A few posters asked me for the basis of my prediction that the Republicans would probably gain between 40 and 60 seats. While I lean closer to a number in the low 40s, I break down every seat that I could consider possibly at play in this environment based on the following factors:
1) Open Seat or Not
2) Seat that has been held by a Republican since 2003, but flipped to the Democrats since 2003
3) Seats that are represented by a Democrat, but voted for Bush and/or McCain
Here is how I break down the race per seat. I have this in a chart, but have had problems uploading it to the site. To view it in chart form click here.
Safe Democratic:
AR-4
CA-47
CT-02
IA-1
IA-2
ME-1
MA-6
MS-4
MO-3
NM-03
NY-27
OH-6
OK-2
OR-1
PA-17
TX-27
UT-2
VA-11
WA-9
WV-03
Likely Democratic:
CA-18
CA-20
CO-3
CT-4
CT-5
FL-22
GA-2
GA-12
ID-1
IL-8
IL-17
KY-3
MA-5
MI-9
MN-1
NJ-12
NY-1
NY-25
NC-2
NC-7
NC-11
OH-13
OR-5
PA-4
PA-10
PA-12
RI-1
WA-2
WI-3
Lean Democratic:
AL-2
AZ-1
AZ-5
CO-7
DE-AL
GA-8
IN-2
IA-3
KY-6
LA-2
MA-10
MO-4
NJ-3
NM-1
NY-13
NY-19
NY-23
NC-8
OH-18
SC-5
TN-4
TX-23
VA-9
WI-8
Tossup:
AZ-8
CA-11
HI-1
IL-10
IL-14
IN-9
MI-7
NY-1
NY-20
OH-16
PA-3
PA-8
SD-AL
TX-17
VA-5
WV-1
WI-7
Lean Republican:
AR-1
CO-4
FL-2
FL-8
FL-24
IL-11
IN-8
KS-3
MD-1
MI-1
MS-1
NV-3
NH-1
NH-2
NM-2
NY-24
NY-29
ND-AL
OH-1
OH-15
PA-7
PA-11
TN-8
VA-2
WA-3
Likely Republican:
AL-5
AZ-3
AR-2
CA-3
FL-25
LA-3
PA-15
TN-6
WA-8
Safe Republican:
CA-44
CA-45
FL-12
KS-4
MI-3
MN-6
NE-2
OH-12
PA-6
I find it very weird how you have it as Likely D while you put seats like UT-02, AR-04, and MS-04 as Safe Dem. RI-01 would go Republican long after those seats, trust me. And you have it as less safe for Democrats than you have PA-06 for the Republicans which is weird because Gerlach’s victories have all been narrow. And IMO Manan Trivedi seems stronger than Lois Murphy or Bob Roggio.
Also, I’m not sure I completely understand the criteria for which seats you list on this. Some seats such as MA-06 and NM-03 do not fit the three criteria you list at the top.
I’d quibble with your ranking of VA-11 as “safe” democrat. It should be in the Lean Dem category at best.
This is my home district and I can tell you that Connolly has done little to endear himself to the district. Lots of democrats don’t apprectiate his rough tactics employed throughout his career in politics. Also he tried to play health-care both ways. Teasing the media he was still undecided pissed a lot of people off.
Without a strong Obama surge he will have a much harder time winning.
having KS-04, PA-06, NE-02, MN-06 and FL-25 as safe Republican is truly a head scratcher for me, even in this environment. Especially FL-25, and the fact you overlook what a strong candidate Omaha Mayor Tom White is and the amount of money Taryl Clark has raised. Bachman simply isn’t popular enough to pass 50% of the vote in this district, regardless of the environment. CA-45 too, it probably won’t flip, but Pougnet is a very well funded, unusually strong candidate, the likes of which Bono-Mack has never faced in any of her elections.
Of course your leans Republican list is even more outrageous in my mind. I can’t imagine how in the world you can write off Shea-Porter, especially given the nasty back and forth primary and the weakness of Frank Guinta, the likely Republican nominee. Or by what possible mental calculus you think Allen Boyd is going to lose to some under-funded nobody in a relatively swingish district. So what his primary was close? It was close because black voters and liberals voted against him, not the dixiecrats. The people who voted against him in the primary are the ones that will still vote for him in the general, which means he’s as strong as ever, if a little poorer. Had Lawson won I would have agreed with this rating, but as he didn’t, I can’t imagine how you could think that way. IL-11 is even worse. That’s simply mind-boggling. I’d assume you’re doing it on the basis of those pair of sketchy polls done by a pollster that had her up by 2 points in their final 2008 poll, (she won by 25).
But then again you’re Florida ratings seem whacky all around. You’ve got FL-24 and FL-08 leaning to the Republicans, despite two well-funded incumbents in Democratic trending swing districts, and despite both Republican nominees emerged broke from extended primaries that they won with less than 40% of the vote. Those are pure toss ups in any way you shake it and there is no public polling to say otherwise.
But the one rating that made me laugh and choke on my drink was NY-20 as a toss up. Possibly the most hilarious bit I’ve seen in a while. How despite landslides across the board statewide, and Democratic coattails all around, (including from his former Representative Gillibrand), the incredibly well-funded Murphy is in a toss up race against a gadfly teabagging military guy? The same with CA-11, that McNerney, in this Democratic leaning and trending district is in a toss up race with a guy like Harmer?
Though that makes a lot more sense than AZ-08 being a toss up. Jesse Kelly is such a, (for lack of better words), political noob, that most of the Tuscon tea party leadership was actually backing Paton, who still lost. Not only that but he’s broke, (compared to Giffords 2.2 million dollar warchest), and he’s pretty radically conservative and, from what I’ve been told, doesn’t mesh well with moderates.
In some places I might be more pessimistic than you, but on the most part I disagree with these placements, (NV-03 and CO-04 lean Republican?). Of course I’ve been meaning to do one of my own, but the problem is it would take forever and I’d end up writing 30 pages or so, as I’d end up writing two to three paragraphs about every single race.
1. NV-3: I have seen no poll with Joe Heck leading. The M-D polls show Titus nosing ahead by a point or two. This is toss-up for sure for me. Based on her first ad, she’s going to run on the quality of her constituent services.
2. MD-1: An internal from Kratovil showed him ahead of Harris (who ran in ’08 and therefore is known) a while back. Kratovil is from the East Shore and has voted his district well. Fellow, Marylandian (I have no idea what they call themselves) Steny Hoyer is supposedly going to lend lots of help Kratovil.
3. IN-8: We need more info on this district before we can accurately rate it anything other than toss-up.
4. FL-24: The primary eliminated Craig Miller, who would have been the stronger candidate. Toss-up here.
5. NH-1: Shea-Porter is doing well according to the last poll, is doing good for campaign funds, and faces a split Republican field. This is a toss-up as well for me.
While I think Dem losses will be less that this, and I’m probably closer to jwaalk in what I think about the election, I appreciate the time that went into doing this. It’s always interesting to hear different perspectives – something I think SSP has been excelling in lately.
If those polls by that conservative outlet with Chabot-47 and Driehaus-45 are accurate, this could be a toss-up.
If Paton had won, it would be a toss-up. I rate it as Lean Dem now.
that you took the time to come up with this list. In all seriousness it actually looks quite similar to my own, with some races shifted farther toward the Rs, which makes sense since you have a net of 40-45 seats going red, and I had just 31 as of last check.
This is a very well put together list, and I have very few seats to disagree with, although the few I do have I am quite adamant about. Here they are:
1.AZ-8 – With Jonathan Paton losing to Jesse Kelly, a mediocre candidate with little cash, I don’t see how the strong, well-funded Gabrielle Giffords drops this one. I’m between Lean and Likely D here. The PVI of R+4 is a bit misleading too because of the McCain home-state vote.
2.NY-20 – This is definitely not a toss-up, seeing as the R’s suffered major candidate fail and Scott Murphy is a very good campaigner (wouldn’t have beaten Tedisco otherwise). With Kirsten Gillibrand atop the ballot (as well as Schumer and Cuomo, though she’s the big one), Murphy should get pulled across the line even if the Dems drop 60 seats.
3.FL-12/KS-4/MN-6 – All three of these seats are definitely not safe republican. Polling has shown Raj Goyle and Tarryl Clark competitive in their races, and Lori Edwards is not only competitive but has actually led on a few occasions despite her generally poor fundraising. I think Bachmann’s strong base republican support and fundraising will ultimately save her, but don’t sleep on the other two, especially FL-12 where Alex Sink will probably win outright and provide coattails as she’s from Central FL.
…GOP net gains should be in the low 40s. That’s where I’d peg it.
I think breaking 50 is not realistic right now without something new driving the electorate even further away from Dems. The oil spill ultimately will have been one thing like that cost Democrats a few seats, and maybe flips the House……an example of unexpected and uncontrollable events roiling the electorate, and an election.
I will say I think “likely R” is flat-out WRONG on FL-25, I think that one is lean R at worst for Democrats. I actually can see Garcia pulling out a win no matter the national environment, given how that race is developing.
My list of flips seems to become more regional the longer I work at it. It would be a long long post to argue them, but I think the Democratic base 38% simply won’t actually stay away from the polls. It’s not 1994 for them. But that base is shifting regionally as elderly white Southerners and Plains Staters in small or medium size towns die away, or shift. The new midterm Democratic voters replacing them are in cities throughout the Sun Belt. Which means the Democratic vote is more liberal and increasingly concentrates into fewer House and state legislative districts but at the same time disperses into more states, i.e. Senate and governor seats. (Which is bad until it reaches a critical mass.)
I see more conservaDem carnage in the South/Plains/southern Midwest than the top post suggests and a lot less elsewhere. I’m at 25-30 net Democratic losses in the House, 35 tops.