Uh oh; we finally have a Democratic open seat for 2008 that isn’t an automatic hold. The Oregonian (via Blue Oregon) reports that Darlene Hooley is retiring in OR-05.
She says:
Hooley, 68, who spent time in the hospital in November, said health was not a reason for her decision not to seek a seventh term. “I’ve never felt better,” she said in an interview.
Instead, she said it was the cumulative effect of arduous travel, the relentless demands of fund-raising and 32 years of public service that converged into a decision.
“At some point in everybody’s life you have to decide, how much longer do I want to do this?” she said.
“It’s time to move on.”
OR-05 is a D+1 district. Hooley has represented it since 1996 (when she beat Jim Bunn, one of the more aberrant members of the Class of 94). She’s a New Dem, and somewhat to the right of the Dem caucus’s midpoint with a Progressive Punch score in the low 80s.
This district has a Democratic tradition, but it currently has a 5,000 registered voter edge for the GOP. The district is a mix of Portland burbs (the more affluent ones lean GOP, the more middle-class ones lean Dem), exurbs (very GOP), Salem (lean Dem), part of Corvallis (very Dem), and rural farm areas (very GOP). It has a rapidly growing Latino population, but they probably aren’t voting much yet. (It’s currently 81% white, 13% Latino. It’s Oregon’s 2nd most affluent district, although that’s certainly skewed upwards by burbs like Lake Oswego and West Linn.)
Mike Erickson, who ran in 2006, is running again on the GOP side. He held her to about 55-45 in 2006 and can self-finance, so he has the potential to make this a very competitive race.
PolitickerOR speculates that her chief of staff, Joan Mooney Evans, will leap into the race. Another possibility they mention is new House Majority Leader Dave Hunt. A name that also occurred to me is Jim Hill, who used to represent Salem in the state senate, then was state treasurer, and most recently primaried governor Ted Kulongoski from the left in the 2006 election.
Bottom line: this will be the Dems’ most difficult open seat to hold, although that’s mostly by virtue of their other open seats being pretty easy. Erickson has an advantage in running a second time, but he’ll be going uphill against another blue tide, and the Dems have a decent bench to pick from here.
Romney dropped out today, essentially handing the GOP presidential nomination to McCain. McCain will put Oregon into play thanks to Oregonians’ refusal to admit that there’s no such thing as a truly moderate Republican anymore, and hasn’t been since Mark Hatfield retired over a decade ago. Just like they can’t bring themselves to admit that they haven’t properly planned for growth, yet get offended whenever anyone brings up the issue of Portland’s pathetically inadequate highway system and how no one is doing anything to manage the traffic flow to account for the metric ton of people moving there. The state Democratic party already has a major battle to fight in OR-Sen, which just got a lot harder now that McCain is the nominee and will tug on Oregonians’ natural sensibilities to favor moderate Republicans, to Gordon Smith’s advantage. Hooley, sitting on the biggest swing district in a not-insignificant swing state a month before the filing deadline has to pick this very moment to retire, quite possibly opening the door for a Republican to take her seat on McCain’s coattails? What the hell is wrong with her?
I hope I’m wrong, but McCain is going to be competitive in Oregon and could easily win the state in November if the Democratic candidate doesn’t make an effort to win back any moderate R states that have been Democratic recently but might bolt to McCain. If McCain wins Oregon, you can bet he’ll take Gordo and (quite possibly) OR-05 with him. The Democrats have the fundraising and public sentiment advantage nationally, but the last thing we need right now is more competitive races in barely-blue states like Oregon.
and nominate Hillary, we will lose this seat. This is the kind of district where we cannot afford to have higher than usual Republican turnout in and Hillary Clinton would do just that. Nominate Hillary and lose this seat.
This district should not be as tough as I had thought for us to hold. While Bush carried it by an eyelash in 2000 and 2004, it went for Dukakis in 1988 by 50%-48%, 40%-35% for Clinton in 1992, and 49%-42% for Clinton in 1996. This is not a district that is going to support a wingnut Republican in anything other than a 1994 style year.