After some recent discussions on here regarding wealthier suburban districts that have been held by Republicans since 1994, but lean Democratic, I have compiled a list of such districts:
These districts were selected for meeting the following criteria:
1) Above average median income (42,000 per individual or higher)
2) A PVI score of D even to D+7
3) Held by a Republican for at least one term since 1994
In no way I claim any of these seats are in play, but I am just providing a list of seats that could fall if the anti-Democratic wave is concentrated in suburban districts. Many of them are considered in play though. Others probably are not in play unless the Democratic incumbent runs a terrible campaign and/or the Republican runs a really competent campaign.
Colorado-7
Ed Perlmutter – D+4
Connecticut-2
Joe Courtney – D+6
Connecticut-4
Jim Himes – D+5
Connecticut-5
Chris Murphy – D+2
Florida-22
Ron Klein – D+1
Iowa-3
Leonard Boswell – D+1
Maryland-2
Dutch Ruppersberger – D+7
Massachusetts-6
John Tierney – D+7
Michigan-9
Gary Peters – D+2
New Jersey-12
Rush Holt – D+5
New York-1
Tim Bishop – D-EVEN
New York-2
Steve Israel – D+4
New York-4
Carolyn McCarthy – D+6
New York-25
Dan Maffei – D+3
Ohio-15
Mary Jo Kilroy – D+1
Oregon-5
Kurt Schrader – D+1
Pennsylvania-7
Joe Sestak – D+3 (Open)
Pennsylvania-8
Patrick Murphy – D+2
Pennsylvania-13
Allyson Schwartz – D+7
Virginia-11
Gerry Connolly – D+2
Washington-2
Rick Larsen – D+3
Washington-9
Adam Smith – D+5
the only ones i’d say are totally safe are courtney, tierney, ruppersburger, holt, schwartz, and smith. so it’s actually not a bad list.
and they haven’t been represented by a Republican since the 2000 redistricting. These include NJ-12, PA-13 and MD-2
…my Virginia House District, HD-34, knocked out a well-liked incumbent Democratic Delegate, Margi Vanderhye, for a very conservative Republican, Barbara Comstock. Ultimately it all came down to turnout driven by the Governor’s race, as 6 of the 7 Democratic precincts in the district had lower absolute turnout than 4 years earlier in spite of significant growth in voter registration. But HD-34 might be literally the wealthiest state legislative district in the entire country, and it’s also a Democratic lean that voted for Kerry and Obama and opposed the referendum that banned gay marriage. My very precinct is an affluent one, but still Vanderhye and Democratic A.G. candidate Steve Shannon prevailed in it.
It really all came down to pocketbook issues trumping social issues in voters’ minds, just as you theorize in this fall’s midterms.
So yeah, I can see your theory coming to fruition.
North Carolina’s Fourth Congressional district barely falls outside your criteria for districts you list here. It has above average median income and was held by a Republican for one term when he won during the Republican revolution year of 1994. Its PVI is D+8 which barely doesn’t meet your threshold of not more than D+7. David Price was the Congressman for the district for several terms until ’94, he lost that year, and won back the seat in ’96. His opponent is B.J. Lawson, an entrepreneur in the medical field. Lawson, in many respects, identifies with Libertarian principles. He ran against Price in ’08 and did respectable compared to other no-names running against longtime Democratic incumbents in significantly Democratic districts. There was recent news of Lawson leading Price 46.5-46 in a poll conducted by Action Solutions. I don’t know much about the poll or the polling company that conducted it. Lawson is at a severe disadvantage but this race might go up on people’s radar screens.
and IA-03 is almost right in line with the national average according to the NY Times.
I’m not disagreeing that the seat is in play, but I don’t consider IA-03 a “wealthy” district.
as I think you mischaracterize this sub-section of districts as Dem leaning when it’s actually a range from Dem leaning to total swing. And there are several R PVI districts that fit into the group you have compiled; wealthy and considered swingish (Bush/Obama districts), with PA-6 being a great example of a home state example for you that didnt make your cut. We have high hopes but eh, I have serious doubts because this is a district I expect to snap back.
My home state example of MN-3 is what made me think this as I have very much bought into your, the Dems are screwed in suburban areas vs rural ones more so because I’ve gone through and done a bit of an analysis of the Twin City suburbs, so I was expecting to see it. MN-3, quintessential upper/upper middle class suburban district, has quickly become nearly Democratic dominated in many levels of political office. Yet, the trend looks extremely soft and the numbers not nearly as impressive as I had thought. Although, the numbers look crappy because I wasnt expecting the giant divide in upper class suburb vs upper middle class suburb. In 2004, the suburbs where a family median income was around 100k had a solid shift to Kerry while the ones around 65k had a solid shift to Bush. So that is one thing to consider, we may not do so poorly with upper class areas in the snap back but upper middle class could be bad.
Im expecting some ugly things for the DFL majorities in the state legislature in some parts of the suburbs here, probably accounting for over half the losses in an area representing maybe 1/4th the state. But alas, having 2/3rds in the senate and just under 2/3rds in the house gives you some lee-way. 🙂