After some recent discussions on here regarding wealthier suburban districts that have been held by Republicans since 1994, but lean Democratic, I have compiled a list of such districts:
These districts were selected for meeting the following criteria:
1) Above average median income (42,000 per individual or higher)
2) A PVI score of D even to D+7
3) Held by a Republican for at least one term since 1994
In no way I claim any of these seats are in play, but I am just providing a list of seats that could fall if the anti-Democratic wave is concentrated in suburban districts. Many of them are considered in play though. Others probably are not in play unless the Democratic incumbent runs a terrible campaign and/or the Republican runs a really competent campaign.
Colorado-7
Ed Perlmutter – D+4
Connecticut-2
Joe Courtney – D+6
Connecticut-4
Jim Himes – D+5
Connecticut-5
Chris Murphy – D+2
Florida-22
Ron Klein – D+1
Iowa-3
Leonard Boswell – D+1
Maryland-2
Dutch Ruppersberger – D+7
Massachusetts-6
John Tierney – D+7
Michigan-9
Gary Peters – D+2
New Jersey-12
Rush Holt – D+5
New York-1
Tim Bishop – D-EVEN
New York-2
Steve Israel – D+4
New York-4
Carolyn McCarthy – D+6
New York-25
Dan Maffei – D+3
Ohio-15
Mary Jo Kilroy – D+1
Oregon-5
Kurt Schrader – D+1
Pennsylvania-7
Joe Sestak – D+3 (Open)
Pennsylvania-8
Patrick Murphy – D+2
Pennsylvania-13
Allyson Schwartz – D+7
Virginia-11
Gerry Connolly – D+2
Washington-2
Rick Larsen – D+3
Washington-9
Adam Smith – D+5