Wealthy Democratic Leaning Districts

After some recent discussions on here regarding wealthier suburban districts that have been held by Republicans since 1994, but lean Democratic, I have compiled a list of such districts:

These districts were selected for meeting the following criteria:

1)  Above average median income (42,000 per individual or higher)

2)  A PVI score of D even to D+7

3)  Held by a Republican for at least one term since 1994

In no way I claim any of these seats are in play, but I am just providing a list of seats that could fall if the anti-Democratic wave is concentrated in suburban districts.  Many of them are considered in play though.  Others probably are not in play unless the Democratic incumbent runs a terrible campaign and/or the Republican runs a really competent campaign.

Colorado-7

Ed Perlmutter – D+4

Connecticut-2

Joe Courtney – D+6

Connecticut-4

Jim Himes – D+5

Connecticut-5

Chris Murphy – D+2

Florida-22

Ron Klein – D+1

Iowa-3

Leonard Boswell – D+1

Maryland-2

Dutch Ruppersberger – D+7

Massachusetts-6

John Tierney – D+7

Michigan-9

Gary Peters – D+2

New Jersey-12

Rush Holt – D+5

New York-1

Tim Bishop – D-EVEN

New York-2

Steve Israel – D+4

New York-4

Carolyn McCarthy – D+6

New York-25

Dan Maffei – D+3

Ohio-15

Mary Jo Kilroy – D+1

Oregon-5

Kurt Schrader – D+1

Pennsylvania-7

Joe Sestak – D+3 (Open)

Pennsylvania-8

Patrick Murphy – D+2

Pennsylvania-13

Allyson Schwartz – D+7

Virginia-11

Gerry Connolly – D+2

Washington-2

Rick Larsen –  D+3

Washington-9

Adam Smith – D+5

Ryan_in_DelCo’s 2010 Gubernatorial Predictions – August 31, 2010

The third part of my analysis of this election cycle will focus on the large number of gubernatorial races occurring this November.

Here are some basic observations before breaking down the races:

1)  There seems to be a natural cycle in terms of gubernatorial races where the parties alternate control in many states.  This natural cycle favored the Democrats during the 2000s, but hammered them during the 1990s.  Right now, it appears even without the electoral adversity they are facing nationally, Democrats would likely be suffering from the natural shift that seems to occur from party to party every 8 to 12 years in many states.  This natural cycle does benefit the Democrats in a few places like Florida and Georgia.

2)  Very few sitting governors are popular at the moment.  Many of them are term-limited, but there seems to be a strong effect they are having on some races forcing the candidates carrying their party’s banner to suffer too.

3)  The breakdown after the election will be as follows:  31 Republican, 18 Democratic, 1 Independent.  

4)  Of the tossups, the Democrats will win Georgia and Maine.  The Republicans will find a way to win in the rest including California by spending $300 million if necessary.  Most of the tossups with the exception of California and Ohio have been horribly underpolled to say the least.

No Race Democratic (7)

Delaware

Kentucky

Missouri

Montana

North Carolina

Washington

West Virginia

Safe Democratic (3)

Arkansas

New Hampshire

New York

Likely Democratic (2)

Colorado

Connecticut

Lean Democratic (4)

Florida

Hawaii

Massachusetts

Minnesota

Tossup (7)

California

Georgia

Maine

Maryland

New Mexico

Oregon

Lean Republican (5)

Illinois

Michigan

Ohio

Texas

Vermont

Wisconsin

Likely Republican (6)

Arizona

Iowa

Oklahoma

Nevada

Pennsylvania

South Carolina

Safe Republican (9)

Alaska

Alabama

Idaho

Kansas

Nebraska

South Dakota

Tennessee

Utah

Wyoming

No Race Republican (6)

Indiana

Louisiana

Mississippi

New Jersey

North Dakota

Virginia

Lean Independent (1)

Rhode Island

Edit:  I have moved Ohio from Tossup to Lean Republican in light of recent polling.

Ryan_in_DelCo’s 2010 US Senate Predictions – August 30, 2010

After completing my US House analysis a few days ago, I figured it was time to post my US Senate analysis.  

Some basic background:

1)  On paper, the Republicans should be able to take the Senate, but they really only have a 20% chance of doing so due to some candidate issues, specifically in Nevada and Kentucky.  

2)  Right now, I estimate that the Republicans will gain 6 seats (winning 25 out of the 37) seats at play.  This involves me breaking all the tossups for the Republicans except Kentucky and Wisconsin.

3)  Democratic majority will remain intact with a 53 to 47 partisan breakdown in the Senate.

Safe Democratic (7)

Hawaii

Maryland

New York

New York

Oregon

Vermont

West Virginia

Likely Democratic (1)

Connecticut

Leans Democratic (3)

California

Nevada

Washington

Tossup (6)

Colorado

Florida

Illinois

Kentucky

Ohio

Wisconsin

Leans Republican (3)

Missouri

New Hampshire

Pennsylvania

Likely Republican (6)

Alaska

Arkansas

Delaware

Indiana

Louisiana

North Carolina

Safe Republican (11)

Alabama

Arizona

Georgia

Idaho

Iowa

Kansas

North Dakota

Oklahoma

South Carolina

South Dakota

Utah

Ryan_in_DelCo’s 2010 US House Predictions – August 29, 2010

A few posters asked me for the basis of my prediction that the Republicans would probably gain between 40 and 60 seats.  While I lean closer to a number in the low 40s, I break down every seat that I could consider possibly at play in this environment based on the following factors:

1) Open Seat or Not

2) Seat that has been held by a Republican since 2003, but flipped to the Democrats since 2003

3) Seats that are represented by a Democrat, but voted for Bush and/or McCain

Here is how I break down the race per seat.  I have this in a chart, but have had problems uploading it to the site.  To view it in chart form click here.

Safe Democratic:  

AR-4

CA-47

CT-02

IA-1

IA-2

ME-1

MA-6

MS-4

MO-3

NM-03

NY-27

OH-6

OK-2

OR-1

PA-17

TX-27

UT-2

VA-11

WA-9

WV-03

Likely Democratic: 

CA-18

CA-20

CO-3

CT-4

CT-5

FL-22

GA-2

GA-12

ID-1

IL-8

IL-17

KY-3

MA-5

MI-9

MN-1

NJ-12

NY-1

NY-25

NC-2

NC-7

NC-11

OH-13

OR-5

PA-4

PA-10

PA-12

RI-1

WA-2

WI-3

Lean Democratic:

AL-2

AZ-1

AZ-5

CO-7

DE-AL

GA-8

IN-2

IA-3

KY-6

LA-2

MA-10

MO-4

NJ-3

NM-1

NY-13

NY-19

NY-23

NC-8

OH-18

SC-5

TN-4

TX-23

VA-9

WI-8

Tossup:

AZ-8

CA-11

HI-1

IL-10

IL-14

IN-9

MI-7

NY-1

NY-20

OH-16

PA-3

PA-8

SD-AL

TX-17

VA-5

WV-1

WI-7

Lean Republican:

AR-1

CO-4

FL-2

FL-8

FL-24

IL-11

IN-8

KS-3

MD-1

MI-1

MS-1

NV-3

NH-1

NH-2

NM-2

NY-24

NY-29

ND-AL

OH-1

OH-15

PA-7

PA-11

TN-8

VA-2

WA-3

Likely Republican:

AL-5

AZ-3

AR-2

CA-3

FL-25

LA-3

PA-15

TN-6

WA-8

Safe Republican:

CA-44

CA-45

FL-12

KS-4

MI-3

MN-6

NE-2

OH-12

PA-6