04 (Shays) IL-10 (Kirk) LA-04 (Open) MI-07 (Walberg) MI-09 (Knollenberg) MO-06 (Graves) NC-08 (Hayes) NV-03 (Porter) NY-29 (Kuhl) OH-01 (Chabot) OH-02 (Schmidt) WA-08 (Reichert)	AL-02 (Open) AZ-03 (Shadegg) CA-26 (Dreier) CA-46 (Rohrabacher) FL-08 (Keller) FL-13 (Buchanan) FL-15 (Open) FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart) FL-24 (Feeney) FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart) ID-01 (Sali) IL-06 (Roskam) IL-18 (Open) KY-02 (Open) MD-01 (Open) MN-06 (Bachmann) MO-09 (Open) MS-01 (Open) NM-02 (Open) NV-02 (Heller) NY-13 (Fossella) OH-14 (LaTourette) PA-06 (Gerlach) PA-18 (Murphy) VA-02 (Drake) VA-10 (Wolf) WV-02 (Capito) WY-AL (Open)

So here’s something new. Inspired by the likes of the Cook Political Report and CQ Politics, I’ve cooked up this chart of 2008’s competitive House races, sorted by their likeliness to be retained or lost by the incumbent party.

The standard caveats apply here: the ratings shown are only indicative of the current state of the races. As the campaigns become more engaged and more information becomes known, many of these seats will shift position on the chart — some, perhaps, dropping off altogether. That said, there will be opportunities for other races to be added if circumstances call for it.

Got a beef with our take? Want to post your own ratings? Stick ’em in the comments.