Quinnipiac (3/23-29, registered voters, 2/16-21 in parens):
Lee Fisher (D): 41 (37)
Rob Portman (R): 37 (40)
Undecided: 21 (21)Jennifer Brunner (D): 38 (35)
Rob Portman (R): 37 (40)
Undecided: 23 (23)
(MoE: ±2.5%)
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 43 (44)
John Kasich (R): 38 (39)
Undecided: 15 (15)
(MoE: ±2.5%)
Compared to many of the other offerings we’ve seen out of Ohio lately, this poll contains some pretty welcome news. Still, it’s worth keeping in mind that Quinnipiac has had one of the friendlier records for Democrats in the gubernatorial race, probably due to the fact that Quinnipiac does not screen for likely voters.
Still, there’s good news to be found here for sure: Obama’s job approval has improved from 44-52 in February to 47-48 today, and the favorability of healthcare reform has shot up to 43-50 from 36-55. Those are the kinds of numbers that Democrats will need to see stabilized in order to have a shot in the Senate race.
Even if Quinnipiac’s poll is more friendly to the Democrats than reality, there is still a very good likelihood that Fisher (I’m presuming that he’ll be the nominee) can paint Portman as the free-trader that he really is.
This cycle may yet be decent for the Democrats.
If the economy, and in particular the unemployment situation improves at all prior to November, I really don’t see how Strickland loses. Kasich’s main point of emphasis is going to be on the economy and spending. If things get better, he’s going to have to make it a referendum on health care (and posssibly on social issues), which is a loser.
Again, I think Strickland has been a good governor. People are just blaming him for their personal economic troubles, and that’s a shame. In particular, he’s done great things for the state’s educational systems. At least our colleges and universities are on par with other states now as their costs skyrocket while ours stay relatively frozen.