Tag: SSP House Race Ratings

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/23-25, likely voters):

Charlie Brown (D): 46

Tom McClintock (R): 41

(MoE: ±5%)

Earlier in the month, Brown posted a two-point lead over carpetbagging blockhead Tom McClintock in an internal poll conducted for his campaign. Both candidates have similar favorable numbers (41% for McClintock and 44% for Brown), but McClintock is a bit more banged up, posting a 35% unfavorable rating compared to Brown’s 25%.

The poll also identifies an 18-point gender gap in the race, with women preferring Brown by a 50-36 margin, but men siding with the Conservative Icon by 46-42. Independents also side with Brown by 49-33.

Brown still faces a tough Presidential headwind in this R+11 district (Bush won here by 59-36 and 61-37 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively), but the numbers are a bit better this time around: McCain leads Obama by 51-39. Even if most of those undecideds break to McCain, this will still be an improvement for Team Blue over the last two elections.

SSP is moving its rating of this race from “Likely Republican” to Lean Republican.

Why “Lean”, and not Tossup? Well, for one, we never underestimate the ability of Republicans to rally around their own in GOP strongholds. Brown still has the Presidential headwind to deal with, and those undecideds are still a tough nut to crack. But Brown is looking as good as he’s ever looked right now.

Races to Watch:

Today’s ratings changes:

CA-26 (Dreier): Likely Republican to Safe Republican

It’s time to separate the wheat from the chaff, so to speak. We held out hope for quite a while that Democrat Russ Warner would be able to make a race in this R+4 district — one of the very few plausible targets for Democrats in California — but this contest has never really climbed that far up the heat index. Despite running his campaign for over a year and a half, Warner has only been able to cobble together $651K and ended the second quarter with just $150K in the bank.

Incumbent GOP Rep. David Dreier bucked the nationwide trend in 2006 by spending some serious cash ($2.5 million) and scoring a 57-38 win over his unknown opponent — a significant improvement over his 53-43 margin in 2004. Dreier had $1.9 million on hand at the end of July — well more than he’ll need in order to swamp out Warner’s message this fall. Based on the nationwide dynamics, it’s not hard to imagine Warner climbing to as high as the mid-40s on election day, but it’s pretty tough to imagine him hitting 50% on his budget, barring some fabulous divine intervention.

CA-46 (Rohrabacher): Likely Republican to Safe Republican

I’m sorry to say it, but here’s the Swing State Project’s new Mendoza Line of the Swing: If you aren’t even listed on the DCCC’s Races to Watch list alongside the likes of Rob Hubler (IA-05) and Steve O’Donnell (PA-18), what chance do you really have? Many Dems started the cycle with high hopes for Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook. Like they used to say in Brooklyn, wait ’till next year!

CT-04 (Shays): Lean Republican to Tossup

There are a lot of words that describe Chris Shays: weenie, flip-flopper, Bush booster, and out-of-touch are a few of my personal favorites. But you can also call him “survivor”. Despite occupying a D+5.4 seat, Shays is the sole remaining House Republican in New England, and he has beaten back fierce challenges from Democrats before. However, many indications point to this year being his most challenging yet.

Shays faces Jim Himes, a progressive businessman who has spent the past several years as an executive at an affordable housing non-profit organization. Himes has been raising some serious dough, has kept pace with Shays in the money race, and has the benefit of a cash-flush DCCC to help tip the scales here. But more than that, we feel pretty confident in predicting that Connecticut’s 4th will not be a McCain-friendly district in November, and we also feel that Barack Obama’s candidacy will help energize the Democratic performance in Bridgeport — a Democratic area with a large black population that typically has seen underperforming voter turnout.

Recent unanswered internal polling for the Himes campaign suggests that this race is tied, and the DCCC has just begun exploiting Shays’ hopelessly deluded comments that “our economy is fundamentally strong” in this new ad. In a district heavily dependent on the financial services sector, Shays is particularly vulnerable in a time of economic turmoil. Hefty expenditures by the National Association of Realtors on his behalf, coupled by his perceived “moderate” image, will keep this race close.

FL-08 (Keller): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Ric Keller is unloved in the 8th District of Florida. If his surprisingly close 53-47 primary win earlier this month wasn’t proof enough, his Democratic opponent, attorney Alan Grayson, released a poll showing Keller trailing by four points. While we’re not yet convinced that that margin paints an accurate portrait of this race, we do believe that Keller has a lot of reasons to be sweating bullets in this R+3 Orlando-based district.

The biggest? The district’s Democratic voter registration surge. Dems cut the Republican voter registration advantage here from 14,400 in 2006 to 2,100 at the end of July — and things keep getting bluer (and more ethnically diverse) by the week. Grayson was a surprise primary winner here, and he still has a lot to prove in terms of fundraising (he has relied almost exclusively on his own coffers so far), but this match-up looks to be a real race.

GA-12 (Barrow): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

Under the rubric we use, a “Safe” rating means that we’re ruling out the possibility of an upset, even a remote one. While Barrow’s incredibly weak performance in 2006 kept this race on our big board for quite some time, it’s hard to imagine how a guy like John Stone, who had all of $8000 on-hand at the end of June, can pull off what Max Burns wasn’t able to do in 2006. Barrow will be aided by an uptick in African-American voters (this district is 45% black) who are energized to vote in the Presidential race for well-discussed reasons. To put an exclamation mark on how safe Barrow is, the National Rifle Association just endorsed him yesterday — something that the group rarely does for federal Dems.

IA-04 (Latham): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

While incumbent Rep. Tom Latham has to be considered favored in his bid for re-election at this point, at a PVI of D+0.4, this district is prime swing territory, and recent polls are showing a rather stark Obama surge in Iowa. Democrat Becky Greenwald’s fundraising could be stronger, but between her recent EMILY’s List endorsement and the state’s blue turn, we feel that there’s an outside chance of something interesting developing here.

ID-01 (Sali): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

See David’s post for our detailed rundown on this change. The bottom line: Bill Sali is the most collossally perfect fuckup the Republicans have on their roster, and Dem Walt Minnick is poised to take advantage of that.

IL-06 (Roskam): Likely Republican to Safe Republican

The prospect of Barack Obama’s home state coattails dragging Democrat Jill Morgenthaler kept this race alive on our list of long shots, but we no longer see such a scenario playing out. Peter Roskam held back an extremely well-funded Democratic challenge here in 2006, and Morgenthaler hasn’t been able to scrape together enough chump change to make this one interesting. Her role as apologist-spokesbot for the Army during the Abu Ghraib scandal made Morgenthaler toxic to many liberals from the get-go. And her ties to the hated Gov. Rod Blagojevich remain easily exploitable if Roskam should choose to “go there.”

IL-08 (Bean): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

Republicans fantasized that businessman Steve Greenberg could at least force another opportunity to make Democrat Melissa Bean sweat in this R+5 district. The only problem is that Greenberg hasn’t opened up his own pockets like the NRCC had hoped, and his fundraising has been anemic. It also sounds like Greenberg’s campaign has a few management issues. At the end of the day, Bean is an incumbent whose skills have been tested in the crucible of several close elections — she’s not liable to make a mistake in the final six weeks of the campaign. And with Obama at the top of the ticket, the Presidential headwind will be less of a factor for Bean to deal with. This race moves off the board.

IL-18 (Open): Likely Republican to Safe Republican

Oof. It pains us to make this change, but we feel that we have little choice. Regular SSP readers know that we love to torment Aaron Schock. Schock’s harebrained rants against Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama, as well as his widely-panned (and eventually retracted) idea to sell nukes to Taiwan leave us with no doubts that he’s little more than a glorified college Republican pissant. But in a conservative R+6 district, you need a solid Democratic campaign in order to win, and we haven’t seen one from Colleen Callahan, who continues to lag badly in both money and polls. Her only hope was to get on the air early and drive up Schock’s negatives to the point of unelectability. The problem is, the reverse seems to have happened. Callahan’s recent foot-in-mouth comments regarding reinstating the draft leave us unimpressed and disappointed in this race.

KY-02 (Open): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Multiple polls released over the past several months have shown Democrat David Boswell, a three-decade veteran of Kentucky politics, with a small lead over Republican Brett Guthrie for this R+13 open seat. The only problem is that, up until recently, Boswell hasn’t given much indication that he was willing to do the necessary grunt work of dialing for dollars. Case in point: he ended the month of June with only $45K in the bank. However, the DCCC has grown interested enough in this race to both add Boswell to its Red to Blue program and to reserve $840,000 in ad time for this race. Additionally, Boswell has gathered enough resources to begin airing his own ads. Boswell still has a lot to prove, but the DCCC’s heavy involvement here tells us that he has a fighting chance.

MD-01 (Open): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Democrat Frank Kratovil made a crucially huge score when he snagged the endorsement of moderate GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, the district’s incumbent who was unceremoniously defeated in the Republican primary by state Sen. Andy Harris. Kratovil still faces some stiff challenges in this R+10 district, but the most recent poll shows a tied race. Kratovil, a prosecutor from the district’s Eastern Shore, will have to in part make this a race about geography (Travis Childers-style), using Harris’ western base against him in the rest of the district.

NY-19 (Hall): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

In these troubled economic times, are the voters of suburban NYC really gonna turf their freshly-minted Democratic incumbent in favor of some punk wingnut? We don’t think so. Hall’s brief career has been all but flawless, and his fundraising has been exceptional. Lalor has a few coins to rub together, but not enough scrilla to make a difference.

PA-06 (Gerlach): Likely Republican to Safe Republican

The good news: The latest GOP poll here showed that Bob Roggio doubled his name recognition. The bad news that says it all: He’s now at 10%. If something was going to happen here, we’d already be seeing it. If this election was going to be 1932-sized monster wave, Roggio would be a logical choice to get swept along. But we’re not counting on a miracle here.

What is it with Bill Sali?

Here at the Swing State Project, we’ve followed his career closely ever since he first ran for Congress last cycle. Sali caught our attention with his extraordinary primary victory in 2006, chalking up a victory with an astounding 26% of the vote – this despite a major infusion of support from the Club for Growth. We thought we might have a real live one on our hands, a real nutter nobody liked. But just how disliked was he?

As it turns out, a whole hell of a lot. The Republican Speaker of the Idaho House said of Sali:

“That idiot is just an absolute idiot. He doesn’t have one ounce of empathy in his whole fricking body. And you can put that in the paper.”

The second-place finisher in the primary:

Today, in the Idaho Press-Tribune in Nampa, second-place finisher Robert Vasquez, a Canyon County commissioner, said he’d never vote for GOP primary victor Bill Sali because, “I would not and do not and cannot endorse a liar for Congress.”

Idaho’s other representative, Mike Simpson:

Simpson then told Sali: “If you want to debate this, I’ll put the House at ease and we can go back into my office and I’ll throw you out the window.”

Simpson & Sali’s fellow legislators:

Simpson said he was irritated but had no intention of assaulting Sali. He added, however, that as House colleagues heard the story, many told him, “The third floor wasn’t high enough. You should have taken him up to the fourth floor.”

The man Sali sought to replace, now-Gov. Butch Otter:

“Bruce has been a great speaker of the House,” Otter said. “And as he told me, he learned everything that he knows from Mike Simpson. And that is why every time he has a bad day, he goes and beats the hell out of Bill Sali.”

And Bill Sali himself:

And that’s just his own party. The maniacs at the Club for Growth had to bail Sali out yet again in the general, and even Dick Cheney spent some time hustling for dollars and votes in this district, which gave fully 70% of its vote to George Bush. In the end, Sali won just 50-45 over a Democrat he out-spent by 50%.

The amazing thing is that the fun never stopped with Bill Sali. Sometimes, serious screwups who manage to fail upward to the United States House of Representatives just learn to shut up and keep a low profile. Not Sali – he’s way too colossal for that.

Six months into his term, Sali’s approval rating stood at an impressive 29-46. Things clearly hadn’t changed much a year later, when he squeaked through a primary against a guy who raised just $70K with only 57% of the vote. (I guess compared to his first primary, that looked downright awesome.)

He managed to continue his winning ways by supporting an insurgent challenge to Gov. Otter’s preferred state party chair. Meanwhile, he stopped paying his consultant’s bills, carrying a debt of $76,000 – no small sum in Idaho, and a dangerous fuck-you to other campaign vendors in such a tightly-knit political community.

It gets better. John Boehner, doubtless gritting his teeth, helped defile the English language like a good Inner Party member by adding Sali to the “Regain Our Majority Program.” Yes, I know, you can’t regain the majority by buttressing incumbents, but maybe Boehner just didn’t feel like printing up different stationery.

Sali repaid the gesture with classic brain fade accuity. When the time came to file second-quarter fundraising reports, his finance staff declared that the dog ate their laptop. James Hell made this fine .TXT catch:

I am unable to file the 2nd quarter 2008 FEC report, as FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the Sali for Congress data file.  I first attempted to upload a file to the FEC site on June 6. I again tried on June 9, using the new FEC software update, without success. I then sent FEC technical support a copy of the Sali for Congress FEC file. FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the file so that it may be uploaded. I am in regular contact with FEC technical support and the FEC analyst, in an effort to resolve this matter.

It took these clowns twenty-six days to figure out how to file their report (the law gives you 15), and even then it was still a shambles – just like the rest of Sali’s campaign. He opened an office in – I kid you not – the wrong congressional district (Idaho’s only got two). But the best was announced just recently: as a cornerstone of his fundraising plan, Bill Sali plans to hold yard sales to fill his campaign coffers. No word yet if Plan B is to rummage through the county dump for some discarded treasures – but I think we can assume that’s probably on the list.

Meanwhile, Sali has drawn some very high-quality opposition in the form of businessman Walt Minnick. Minnick has consolidated support throughout Idaho and has also outraised Sali by a considerable margin – over $350K.

He’s impressed the DCCC, too – not only have they added him to the Red to Blue program, they’ve reserved $350K in ad time in the district, which will go along way in this cheap media market. Panicked, the NRCC responded with a $500K reservation, but will they really be able to afford to spend the full amount? And you just know Tom Cole is grimacing at the thought of having to shell out cash to save this jerkwad’s sorry ass.

SSP has long felt that, in the rubric we use, an upset could not be ruled out in this seat, just thanks to Sali’s poor political skills. But he’s managed to make things a whole lot worse in his brief time in office. He really is the perfect fuckup. Combined with a top-notch Democratic candidate who has run a flawless campaign, polling showing a competitive contest, and an environment which (even post-Palin) is still hostile for Republican incumbents, we feel compelled to upgrade this race to “Lean Republican”. For an R+19 seat, it’s not a decision we undertake lightly, but it’s a decision we feel is supported by all the available evidence, and one we’re comfortable making.

You can find the Swing State Project’s complete list of ratings for competitive House races here.

The Swing State Project is moving its rating of the race for Pennsylvania’s 11th District from “Lean Democratic” to “Tossup“.

A number of factors contribute to our decision here, not the least of which were three consecutive polls showing Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski trailing Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta. The DCCC released a poll of their own showing Kanjorski leading, but only with 48% of the vote — under the 50% bubble of vulnerability for an incumbent.

Barletta challenged Kanjorski in 2002 — not a great year for Democrats — and lost by a 56-42 margin. While it’s easy to dismiss Barletta out of hand because of that loss, it’s clear that in the interim years, Barletta has built a stronger profile, while Kanjorski has mired himself in controversy and gaffes. First there was the $10 million in earmarks that Kanjorski delivered to a failed anthracite technology company that was run by his relatives, then some inartful comments about the Iraq War that the GOP seized upon, and most recently, a disastrously bumbling interview with CBS on the subject of a controversial $5.6 million earmark to build a parking garage for a vacant office building (the “Kanjorski Center”) in his hometown of Nanticoke.

For his part, Barletta built a profile as a populist, anti-immigration crusader as mayor of Hazleton — an issue with some currency in this culturally conservative, working-class district. He has continued a populist theme on the campaign trail, hammering Kanjorski for spending campaign cash on limousine services “while hardworking district residents suffer.”

Money is the least of Kanjorski’s problems. He held a $2.2 million to $322K cash-on-hand advantage over Barletta, and has been saturating the airwaves since the early summer with ads. The DCCC and the National Association of Realtors continue to spend heavily in his defense, as well — but we can take this as an indication of something seriously wrong for an incumbent with such a wide financial advantage.

The word that’s been most often used to describe Kanjorski’s campaign skills is “rusty”. Well, we’re not really seeing the rust shaking off. This is one of the few districts where a Republican is beating the change drum and seeing some measure of success.

SSP’s latest batch of House race ratings changes:

AZ-01 (Open): Tossup to Lean Democratic

With the Democratic and Republican fields now set after last night’s primary, it’s now safe to acknowledge the Democratic lean of this contest — and it all comes down to candidate recruitment. The GOP’s top choices to run in the place of retiring Rep. Rick Renzi, including former state Senate President Ken Bennett and state Rep. Bill Konopnicki, all bailed on this race. Instead, the GOP has nominated Arizona Mining Association President Sydney Hay.

Having only raised $342K as of August 13th (compared to Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick’s $1.14 million), Hay is hardly a prolific fundraiser. Moreover, personal statements on the campaign trail and on her website reveal her to be part of the Bill Sali wing of the GOP party. Case in point: She has showered Alan Keyes with glowing praise. And despite being the front-runner for many months, Hay barely won her primary against physician Sandra Livingstone by a 40-36 margin. That’s a serious warning sign for the GOP.

Democrats, on the other hand, have nominated state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, a former prosecutor who has touted her law-and-order credentials in campaign advertising. Another tea leaf shows promise: Despite both primaries being contested, Democrats had a turn-out advantage of 51,248 to 41,646.

IN-02 (Donnelly): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

Two words sum up the campaign of mosquito-plagued Republican Luke Puckett: shit show.

I’d love to talk to you about fundraising and the like, but Puckett’s campaign has been plagued by something more than just mosquitoes lately: managerial incompetence. After filing reports with the FEC that indicated that Puckett had -$72K cash-on-hand (yes, negative seventy-two grand), the Puck fired his campaign treasurer (as humorously noted in a document filed with the FEC) and has been trying to sort the mess out ever since. Of course, he has another hole to urgently fill, as his campaign manager abruptly quit earlier this week.

With a PVI of R+4.1, Indiana’s 2nd CD was drawn to help elect a Democrat, and we have to believe that the top-of-the ticket dynamics are stronger than ever for Democrats here. Despite facing a tough road statewide in her gubernatorial race, Jill Long Thompson has unique strength in Northern Indiana and has been polling well in the region so far. Additionally, Barack Obama has been targeting the state as a bona fide swing state, and will likely post a stronger than usual performance in the state this November. Between the Democratic coordinated campaign and Puckett’s dismal operation, it’s hard to see how the GOP is in any condition to stage an upset here — even remotely.

NY-25 (Open): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

The benefit of the doubt is quickly slipping away from Onondaga County legislator Dale Sweetland, who is running to replacing retiring GOP Rep. Jim Walsh in this D+3.4 district. Sweetland has raised a paltry $193,000 for his campaign so far, and has $104K on-hand — a drop in the bucket compared to Democrat Dan Maffei’s $1.44 million raised and $578K on-hand. Given Maffei’s strong performance in 2006, and his heavy spending so far this summer on district-wide television advertising, Democrats are strongly favored to pick up this open seat. The GOP isn’t poised to put up much of a fight for this one.

Races to Watch:

Today’s ratings changes:

AL-02 (Open): Lean Republican to Tossup

Despite all the hype surrounding the DCCC’s recruitment of Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright, we have until now been skeptical of Bright’s ability to seal the deal in this conservative R+13.2 district. No longer.

Republicans emerged from their primary with deep divisions – divisions that Bright is now capitalizing on, as most recently evidenced by his endorsement from the Republican mayor of Dothan, the second-largest population center of the district. With two recent polls showing Bright leading by 10 points, the Republicans can no longer claim a clear edge here.

AL-03 (Rogers): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

This race is certainly still a long shot, but Alabama’s 3rd District was drawn to elect a Democrat, and it almost did so in 2002. GOP Rep. Mike Rogers has held this district since then with ease, but attorney Josh Segall’s fundraising (he’s raised $521K since starting his campaign earlier this year) and the district’s demographics can’t be ignored.

CO-04 (Musgrave): Lean Republican to Tossup

All is not well in Musgraveland. A divisive reputation and years of being pounded by negative third-party ads seems to have taken a heavy toll on GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave’s political health. The two most recent polls of this race have shown the incumbent trailing Democrat Betsy Markey by seven points in this Dem-trending R+8.4 district (the SUSA poll showed the presidential race nearly tied). The NRCC’s decision to reserve a whopping $1.2 million in ad time for this district is quite telling, too. A tossup this is.

MI-07 (Walberg): Lean Republican to Tossup

Democrat Mark Schauer, a state senator, is a proven vote-getter in the conservative-leaning Battle Creek area, but his campaign against frosh GOP weirdo Tim Walberg has yet to engage fully. However, the cold hard reality of the numbers are catching up to Walberg — a recent EPIC-MRA poll shows his lead shrinking to a mere three points, while his job approval rating is in the dumps. With voters clearly frustrated with the status quo in Michigan, Walberg’s political fate is very much up in the air.

NH-02 (Hodes): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

Under the rubric we use to rate races at SSP, a race in the “likely” column is one where an upset cannot be completely, entirely ruled out. We’re pretty sure that we can rule one out in New Hampshire’s 2nd District. Democrat Paul Hodes has by all accounts performed well in his first term in office, and all the polls we’ve seen confirm this. Hodes’ Republican challengers are a sorry lot, and are squandering their meager resources on a meaningless and mostly annoying primary. The eventual GOP victor does not stand a ghost of a chance against Hodes in November in this Dem-trending district.

NY-13 (Open): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

It’s hard to believe, but the GOP’s chances of retaining this Staten Island-based district get worse and worse by the week. The only real candidate that the GOP could find, former state Assemblyman Robert Straniere, is both hated and unloved. And it shows in his fundraising, with only a paltry $15,000 raised for his campaign so far. Furthermore, his primary against physician Jamshad Wyne has taken a turn for the ugly and racist. The cherry on top? Straniere admits that he can’t even vote for himself in the primary, as he lives in Manhattan — very much a game killer in the parochial nature of Staten Island politics. Meanwhile, Democrat Mike McMahon continues to steamroll in fundraising.

NY-26 (Open): Tossup to Lean Republican

We don’t enjoy making this call, but it’s hard to deny that Democrats have engaged in a damaging and resource-draining primary here between nutjob billionaire Jack Davis, Iraq vet Jon Powers, and attorney Alice Kryzan. Davis, in particular, has leveled some damaging accusations against Powers’ charity work on behalf of Iraqi children that continue to cause unwanted headaches for his campaign. Moreover, Davis himself is crazy as fuck, and there’s a very real chance that he could win the primary here due to his massive spending and name ID advantage from two previous campaigns. If so, we may be looking at a Likely R race against the relatively noncontroversial (so far) and well-funded Republican businessman Chris Lee.

If this winds up being a Powers-Lee race, this could return to tossup state at some point, especially if the DCCC brings its considerable resources to bear and if the NRCC can’t follow suit.

PA-03 (English): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

The GOP’s poll numbers in this R+1.6 district must be atrocious, because incumbent Phil English has clearly hit the panic button with a summer full of defensive campaign ads, and the NRCC itself has set aside over $800K in ad time to attack Democratic candidate Kathy Dahlkemper. Does that sound like behavior that merits a “Likely Republican” rating to you? Yeah, me neither.

Races to Watch:

Today’s Ratings Changes:

LA-04 (Open): Lean Republican to Tossup

Democrats have a key advantage to help offset the Republican lean of this ancestrally Democratic but R+6.5 district: namely, a big gap in recruitment quality. Democrat Paul Carmouche has served as the District Attorney of Caddo Parish, the most populous parish of the district, for 30 years, and is expected to romp in the September primary. The Republican field is more fluid (and less impressive): trucking executive Chris Gorman, Chamber of Commerce official Jeff Thompson, and physician John Fleming have all raised or loaned themselves credible amounts, and it’s possible that the GOP primary won’t be decided until the October 4th runoff.

Carmouche has out-raised and out-banked his GOP opponents, and is leading the field in his campaign’s internal polling so far. While that gap may close once the GOP candidates raise their name recognition, Carmouche’s law and order credentials and conservative style are a solid fit for this district, and the DCCC has already reserved a big chunk of ad time in this dirt cheap media market.

LA-07 (Boustany): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

A late-breaking race, the odds are long for Democrats in this R+7.4 district, but the DCCC’s recruitment of state Senator Don Cravins, Jr. makes this contest a bit more interesting. A self-styled conservative Democrat, Cravins raised an impressive $107,000 in the last two weeks of June, and has since been added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program. While Cravins, who is African-American, would have to beat history in order to become elected in this 25% black district, it’s a challenge worth paying attention to.

MO-09 (Open): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Despite enduring a not-so friendly primary, Republicans begin the general election campaign for the open seat of GOP Rep. Kenny Hulshof with an early edge in this R+6.5 district. Democrats have a credible candidate in state Rep. Judy Baker, who by all accounts ran a strong campaign to win her primary against a former state House speaker and Senate minority leader. The DCCC is taking this race seriously, adding Baker to Red to Blue and placing a $940,000 ad time reservation, which could help narrow the race this fall.

Susquehanna Polling and Research for Lou Barletta (6/27-29, likely voters, 3/27-29 in parens):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 41 (42)

Lou Barletta (R): 45 (47)

(MoE: ±5%)

Barletta coughs up another lead in a new internal poll, and although the numbers are probably best served with a grain of salt, it’s sort of telling that we haven’t seen rival numbers from Kanjorski or the DCCC. In fact, Kanjorski’s response to the poll doesn’t exactly inspire confidence:

A Kanjorski campaign spokesman declined to comment on the poll.

That’s the exact same response that Kanjorski’s camp gave in June. Weak, sir.

Kanjorski isn’t used to competitive campaigns, and the rust has clearly been showing in recent months with one gaffe after another. (Check out his latest bumbling interview with CBS news for his latest smash hit on the issue of earmarks.)

While it might be hard to believe that Barletta is leading (or will hold onto his lead) in a D+5 district, his aggressive populist campaign appears to be catching Kanjorski on the wrong footing.

SSP is changing its rating of this race from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic“.

The Swing State Project is upgrading its rating of the race for Nevada’s 3rd District from “Lean Republican” to “Tossup“.

Several factors have influenced our decision, not the least of which are two recent polls showing Porter in very rough shape. In both surveys, Porter is hovering near the 40% mark, well below the threshold of vulnerability for an incumbent. In an Anzalone-Liszt poll released today, Porter is actually trailing Titus by four points.

Titus is a well-known commodity in the district, and as we said earlier, she may stand to benefit from a sense of buyer’s remorse after voters narrowly opted to elect Jim Gibbons over her to the Governor’s mansion in 2006. (Gibbons has had a spectacularly awful and scandalous first term.) Even while losing her gubernatorial bid by four points, she won the 3rd District by two points. As a last-minute replacement candidate for attorney Robert Daskas, her fundraising has been stellar so far, and she won’t be hurting for outside assistance.

A D+1 district, the 3rd CD was designed to be fiercely competitive, but the winds seem to be shifting in the Democratic direction in recent months. According to the most recent numbers, Democrats have racked up a 24,000-strong voter registration advantage in the district.

This may be the type of environment that will finally do Jon Porter in.

Races to Watch:

Today’s Ratings Changes:

AL-02 (Open): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Republicans may have gotten their preferred choice for this race in state Rep. Jay Love, but he was battered heavily in a divisive primary against Wiregrass-area state Sen. Harri Anne Smith. Democrat Bobby Bright’s campaign smartly went up with a bio ad in Dothan, his birthplace, this past Wednesday in an effort to sway Smith supporters. Bright will likely have the airwaves largely to himself for a short period – at least while Love refills his coffers from the expensive and nasty primary. Love, who shares a geographic base with Bright, still has a clear edge in this R+13 district, but it is no longer a commanding one.

AL-05 (Open): Tossup to Lean Democratic

Republicans were initially quite giddy when longtime Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer retired, leaving his R+6.5 district for the taking, but candidate recruitment and fundraising are tilting the landscape in northern Alabama back to the Democrats. Democrat Parker Griffith, a state senator from Huntsville, significantly out-raised Republican Wayne Parker in the last quarter. Coupled with a divisive Republican runoff that drained Parker’s reserves, Griffith now holds a 5-to-1 CoH advantage in this traditionally Democratic district. Griffith has been airing ads portraying himself as a statesman ready to fill the chair of Bud Cramer, and most observers agree that he is a cut above Parker, who lost this district twice in the ’90s.

CA-50 (Bilbray): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

After dispatching Francine Busby in a high-profile special election in 2006 (and again that November), many Democrats were not sanguine about taking on the incumbent again in this R+4.6 district. But Democrat Nick Leibham has amassed some impressive fundraising numbers, out-raising Bilbray in the second quarter. An upset here is unlikely, but it can’t be completely ruled out in this slightly Dem-trending district.

CT-02 (Courtney): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

After Democrat Joe Courtney beat Rob Simmons by the closest of margins in this D+7.6 district in 2006, Republicans had hoped that Simmons could be convinced to try to reclaim his seat. Simmons passed on the idea, but national Republicans were initially high on Sean Sullivan, the former commanding officer of Groton’s submarine base, as an acceptable alternative. But Sullivan began his campaign with a resounding thud, refusing to devote serious time to fundraising and he quickly fell down – way down – the list of Republican targets. Sullivan’s most recent fundraising quarter was another dud, as he took in a mere $89K and is currently sitting on $155K cash-on-hand to Courtney’s $1.4 million. With no real resources in the bank and Courtney performing well for his district in Congress, it is difficult to imagine an upset in this blue district.

FL-15 (Open): Likely Republican to Safe Republican

Republican Bill Posey: $220K raised in the second quarter of 2008. Democrats Paul Rancatore and Steve Blythe: $18K raised (combined) in the second quarter. NEXT.

FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

When local prognosticators were asked last year to gauge how well Democrat and former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez would do in a hypothetical race against entrenched South Florida Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart, they pegged the race as a battle of the titans. Martinez has borne out those projections so far, raising a stunning $1.2 million since entering the race in January of this year.

FL-24 (Feeney): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

The ghost of Jack Abramoff continues to haunt Rep. Tom Feeney, and Democrat Suzanne Kosmas has really turned up the heat this year, out-raising and out-banking Feeney in both fundraising quarters this year. Feeney still has the advantage in this R+3.1 district, but the gap is closing.

FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Democrat Joe Garcia is turning up the heat on entrenched Republican Mario Diaz-Balart in this R+4.4 district. He recently posted a very impressive fundraising quarter, bringing in nearly $500K and closing in on Diaz-Balart’s cash-on-hand. Demographics are beginning to trend in the Democrats’ favor here, with Republicans hemorrhaging registered voters since the 2006 elections and Democrats adding thousands of voters to the rolls. A recent Bendixen poll has Garcia trailing Diaz-Balart by a mere five points. The money, numbers, and trends are leaving us feeling very good about the direction of this race.

IL-11 (Open): Lean Democratic to Tossup

One of the few downgrades for Democrats this round. This race began life on SSP’s charts as Lean D because the original hand-picked GOP candidate here, Tim Baldermann, dropped out after a brief and disastrous run. The Republicans floundered without a candidate for a while, before settling on what was (at the time) their twentieth choice: Martin Ozinga.

Things have changed quite a bit since. Ozinga hauled in a massive $810K in the second quarter, to Democrat Debbie Halvorson’s $405K. Meanwhile, Halvorson has been subjected to unrelenting attacks over her past ties to deeply unpopular Gov. Rod Blagojevich, as well sniping from fellow Illinois Democrats such as Jesse Jackson, Jr. The race is still very winnable for Team Blue, especially with Obama’s expected home-state coat-tails, but it looks to have gotten a lot more competitive of late.

IN-03 (Souder): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

Republican Mark Souder became an unlikely benefactor of NRCC assistance late in the 2006 cycle, despite occupying the 33rd most Republican district in the nation – and it appears that his laziness may cause him some more November pain this year. Democratic challenger Michael Montagano out-raised Souder in the last quarter and now holds a slight CoH advantage, making an upset unlikely but remotely possible given the anti-incumbent mood.

IN-08 (Ellsworth): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

After Democrat Brad Ellsworth torched incumbent Republican John Hostettler by a 22-point margin in 2006, few expected this seat to be particularly in danger this year, but GOP recruit Greg Goode, with a war chest of $50K, is sinking to Carl Mumpower-like levels in the fundraising race. This one is fast becoming hopeless for the hapless GOP.

NJ-03 (Open): Tossup to Lean Democratic

After a fractious GOP primary, Republican Chris Myers has $155K in the bank and is suddenly not looking like the stellar recruit that the NRCC made him out to be. (Surprise.) Meanwhile, Democrat John Adler has built up a massive fundraising edge with nearly $1.5 million on-hand. It would be difficult for anyone to not acknowledge the Democratic edge here in this D+3 district.

NM-02 (Open): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Democrats are fairly high on former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague, a wealthy oilman who both a strong fundraiser and a self-funder. While this is an R+5.7 district, Republican Ed Tinsley has residency issues, as he spends a significant amount of his time in Sante Fe (a “liberal” city outside the district). The DCCC has signaled that this race a priority for them, having reserved $1.2 million in ad time in this district.

PA-03 (English): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

Before the primary was settled here, the DCCC was high on Erie City Councilman Kyle Foust. His candidacy soon fizzled, and it seemed for a time that so did the Democratic hopes of picking up this district. But buzz has been building for Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper, who recently released an internal poll showing her leading GOP incumbent Phil English by a single point. While we will need to see stronger fundraising from Dahlkemper before we move this race up further, English is clearly scared, and this race is certainly heating up.

PA-15 (Dent): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

After a slow start in 2007, Democrat Sam Bennett has steadily improved her fundraising operation and nearly matched Dent in dollars raised during the most recent quarter. Given the district’s D+1.6 lean, an upset can’t be ruled out here if Bennett continues to build strength.

TX-07 (Culberson): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

Texas’ 7th CD is no doubt a Republican stronghold, but it’s been trending slightly Democratic since 2000. Democrat Michael Skelly, a wealthy wind energy pioneer, emerged out of nowhere earlier this year and has been raising and banking money at a breakneck speed. He also has the potential to pour much more of his own considerable resources into the race. While Culberson is still heavily favored, Skelly has proved that his campaign is for real and is making the incumbent sweat.

VA-02 (Drake): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Thelma Drake has always been damaged goods at best, winning her first election in 2004 with 55% of the vote and hanging on with just 51% in 2006. Democrat Glenn Nye has kept things relatively close in the cash-on-hand department and raised just $19K less than Drake this past quarter. What’s more, he was recently added to Red to Blue. On top of that, black voters have typically turned out in a proportion smaller than their numbers would suggest – the district’s black population is 21% – but that may be about to change. With Obama energizing folks at the top of the ticket and promising a massive registration campaign, this could tilt the balance in VA-02.

VA-05 (Goode): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

Democrat Tom Perriello has raised some good scratch here: $310K in the last quarter. That’s less than incumbent Virgil Goode’s $390K, but cycle-to-date, Perriello has actually brought in more money ($911K to $818K). That alone is enough to make this R+6 seat a closer race.

VA-11 (Open): Tossup to Lean Democratic

While lagging behind in the money race after an expensive primary, Democrat Gerry Connolly is far ahead of Republican Keith Fimian in terms of name recognition due to his tenure as chairman of the Fairfax Board of Supervisors. Connolly’s name recognition, combined with Northern Virginia’s rapid Democratic trend and the downballot boost provided by the Obama-Warner coordinated campaign give Connolly the early edge here.

WA-08 (Reichert): Lean Republican to Tossup

Of all the vulnerable Republican incumbents this year, we feel compelled to acknowledge that Dave Reichert is the first to lose a clear edge over his opponent, Democrat Darcy Burner. Reichert’s incumbency is less potent than other vulnerable incumbents in the Lean R column given his short tenure. Furthermore, he hasn’t been addressing his fundraising as seriously as other similarly-situated Republicans, allowing Burner to build a $1.25 million to $916K cash-on-hand advantage. In a tilt-Dem district (D+2.3) in a state and region where Obama is showing some early strength over McCain, Reichert is standing on shaky ground.