Public Policy Polling (3/27-29, Alabama voters, no trend lines):
Artur Davis (D): 32
Bradley Byrne (R): 48Ron Sparks (D): 30
Bradley Byrne (R): 43Artur Davis (D): 33
Tim James (R): 42Ron Sparks (D): 33
Tim James (R): 38Artur Davis (D): 37
Roy Moore (R): 43Ron Sparks (D): 37
Roy Moore (R): 42
(MoE: ±2.5%)
Also included in the poll was state Treasurer Kay Ivey, who announced today that she’ll be switching races to the less-crowded Lt. Governor’s race. Ivey leads Davis by 44-33 and Sparks by 39-33.
In every permutation of this race tested by PPP, a greater share of Democrats are undecided compared to Republicans — especially in the match-ups against Byrne, where twice as many Democrats are undecided. Even if most of those voters come home, Democrats will need some lucky breaks in order to win here… breaks such as a Roy Moore primary win, for instance.
According to the 2008 exit polls Obama won Democrats 85%-14%, not too much lower than the 89%-10% win nationally. So anyone worried that most of the undecided Democrats in the poll are just Dixiecrats should be a little relieved.
The Black Democrat does worse in every case. Davis is an idiot. Sparks may make a race of it.
If Roy Moore is the GOP nominee, the Democrat has a chance. If anyone else is the GOP nominee, the Democrat has no chance.
While it’s not looking likely that Moore will win his primary, he does have a legitimate shot. So the question is: Blue Dog positions and superior campaign skills versus statewide name recognition and support for the base. Which one gives us the better shot against Moore? And should we pick Sparks either way on the grounds that it’s unlikely Moore will be the GOP nominee, so we shouldn’t worry about who’s more electable?
than seeing Davis handed his sorry ass with a 20 pt loss in Nov! Frankly the guy is a douche and the fact that he’d put his fairy tale personal political ambition over the over 450K black Alabamans who have zero economic clout in a state where the white-dominated GOP establishment woudln’t give a flying fuck about their socio-economic well being, makes him the worst shyster to have come out of there. I mean, he is literally the only Federal official able to deliver for black Alabama and the fact that in this hard recession he throws them the middle finger on life and death matters is disgusting! He can go to hell….
So there are 3 competitive congressional races in Alabama in 2010, too. Of those, it would be better if Sparks were the nominee for the person in AL-05 (Sparks’ base is here) and Bobby Bright. For Segall in AL-03, it would better if Davis were the nominee.
Why? Bright and AL-05 (which are both roughly 17% black) need white voters voting for Team Blue, while AL-03 needs big turnout by black voters (about 30% black nowadays). Now, despite Davis’ seeming unpopularity with black voters, they will probably turn out a lot better if he’s at the top of the ticket than if it’s Sparks. But Sparks will almost certainly be able to get more white crossover votes (and frankly, he’d do just as well or better at holding the base, including black voters).
I honestly think Davis could take Bright and the AL-05 nominee down with him as the racist nutjobs turn out in force to stop the possibility of a black governor. Why oh why didn’t Davis run for AG?
those numbers blow! At the beginning of this cycle I had this one at a tossup. I suppose the national climate and Alabama’s conservative lean will be extremely hard to overcome. I am still torn about who to support in the primary. I really don’t like Davis or Sparks. Davis was a real jerk (nice word for it!) on HCR, and Sparks was a real jerk (again too nice!) on the Griffith Congressional seat. I could see many progressives not showing up for Davis, but I could see many more AA not showing up for Sparks. I think it would be really historic to see an AA Governor, yet I would like it to be someone besides Artur Davis.
Oh this is precious. I was looking up Bradley Byrne, and found this gem. Bradley, buddy, I don’t think “literally” means what you think it means. Well, actually, I believe you do know what it means, but that you’re cynically backpedaling a perfectly reasonable response to a loaded question for political gain.
http://politicalwire.com/archi…
There could be some politically problematic positions in the Good Book … unless you’re really into stoning bankers and adulterers and stuff … which, come to think of it, might play well in Alabama this year. Have at it, buddy.
against Moore and James, but not against Byrne. And Sparks generally polls somewhat better then Davis (may be – because Davis is Black, may be – by other reasons. You need details (poll results by race and counties) for precise answer). Byrne, despite his “Bible ramark”, seems to me as more “normal conservative” then Moore and James (am i correct?). If so – nothing especially surprising: Alabama is a conservative state, so conservative (but not overt extremist) will be favored here in conceivable future.