SSP Daily Digest: 10/12 (Afternoon Edition)

• WI-Sen, WI-Gov: Russ Feingold and Tom Barrett are both out with internal polls today, both from the same pollster (Fairbanks Maslin), both showing tied races. The Senate poll (Oct. 7, and 10-11) shows Russ Feingold and Ron Johnson tied at 48-48. The gubernatorial poll was an entirely separate sample, Oct. 5-7, showing Tom Barrett and Scott Walker are at 47-47.

• GA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage (10/10, likely voters, 9/27 in parens):

Roy Barnes (D): 41 (37)

Nathan Deal (R): 49 (45)

John Monds (L): 3 (5)

Undecided: 7 (13)

(MoE: ±4%)

If you’re wondering about downballot races, IA also has GOPer Casey Cagle leading Carol Porter in the LG race, 50-36, and GOPer Sam Olen leading Ken Hodges in the AG race, 50-40. Also, if you’re wondering how Nathan Deal seemed to regain his footing after a few rocky weeks where the race was seemingly tied, a lot of that seems to have to do with the RGA pouring money into this race ($3.2 million worth), as they’ve tacitly made this race one of their top priorities.

• AZ-05: Although this is an internal poll that has the GOPer leading the incumbent Dem, it’s a little on the lackluster side. David Schweikert responds to the DCCC internal giving Harry Mitchell an 7-point lead with his own poll showing him up by only 2, 45-43. (The poll was taken 10/5-6 by National Research.) An incumbent at 43% is no good, of course, but averaging the two polls out (for whatever that’s worth) gives Mitchell a small edge.

• NY-20, TN-08: What do these two races (one with a Blue Dog incumbent who seems in control of his race, the other an open seat with an aspiring Blue Dog not likely to win) have in common? In both races, the Dem said he wouldn’t support Nancy Pelosi for Speaker. Scott Murphy’s decision (granted, he’s more of a waffle than a flat-out “no”) is much more surprising than Roy Herron‘s; we’ll have to see if this becomes more of a trend in the closing weeks.

• OH-13: Tom Ganley has pulled his broadcast television advertising for the remaining weeks of the campaign, although he will be focusing on less-expensive cable and radio buys instead of going dark completely. He says that’s how he’s going to “cut through the clutter,” but somehow methinks the self-funder (savvy businessman that he is) realized that he shouldn’t throw his own money down the hole in a race that just got considerably more difficult once sex assault accusations started to fly. (H/t LookingOver.)

• PA-13: Here’s an unremarkable internal from a race where we shouldn’t even have to be looking at one: Allyson Schwartz, in the D+7 NE Philly district, leads Dee Adcock 57-32 in a 10/5-6 poll from Cooper & Secrest. Apparently this was released to combat rumors of a Republican internal showing it a single-digit race.

• SD-AL: This was the day’s big fundraising story until Sharron Angle showed up: the reason Kristi “Leadfoot” Noem was driving so fast was because she had to get to so many different donors’ houses. She raised $1.1 million for the quarter, compared to $550K for Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. That actually gives Noem the CoH edge, $770K to $500K.

• TN-03: Here’s one more place I wouldn’t think I’d be seeing an internal, considering that this GOP-held open seat in a dark-red district should be a slam-dunk this year, but I guess Chuck Fleischmann feels like he needs to look busy. The GOP nominee is leading Dem nominee John Wolfe by a 50-20 margin, in a poll (no dates) by Wilson Research.

• DCCC: More news on the triage front, on what’s apparently the last day to cancel ad reservations without taking a big financial hit. Having thrown Steve Driehaus overboard yesterday, the DCCC followed up today with Kathy Dahlkemper in PA-03 and Suzanne Kosmas in FL-24, who won’t get any more ad cover according to the NYT. Aaron Blake also tweets that open seats KS-03, IN-08, and TN-08 got the axe.

• AGs: You probably know Louis Jacobson of Governing magazine for his handicapping of state legislative chambers, but he also works the state AG beat (that’s often short for “Aspiring Governor,” so it’s a key bench-building step), and is out with handicapping for all the Attorney General races up this year. As you might expect, Dems should brace for some losses, especially in open seats.

• Gerrymandering: If there’s any place where people would be psyched to sit down and watch a movie about gerrymandering, it’s here at SSP. The movie’s creator is up with a diary here that lists all the theaters where it’s opening over the next month (including where he’ll be hosting Q&As). Some of them are one-night engagements, starting as early as tonight, so check out the listings ASAP!

• SSP TV:

• CO-Sen: The DSCC hits Ken Buck for his craptastic tenure working for the local US Attorney’s office

• KY-Sen: The DSCC goes back to the $2,000 Medicare deductible issue yet again to hit Rand Paul

• WA-Sen: I’m not sure why Washington Dems always wait until the last minute to remind voters that Dino Rossi is pro-life (that’s what happened in both gube races) — maybe they figure it’s their trump card — but they’re doing it again; meanwhile, the American Action Network hits Patty Murray by whipping up a second version of that weird Fred Davis ad with the tennis shoes walking on people

• WI-Sen: One of Russ Feingold’s myriad problems is that Ron Johnson actually comes up with some effective ads: this one’s a bio spot

• GA-Gov: Nathan Deal’s new ad hits Roy Barnes for having once said that “Mexican workers were good for Georgia”

• SC-Gov: The suddenly resurgent Vince Sheheen’s out with another spot, this one equating Nikki Haley to protégé Mark Sanford

• TX-Gov: Lone Star First (a DGA-backed group) hits Rick Perry on the HPV vaccine and links to Big Pharma

• OH-13: EMILY’s List steers clear of the sex assault allegations of Tom Ganley, going with a humorous spot on outsourcing and his 400 civil lawsuits at his car dealerships

• Rasmussen:

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 44%, Mark Kirk (R) 43%, LeAlan Jones (G) 4%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 34%, Rob Portman (R) 57%

• TN-Gov: Mike McWherter (D) 31%, Bill Haslam (R) 59%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 45%, Ron Johnson (R) 52%

• Rasmussen (as Fox/Pulse):

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 45%, Tom Foley (R) 41%

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 49%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 38%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 42%, John Kasich (R) 47%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 35%, Rob Portman (R) 52%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 46%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

• Angus-Reid: Another reason to be suspicious of Angus-Reid in addition to their Dem-friendly internet samples: they seem to have neglected to poll the actually interesting Senate race in New York…

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 63%, Carl Paladino (R) 32%

• NY-Sen: Charles Schumer (D) 67%, Jay Townsend (R) 27%

168 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/12 (Afternoon Edition)”

  2. Here are the survey results for the poll I saw referenced in a Business Week article late last night:

    http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/…

    The generic ballot looks decent for Dems at 42D/40R, though 12% choose “other”! I’m not sure what that means.

    On tax policy, only 34% want the Bush rates to continue for the upper income brackets.

    47% say they want HCR repealed, though in typically contradictory American fashion, most of the bill’s provisions are wildly popular, including: Preexisting conditions exclusions (75% approval), donut hole reduction (73), kids though 26 on parents’ policies (67), state-based exchanges (60). Plus, respondents are MORE likely to vote for someone who supported HCR by 45/40.

    Obama approval = 47/48

    Obama vs. Palin trial heat for 2012: 51/35

  3. Before I declare Russ Feingold “The Comeback Kid” of this cycle. What is he doing in Wisconsin? What’s his campaign like?

    Again, y’all know I have my doubts about much of the public polling this cycle, but if even one’s own internals only show a tie (while everyone else sees a mid-to-high single digit deficit), Feingold’s in some deep doo-doo.

  4. If the two internal polls are complementary — i.e. if they can be averaged out, Mitchell can pull it out.

    At least according to Nate — per something I posted yesterday at http://www.swingstateproject.c…

    based on http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n…

    For those incumbents who were leading in the polls, but below 50% (like Mitchell)

    If you combine the three types of incumbents – House, Senate, gubernatorial – they had a record of 67-16, which equates to a winning percentage of 81 percent. Depending on how you define the term, they may not have been “safe” for re-election – but certainly, most were favorites.

    And there was only a slight overall break towards the challenger

    On average, the incumbent candidates led by 7.7 points in the polls with 30 days to go; they won their elections by an average of 7.3 points. That’s not a significant difference, needless to say.

    And the “rule” holds up least in the House:

    In fact, however, the House incumbents in our sample did very well: 32 out of 35 of them won their races, or 91 percent:

    Though Nate identifies a weakness in his numbers

    I’m referring to here is a “lo-fi” version that weights for sample size and the recency of the poll, but not for pollster quality.

  5. One interesting thing that I just noticed is that Ras has Angle up 2. PPP has Reid up 2. Depending on who you want to believe (both are likely within the MOE) this is a +4 R advantage with Ras. If you believe that this holds across the board and want to believe PPP then Strickland is down 1 to Kasich, Alexi is up 5 on Kirk and Murray is up 3 to Rossi. I don’t really know what to think as the polls are all tight and Nate has discussed a “House” effect of Ras. I also really hate cherry picking things advantageous. However, I do think that this does confirm that Strickland has made this a race and that Alexi/Murray will be very close calls but both have the benefit of favorable electoral bases. Strickland rising is going to help a ton for down ballot races like Zack Space, John Boccierri and Betty Sutton I would really have to think.  

  7. (Call me stupid if I missed something here, but I think he isn’t running for anything), Is Matt Blunt running for something this year, or is he prepping to run against McCaskill in ’12, to make Dad and Son senators from Missouri, I see that he’s advertising on Google to his website touting accomplishments etc., but no mention of any race. I got the Blunt ad on this site.

  8. When “leaners” are added in the poll results are Murray 55, Rossi 40.

    Elway polls from registered voter lists. He uses live polling and he calls cell as well as land lines. When only live polling is examined in this race, Murray has led consistently with a lead that began growing in early September and continues to grow.

    Party ID in the poll was 39% Democratic, 26% Republican and 35% Independent.

    26% of poll participants were from King County. That is higher than with other pollsters that released such data but slightly lower than the King County percentage of the electorate in 2002 and 2006 and substantially lower than the percentage in 2008.

  9. From the summary section of the analysis:

    Keep in mind that this survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent, which means that Deal could be leading by as little as 4 points or by as much as 8 points.

     

  14. Culver’s campaign released internal showing him down 47-39. Yes, that’s still bad, but it’s the closest he’s polled against Branstad all year, and the only poll I’m aware of that had Branstad below 50.

    If Culver could keep Branstad from winning in a blowout, Iowa Democrats would have a much better chance of holding the Iowa House.

    In IA-02, Miller-Meeks and Loebsack are debating tonight.

    In IA-01, Braley and Lange debated on Sunday.

    I posted a roundup of recent IA-03 news at Bleeding Heartland. Biden came to town today to headline a fundraiser for Boswell. Zaun has some ads running, but not nearly as many as Boswell and DCCC have aired. AFL-CIO doing more direct mail against Zaun. Still haven’t seen any Chamber of Commerce ads, but they supposedly are going to spend $183,000 against Boswell.

  16. You can sort of understand Roy Herron saying that in his situation, but are the voters of Saratoga Springs, New York, really gonna reward Murphy for shanking his party leader?

  25. Dan Coats and Brad Ellsworth debated last night up in Indianapolis, and the consensus seems to be that Coats did… poorly. Ellsworth tended to pound the same “Coats used to be a dirty scary lobbyist for EVIL, don't vote for him” drum that his campaign has been hitting for months, and Coats tended to attack Ellsworth's vote for healthcare reform and fumble about ineffectually for a better counter. So, good for Ellsworth, he did alright. The problem is that Ellsworth is still down in the polls by twenty points, and I don't think making Dan Coats look bad at a debate most people didn't even know was going on will make much difference. Some free media for Ellsworth can't hurt, though. They'll debate two more times this month.

    I posted a few weeks back about the emerging controversy in the Secretary of State race about Republican candidate Charlie White's battle with voting registration irregularity, with the assumption that White's problems, while amusing, probably wouldn't make a whole lot of difference in the race. As it turns out, the mess has yet to go away. The Indy Star has an excellent profile of the race as it stands, to which I'll append the news that two special prosecutors have been appointed in Hamilton County to investigate the whole thing. As for Democratic candidate Vop Osili, he's aggressively going after White in this new TV ad. Sounds like any other negative ad to me, frankly, but at least Osili's on the air. 

  27. http://www.dailyfreeman.com/ar…

    Hinchey’s my congressman, so I have lotsa interest in this one. Koch’s endorsement probably doesn’t move anything (though it’ll shine light on an otherwise-ignored race), but I think Hinchey can’t take anything for granted. This is a district with tons of progressive, grassroots, Green Party-type Democrats who’ve been majorly let-down by Obama’s performance, and they’re surely not the types who’ll get excited over Andrew Cuomo. Since Hinchey is a reliable liberal vote, this may not hurt him among the Dems who’ll vote, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Dem turn-out is rather limp here. This is also a district where the Republicans tend to be Paladino types, and while there aren’t many of them, they will GOTV. The electorate here will probably look something like 55D/30R/15I, and Hinchey probably wins 58-40 (‘cuz the Green candidate will probably get 1-2%).

  28. A new Michigan gubernatorial poll shows Democrat Virg Bernero finally beginning to close the gap between him and his opponent Republican businessman Rick Snyder:

    Baydoun Consulting/Foster McCollum White and Associates

    Rick Snyder: 50%

    Virg Bernero 37%

    Margin of Error: 2%

    Size: 2,282 voters

    What’s interesting about this is that it was taken before the candidates’ first and only debate in which Bernero will surely get a boost.  This could very well end up being competitive at the very end.

  32. U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann’s campaign has raised about $5.4 million since July, campaign spokesman Sergio Gor said.

    That’s more than any Minnesota congressional candidate has raised in an entire election — Bachmann took in 3.4 million in 2008. The $5 million boost brings Bachmann’s fundraising total this cycle to just about $10 million.

    http://www.startribune.com/pol…

  36. McCain cancels Anchorage trip to support Miller. http://bit.ly/9nkXBd “Scheduling conflict”. No time in schedule for whack job? #AKSen

    http://twitter.com/Mudflats/st…

    considering:

    1. a second poll out this morning shows Miller & Murkowski statistically tied. Pretty much indicating that amazingly she actually is a viable candidate. http://www.politico.com/news/s…

    2. she’s stated she’ll remain a Republican if she wins (and her voting record has been mostly GOP party line)

    3. another possible Miller scandal emerging: a 2008 ethics investigation http://www.alaskadispatch.com/…

    4. not to mention what has been coming out recently: late disclosures, terrible personal finances, the hypocrisy of he and his wife accepting various forms of government help all his life, but railing against it now http://www.rollingstone.com/po… etc etc etc

  37. Yet again, I found Whitman capable and competent, but unexciting as can be and not specific-enough. Brown offered more in the description department, and he’s more fun and casual to watch, but I still have my doubts Brown can bring a fresh perspective to California. This was a VERY pro-Brown audience (no surprise, given the venue), though Whitman earned her fair share of applause.

    Where things got testy was when Tom Brokaw brought up the “whore” controversy. Brokaw asked Brown how he could condone the use of a word, “which to women is as offensive as the n-word is to African-Americans.” Brown said he didn’t think Brokaw made a fair comparison, and Whitman practically jumped for joy, but the subsequent back-and-forth was so jumbled and all-over-the-place, I’m not sure she really benefited at all. If she gets desperate-enough, she’ll probably run Brown’s comment in a TV ad.  

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