• CA-Sen (PDF): The Field Poll also has approvals and re-elects for Dianne Feinstein. The former stands at 48-33 (more or less in line with her historical averages), while the latter comes in at 46-42 (somewhat below her scores at similar points prior to her previous re-election campaigns). One aside: Is it normal for the Field Poll to go into the field for a two-week period? The dates on this survey are Feb. 28-March 14.
• FL-Sen: God, Mike Haridopolos really is such a joke. He’s now had to amend his financial disclosure forms a third time, because he somehow keeps forgetting to account for all the sources of his income. You have to be pretty rich and disconnected not to remember where you’re getting all your money from. So in other words, Haridopolos is a perfect GOP exemplar. (He claims he didn’t disclose the property in question because his mortgage payments exceed the rent he’s taking in… but ya know, he’s still getting checks in each month!)
• NM-Sen: GOP Lt. Gov. John Sanchez tells Le Fixe that he is “very close” to getting into the Republican Senate primary and will decide “very soon.”
• OH-Sen: Quinnipiac has some numbers out on Sherrod Brown. He has a 43-27 job approval (in January, it was 45-25); a 45-29 lead over Generic R (Jan: 45-33); and almost identical 45-30 re-elects (unchanged). President Obama gets 41-34 over Generic R, but just 45-46 re-elects.
Meanwhile, Dave Catanese caught up with Ken Blackwell, who says he’s intrigued by PPP’s recent smorgasbord poll of the Ohio GOP primary showing him “leading the way” with all of 21% and now plans to take a “serious look” at the race. Hey, thanks a lot, Tom Jensen! No, I really mean it! Ken Blackwell would be entertaining, and he’s also not exactly a very strong candidate. PPP should goad more also-rans into re-thinking their futures.
• VA-Sen, VA-03: Dem Rep. Bobby Scott visited Larry Sabato’s class the other day and said he’s still thinking about running for Senate and will decide by July. Scott also called Obama’s actions in Libya “unconstitutional”… hrm. Anyhow, Blue Virginia also notes that Scott could potentially take advantage of an obscure state law which would allow him to run in two primaries at once, meaning he could, say, run against Tim Kaine in the Senate race but if he gets pounded, could hold on to his House seat.
• MT-Gov: I wonder what the connection is here: very temporary former Florida Sen. George LeMieux is holding a fundraiser for businessman Neil Livingstone in DC next month. Livingstone is one of several Republicans seeking to replace outgoing Gov. Brian Schweitzer next year. I’m really curious to know why LeMieux is taking an interest in this race.
• NH-Gov: I don’t know if Papa Sununu is merely running off his mouth, or if he actually knows something. But he seems to suggest that Dem Gov. John Lynch, already serving a highly unusual fourth two-year term, might seek a fifth next year. He also tosses out a few names for potential Republican challengers: 2010 nominee John Stephen, 2010 Senate primary loser Ovide Lamontagne, state Sen. (and ex-Rep.) Jeb Bradley, and ex-State Sen. Bruce Keogh.
• WA-Gov: Seattle Magazine has a lengthy profile of King County Executive Dow Constantine, whose name you occasionally hear mentioned in the gubernatorial context despite most people’s assumptions that Rep. Jay Inslee has first right of refusal on the Dem nomination. The article mentions unnamed insiders who think that Constantine may a better choice than Inslee (whose district’s center of gravity is in Snohomish County) for beating AG and former King County Councilor Rob McKenna. McKenna-unlike any other possible Republican candidate-is capable of winning over suburban moderates in east King County, the only possible road for a Republican to win statewide. (The 49-year-old Constantine’s gubernatorial timeline might be more appropriately 2020… though he has three times as many constituents as Inslee, so he may have the leverage to cut to the front of the line.) Speaking of McKenna, he’s on Step 2 of his Quasi-Moderate Reboot following his attempted equivocation on HCR repeal: now he’s also distancing himself from the new GOP boogeyman Scott Walker, saying he’d never mess with collective bargaining rights.
• CA-36: It’s looking like Gov. Jerry Brown’s hoped-for statewide special election on ballot proposals to extend certain tax measures may not happen in June after all, which means the race in the 36th could stand all alone-and face even lower turnout than might otherwise have been expected.
• FL-26: We mentioned (thanks to Greg Giroux) Karen Diebel’s unusual FEC filing the other day-she says she plans to run in the non-existent “FL-26.” Now, says Dave Catanese, NRCC chair Pete Sessions was seen squiring Diebel around DC, taking her to a meeting of House Republicans, and raising some eyebrows in the process, seeing as she lost to now-Rep. Sandy Adams in the FL-24 GOP primary last year. Diebel must be hoping that a new Orlando-based district carves out some room for her.
• MN-06: If god really loved us, Michele Bachmann would run for pretzeldent. And now she’s saying it just might happen!
• Ohio Init.: Here’s what’s going to happen: the Republicans who are busy destroying themselves in Ohio will pass SB5, a bill designed to strip away collective bargaining rights from union members. Then unions and their supporters will get a referendum on SB5 placed on the ballot. If polls and history (see 1958) are any guide, SB5 will get overturned. Republicans, of course, don’t want that to happen, and at least some of them think they stand a better chance if the measure goes up for a vote this November, rather than next November. For that to happen, Gov. John Kasich needs to sign SB5 into law by April 6th. But the Republican Speaker of the House isn’t so sure 2011 will be better for the GOP than 2012, and I’m not sure I disagree with him.
• Suffolk Co. Exec.: This sure is an unusual way to end a criminal investigation-and a political career. Steve Levy said he won’t seek re-election to his current post… and he’s turning over his $4 million warchest to the Suffolk Co. DA’s office, which had been probing him for campaign finance violations. Of course, Levy’s political suicide really began in earnest last year, when the one-time Democrat tried to change parties to run for the GOP nomination for governor… only to get dinged at the Republican convention. Quite the capper to an ignominious career best known for immigrant-bashing.
• Wisconsin Recall: Democrats now say they have “over fifty percent of the number of petitions they need to recall eight Republican state senators, although they are not over the fifty percent threshold in every district.”
Meanwhile, the Randy Hopper mistress story keeps getting better. It now looks as though his paramour managed to avoid the formal recruitment process that normal people went through in order to land state jobs during the transition period after Gov. Scott Walker was elected. Despite that, she scored a gig, and a pay raise.
• WI Sup. Ct.: The Capital Times has a detailed profile of the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, noting in particular the increased enthusiasm for getting rid of David Prosser in light of Scott Walker’s evildoing. Prosser, by the way, continues to blame his fellow women justices for the lack of civility on the court, now claiming that they’ve “ganged up” against him. Remember this, is the guy who screamed at the Chief Justice that she was a “bitch” and he’d “destroy” her.
• Models: Nate Silver critiques Harry Enten’s house forecasting model that we mentioned here the other day, saying that Enten has too many variables and not enough data sets. Enten responds here.
• WATN?: We mentioned the Idaho GOP’s move to a close primary system a little while back, but I’m linking this article because I was unaware that 2008 ID-01 Dem nominee Larry Grant is now the chair of the Idaho Democratic Party. Grant lost to the infamous Bill Sali in 2006 by a relatively tight 50-45 margin.
Redistricting Roundup:
• Arkansas: One place where, seemingly against all odds, Dems control the redistricting trifecta is Arkansas. The only Democrat left in the House delegation is Blue Dog d-bag Mike Ross, and he’d apparently worked out a map with his colleagues in the legislature that would protect his 4th CD seat, but also continue to make the 1st and 2nd CDs (now held by Republicans) potentially competitive. But according to Blue Arkansas, at the last minute, Ross changed his mind and insisted on a plan which would shore up his own district at the expense of the other two. Blue AR says this was particularly galling, because, they say, Ross has been telegraphing his plans to run for governor in 2014. However, Ross didn’t get his way: a little tinkering was done, but not enough to materially change the original plan. Anyhow, I believe that the map in question can be viewed here.
• Louisiana: I don’t think there’s much if anything new here, but Politico seems increasingly convinced that Rep. Jeff Landry is on the verge of getting screwed. This of course would not be a surprise, as the teabagging freshman is definitely the low man on the totem pole.
Yeah, they always have a long sample. In terms of Blackwell, there is a priceless quote where he inferred PPP didn’t poll him against Brown because they were scared what they might find!
that pretends to have any sort of idea of who will win the house. I have seen too many years where the national mood would foreshadow a big win for one party but the results went the other way. Years like 1972, 1980, 1984 and 2000 come to mind.
There are so many variables like redistricting, incumbency, ticket splitting and money that make forecasting house results seem alot like picking lottery numbers.
I might add in the 1970s and 1980s the political composition of house districts, IMO, favored the democrats. Since 1990 the composition of house districts, IMO, have favored the GOP. That based on the idea that if 50% of the voters voted R and 50% voted D the GOP would win more then 218 house seats. The D seats tend to have actual voters but also tend to be more intense in their party support.
I mean, just encourage Steve Poizner to run as a sacrificial lamb. It looks like Feinstein’s ceiling is probably around 60%.
This isn’t about any race in particular, but after reading the blog link below, I’v enough with this seemingly lazy reporting about how certain candidates can self finance presidential campaigns. Unless they are talking about primaries, which even then is a stretch, it’s pretty unrealistic to expect any of these guys to finance a campaign. For one thing, Jon Huntsman isn’t all that wealthy. I mean, he’s loaded, sure, but if his net worth is supposed to be at most $25 million, that’s not going to help him at all. Hell, even if were to cash in his likely inheritance–something he would/could probably never do, since his dad intends to die broke–I don’t think he could do it. Even the richest members of congress, like Mark Warner and Herb Kohl, are limited. If they tried to cash in their worth and drop $100 to $200 million on a presidential campaign, something tells me their wives would have a thing or two to say about it. In some senses, it might helpful, but unless you are talking about Meg Whitman-style money, it’s only going to go so far. Besides, if you can’t suck up to corporations or raise money off of small donors over the Internet, you just aren’t trying. I just wish more reporters would realize this.
There, rant over.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/…
The State Senate should just ignore him. It was the same during the HCR debate. He held it hostage in committee until an amendment he authored got approved and passed. Then, a few months later, he was suddenly adamantly against the whole thing.
Creative, having Ross’ district shoot a finger into Fayetteville (which, despite being in the heart of ultra-GOP NW Arkansas, is surprisingly a Democratic city). Presumably, this strengthens Ross and lets him drop some other Dem-leaning areas into the other two districts. Can anyone more familiar with Arkansas demographics draw any further conclusions from that map? Does it really screw over Griffin or Crawford? Or does it just weaken them both somewhat?
http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.co…
West beats Frankel(mayor of West Palm Beach) 53-38 under the current district lines. His favorables are 50-36, hers are 28-36.
Doesn’t mean too much with how much the district could change in redistricting of course.
out his current term, he’d already be the 2nd longest serving New Hampshire governor ever. Though he’d need 6 to pass John Taylor Gilman’s total tenure.