Author: KTinTX

I’d like to announce some really great (and even surprising) poll results regarding the Texas Senate race here in Texas. The following poll was conducted a couple weeks ago by Lake Research, a highly regarded polling firm. Analysis of each major point will be below the section.

The survey was conducted among 500 registered voters in Texas who are likely to vote in the 2008 General Election.  The survey was conducted November 13-18, 2007. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

1. Opinion of John Cornyn

40% favorable

22% unfavorable

24% no opinion

14% never heard of him

Cornyn has been a statewide elected official since 1990- he’s been a Supreme Court Justice, Attorney General, and Senator. Given all that, only 62% of Texans know enough of Cornyn to have an opinion of him. That’s pretty shocking but verifies the rumors I heard earlier this year from other polls that said about a 1/3 of the state has no idea who he is. So even though Rick Noriega, like most Texas Democrats, is not well known by the general electorate yet, Sen. Cornyn does not enjoy as large of an name ID advantage as we might think.  

2. Job Approval of John Cornyn

36% favorable

41% unfavorable

23% no opinion

Cornyn continues to maintain a net negative job approval rating in stark contrast to Texas’ other Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison who fares over 20% points better. While 1/4th of voters don’t know enough to have an opinion, those who do clearly aren’t happy with what they see. Cornyn’s base of support is weak and there is a large pool of voters who seek change.

3. Re-Elect of John Cornyn

31% vote to re-elect

16% vote to replace

53% consider someone else

Texas voters are very open to replacing Cornyn as 69% want to replace or will consider replacing him. Having a 31% re-elect number is awful for Cornyn and is probably one of the most concerning results for him in this poll.

4. Approval of Bush in Texas

20% very favorable

22% favorable

16% unfavorable

37% very unfavorable

The President has lost the support of his home state with a 53% unfavorable rating to 42% favorable among Texans. Talk about a turnaround. Bush is the personification of the Texas Republican Party. If voters are rejecting him, including 37% who deeply disapprove, the Democratic nominee can count on a larger and more passionate partisan base vote in 2008. Cornyn’s continued attempts to tie himself to the President will only serve to drag him down.

5. Country Right/Wrong Track

62% Country on off on the wrong track

28% Country heading in right direction

Wow. Those numbers indicate that Texans think that the country has not only gone off in a wrong direction, but that’s it’s jumped clearly off the tracks.  Cornyn’s claims that we need to stay the course in Iraq, stay the course on tax cuts causing a ballooning deficit, and stay the course on a health care system that is broken are so out of touch the only course he’ll be staying on is a golf course after we retire him from office in 2008.  

A few hours ago Rick Noriega filed the paperwork necessary at the Texas Democratic Party headquarters here in Austin in his efforts to take on Sen. John Cornyn as a Democratic candidate for change here in Texas.

“It’s time that we quit having show horses and that we have work horses for the people of the state of Texas,” Noriega told an enthusiastic group at the Democratic Party headquarters.

Party chairman Boyd Richie said he wasn’t endorsing Noriega in the primary, but spoke beside him at his news conference and called it “an exciting day.”

In launching his campaign he spoke to some of the principal reasons for why he’s running.

Noriega, a lieutenant colonel in the Texas Army National Guard who spent 14 months in Afghanistan, said he supports firm timetables for withdrawing troops from Iraq. He said the war – which he insists on calling “an occupation” – has been mismanaged. He said he wants to tie funding for the Iraq war to a “logistically reasonable” timetable for withdrawal that includes the safe removal of troops and equipment.

“When we are at war, America wins wars. We are in an occupation of a country currently,” Noriega said. “The American people are tired of being misled and misinformed, and not one more drop of blood of one of my brethren is going to bring a political resolution in that region.”

I’ve included his prepared remarks for his announcement below the fold but I want to highlight two paragraphs from it that really put this campaign into perspective.

We enter this campaign under no illusions.  Few people today, if asked, recognize the name Rick Noriega.  But when you go beyond the superficial questions, you’ll find that millions share what our campaign stands for.  This campaign is not about making my name a household name.  It’s not about a Democrat versus a Republican.  It’s not about two people, Rick Noriega versus John Cornyn.  As we prepare to spend the next 11 months traveling this state, we plan to talk about who this campaign is really for.  This campaign is for the moms, dads, and grandparents who are caring for the children of troops who have been deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan over and over again.  It’s for our veterans who have served our country, but return home and carry on without adequate medical care, or health insurance for their children.  And it’s for the countless Texas families who work hard, yet find that health insurance, and college, and housing remain just out of reach.

For them, we can no longer call this an Exploratory Campaign.  This is a mission to reclaim our United States Senate seat.  This is a mission to restore true Texas values.  There will be those who sit back and judge from the sidelines.  But week-by-week, month-by-month, they will be outnumbered by the regular Texans who are ready to reclaim America’s global standing, Texas’ true values, and the United States Senate seat that belongs not to the politicians, but to the people.

ANNOUNCEMENT OF CANDIDACY FOR U.S. SENATE

Draft Remarks by Rep. Rick Noriega

December 3, 2007

Good morning. Today marks the last day of our Exploratory Campaign for the United States Senate and the first of my official candidacy to unseat Republican John Cornyn.   It’s time all Texans had representation in the United States Senate.  It’s time to put an end to the politics of division.  It’s now time to work together to get our country back on track.

We are wasting no time.  Today is the first day of the candidate filing period, and I have in hand the official forms, completed and signed, along with the candidate filing fee to offer myself for service as a Democratic candidate to be the next United States Senator to serve the Great State of Texas.

After a grueling legislative session, Melissa and I had long talks about the state of politics in Texas.  Our concern is one shared by Texans across our state, we’re frustrated with political leadership that is out-of-touch with the fundamental values of regular Texans. Texans want to invest in education, protect the health of children, and respect the privacy of law-abiding citizens.  

We have long been involved at the grassroots level.  But it had become increasingly clear that the politics of arrogance that puts special interests ahead of the public interest was coming from higher up the ladder.  It was time to challenge the politics of Karl Rove.  Their game plan has been to divide.  Our mission must be to unite.

So in mid-June, in the heat of the summer, we launched our Exploratory campaign for the United States Senate.   We traveled from Houston to Austin, Uvalde to Amarillo, Dallas to El Paso.   We listened to people’s hopes, dreams and concerns.  We shared ideas on how we can bring an end to the War in Iraq and address the issues our families face here at home.  And I challenged Texans from all walks of life to join me in answering the call.  We launched our campaign at the foot of the Heroes of the Alamo statue.  And everywhere we’ve traveled, Texans stepped up, crossed the line in the sand, and answered the call.  

When you take the time to break bread with Texans, you see a very different picture than what is portrayed in the media. The media looks at John Cornyn’s bank account, but voters look at their own – weighing the needs of saving for a college education for their children, while hopefully not letting go of their dreams for retirement.  The media believes it’s all about TV and negative attacks, but voters have become increasingly sophisticated.  They don’t believe everything they hear, and for good reason.  And when it comes to joining hands with others to get our state and country back on track, they’re willing and ready to get to work.

For Melissa and I, public service has always been a calling.  I heard and answered the call as a young man, seeing the news as hundreds of Americans were taken hostage in our nation’s Embassy in Iran.  I’ve continued to answer the call in the National Guard, serving a tour of duty in Afghanistan alongside some everyday American heroes.  I answered the call, as thousands of Texans did, doing my part to provide shelter and hope to families fleeing the devastation of Hurricane Katrina.   Texans understand the difference between self-service and public service.  Unfortunately, it’s a lesson lost on the junior Senator from Texas.  Today, we have the opportunity to correct course, and that’s why I’m answering this next call to service to help get our country back on track.

We enter this campaign under no illusions.  Few people today, if asked, recognize the name Rick Noriega.  But when you go beyond the superficial questions, you’ll find that millions share what our campaign stands for.  This campaign is not about making my name a household name.  It’s not about a Democrat versus a Republican.  It’s not about two people, Rick Noriega versus John Cornyn.  As we prepare to spend the next 11 months traveling this state, we plan to talk about who this campaign is really for.  This campaign is for the moms, dads, and grandparents who are caring for the children of troops who have been deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan over and over again.  It’s for our veterans who have served our country, but return home and carry on without adequate medical care, or health insurance for their children.  And it’s for the countless Texas families who work hard, yet find that health insurance, and college, and housing remain just out of reach.

For them, we can no longer call this an Exploratory Campaign.  This is a mission to reclaim our United States Senate seat.  This is a mission to restore true Texas values.  There will be those who sit back and judge from the sidelines.  But week-by-week, month-by-month, they will be outnumbered by the regular Texans who are ready to reclaim America’s global standing, Texas’ true values, and the United States Senate seat that belongs not to the politicians, but to the people.

From the ActBlue Blog…

Fundraising pages are the most important component of ActBlue: the vast majority of visitors to the site arrive directly on a fundraising page because a friend, an organization, or a campaign has channeled them there.  We pride ourselves on these pages’ simplicity: donors can show up, immediately understand what’s going on, and contribute with no distracting bells and whistles. 

But we harbor a dirty secret (or, not-so-secret if you’ve been with us a while).

Over the past three years, $22 million raised, and 200,000+ donors, these pages haven’t actually changed all that much.  For a bit of nostalgia, check out the DailyKos dozen page as it looked back at the end of 2004 (compare to the same page with today’s look).  Yeah, the site framework has changed a little, but the makeup of the fundraising pages is remarkably similar.

Next week, all that is about to change.

Motivated by a strong sense that we could do better (and by a desire to burn down HTML code approaching its second anniversary), a few weeks ago we got to work putting together a new design with the help of the excellent Steve Ofner of Liberal Art.  The result is the new design that that you see at right.  (Click the image for a full-size mockup.)

In putting the new design together we had several aims:

• A sharper, more dynamic look & feel
• A simpler user experience
• A clearer presentation of the dollar and donor numbers
• A more attention-grabbing "contribute" button at the top

The result is an improved page design that looks good with long candidate blurbs, short candidate blurbs, no candidate blurbs, or all of the above.

We’ll be rolling out this design next week, and will continue to refine it in the coming months — so please let us know what you think!

Cross-posted from Burnt Orange Report

So the first quarter of fundraising is over and while the focus was mostly on the presidential candidates, let’s not forget about our incumbent members of Congress. In order to do that, I’ve compiled data for all 32 members in Texas and sorted them in four categories: 1Q Raised, 1Q Spent, Cash on Hand, and their Burn rate (calculated as spent/raised so the higher the number the more spent).

Click on the different tabs below to see the totals. Democrats in bold but all are marked by party. Al Green has not yet filed (not uncommon). If it’s not displaying below, click here.

Glad to see Chet (D), Lampson (D), and Ciro (D) high on that list, though I’m sure Lampson is still going to raise more knowing that he will have the toughest re-election fight in Texas. Six of the seven worst fundraisers were Republicans.

But what is up with Ron Paul (R) and Ralph Hall (R)? I know Paul is running for President (as a Republican, not Libertarian) but Hall pulled in a meager $2000. Hall is old (84) but hasn’t announced any plans to retire. Could this be a sign? He also used to be a Democrat until he switched parties after the DeLay redistricting forced him into a more Republican district. Might be be convinced to switch back? Under House rules he’d retain his seniority and seeing as he’s been in congress since 1981, that’s a lot of rank he could pull.

In terms of Cash on Hand, Austin’s Lloyd Doggett (D) is #1 with $1.95 million. But after that it’s mostly Republican, though some notably lower than 2 years ago like Lamar Smith (R) and Pete Sessions (R). That’s one nice side effect of the campaigns of John Courage and Will Pryor.

As to the burn rate- anything over 1 indicates more money being spent than raised. Texas Democrats did very well in this category holding 10 of the 14 best spots, holding on to their cash and building up their warchests.  Paul (R) is the worst burner but his attention is elsewhere so no surprise. Hall (R) takes the number 2 spot- further hints at potential retirement?

Anything else of note? Add your thoughts and analysis in the comments.

(As long as they’ve got special run-off elections going on in Texas, I think the SSP is gonna be Karl’s home-away-from-home. – promoted by DavidNYC)

TrueBlueAction.com announces ciro.onlinephonebanking.com is up and running!

OnlinePhoneBanking the most efficient and effective way for folks anywhere in the state (or country) to help Democrat Ciro Rodriguez defeat Republican Henry Bonilla. The netroots worked hard for Ciro last time, and with this new tool, we can turn netroots passion into grassroots action!

Learn more about TX-23: Democrat Ciro Rodriguez v Republican Henry Bonilla

Make simple calls to voters in any precinct in TX-23 to identify Democrats for GOTV, from the comfort of your home, right now, using OnlinePhoneBanking’s tools. Choose any precinct, and if you want, choose any demographic in that precinct – women, men, seniors, youth, anyone, and more. TrueBlueAction provides tools, scripts and data, you provide the volunteer effort and the data that helps Democrats!

Click here to make calls at Ciro.OnlinePhoneBanking.com

More info at LatinosForTexas.com, and TrueBlueAction.com

The election date has been set for Tuesday December 12th for the District 23 Congressional Runoff between Democrat Ciro Rodriguez and Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla. Early Voting is set to run for just one week from December 4-8. It is the earliest day possible that it could have been called with the intent of giving the advantage to Henry Bonilla.

That’s 3 weeks folks- 2 weeks until people start voting. As soon as ciro.onlinephonebanking.com is up and running, that will be the best way you can help us win in this tight electoral frame. Thousands of people making GOTV calls through this innovative new Texas tool can make a huge impact, especially if you cannot donate or come to the district. Otherwise, you can still donate to Ciro online or sign up to volunteer online.

(The game is afoot. Can we snatch another Texas seat in time for Christmas? Ciro would have faced a very difficult task mobilizing voters with his limited campaign and financial infrastructure, so the DCCC entering the fray is a very welcome development here. Stay tuned. – promoted by James L.)

The DCCC is on the ground in TX-23. They have made amazing progress in getting Democrat Ciro Rodriguez to let them bring the game on for this short election period seeing as he’s low on cash and institutional support. In other terms, Ciro has actually been on the phone doing call time which in itself is short of a miracle, just to put it in perspective.

Meghan Gaffney as some will remember from Paul Hackett’s race in OH-02 is there now as well as Adrian Saenz, the DCCC’s National Field Director (who if I’m not mistaken is from San Antonio as it is).

There is a poll in the field right now to determine where things stand on that front.

The election date cannot be set earlier than this Friday from what we’ve been told, though there is an expectation that Gov. Perry will do so then. There is an open state house seat in Texas which also has to have an election date set – a dead Republican incumbent beat her Democratic opponent on Nov 7th creating a vacancy which forces an open special election in HD-29 near Houston. That race is discussed in this post.

Good news out of TX-23. As of today, all of Ciro Rodriguez’s former Democratic challengers in the open primary for TX-23 have now endorsed his campaign. Third place finisher Lukin Gilliland has offered up his northside campaign headquarters and staff.

“Henry Bonilla simply hasn’t done his job to provide fresh ideas on how to protect our troops and bring an honorable peace to the war in Iraq. This runoff represents the people’s chance to make changes in our Iraq policy and bring our troops home. Bonilla continues claiming to support our troops and yet he continues to send them into harm’s way,” said Albert Uresti.

“The Republican leadership has failed, as signaled by the November elections. Uniting the Democrats behind one democrat in this Congressional election is important so that we may continue the change of direction in our country,” said Uresti.

The Urestis’ endorsement is an important lynchpin in Rodriguez’s plan to unite Democrats to defeat Republican Congressman Henry Bonilla. Senator Carlos Uresti represents a district that mirrors the boundaries of the 23rd Congressional District and Albert Uresti garnered the second most votes among Democrats in the special election contest that ended November 7, 2006.

Both brothers declare that Bonilla has not represented the concerns of the people of the 23rd Congressional District and believe Rodriguez provides an opportunity toward a new direction that puts people above the powerful special interests that have created a failed Republican government in Washington.

(I agree with Karl’s correspondent – the way to win here is to let the DCCC do it’s thing. I never like to knock a fellow Dem, but it’s clear that Ciro ran a less-than-great campaign in his primary against Cuellar. So the outside help is welcome. – promoted by DavidNYC)

Another update on this race is here.

Below is an update from a friend in the know down in San Antonio.

Here’s the lowdown as of sometime today… DCCC people were flying into town today to tell Ciro’s what’s going down.  If he liked it and was willing to play by the rules, fine.  If not, they’re gonna pack it up.  I’ll probably have more information on this meeting sometime later on this week.

From what I hear, the D-trip might just run this entire campaign as an independent expenditure.  Let Ciro try and raise some money so he can do his own thing, but run mail, field (the real field program) and any other media stuff through the d-trip. The DCCC is bringing in a top notch field person to run their show and that’ll be that.  If there is one way to win this district with Ciro at the helm, this is basically the way to do it.

Additionally, our statewide Democratic candidates are coming together to help Ciro out either way, as our state party does little. From David Van Os, former Attorney General candidate (below the fold):

All the recent statewide candidates are coming together to join Barbara Radnofsky as co-hosts of a luncheon fundraiser for Ciro Rodriguez in Houston on Monday (November 20, details to follow). We are all standing together to demonstrate our determination that the Democratic community must come together and go all out for this opportunity to get rid of Henry Bonilla and replace him with a true representative of the people, Ciro Rodriguez.

Further, tonight at the Bexar County Democratic Executive Committee meeting, John Courage publicly donated $2,000 to Ciro’s campaign.

The Texas Democratic Party, to no surprise, is dragging its feet. But we statewide candidates are plenty used to that because we all experienced the TDP’s inertia over the past year. So we are not waiting around for the TDP and I encourage all of you to join us and make Ciro’s campaign your #1 political priority for the next month. Please right now set aside the runoff election day as a day that you are going to be in the 23rd congressional district knocking on doors all day getting the Democratic vote out.

Go to Ciro’s website and contact the campaign to find out the other different ways you can help. Also please call and write the State Party Chair, Boyd Richie, and insist that the large paid staff in the party office all be sent out to the field in the 23rd to help win this election behind our candidate, Ciro Rodriguez.

In my recent race for Texas Attorney General the voters honored me by giving me majorities in some of the rural west Texas counties that are in the new district with which Ciro is not familiar. I am fortunate to enjoy some good support networks in those counties and I have offered to travel to the area with Ciro and introduce him to my supporters and ask them to exert maximum effort to get out the votes for his candidacy. Ciro’s campaign manager accepted my offer on the spot at the Bexar County CEC meeting tonight. I look forward to doing whatever I can to help pull this one out. I believe that other recent statewide candidates are going to do so also. Several of us will be with Ciro Monday at the Houston fundraiser and will be discussing plans with him and his campaign manager for campaigning for him.

The parts of southwest and west Texas that are in the reconfigured 23rd are Democratic country. Henry Bonilla has been lying his way into people’s votes for much too long. Ya basta!

(From the diaries. If Ciro can’t do it this year, this seat is clearly a ripe pick-up opporunity in 2008. – promoted by James L.)

Of the 10 US House seats still not called, 2 of them are because they are actual run-off elections. Of the two, one is between 2 Democrats. The other, here in Texas, is between former Netroots candidate Ciro Rodriguez and Rep. Henry Bonilla, who is soon to lose his seat because of court ordered redistricting changes.

On November 7th, the Republican vote total was 48%. The combined Democratic total was 49% though only 20% was Ciro’s. The seat is ready to be taken but some ask why there has been a wait.

A couple things. Right now I can tell you that there have been talks between the DCCC and folks in San Antonio. Someone has been asked to draw up a mail/TV/field budget for a one month long run-off campaign.  They have asked around in the district to see if there is someone to run a field program, one possibility being a friend of mine who just spent the last year helping to elect a Democratic state Senator and then hold his open state House seat last Tuesday.

In a couple days, I have been made aware that new online tools will become available for Democrats across Texas (and beyond) to call Democrats in TX-23 in a system very much like MoveOn’s call for change. They were built by former state Rep. Glen Maxey who nearly took over the chairmanship of the Texas Democratic Party this June and just got done successfully running the Austin area coordinated campaign that picked up 1 state house seat, 1 Justice of the Peace, and 1 3rd Court of Appeals seat.  These are www.TrueBlueAction.com and www.OnlinePhoneBanking.com.

Netroots candidate John Courage, who just wrapped up his campaign this afternoon is in the process of transferring his San Antonio volunteers and staff to help out Ciro in any way they can. Former TX-23 candidate Lukin Gilliland has apparently offered up his campaign staff and team (whom I’m familiar with and are good folks) to help out Ciro as well.

Of course, the district won’t be won without a lot of money and volunteer investment. As of now, that major commitment hasn’t been declared yet. But I wanted to let folks know, that things are in the works.