Author: arealmlc

We’re going way downballot, baby. As I like to say: SSPers do it downballot.  [and yes, I would buy a t-shirt that said that]

Wait, what is the DLCC and what are their essential races?

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is the downballot counterpart to the attention-hogging DCCC (triage!) and DSCC (save the saucer!). They focus on state legislative races and are especially active this cycle with redistricting hanging in the balance. State legislatures, of course, are crucial players in the process, and swinging them our way will help prevent DeLaymanders. The DLCC party poohbahs, as it were, selected 40 races, mostly focused on redistricting and the most hotly-contested state houses. Party Picks 1-20. Party Picks 21-40. But then the DLCC did something that made me love them. Oh yes, love. The DLCC solicited right here on SSP, nominations for more of these Essential downballot races. And apparently, we nominated the hell out of our candidates, because the DLCC announced The Grassroots 15, instead of just 10. And frankly, looking at the grassroots nominees, we did good y’all.

Why should I care?

Besides being SSP’s bread and butter (well, Congressional races are probably the bread & butter…downballot is more like…the arugula?), I would posit that it is these sort of races that are truly the purest form of American democracy. The Founders, I think, both envisioned and practiced this sort of meet-your-neighbors campaigning. Downballot races are also much more dependent on candidates–almost never national forces sweep in and, say, donate $13 million to Sharron Angle when she’s running for the Nevada state legislature. But the great thing from the perspective of civic-minded citizens is that participating in races like these can yield bigger and more tangible results than say, giving Jack Conway $20 (not that there’s anything wrong with that). But when $20-$25k is enough for the entire race, even a small donation to Manning’s campaign can make a big difference. So why does the DLCC say this race matters?

Why this Race Matters: This campaign turned ugly for Democratic nominee Dan Manning a few weeks ago when he discovered a death threat laced with anti-gay slurs on his doorstep. Manning is a decorated West Point graduate who was discharged from the military because of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. If Manning wins his race, factional divisions within the state Republican Party would give him considerably more influence in the Kansas House than the GOP’s wide chamber majority would suggest.

Plus, as our own James L. pointed out in a 2006 diary:

Democratic gains in state legislatures are crucial for building the “farm team” for higher offices.

That James L. link btw, enumerates the gains made in state legislatures in the 2006 election. And James, of course, is/was right–state Rep. Raj Goyle (KS-04) and state Rep. Bryan Lentz (PA-07), for example, are now in tight races for Congress, and were among those 268 net pickups in 2006 (that was in state Houses alone).

Well, in Dan Manning, Democrats may have a candidate who could eventually go far, far beyond the mostly middle-class neighborhoods of Wichita’s 91st District. Find out why, after the jump….

THE CANDIDATE:

Dan “Death Threat” Manning … oh yeah, I’m making that his official nickname now.

Since we last checked in on him and his campaign, as well as other top state legislative races in Kansas, Dan “Death Threat” Manning has emerged as one of the Kansas Democratic Party’s most formidable new candidates.

He’s like the new Sean Tevis, except way, way different.

Georgia-born Dan Manning is a West Point grad (’04) and Mandarin-speaking military vet booted from the Army thanks to “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” (timely!).

If I have the story right, Manning actually “told” via press release upon announcing the formal creation of Knights Out, the pro-LGBT, anti-DADT West Point alumni group. Manning currently sits on the Knights Out board.

UPDATE: Yeah, I was totally wrong. He was outed and kicked out before they did the whole press release thing. Still, I’ve never come out via press release, and I don’t really know of many who have.

Btw, guess who Dan Manning recruited to be spokesperson and a co-founder of Knights Out? Dan Choi.

So yes, gays, you partially have Dan Manning to thank for Dan Choi becoming the badass LGBT activist he is today.

After all, Dan Choi probably wouldn’t have been on TV talking to Rachel Maddow if he wasn’t speaking for Knights Out at the time. And thus, no springboard to national fame.  

No seriously, thank you for Dan Choi.

After getting his honorable discharge from the US Army, Manning put his artillery battalion skills to use in electrical engineering and business management, oh, and picked up an MBA and started work on a PhD. After almost four years in the private sector, he currently serves as a production supervisor at AGCO, which manufactures tractors and all manner of farming-related “Serious Machinery” in Hesston, KS, a little ways north of Wichita.

I honestly couldn’t have written a better profile for the first openly-gay member of the state Legislature…and I’m, like, a really good writer. As a campaigner, the West Point discipline has him canvassing and campaigning with precision, and it also neutralizes much of the potential antipathy from the D by his name and the rainbow in his heart. He works at an actual factory (Labor) but as a managerial type (Business) who is soon to have a PhD (Education/Professionals). Sure, he’s gay (LGBT) but he was a soldier first (Military). Oh, and did I mention he manufactures tractors and farming equipment (Farmers).

Let’s see…Labor, Business, Professionals, LGBT, Military, and Farmers….that’s not just a Democratic coalition that can win in Kansas, that’s a Democratic coalition that can wipe the floor with its opponents in Kansas. Basically, Dan Manning has the Kansas version of the profile Harvey Milk wished he’d had. Look, I don’t invoke the de-facto Gay MLK lightly (well, he was a politician, so maybe Milk is the…Gay Obama?). But it’s true. Manning has the profile to do really, really well in politics. And dude’s just 30, and if he wins this year, as I think he probably will in the end, he could be … is… someone good.

THE OPPONENT:

Dan Manning’s opponent is state Rep. Brenda Landwehr, who has been in the Legislature since 1995 and now serves as the Health & Human Services Chair. Her biggest donor? The KS Hospital Association, of course, followed immediately by Koch Industries, then the KS Bankers Association, rounded off by everyone’s favorite small business killer: Wal-Mart. Quite a Top 4, even for a hard-right Republican…

While she has a long anti-gay, anti-moderate, anti-anything-but-super-conservative record, Landwehr’s latest media buzz was as an attack dog against fellow state Rep. Raj Goyle, the well-funded Democrat making a strong bid to become Wichita’s Congressman. She made her forceful comments as a main backer of Mike Pompeo at a Republican legislator unity rally that turned out to be not-so-united when Pompeo’s primary rival, moderate state Sen. Jean Schodorf, was a no-show. Source: Wichita Eagle

If moderate Republicans don’t come home to Pompeo (and his ineffectual campaign doesn’t seem to be helping), Kansas could end up electing an Indian-American Democrat to a R+14 seat.

Yes, Pompeo may yet win the KS-04 seat thanks to its ruby red nature, but he is not particularly popular outside of the Koch set. The 91st, on the other hand, the one Brenda Landwehr actually has to run in, is decidedly swingy–purple, if you will.  Let’s explore it!

THE BATTLEFIELD:

Welcome to Wichita, Kansas, the biggest city in the state we all think of as “Home” (thanks Wizard of Oz!). In the 91st district, you’ve got partisan demographics that are pretty close to those statewide.

Partisan Makeup of Kansas: 43.5R/27D/28.6U

Partisan Makeup of the 91st District:  42R/31D/26.4U

As you can see on the District Map, the 91st is located in the northern reaches of the city of Wichita. Most of these areas are relatively new-ish and decidedly middle-class. They’re mostly the type of folks who are scrupulous with their yards, and picky with their political yard signs.

Finally, a note to Karl Rove wannabes: the death threat is not an effective political weapon. It will almost certainly backfire…especially when you try it on a West Point graduate who knows how to handle a gun.

Please help win this Essential Race for Kansas, America, rainbows, puppies, children, veterans and the American Way:

Donate to Dan Manning by clicking here.

Please help. Seriously. Please. Pretty please with a cherry on top. Please. Dan Manning actually has “first LGBT President of the United States” potential. Do it for America.

Today marks the conclusion of a 3-part series examining the state of the Kansas state House of Representatives. In previous diaries, I ran through KS House seats 1-40 (start there if you’re just joining us) as well as KS House seats 41-80. In this edition, I’ll examine seats 81-125, which include most of the seats in rural Western Kansas, as well as some in the Wichita area.

KANSAS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES – 125 seats

Current composition: 76 Republicans, 49 Democrats (or about 61%-39%)

HOW TO READ THE COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:

KS-HR-# <—this is the district’s number

43.5R/27D/28.6U   <—this is the voter affiliation breakdown, R is Republican, D is for Democrat, and U is unaffiliated voters. Statewide, as of June 2010, the state’s registration numbers were 43.5% Republican, 27.2% Democrat, and 28.6% Unaffiliated.  Also, unless the tenth of a percent is a 4, 5 or 6, I rounded to the nearest full percentage point.

District Map    <—-this is the official map from this district from: KSLegislature.org the official state gov’t site.

MAIN SOURCES:

Candidate Guide + District PVIs from Capitol Strategies LLC [pdf]

Guide to every KS House seat’s past voting from OurCampaigns.com

Candidate Fundraising from Ethics.ks.gov

COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:

KS-HR-81: 47R/22D/30.6U : District Map : (R) Peter DeGraaf was appointed to the seat in early 2008, and won it outright in 2008 after a competitive primary with 55% in the general election. So it’s a seat that can be competitive. Unfortunately, the best Dems could come up with this cycle was 21-year-old Wichita State student Zach Ketteman. Still, Ketteman is at least giving it a go, campaigning hard and scoring several endorsements, and getting fined by the state Ethics Commission for forgetting to include “Paid For By…” on campaign materials (along with several others, btw). Whoops. Well, at least we know he’s sending out campaign materials. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-82: 48.6R/21.4D/29.4U  : District Map : (R) Open (retirement of Don Myers) – KS Dem Party Exec. Board member & Dem national committeeman Lee Kinch, an attorney, is running, which is about as solid a recruit as you could land in this suburban Wichita district centered on Derby. Though it is a fairly Republican district, the Republican primary winner faced a three-way primary. Unfortunately for Democrats, the best-funded, most active and most-endorsed Republican candidate, Jim Howell, won. If Howell can retain most of the Republican base, he’ll win. Still, with Goyle leading local Dems, don’t count Kinch out completely. Kinch’s bio. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-83: 53R/25.5D/21U : District Map :  (R) In office since 1985, Jo Ann Pottorff was the only Wichita Republican to vote for the state’s temporary sales tax increase, which garnered her her first primary challenge in recent memory. She barely defeated college grad Kyle Amos 53-47, which could mean trouble: there’s a Libertarian on the ballot, which could draw conservative votes from Pottorff.  Her general election opponent is Sean Amore, a 34-year-old with a wife and young daughter, who is a Green Biz Wichita Executive Committee member, part of the United Way’s Young Leaders Association, and one of the “40 Under 40” according to the Wichita Business Journal.  Still, the moderate Pottorff hasn’t won a general election with less than two-thirds of the vote in this heavily Republican district many, many cycles, so Amore faces a tough task. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-87: 38.2R/31.5D/29.8U : District Map (D) Open (Raj Goyle) – Boeing Military Aviation Supervisor Om Chauhan, the Democrat, faces off against “self-proclaimed Todd Tiahrt conservative” Joseph Scapa in this rapidly blueing district. And fortunately for Chauhan, the locals are already used to a state Rep. with a kinda-funny furriner name thanks to Goyle. Chauhan’s actively campaigning and has a fairly snazzy website.  Rating: Lean Democrat

Nice lady-mullet, Brenda. Flowbie or John Deere?

KS-HR-91: 42R/31D/26.4U : District Map : (R) Brenda Landwehr – Health Committee Chair Landwehr has held this gradually-blueing seat since 1994, but she’ll face a stiff challenge from West Point grad Dan Manning, who has a fairly nice-looking website (http://manningforkansas.com/) and appears to be campaigning pretty hard. The seat leans Republican only slightly, and the hard-right Landwehr had somewhat close calls in 2002 (54.5%) and 2006 (52.9%) though she nabbed 61.6% in 2008 and 64% in 2004. In other words, non-presidential-year elections are her toughies, and with a solid opponent, this might be the off-year she finally goes down. Rating: Lean Republican UPDATE: I missed a little factoid in Manning’s bio: he’s trying to become the state’s first openly-gay legislator. Sweetheart that she is, this led Landwehr to stir up homophobia among local Republicans, which got Manning a death threat taped to the door of his home. That’s pretty unprecedented in KS politics, especially for just one of 125 seats in the lower house of the legislature. It will also make a lot of local moderates think twice about voting for Landwehr, and if Manning can use his newfound notoriety to attract donations and run a strong campaign, he stands a darn good shot at winning. Ahem, looking at you, JoeMyGod. Come on Joe, he’s basically a ready-made bear icon and if you ask your readers for donations, you should know their money can go really far in Kansas. Full disclosure: I’ve now contributed $75 and counting to Manning’s campaign, the only KS candidate I’ve given to this cycle (well, him and Sean Tevis). Won’t you join me? Otherwise, I’m unaffiliated with his campaign…or any of these campaigns.

KS-HR-96: 34.5R/31D/33.7U : District Map : (R) Phil Hermanson – Democrat Brandon Whipple has raised about $20k, enough for a state rep. race, certainly. His opponent, Republican Phil Hermanson, is a first-termer who got 50.2% of the vote to defeat freshman Democrat Terry McLachlan, who’d won his seat with just 50.3% of the vote in 2006. Thankfully for Dems, Hermanson is a notoriously lazy campaigner, while Whipple’s a young, go-getting teacher and a Wichita State grad, his website is appropriately good (www.whippleforkansas.com)  and he definitely seems to be campaigning hard. The picture of him & Sebelius on his website doesn’t hurt, either. Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-97: 33.5R/32D/34U :  District Map  : (R–>D) Dale Swenson – First elected in 1994, Dale Swenson made some headlines when he switched parties shortly after being re-elected as a Republican in 2008. Though his district has become quite blue, the moderate Swenson won handily in his previous races (61.4% in ’08 and 64.5% in ’06) so it’s not terribly clear to me why he switched…unless he wants to run for the state Senate (which he did, in a Republican special election in 2003, but lost) as a Democrat. If he runs for the Senate, he might be up against Dick Kelsey (who may retire, he dropped out of the KS-04 race this year, despite being the favorite) in Senate District 26. But first, Swenson has to win in 2010 as a Democrat. In the general election, he’ll face retired consultant and “perennial candidate”/Some Dude Leslie Osterman, who, interestingly, actually ran for the seat in 2000–against Swenson–as a Democrat…and lost badly (66-34). Frankly, based on this Wichita Independent Business Association survey, Osterman doesn’t seem too bright. Rating: Likely Democrat

KS-HR-101: 46R/24.4D/29U : District Map : (R) Joe Seiwert – Freshman Seiwert knocked off incumbent Democrat Mark Treaster 51-49 in 2008, while Treaster had defeated the previous Republican incumbent in ’04 with a similar percentage. Seiwert’s 2010 opponent, Democrat Curtis “Curt” Miller, is the mayor of Pretty Prairie. Unfortunately, Pretty Prairie, a suburb/exurb of Hutchinson, has well under 1000 people. Still, that’s a good profile for this exurban-Hutchinson Reno County district. Libertarian Thad Bartley is also running, which could draw votes from Seiwert.  Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-105: 48R/23D/28.5U : District Map : (R/Open) Gene Suellentrop – The owner of a Gambino’s Pizza is up against dietician Jane Byrnes, who did respectably well in 2006 (not 2008, as it says on the Capitol Strategies pdf), winning 40% of the vote against previous incumbent Jason Watkins, who left the seat in 2009, leading to Suellentrop’s appointment. Still, Suellentrop’s never faced voters and the suburban/exurban parts of Wichita (like this district) can be swingy. Byrnes, a Catholic grandmother of six, also scores well for civic involvement, having launched the Westlink Neighborhood Association and served on various local committees. Plus, she has the best-named website of any candidate: http://campaignjane.com/   Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-108:  51.6R/21.5D/26U : District Map : (D/Open) Don Svaty – Don was appointed to this seat by local Democrats after his son, Josh Svaty, resigned midway through his fourth term to become KS Secretary of Agriculture (a pretty important post in KS, as you might imagine). Don, like his son, has hewed to a pretty Blue Dog-ish line, taking very pro-life and pro-gun lines. Josh held the seat extremely well, defeating an incumbent in 2002 with 66%, getting 60% in 2004, unchallenged in ’06, and taking 63.2% in 2008. Can his Pops do the same? Uh…maybe. He’s up against a very strong candidate in Steven Johnson, a local boy who was Saline South High valedictorian (1984), Student Body President at Kansas State (1988), got an MBA from the Univ. of Chicago, and served on the investment committee of K-State & the 4-H and farms locally in addition to serving as a Sr. VP for a distribution company. Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-112: 53.6R/20.4D/25.6U : District Map : (R) William Wolf is running for his third term, after winning his first and second with 50.3% and 53% of the vote, respectively. He faces a competitive opponent in the form of the comely young Christina Stein, a social worker, substitute teacher, and contributor to the Kansas Free Press. While she’s from Michigan, she points out that she’s from a much smaller town than the one she wants to represent (Great Bend is the main city in the district). Even better, there’s a picture of her as a teenager with a dead deer she shot on her FAQ page.   Her slogan: Christina Stein, Gun-Totin’ Democrat. Hot.  Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-116: 58R/20.5D/21U : District Map  : (D) Patrick “Pat” Maloney – Maloney was appointed to succeed Dennis McKinney upon his becoming state treasurer and has yet to face voters. The only credible comparison for this district is McKinney’s 2002 victory, wherein he beat Republican M.T. Liggett 76-24. Other than that, McKinney went uncontested in ’04, ’06 and ’08. Patrick Maloney is not so lucky–he’ll face Kyle Hoffman, a farmer and owner of Central Fuel & Service in Coldwater, KS. Hoffman is also the elected chair and 13-year member of the Comanche County Conservation District. McKinney, btw, will be on the ballot in 2010–running for a full term as State Treasurer, which could help Maloney, especially as they have separate bases–McKinney in Greensburg (Kiowa Co.) and Maloney in Kingman (Kingman Co.) while Hoffman, presumably, would do well in Comanche, with Barber in the middle as the swinger. Rating: Tossup  

KS-HR-119: 40R/26D/33U : District Map : (R) Pat George – There’s a slight chance that challenger Rebecca Escalante will improve enough upon her previous performance that it won’t be an embarrassing 76-24 loss. This district has turned rapidly red–Democrat Ethel Peterson won it in 2002 with 55%, though George defeated her replacement by a whopping 68-32. I mostly just like Escalante’s name, though local voters (turned xenophobic by an influx of Latinos) probably don’t. Rating: Safe Republican

KS-HR-120: 66R/16D/17U :  District Map : (R/Open) It would be insane if Democrat Robert Strevey actually won, after having run every year since 2002 against Republican John Faber (who was first elected in 1996). Of course, this year, retired principal Strevey won’t be facing Faber, he’ll face newcomer Ward Cassidy, a retired teacher from St. Francis who won the primary 56-44. If Strevey wins, he is the new Walt Minnick. However, against a relative unknown like Cassidy, Strevey could have a chance, since folks will obviously recognize his name on the ballot more than Cassidy’s. Rating: Likely Republican

2010 OVERALL RACE RATINGS:

Uncontested Democrats: 05, 08, 32, 33, 34, 37, 44, 46, 58, 63, 78, 89, 102, 103, 111 (total: 15)

Safe Dem:  01, 02, 03, 31, 35, 36, 53, 55, 56, 57, 66, 84, 86, 88, 92, 95, 98 (total: 17)

Likely Dem:  23, 24, 40, 62, 80, 97 (total: 6)

Lean Dem: 04, 10, 18, 22, 41, 65, 67, 87 (total: 8)

Projected (meaning Lean D and above) Democrat: 46

Tossups: 16, 17, 19, 39, 45, 69, 72, 96, 101, 108, 116 (total: 11)

Uncontested Republicans: 06, 07, 11, 26, 27, 30, 48, 50, 61, 73, 77, 79, 85, 90, 93, 99, 100, 106, 107, 113, 114, 115, 117, 123, 125  (total: 25)

Intraparty only, Republicans: 09, 13, 51, 64, 68, 70, 94, 109, 110, 118, 121, 122, 124 (total: 13)

Safe Republican:  12, 21, 74, 76, 104, 119 (total: 6)

Likely Rep: 15, 28, 29, 42, 47, 52, 59, 60, 71, 81, 83, 120  (total: 12)

Lean Rep: 14, 20, 25, 38, 43, 49, 54. 75, 82, 91, 105, 112  (total: 12)

Projected Republican: 68

Arealmlc’s final prediction: Downballot Democrats will perform surprisingly well since it’s an off-year, taking a lot of the Tossups and a few Lean Republican seats [looking at you, Landwehr]. With only a handful of potential losses (I’d peg Svaty, Palmer & Hawk as most likely D losses, if there are any).  Combine that with a plethora of offensive opportunities, and Democrats are poised to make modest, but significant gains.

2009-2010 Legislature: 76 Republicans, 49 Democrats (61%-39%)

2011-2012 Legislature: 69 Republicans, 56 Democrats (55%-45%) (arealmlc’s official projection)

Even more importantly, nearly all of the potential pickups will come against conservative Republicans, not moderates.

BEST & WORST OF THE KANSAS HOUSE RACES, 2010:

Best Names:  Shirley Palmer (5th), Keith Mace (49th), Om Chauhan (87th)

Most Kansas-y Named Race:  John Grange (R) Vs. Glenda Reynolds (D) (75th)

Best Mustache: Dale Swenson (97th)

Hottest Female Candidates: Christina Stein (112th) & Shana Althouse (25th)

Hottest Male Candidates: Gerrett Morris (69th)  & Jim Faris (47th)

KS Political Hotties Stein, Morris, Faris & Althouse:



Best Websites: Nancy Bauder (41st – www.nancybauder.com), Brandon Whipple (96th – www.whippleforkansas.com) & Shana Althouse (25th – www.shanaalthouse.com)

If I could pick one candidate to automatically lose: [tie] homophobia-spreader Brenda Landwehr (91st) & Connie O’Brien (42nd) the worst state legislator in Kansas.

If I could pick one candidate to automatically win: [tie] Dan Manning (91st) & Christina Stein (112th)

A GUIDE TO CANDIDATES VIA ENDORSEMENTS:

For a complete list of PACs and their relative power in the state, Kansas Watchdog is a good website with a great resource for Kansas PACs ranked by their relative strength.

Kansas Chamber of Commerce – The Kansas Chamber’s gone teabagger. Not only are their endorsements all Republicans (I think, though 1 or 2 Dems may have slipped in there) but they often waded into primaries to boost conservatives over moderates. Their PAC is ranked as 7th most powerful in the state, but this cycle they had few primary victories to show for it–of the 9 Republican sales-tax-increasing incumbents facing KS Chamber-supported opponents, only one lost: Jill Quigley. The other 8, including Spalding, Pottorff, Roth, and Hill, survived an onslaught of mailers from the KS Chamber and from Americans for Prosperity, the Koch Industries-funded group with radical libertarian leanings. Meanwhile, three Republicans sometimes perceived as moderate (including Salina’s Deena Horst and former Speaker Melvin Neufeld) , but who voted against the tax, lost their primaries. Kansas Chamber endorsements.

Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce + Life Sciences Fund of Greater KC Chamber – The Greater KC Chamber is much more centrist than its KS-only counterpart. If you support stem cell research, you’ll probably get the endorsement of (and money from) at least the Life Sciences Fund, though both organizations are seemingly big fans of smart science education (ie–anti-creationist). Both are among the state’s 20 most powerful PACs (Life Sciences ranked 6th, Greater KC Chamber 18th). Naturally, being pro-business is the main criteria.

Kansans For Life PAC – The biggest and most powerful anti-abortion group in the state is going to be weak this cycle, quite frankly. They’ve got just 5k in the bank as of July 2010, and rank only 19th among state PACs. If you’re adamantly against abortion, you’ll likely gain the support of this group, which, as you might expect, is much stronger in Republican primary battles than general election ones. They have a few local branches which can have some effect on local races: their Greater Kansas City branch ranks 47th statewide. Kansas for Life PAC site. Get their Primary Endorsements on the Topeka Examiner.

KS-NOW – The most direct opposition to Kansans for Life is probably the local chapter of National Organization for Women: if you’re pro-choice, you can probably score their endorsement. For 2010, they endorsed 45 Democrats and 11 Republicans in contested seats. They probably would’ve endorsed more, but apparently, you actually have to want their endorsement to get it. In some swing seats, it’s a positive, in others it’s a negative. Kansas Free Press lists their endorsements.

Mainstream Coalition (MAINstream PAC) – This is an interesting, very Kansas-y organization. The Mainstream Coalition emerged in the mid-1990s, growing out of a frustration of (mostly) Johnson County moderate Republicans pissed that the moderate Republican representatives kept getting primaried–and losing–and then dealing wacky right-wingers in government embarrassing everyone. While active in primaries, they also get involved in general elections to knock out conservatives with Democrats if they can’t win the primary: Dennis Moore was one of their early endorsees and remained in their good graces throughout his career. Their endorsees are considered social moderates if nothing else (meaning: pro-choice, anti-creationist, pro-gay-ish, pro-sex ed, pro-stem cell research) and notably include both Republicans and Democrats. They now have a PAC that gives directly to candidates (ranked 51st of 175 statewide), but their imprimateur carries significant weight among Johnson County moderates and their stated focus on downballot races makes them especially effective when they endorse state rep candidates. Mainstream Coalition Endorsements  

Kansas NEA – The big daddy of pro-education groups in the state, the NEA gives big to Democrats and Republicans, favoring those who are big on education funding. Usually, their endorsement comes with cash as their PAC is among the state’s best-funded. The Kansas Watchdog ranks it as the most powerful PAC in the state. Some related organizations are the KASB (KS Assoc. of School Boards) & USA (United School Administrators) which also have a PAC. KNEA endorsements.

In my last diary, I ran through KS House seats 1-40, so if you haven’t read that, I’d advise starting there. In this edition, I’ll examine seats 40-80, which include some in suburban Johnson County (heavily covered in the previous edition) as well as Topeka, Salina, and much of the eastern & central parts of the state, even reaching down to the Wichita exurbs.

KANSAS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES – 125 seats

Current composition: 76 Republicans, 49 Democrats (or about 61%-39%)

HOW TO READ THE COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:

KS-HR-# <—this is the district’s number

43.5R/27D/28.6U   <—this is the voter affiliation breakdown, R is Republican, D is for Democrat, and U is unaffiliated voters. Statewide, as of June 2010, the state’s registration numbers were 43.5% Republican, 27.2% Democrat, and 28.6% Unaffiliated. Unless the tenth of a percent is a 4, 5 or 6, I rounded to the nearest full percentage point in most cases.

District Map    <—-this is the official map (pdf format) of this district from the Legislature’s website (opens in a new window). Maps from: KSLegislature.org.

MAIN SOURCES:

Candidate Guide + District PVIs from Capitol Strategies LLC [pdf]

Guide to every KS House seat’s past voting from OurCampaigns.com

Candidate Fundraising from Ethics.ks.gov

COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:

KS-HR-41: 32R/34.5D/32.5U : District Map : (D/Open) – With the retirement of Democrat Marti Crow, this still-competitive, but increasingly blue, seat is now open. In 2008, Crow smacked down Republican Jana Taylor Goodman 59-41, who, having won the Republican primary convincingly, is back for another try at the seat in 2010. Crow and other local Democrats are backing Nancy Bauder, the Exec. Dir. of the Community Development Corp. of Leavenworth, and a small business owner. Gov. Parkinson held a fundraiser for Bauder, whose high-quality website makes Goodman’s look outlandishly amateurish. Her economic development credentials are also flawless, and make Goodman’s non-existent ones even more pronounced. Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-42: 41R/27D/31U :  District Map : (R) Connie O’Brien, a retired special education teacher, won her seat in 2008 with almost 60% of the vote against the underfunded Timothy Moran, but faces a challenge from James “Jim” Pittman, a military veteran, engineer, and Chairman of the Lansing Planning Commission. O’Brien, a mother of 11(!) and vice-chair of Leavenworth County Republicans, is a past President (1996) of Kansans for Life, the most powerful local anti-abortion group. As such, she’s aligned herself with the hardcore conservatives, both socially and fiscally. This could make her vulnerable to a strong challenge, though I’m unsure if Pittman can provide it (though he certainly has a good profile to do it). Rating: Likely Republican

On a personal note, having examined lots of local legislators’ websites, voting records, biographies, positions and electoral histories, I have concluded that Connie O’Brien is the single worst person in the entire Kansas Legislature. She is a hardcore, unthinking, dogmatic partisan who insults her fellow legislators (Democrats and Republicans alike) while distorting the work of the Legislature. While Connie’s Corner sounds like the type of place you might find knitting tips, with Connie O’Brien you’ll find intense partisan invective that you won’t find on nearly any other legislator’s website. And what the hell kind of grandmother votes against requiring people to wear seatbelts while voting to let them smoke in restaurants? She is a lying, egotistical, hypocritical bigot whose presence in the Legislature is a disgrace to the state, and especially to the people of Leavenworth County.

Beard Fight!

KS-HR-43: 44R/22D/33.4U :  District Map : (R) Mike Kiegerl (at right) was first elected to this new district upon its creation in 2002. He’s faced a declining share of the vote as the area urbanizes (well, suburbanizes) and grows more moderate, taking only 53% of the vote in 2008 (thanks to a Libertarian eating a huge 12% of the vote). This cycle, he faces Democrat Kevin King (at left), an analyst at Sprint, who looks a bit like Kiegerl, actually. The area remains quite Republican-friendly and Kiegerl has been a low-profile conservative, but King’s been running a pretty strong campaign, racking up endorsements and showing up at community events.  Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-45: 35.6R/32D/32U :  District Map : (R) Tom Sloan – While the moderate Sloan has managed to hold this blue-tinted district since 1995, winning 53-47 over an untested Democrat in 2008, his luck may be about to run out as he faces two-term former Lawrence school board member (and former President) Linda Robinson. She also happens to be a longtime community leader (Governor’s Education Council, Lawrence Chamber of Commerce, Rotary Club, etc) while not being terribly old (I’d guess late 50s?) She’s about as top-tier as they come for a race like this. Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-47: 46R/25D/28.5U : District Map : (R) Lee Tafanelli – First elected in 2000, Tafanelli faced a somewhat close call in 2002, winning 56%. In 2004 & 2008, he was unopposed. He served in Iraq in 2005-2006, but got back in time to defeat the youthful bluegrass musician/student Jim Faris in 2006 with 65% of the vote. He will face Faris, now an Oskaloosa city councilman (pop. 1165), local journalist and paraeducator, again in 2010. It should be a closer race, now that the warm glow of military service has dissipated more fully from Tafanelli and Faris has some local political credibility. Also, Faris plays the upright bass in his family’s mildly successful bluegrass band, which is kinda awesome. And he’s a newlywed and expecting a baby this month, actually. Awww…  Rating: Likely Republican  

KS-HR-49: 48R/21.5D/30U : District Map : (R) Scott Schwab – Aside from practicing his shiiteating grin, Schwab enjoys trying to throttle more representative democracy in its cradle. I first heard of incorrigible douchebag Schwab when he introduced legislation just after the 2008 cycle that became known as the “Sean Tevis Bill”. After Sean Tevis raised $108k from small donors in 2008, Schwab introduced a bill requiring donations under $50 have the same disclosure requirements as big donations–but only if the candidate got a lot of them. Tevis fought back, and with the Internet’s help, the bill got put on ice and Schwab crawled back under a rock. So if you like Sean Tevis–and I know you do because you’re on the Internet right now–consider a donation to Schwab’s opponent, the awesomely-named Keith Mace. Mace was an IT guy and a telecoms expert for the General Services Administration, even serving as Acting Director for the GSA FAST Program (fast acquisition of tech, basically). Also, Mace has a fine, upstanding mustache. Plus, Schwab only got 59% against a non-entity-type opponent in 2008, and uber-conservative Ben Hodge only got 55% here in 2006 (Hodge replaced Schwab when Schwab ran for Dennis Moore’s seat in 2006–and couldn’t even get past the primary). Keith Mace’s website: http://keith4kansas.com/   Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-52:  48.6R/27D/24U :  District Map : (R) Lana Gordon – Kyle Kessler is a reasonably strong opponent (he’d been mentioned as a possible candidate in the post-Laura Kelly days in KS-02 to take on Lynn Jenkins). Unfortunately, this district is probably too red for him to win, especially over the popular and fairly moderate Lana Gordon, who has regularly won with 70%+ of the vote since elected in 2000.  Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-54: 45R/30D/24U :  District Map : (R) Joe Patton – As he has since winning election in 2006 with 51.5% of the vote (he nabbed 57% in ’08), Patton will face a race this year, this time thanks to 26-year-old teacher Scott Seel (who needs to fill in some of the pages of his otherwise-nice website, www.seelforkansas.com) Topeka voters are notorious for dumping useless Republican incumbents (see: Ryun, Jim) and Patton has not been terribly impressive. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-59: 47R/24D/28U: District Map : (R) William Prescott – Freshman Prescott, a former Osage County Commissioner, is running for a second term after winning his first with 54.3% of the vote. In 2006, Democrat Jim Irey held the then-incumbent to just 51.2%, prompting his retirement. Irey lost the 2008 follow-up race to Prescott. This year, Prescott will face the weaker Blossom Barth, who appears to be doing little in the way of campaigning. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-60: 38.6R/29D/32U :  District Map :  (R) Don Hill –  Elected in 2002, the relatively popular and moderate (pro-choice and led the pro-school Republicans) Hill wasn’t even challenged by Democrats in 2008, despite the increasingly blue tint of his district. This cycle, Hill has a serious opponent in Mike Dorcey, who lost the County Clerk race in 2008, but at least has electoral experience. Additionally, Dorcey is Community Relations Director of the Emporia Unified School District, giving him education bonafides in a cycle where that’s a hot topic. Overall, Hill’s moderate profile should keep him safe. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-62: 53R/24D/22.6U : District Map : (D) Steve Lukert – A former Republican, Lukert lost a state Senate race in 2004, switched parties, and won his KS House seat in 2006 with 53% of the vote, and won re-election with 57%, despite the heavy Republican tilt of the district, making him Kansas’ answer to Chet Edwards. He will face Randy Garber, a Navy vet, heating/cooling specialist, and pastor of Trinity Church of the Brethren. Despite the partisan lean of the district, Garber seems a wee bit….hmm, how to say this in a nice Kansas way? Garber’s a few sandwiches short of a picnic. And that’s all I’m gonna say. Rating: Likely Democrat

KS-HR-65: 38R/33D/28U : District Map :  (R/Open) Incumbent Barbara “Barbie” Craft is retiring, leaving her Junction City seat open. Geary County Commissioner Larry Hicks is in the running for the Democrats, while Republicans had a Junction City Commissioner running, and passed him up for a guy named James Fawcett. With an open seat, a moderate, responsible already-elected official is exactly the sort of politician Kansans like to send to Topeka. Plus, popular Gov. Parkinson held a fundraiser for Hicks two weeks ago, so KS Dems are obviously pretty high on his chances. Even better, the Republican Craft showed up to that fundraiser and praised Hicks, although she’s technically supporting the Republican Fawcett. Link for that story. Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-67: 47R/24.6D/28U : District Map : (D) Tom Hawk is a former Manhattan (KS) school superintendent and is going for his fourth term, after winning his third with 56%. It’s a tough district but the adamantly pro-education Hawk fits in well here. His opponent is opthamologist Dr. Susan Mosier, who would be a strong candidate thanks to her civic involvement, if it weren’t for her right-wing flirtations. Still, Republicans are high on her chances and the district is pretty tough.  Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-69: 40R/25D/34U  : District Map :  (R/Open) The teabaggers strike! Elected in 1994, incumbent Deena Horst is a retired art teacher and frankly, she does seem like the nicest person ever, and I say that as someone disinclined to like Republicans–but she lost her primary to teabagging Salina City Commissioner Tom Arpke.  Meanwhile, Team Blue has an attractive young fellow named Gerrett Morris (at left), who, according to his campaign website is “serving as Chairman of both the Saline County Young Democrats and the Salina Tree Advisory Board.” Hear that, Arpke! Tree Advisory Board (this actually is important in central KS where there aren’t a lot of trees, btw). Who would you rather District 69 with now, eh Salina voters? Rating: Tossup

Horst Vs. Arpke – Salina Journal

KS-HR-71: 46.5R/23.5D/29U : District Map :  (R) Charles Roth survived a double teabagging in the Republican primary, and his moderate reputation will serve him well in the general election. In his two previous runs since his 2005 appointment, he scored 59.4% (2006) and 62.6% (2008). Still, Democrats have a credible opponent in Salina School Board member and Dean of Academic Affairs at Brown Mackie College Phil Black. Roth’s moderate reputation should be enough. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-72: 45R/27D/28U :  District Map :  (R) Amy Schumacher faces off against incumbent Mark Rhoades, who won in 2008 by just 40 votes (after a similarly-skimpy win to defeat an incumbent Democrat in 2006), among the closest margins in the state. She’ll be helped by a new local campaign office and the strong Goyle campaign. Schumacher is definitely a-runnin’ and getting good local press: Source  Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-75: 46R/26D/27.4U : District Map :  (R) John Grange is in the hunt for a fourth term after winning his previous ones with around 54-55% of the vote. He’ll face Glenda Reynolds, whose husband is the vice-chair of the Butler County Democrats. She’s a solid candidate, with good community links, a solid website (http://www.reynolds4house.com/), a smart platform (ending tax breaks for non-KS companies, citing specific examples) and a lovely family. Grange is certainly favored, but Reynolds will make it a race, thanks to both institutional support from local Dems and being named after the good witch from The Wizard of Oz. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-80: 47.5R/26.6D/25.5U :  District Map : (D) Vincent Wetta – Wetta, a retired railroad engineer, won in 2006 with 57% of the vote over incumbent Bill McCreary, went unchallenged in 2008, and faces the little-known Ellen Hathaway in 2010. Rating: Likely Democrat

Join me next week for the final installment of this series along with a final tally of seat projections and more insight into Kansas politics.

One of the things I like best about SSP is finding out about interesting downballot races that would otherwise escape my notice. So in that spirit, I’ve put together a massively comprehensive guide to the state races in Kansas in 2010.

Wherefore art thou, Sean Tevis, oh star of the 2008 KS State House races?

While Kansas isn’t exactly high on anyone’s radar for this election cycle, there are plenty of competitive races (KS-03 & KS-04, plus nearly all the statewide offices this year) throughout the state. Join me, won’t you, for a look at what’s happening downballot in the Kansas state Legislature?

But before we get into an analysis of the various districts in play this cycle, there are a few things to keep in mind…one is that this diary wasn’t meant to be published so soon. It was also way too long, so I was going to publish it in parts, but I hadn’t decided on what those parts were. Apparently, I’ll be doing it in thirds, since I just did seats 1-40, the competitive ones, at any rate.

In 2010, only Kansas House of Representatives seats are up, with the exception of …

STATE SENATE:

KS-StSen-07: Moderate state Sen. David Wysong resigned, leading Republicans to choose state Rep. Terrie Huntington as his replacement. With a fairly moderate profile, she must now fend off challenges from the left and right in the only Senate seat being contested this cycle (the full Senate, including this seat, is up in 2012). Republican David Harvey is coming at her from the right, but she survived (barely) with 54% in the primary. Democrat Wayne E. Hodges awaits in the general. Possessing a master’s in public administration, Hodges is an adjunct professor at Park University and a sometime writer/reporter. We could do a lot worse, although Hodges starts at a distinct disadvantage over a battle-tested moderate Republican. Hodges bio

In 2004, Wysong won with 56% of the vote, and was re-elected with 54% in 2008. So it’s not a totally unwinnable district. If Hodges can’t win it in 2010, I’m betting state Rep. Mike Slattery (KS-HR-24) might try to move up in 2012. Of course, even if Hodges wins, Republicans will still dominate the upper chamber 30-10. Rating: Likely Republican

With that little appetizer out of the way, let’s get to the main course of this feast of local political analysis…

Democratic nominee Stephene Moore wields the power of delicious baked goods in her quest for KS-03.

KANSAS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES – 125 seats

Current composition: 76 Republicans, 49 Democrats (or about 61%-39%)

HOW TO READ THE COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:

KS-HR-# <—this is the district’s number

43.5R/27D/28.6U   <—this is the voter affiliation breakdown, R is Republican, D is for Democrat, and U is unaffiliated voters. Statewide, as of June 2010, the state’s registration numbers were 43.5% Republican, 27.2% Democrat, and 28.6% Unaffiliated.  Out of the roughly 1.7 million registered voters, there are also about 10,000 registered Libertarians, along with 1,169 members of the Reform Party. Also, unless the tenth of a percent is a 4, 5 or 6, I rounded to the nearest full percentage point in most cases.

District Map    <—-this is the official map from the Legislature’s website KSLegislature.org.

MAIN SOURCES:

Candidate Guide + District PVIs from Capitol Strategies LLC [pdf]

Guide to every KS House seat’s past voting from OurCampaigns.com

Candidate Fundraising from Ethics.ks.gov

Before we start, I’d meant to put something in about how off-year elections are actually the better ones for KS Democrats. A smaller electorate is generally a more moderate and better-informed one in Kansas. Sure, the teabaggers may be out in force, but that’s nothing new in Kansas. And Democrats, as you’ll see, have a lot of competitive candidates up and down the ballot, not only Stephene Moore & Raj Goyle for Congress, not only the best statewide slate we’ve had in a long while (Holland, Kultala, Six, McKinney & Biggs), but even in many state legislative races, Democrats are now fielding pretty solid candidates who can compete and possibly win. So below, find the first chunk of contested districts, all the ones I’ve ranked as competitive that number between 1 & 40.

Among these, there are some that are either totally safe (thanks to PVI heavily favoring one party) or uncontested completely. In districts 1-40, those seats are:

Uncontested Democrats: 05, 08, 32, 33, 34, 37

Safe Dem:  01, 02, 03, 31, 35, 36

Uncontested or intraparty-only Republicans: 06, 07, 09, 11, 13 26, 27, 30

Safe Republican:  12, 21

Geographically, seats 1-40 are centered on the eastern edge of the state, hence the seemingly high quantity of competitive seats. (generally speaking, KS gets more conservative as you go West). Most of the competitive ones below are in suburban Johnson County, which has been going from rosy red to quite purple rather quickly. The exceptions in competitive seats in 1-40 are the rural, Fort Scott-based 4th, the 10th, which takes in the suburban/exurban/rural areas south of Lawrence, and the Fort Leavenworth-based 40th. The two Fort districts border Missouri, and Lawrence is just one county over from the state line (via Johnson or Wyandotte, aka-the Dot) from the state line.  

COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:

KS-HR-04: 46R/27.4D/26U : District Map : (D) Shirley Palmer (good name, good pic at left) defeated incumbent Lynne Oharah (a man, surprisingly) in 2006 in this Fort Scott-centric district with 51.3% of the vote and won again in 2008 with 53% in a rematch. This year, she’ll face a new opponent in Caryn Tyson, whose father-in-law was a local state Senator and a woman with deep local ties. Tyson’s website, at least, is a careful balance–conservative but not too conservative. She’ll be a tough opponent, but Palmer’s been a solid representative, has excellent education credentials and her local ties are just as strong.  Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-10: 37R/29D/33U : District Map : (D) Tony Brown –  Brown will face off against Terri Lois Gregory, who’s coming off a strong primary victory. Frankly, Gregory is a rather creepy lady staffer for state Rep. Mike Kiegerl (KS-HR-43) and a fairly hardcore conservative. Brown was elected in 2008 with just 49% of the vote (a Libertarian took 5% and the Republican got 45%). Interestingly, this is Dem gubernatorial nominee Tom Holland’s old legislative district, which I would expect to yield a big enough boost for Brown that he’ll pass the 50% mark this time, in addition to the sophomore swing and going up against a hardcore right-winger.  Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-14: 43R/25D/31U : District Map : (R) Incumbent Lance Kinzer faces off against Elliott Lahn, a city planner for nearby Merriam. Kinzer’s gotten around 60% in his previous races, but Lahn’s got a good website, raised some money, and has snagged a few endorsements. Kinzer doesn’t have quite the conservative stink of other members of the JoCo delegation, but he also hasn’t faced very many competitive opponents. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-15: 43R/24D/32U : District Map  : (R) Arlen Siegfreid – Archconservative Siegfreid, now Speaker Pro Tem (2nd in command of KS House Republicans), has essentially become too conservative for this district, which was once staunchly conservative. In 2002, Siegfried won the newly-formed seat with 60% of the vote, but it has blued rapidly, with Siegfried’s vote share declining steadily to a narrow 52-48% victory over Sean Tevis in 2008 (McCain got 60% here). If Sean Tevis were running here again, I’d rate it a Tossup, but I’m doubting the website-less and rather invisible Wright will do as well as Tevis. Look for Siegfried to use his influence to draw himself a redder seat after redistricting, or perhaps one in the state Senate. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-16: 46R/25D/28U : District Map  : (D) Gene Rardin – Elected in 2006 by a hair after the moderate Republican incumbent went down in the primary, Rardin has survived two very close calls with less than 51% of the vote. This cycle, Rardin again faces a very conservative opponent in teabagger Amanda Grosserode, which should allow him to squeak to another term, despite representing one of the most heavily Republican districts in the county.  Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-17: 46.5R/24D/28.5U : District Map  : (Open/R) Jill Quigley – The moderate Quigley faced a primary against teabagger Kelly Meigs as she tried to win her second full term after being appointed in 2007, but Meigs won 53-47 amid a decent turnout (for a primary). A moderate Republican can easily hold this seat–Quigley nabbed about 62% in her first try against modest opposition–but an anti-school teabagger would be considered a prime target. Waiting to swoop in and pick up the seat is Democrat Bryan Cox….now here’s where it gets interesting. Conservative blogs KansasProgress.com (intentional irony alert!) and KawandBorder.net are reporting that Cox is considering stepping aside and letting Quigley have his place on the ballot. She’d switch parties, of course, and run as a Democrat. Also, the $16k left in her campaign account would become useable again, an upgrade on Cox’s $200 haul. Why would Cox step aside? Well, he might if he’s the Bryan Cox that’s a high-level Democratic Party operative who’s now running Lisa Johnston’s Senate campaign and was recently (still?) the Riley County Field Coordinator. Once Cox bails, the 8 local precinct committee(wo)men choose a replacement–perhaps now-Democrat Jill Quigley? Stay tuned folks, because if Quigley switches sides, this will instantly become one of the hottest races around and a great pickup opportunity.

Rating: Tossup, for the sheer insanity of it all…. it’s Lean D with Quigley as a D, Lean or Likely Republican if it’s Meigs Vs. Cox

KS-HR-18: 44.6R/27D/27.8U : District Map : (D) Cindy Neighbor – Interesting career. First elected in 2002 to this seat as a moderate Republican, she lost the Republican primary in 2004, then returned to win the seat as a Democrat in 2006 with less than 50% of the vote, and got re-elected in 2008 with 52.5% of the vote against Republican John Rubin, an Army JAG officer who is back again in 2010. Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-19: 43.6R/25.3D/30.5U : District Map : (D) Dolores Furtado – A former Johnson County Commissioner, she won this seat in 2008 with 51% of the vote, and faces a strong challenge from Jim Denning, the CEO of Discover Vision Centers, who won his primary with a convincing 77%. But Furtado’s a tough old bird and she’s not going down without a fight. Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-20: 49R/24D/27U : District Map : (Open/R/Kevin Yoder) – The district where I was raised for 15 years. A swingier-than-it-looks surburban Overland Park seat whose Republicans are heavily moderate, being vacated by former moderate Kevin Yoder. Yoder protege Rob Bruchman won a stunning 70% victory in the primary against Stephanie Sawyer Clayton, who, despite Yoder’s supposed moderate reputation, ran to Bruchman’s left, favoring opening up liquor sales, keeping abortion legal, and not hating immigrants. With Bruchman squarely in the conservative camp, Dems do have a chance, especially because the candidate for the Ds is Rob McKnight, apparently (I couldn’t confirm this) a former GOP consultant turned Democrat and longtime local resident. He’s been a good fundraiser (including some notable local moderate Republican names) and scoring good endorsements, as well. McKnight is actively campaigning and has a website that, smartly, appeals to a sense of neighborliness against the carpetbagging Bruchman: Kansas20.org. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-22: 34.6R/32D/32.5U : District Map : (D) Lisa Benlon –   Another former Republican state representative, Benlon returned to politics in 2008 as a Democrat, winning 53% to succeed Democrat Sue Storm, who rose to a seat on the state Board of Education. Benlon did draw a fairly strong opponent in Greg Smith, the father of the late Kelsey Smith. Still, the district’s blue tint, and Smith’s super-conservative profile, should be enough to save Benlon. Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-23: 33.5R/32.2D/33.5U : District Map : (D) Milack Talia – After running twice before (once for a different state rep seat, the 29th), Talia captured 56% of the vote in his 2008 race. Helpfully for his electoral chances, he’ll defend the seat against “Conservative Constitutionalist”/teabagger Michael Foltz. Rating: Likely Democrat

KS-HR-24: 36R/32D/31.5U : District Map : (D) Mike Slattery – The scion of the apparent Slattery Democratic dynasty-in-the-making, Slattery scored a narrow Democratic primary victory in 2008 for one of the most Dem-leaning seats in the county, then went on to win the general fairly handily. Since only Talia’s and Benlon’s districts are more Democratic in Johnson County, Slattery stands a good chance of being re-elected. Rating: Likely Democrat

KS-HR-25: 45.5R/27D/26.6U : District Map : (R) Open/Barbara Bollier – Appointed to fill Terrie Huntington’s seat by local Republicans, this will be retired anathesiologist Barbara Bollier’s first race. Huntington got 57% in 2002 to win the seat, 56.5% in 2004, just 54.5% in 2006, and rebounded to 61% against a weak opponent in 2008. Bollier will face off against Shana Althouse, who is actively campaigning, quotes Gov. Sebelius, and is all about education–a good profile for this district.  Her website is good, too: www.shanaalthouse.com   Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-28: 57R/18D/24.5U : District Map : (R) Pat Colloton, generally identified as a moderate, is used to cruising to re-election, having no opponents in ’04 and ’06 and taking 75% against a token opponent in 2008. She’ll face the somewhat stronger Elise Chapline in 2010, who has self-funded $7k thus far, but I doubt Colloton’s sweating it much in her dark red seat. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-29: 48.6R/21D/29.5U : District Map : (R) Sheryl Spalding – Two-term incumbent Spalding survived a right-flank primary challenge by 29 votes from the teabaggy Richard Downing and will face Democrat Doug Dowell (good name) in the general. Having survived her primary, the moderate Spalding will probably survive with solid numbers.  Rating: Likely Republican

The shadow of Siegfreid looms large across Olathe.

KS-HR-38: 45R/23.4D/31U : District Map : (R) Anthony Brown was elected in 2004 after wining the Republican primary (no Democrat filed that year). In 2006, he took 56% of the vote and in ’08 nabbed 57%. Brown is now fully identified with the conservative faction in the legislature, and faces off against JCCC professor and psychologist Roberta Eveslage, This fast-growing district contains the northwesternmost edges of Johnson County along with Eudora & the fringes of Lawrence in Douglas County. While Brown is from conservative Eudora, Eveslage is from moderate Lenexa. The battleground is booming DeSoto, where well-to-do parents are concerned about school funding battles because they need to expand their schools pretty rapidly to handle the population influx. Eveslage’s laser-like focus on the issue is smart, her website is decent (http://robertaforkansas.com/) and she’s actively campaigning. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-39: 42R/26D/31.4U : District Map : (R) Owen Donohoe – Elected in 2006, Donohoe has proven to be a staunch conservative, not a great fit for this moderate district, as evinced by his weak victories, 52.3% in ’06 and 51.3% in ’08. Donohoe’s up against retired school principal Joe Novak, who ran in ’08 and nearly won. Now that he’s so clearly identified with conservatives, Donohoe is going to bleed moderate Republicans, probably enough to let Novak eke out a victory this time around. He’s also BFFs with Kansas’ worst legislator, Connie O’Brien, so he obviously sucks.  Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-40: 32R/35D/31.6U : District Map : (D) Melanie Meier – Our candidate here is awesome and profile-wise, fits her Fort Leavenworth-based district like a glove. Raised in a military family that eventually settled in Leavenworth, Melanie Meier was elected in 2008 (with 56%) but resigned her post to serve in Iraq. When she returned, KS Dems reappointed her to the seat she’d won. Active in her community, her husband’s also in the military, and she’s a Catholic, so it’s tough to imagine a better candidate for this district. She’d be an excellent candidate for higher office, too, perhaps the state Senate or even Congress against Lynn Jenkins. Rating: Likely Democrat

Next up, seats 40-80, including central and eastern Kansas (basically everything from Lawrence to Salina along I-70), some suburban Wichita seats, still a few more Johnson County seats, plus the Chet Edwards(es) of Kansas. Click here to read about the next 40 seats.

Photo credit for potentially the best photo ever of Arlen Siegfreid: the Olathe Republican Party.

When I first heard that Stephene Moore was running to succeed her husband in Congress, I was really disappointed that we’d put up what I saw as a “Hail Mary” type of candidate in a district where it didn’t have to be that way. As someone born and raised in KS-03, it was extra disappointing.

The reaction from friends and family in the area was similar–what the heck do the Moores think they’re doing? There were tons of questions–mostly along the lines of why Dennis would “retire from politics” and yet have his wife run? And of course, the wingnuts went crazy with a weird attack that the Moores wanted a second congressional pension and that was why Stephene would subject herself (and her husband) to continued political fire.

But might Stephene Moore turn out to be just the type of candidate we need this cycle to hold the seat? The conclusion I came to might just surprise you…

Quick note on her name: Stephene is pronounced just like “Stephanie.” But before we get into the reasons why Stephene might just turn out to be a better candidate than Dennis, first, let’s get to better know the district….

KS-03 contains part of Douglas County & all of Wyandotte Co. (WyCo, though locals now often call it “The Dot”), which are, by far, the two most liberal counties in the state. Douglas has the young, progressive college town of Lawrence while WyCo, despite recent suburban-style growth around the new-ish NASCAR speedway, is poor majority-minority urban core neighborhoods for the most part. These counties provide any Democrat with a big chunk of votes, as they often vote up to 75-25% in favor of Team Blue, depending on the race. Unfortunately, they only make up roughly 20% of the vote (or less, depending on turnout).

The third and final county in KS-03 is suburban Johnson County (JoCo). That’s where I grew up and where my parents and a good chunk of my family still lives–and it’s where elections are decided for KS-03. It’s also the richest and most populous county in the state…it’s kinda like “The OC” of the Kansas City metro area. And like The OC, it’s growing increasingly diverse and moving steadily toward Democrats, albeit from a heavily Republican base.

So in order to win KS-03, a Democrat must at least run pretty darn close to the Republican in JoCo, so that votes from WyCo & Douglas will put the Dem over the top.

The JoCo voters that Moore was able to attract–moderate Republicans and right-leaning indies–tend to be upper-middle-class economic moderates (think Chamber of Commerce/country club types who supposedly hate taxes but have frequently voted to raise them if it means they get services they want, like good schools…more on this later) with mildly progressive social views (pro-choice, anti-creationism, pro-stem cell research, fairly pro-gay) that are likely a consequence of high education levels as anything else.

My parents, for example, are college-educated white-collar professionals who are socially liberal (having a gay son helps) and economically moderate. Mom’s a Democrat, Dad’s a somewhat more conservative indie (again, statistically typical) and since 1998, they’ve happily voted and displayed yard signs for Dennis Moore, while simultaneously being represented by (and seeming happy with) “moderate” Republican state Rep. Kevin Yoder, who’s running in the KS-03 Republican primary against a host of ultraconservatives, and teabaggers.

But up until this weekend when we chatted, my folks were uncharacteristically angry over Stephene Moore as the Democratic standard-bearer, mostly from a nepotism POV. However, I think I convinced them (and my previously-doubty self) that she could be a really good candidate who deserves support…and has some unique attributes beyond her name that make her particularly qualified to win this cycle.

So let’s get the nepotism charge out of the way…I pointed out that it’s really not nepotism if voters get to choose every step of the way–it’s not like Moore resigned mid-term and the Democratic governor appointed Stephene. No, Moore announced his retirement early and KS Dems spent months casting about unsuccessfully for a candidate. When they couldn’t find one with a chance in hell of winning, good ole Dennis once again rode to the rescue by encouraging his wife to run. The bottom line is that if KS-03 voters so choose, they won’t be represented by Stephene Moore for even a day.

Of course, to even have a chance, she has to run a heckuva campaign (as she presumably watched Dennis do every two years). In terms of her campaign so far, I’ve been pleasantly surprised…in announcing, she came right out and said that she wasn’t entitled to the seat and then in the same breath stressed her Johnson County roots and qualifications for the office.

But the biggest surprise may be that, when I learned more about Ms. Moore and started to think about it, she actually seems rather uniquely qualified to contest the seat this year… perhaps even more than her husband, and current Congressman, Dennis (though I still believe he would’ve won, since he’s done it before in even tougher circumstances).

But I do think KS-03 voters might just choose her to represent them in the end. Here’s why…

I think that in KS-03 in 2010, the big issues are likely to be health care, abortion (that’s a perennial in KS), gov’t spending, education and the stupid economy. On every single one, Stephene is, rather surprisingly, seemingly better equipped (at least in theory) to defend the positions that she and Dennis mostly share on these issues.

Health care: Stephene’s a longtime nurse, while none of her potential opponents has worked in health care (nor has Dennis for that matter) giving her a distinct personal knowledge advantage. A Republican backing full repeal (like all the conservatives) or a moderate whose only healthcare idea is tort reform (Yoder) will compare unfavorably.

Abortion: As a woman and more importantly, as a high-risk obstetrics nurse, I’m sure she has more experience and insights on this issue and why abortions need to remain legal than any opponent, period. And it would take a ballsy (and stupid) Republican to call a woman who’s delivered 1000 Kansan babies a “baby-killer.” Attention, Emily’s List, you’re needed in KS-03.

Gov’t Spending: She can glom onto Dennis’ hard-earned fiscal conservative reputation and promise the same, while repudiating his vote for the unpopular bank bailout. Dennis would’ve had to defend that one.

Education: Admittedly, education is not usually a federal issue/one that affects a congressional race, but there are a few other factors in play this cycle….

#1 – State budgets have been slashed, cutting aid to JoCo’s prized schools, which has made a lot of locals nervous. Even my empty-nester parents are worried because great local schools buoy the value of their home.  

#2 – The latest budget proposal that had even more cuts was created by state Rep. Yoder, the moderate Republican front-runner (and chair of the Appropriations Cmte). This will almost certainly come back to haunt him.  

#3 – A mom and grandma (those are all her grandkids in the first pic), Stephene’s done a lot of work with local schools on healthy eating and skin cancer prevention and thus can credibly portray herself as a big supporter of local schools. And giving her room to bash the hell out of Yoder for trying to destroy them. Plus, she bakes. It’s tough to attack an apple pie mom who bakes.

Economy: President Obama’s stimulus will also likely be a vote that local Republicans will use to try and shred Moore’s reputation for fiscal responsibility. Stephene will be able to eschew responsibility for specific items she might be attacked with, while defending the idea (fortunately, the voters she has to attract understand Keynesian economics).

There are a few other factors that might have an effect….

The 2010 Cycle: It’s an anti-incumbent year, and while Stephene doesn’t exactly scream anti-incumbent, she’s still less of an incumbent than Dennis. And the Republican front-runners are all current or very recent elected officeholders.

The Teabagger Effect: Here’s the thing about Kansas: Republicans have been fighting the conservative vs. moderate battle for ages. It’s how Dennis first got elected, actually. With teabaggers riled up, the primary could turn out to be more divisive than expected, despite the exit of conservative favorite Nick Jordan.

So…do you think Stephene Moore can cook up a win?

With the withdrawal of barely-candidate pharmabiz guy, Kansas Democrats are in need of a gubernatorial candidate.

At this point, Some Dude would be a step up. But I think Kansas Democrats can do better.

We can get someone credible. Yes we can.

Gov. Mark Parkinson– Why won’t he run and save us from Brownback? He is the A List. He just issued this statement, which is actually his softest yet on the re-election question, which he’d heretofore always strenuously denied:

Asked whether he would reconsider running for the office, Parkinson said in a statement: “The 2010 elections are still very far away. In the meantime, I am focused on responsibly balancing the budget and getting Kansans back to work.”

So who knows?

State Sen. Anthony Hensley– Competent state senator, senate minority leader, definitely has solid enough experience and likely the best of the rest on paper, at least. He already acts as a strong opposition leader, putting out a statement against Brownback’s preemptive attacks on Wiggans, so he won’t roll over. Could raise decent money. From Topeka, which is among the swingiest and better-populated places in Kansas.

Con: Might be better in the State Senate? Or prefer it? Has lots of votes Brownback can attack.

Joshua Svaty – State Agriculture Secretary – Pro:experienced former State Representative from red Ellsworth recently appointed to his current position. Young, attractive fifth-generation farmer with solid NRA ratings. And his Dad got his seat when he left it and now his Dad is all into it! How cute is that! NRA-approved, rural-friendly moderate male will also have big potential crossover appeal.

Con: Just got appointed, might be prohibited from campaigning in office. Might be better to let him gain experience and not encourage him to sacrifice his career on in a race where he’d be the David to Goliath.

Good bio: http://www.kansasfreepress.com…

Alan Jilka – former Salina Mayor– Pro: Former Salina Mayor, was going to be the “sacrificial lamb candidate/maybe they’ll nominate an actual Nazi and I can win candidate” for the open seat in KS-01. He could switch over without any great loss.

Con: No one knows who he is, if he can run the state, or if he can raise money to match Brownback’s millions. Salina only has 42,000-ish people.

Dan Hesse – CEO of Sprint – Pro: Wealthy businessman, but not a total a-hole by most accounts. According to a survey by Glassdoor, he’s by far the most popular telecom CEO according to his employees, which helps since there are literally thousands in this district. l don’t know if he’s even a Democrat…but if he’s unaffiliated, and switched to the Democrats to run for Governor, I totally think he could win a primary. KS Dems are a pretty pragmatic bunch.

Con: I don’t know if he lives in KS, but Sprint’s headquartered there. Don’t know if he’s a Democrat or would even consider running.

Official Sprint bio: http://www2.sprint.com/mr/ex_d…

Rolf Potts – Travel Writer – I told ya, crazy. Pro: From Salina, lots of family there, maintains family farm there. Founded Vagablogging and is a successful small businessman. Kinda almost famous.

Con: Probably would rather be a travel writer and too footloose and worldly. Never held office.

Bio: http://www.rolfpotts.com/bio

Burdett Loomis – Univ. of KS Professor of Political Science – Pro: Would be seen as knowledgeable about politics while also being very non-partisan. Has some experience as “Director of Administrative Communications, Governor Kathleen Sebelius, 2005.” The KU connection would drive up his vote share in Douglas & Johnson Counties.

Con: An academic, no business experience, no elected experience. Kansas State connection would drive down his numbers in Manhattan.

KU Bio: http://www2.ku.edu/~kups/peopl…

Chris Steineger – State Senator – Okay, yes, he’s an elected official and not supposed to go in this section. But what’s his deal? He seemed to look at a run then decide against it. Nice website but hasn’t been updated recently.

Pro: Experienced elected official and would not have to give up his seat to run. Wonky. Seems fairly competent.

Con: Would be seen a liberal. And urban. All that and his reduce-the-state-to-13-counties plan would be stir up rural fear. Also majorly on the outs with the state party and recently told KC Star: “The party insiders just can’t get their stuff together,” Steineger said. “I lay it on them. They’re dysfunctional. I think it’s directly their fault that we’re in this situation.” Not helpful.

Interesting profile: http://cjonline.com/opinion/20…

I’m sure we can throw out some more names, no? There’s 50-ish Democrats who are State Reps, what about any of them?  

What about Jill Docking? Rematches are always fun, right? I probably forgot someone obvious, too so help me out….  

And now it’s time to throw out some unexpected names. Kansas SSPers, please brainstorm with me. Let’s get crazy.

In Kansas, redistricting is controlled by the state legislature, with the Governor having veto power. By far the most likely political scenario is that in 2010,  Republicans will have a huge advantage in the state Senate (currently 31-9) and a big one in the state House (currently 76-49) and likely a new Governor in conservative Republican Sam Brownback (ugh) unless Democrats find a miracle candidate to take him on.

But one-party control has its downsides: namely, a long-running split between the party’s hardcore conservatives and its moderates, who regularly side with Democrats to either make mischief or enact good policy, depending on your point of view. It plays out in the legislature regularly, and in the congressional seats occasionally.

The most recent example is the 2nd District’s Nancy Boyda, a Democrat who knocked out the very conservative Jim Ryun in 2006, 51-47. “Moderate” Lynn Jenkins edged out Ryun in the 2008 Republican primaries and was able to bring enough Republicans back into the fold to defeat Boyda 51-46.

Here’s the thing: If (conservative) Brownback is elected Governor in 2010, the last thing he’ll want to do in 2011-2012 is a pick a fight with legislators over redistricting.  

A Gov. Brownback (ugh) will have his hands full pushing through a conservative agenda over the feisty moderates (whose main base, suburban Johnson County, is going to get quite a few more seats regardless). Moderate Republicans and Democrats share a lot of redistricting aims–they want competitive seats, basically. Make seats too heavily Republican and conservatives will take over, too heavily Democratic…well, that’s not really a possibility in Kansas.

Overall, Kansans do tend to be fairly civic-minded about redistricting and don’t do obvious gerrymanders, using fairly balanced “select committees” of legislators to do the grunt work. Finally, legislators also put maintaining the core of existing districts into the redistricting guidelines for last time, so I’d bet that’s likely to show up again.

The Big First – District One – map color: blue [irony alert!] – The person in this seat basically has a space waiting for them on the Agriculture Committee. And it will be the person who wins the Republican primary for this open seat in 2010. This district is about as red and rural as it gets–and like many rural areas, it’s bleeding population.  

Adds: bits of Geary & Nemaha, all of Riley  

Loses: Pratt, Barber, Waubaunsee, the rest of Greenwood

Old PVI: R+23

New PVI: R+22

District Two – Lynn Jenkins (R) – map color: green – At PVI+9, it’s already the 2nd most Dem district (tells you something about KS right there), but there’s nowhere else to put the rest of liberal Lawrence now that the 3rd district has grown too populous for it. Based on Moore’s 2008 numbers here, that’s a net of about 13,000 votes in the D column flooding the district (with 27000 votes total and a 71-24 split). Jenkins beat Boyda by 13,500 votes in 2008. D’oh.

The only help Republicans can offer is tinkering around the edges–taking out Topeka would be the only way to really affect the composition and that’s out of the question from several standpoints. It’s just unfortunate for the Great White Dope that her district completely surrounds the fastest-growing and bluest one in the state. That said, moderate Republicans should (at least in theory) love this district. They might still be able to edge out an incumbent Democrat (barely), but a conservative could be defeated in a general election.

Adds: the rest of Douglas County (net 13000 D), Wabaunsee (net 1300 R), Montgomery (net 5000 R)

Loses: Riley (net 1000 R), Coffey (net 1400 R), Woodson (net 500 R), Wilson (net 1300 R)

Old PVI: R+9

New PVI: R+5

District Three – Dennis Moore (D) – map color: purple – Even if Republicans wanted to get rid of the delegation’s sole Democrat, it would be nearly impossible. To do it, you’d have to move out both Douglas & Wyandotte counties and then tack on a dozen or so rural ones. Not really a “community of interests” between the state’s richest, most populous suburban county and slew of relatively poor rural counties.

So instead, the district drops the rest of Douglas and picks up a few sparsely-populated (for now) bits of Miami County. It’s enough to shift the PVI needle a few clicks to the right, but not enough to dislodge Moore, who won Johnson County 51-45 and Wyandotte 75-21. Still, a moderate Republican could definitely pick up this seat if the 63-year-old Moore retires. Then again, so could a Democrat.

Old PVI: R+3

New PVI: R+5

District Four – map color: red – Centered on the slow-growing Wichita metro area, the Fightin’ Fourth has to add a few rural counties and becomes a bit redder. Even if state Rep. Raj Goyle can pull off an upset in 2010 in the open seat race here, he’ll be even harder-pressed to win here after redistricting.

Adds: Coffey, Woodson, Wilson, Pratt, Barber

Loses: Montgomery

Old PVI: R+14

New PVI: R+15

Final score: Two seats that a moderate Republican or Democrat could possibly win, and two seats they almost certainly couldn’t.  

The most likely redistricting scenario for 2010 is one in which Democrats control the House, Senate and Governor’s office in Colorado. The Governor’s office is the only one where there seems like there might be a problem. Mostly because Bill Ritter is no lock for re-election.

But the Democrats are in pretty solid (though not impregnable) control of the legislative branch at this point. They’re up 38-27 in the CO House and up 21-14 in the Senate. Thanks to partisan battlin’, redistricting last time around was, as the kids say, a hot mess.

Presumably, this time should be smoother and as long as the Democrats don’t do any overly-obvious gerrymandering that risks a political backlash, they’ll be fine. I would think that no hugely obvious changes in the composition of the delegation, currently 5-2 in favor of Dems, would do the trick on that front, even if they subtly manipulate the districts to their advantage. A gentle gerrymander, if you will….follow along for that!

CD-1 Diana DeGette (D) – Dark Blue

Her district shifts very slightly around the periphery, but largely remains the same–Denver-centric and safely Democratic, as one would expect for the dean of the delegation. For the record, Colorado has quite a young delegation…DeGette was elected in 1996, but John Salazar, the next most experienced, was only elected in 2004.

CD-2 Jared Polis (D) – Green

His district loses its last bits of Weld County and its liberal ski towns as it shifts south and grabs Golden, Wheat Ridge and the rest of Arvada. It’s slightly more conservative, perhaps, but not by too much–its liberal Boulder center pushes left on the suburban areas, which aren’t exactly the most conservative parts of the Denver suburbs anyway. The moderately liberal Polis should be fine, and it’s a safely Democratic seat regardless.

CD-3 John Salazar (D) – purple

Adds: Eagle, Summit, Clear Creek, Lake, Chafee

Loses: Jackson, Routt, Moffat, Rio Blanco, Garfield, Custer, Otero, a bit of Mesa County

How to shore up a district that’s basically totally rural without dipping into the votes of the major cities on the Front Range? Two words: ski towns. The new district drops some ranching counties on the periphery while adding overwhelmingly liberal ski-centric counties.

DATA FREAKOUT ALERT!

3rd District adds these counties:

Pitkin: 74-25 Obama (15,000)

Summit: 66-33 Obama (23,500)

Lake: 62-36 Obama (8,000)

Eagle: 61-38 Obama (42,500)

Gilpin: 59-38 Obama  (5,150)

Clear Creek: 58-40 Obama (10,000)

Chaffee: tie  (16,000)

3rd District loses these counties:

Moffat 70-27 McCain (13,000)

Rio Blanco 77-21 McCain (6,000)

Jackson 68-30 McCain (1,500)

Custer 63-35 McCain (3,500)

Otero 55-44 McCain (20,000)

Garfield tie (44,000)

It’s over 100,000 people that will be magically transformed from rather Republican voters into heavily Democratic ones in this district. That should be enough to swing the PVI a good 5 points toward the blue, no? Still not hugely Democratic, but significantly more so.

CD-4 Betsy Markey (D) – Red

Adds: Grand, Jackson, Routt, Moffat, Rio Blanco, Garfield, the rest of Weld County, and a bit more of Boulder County.

Loses: Everything east of Weld County (all of eastern CO, basically)

Markey smashed Marilyn Musgrave by racking up votes in Larimer and Weld counties which overwhelmed the heavily-Republican rural vote (which was about 10%-ish of the district). It’s the same principle in her new district, but with fewer to overwhelm. Plus, the addition of a few more competitive suburban Denver & Boulder voters should anchor it even more firmly. Finally, one of her rural counties is Routt County (Steamboat Springs–awesome ski town!), which went 63-36 for Obama and would be one of her most populous rural counties. So her new district is still swing-ish, but should be somewhat safer.

CD-5 Doug Lamborn (R) – Yellow

Adds Custer, Crowley, Otero counties

Loses Chaffee, Lake and Park

Doug will be fine with this–trading three centrist counties for three conservative ones, plus keeping his Colorado Springs base? What’s not to like for him…and Republicans?

CD-6 Mike Coffman (R) – Turquoise

Gains: Some more of Jefferson County, most of rural eastern Colorado that was formerly Markey’s

Loses: most of Arapahoe

Assuming Mike can survive primary challenges, he should be fine in this safely Republican seat. His seat will change a lot in 2012 under this map, but Republicans should be fans of its new configuration, which makes it well-nigh impossible for Democrats to overcome their registration advantages.

CD-7 Ed Perlmutter (D) – Gray

It’s a similar district in terms of demographics, but it shifts east. Perlmutter should be fine here, and picks up all the remaining fast-growing suburban areas east of Denver. Now about two-thirds white (with 6% Af-Am., 3% Asian, 18% Latin), it’s the second most diverse district after the central-Denver-centric 1st.

—-

There you have it. Three fairly liberal Dem seats (1, 2, 7), two fairly Dem seats (3, 4) districts and two safely Republican ones (5, 6). A gentle gerrymander, if you will.

Johnny Longtorso’s map has similar ideas to this one, and for the record I think he’s an ace redistricter, but I think mine fixes a crucial problem–shoring up Salazar’s district so that a less conservative Democrat could win it. He makes Markey safer than I do, though. So if you want more Colorado redistricting 2010 action, check it out:

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Okay, so as my first diary, I’m sure this is overly long, but I wanted to add a lot of data and analysis as I could because I am relentlessly geeky.

So read on, if you dare…

Shout-out: Dave’s Redistricting App.

Missouri Congressional districts Post-2010 Census

With Missouri most likely dropping a seat and with the redistricting authority evenly split between the Democratic Governor and Republican Legislature, incumbency protection and relatively even numbers of safe and swing districts should be considered priorities. Plus, with the political battles likely to be intense enough to be settled by an independent-ish panel, I figured that drawing geographically-sensical boundaries would also be important.

Therefore, I tried to keep each county in the same district (which I did successfully, barring the expected biggies–Kansas City’s Jackson and St. Louis city and county). This was done as a proxy for the “communities of interest” standard that seems to crop up when redistricting time rolls around, but I ain’t a lawyer and don’t know about no redistrictin’.  

An added bonus of this map is that each area is contiguous and geographically-sensible. Finally, in terms of population, each of the 8 districts clocks in around 739,000 using the awesome Dave App’s “Use New Pop Est” feature. The biggest variance is less than 5,000 + or – and I figure some changes from the estimate are to be expected, so some tussling around the edges should be expected. The counties of Gasconade, Crawford, Phelps, Dent, Iron, St. Francois, Montgomery and St. Clair could all be shifted between at least 3 Congressional districts to equalize populations and still be a part of pretty sensible, contiguous districts. So what I’m trying for is a good working template for starting negotiations.

Relevant recent races:

Governor – 2008 — Democrat Jay Nixon vs. Republican Kenny Hulshof 58.4-39.5

Longtime Attorney General Jay Nixon stomped the lackluster Hulshof (after Sarah Steelman weakened him severely in the primary). I use this as a sort of shorthand for what a reasonably strong Democrat could potentially do. (although some Congressmen like Ike Skelton defy the odds even further once they’re entrenched incumbents). Basically, a solid, local but new-to-a-seat Democrat could outpoll Nixon by a few points, perhaps, but not much more.

President – 2008 — Democrat Barack Obama vs. Republican John McCain 50-50

Missouri’s bellweather status ended when McCain took a 4,000 vote victory over Obama out of almost 3 million ballots cast (ftr, national average was 53-47-ish). It’s an interesting shorthand for outsiders, but its variance from the Nixon numbers is an important insight into the actual voters of a county.

With that, here we go….

St. Louis Close-Up

———–

Blue-District 1: Rep. Clay, D

Residence: St. Louis

Old Cook PVI: D+27

Gains: much of the city of St. Charles, plus that county’s eastern reaches

Loses: fairly small parts of St. Louis county & St. Louis proper

Keeps: Half of St. Louis proper, northeast chunk of St. Louis county

Analysis: As drawn, the massively-Dem PVI will shrink, but only modestly, probably to around D+16 or so. I would expect neighborhood tweaks because STL is the most densely-populated part of the state. Instead of black-majority, this district will be almost evenly matched, about 51% white to 42% black according to the app, but I’m going out on a limb and saying that shifts in population (ie-the inner suburbs getting more racially-mixed) will make this really, really close by the time the Census is held.

Effectively, St. Charles may tip the racial balance, but likely not the political one. Clay, one of MO’s two African-American Congressmen, should definitely be safe in this district, whatever its racial makeup. If the Voting Rights Act requires a black district, it should be easy enough to shift a few precincts on the margins (ie-losing parts of St. Charles, adding parts of STL) to bump it up to 50% black.

———————-

Green-District 2: Todd Akin, R

Old PVI: R+9

Residence: Town & Country

Gains: Montgomery County (pop. 12,000), Warren Co. (30,000), Franklin (100,000), Crawford (23,000), Washington (23,000), Iron (10,000), southwestern St. Charles county

Loses: Lincoln county (pop. 51,500), eastern St. Charles county

Keeps: Most of St. Charles county (though not St. Charles itself) and southwest St. Louis county

Franklin:   Obama-McCain 43-55, Nixon-Hulshof 51-47

Warren: Obama-McCain 43-56, Nixon-Hulshof 49-49

Washington:  Obama-McCain tie (5-vote margin), Nixon vs. Hulshof 67-31

Crawford: Obama-McCain 40-60, Nixon-Hulshof 52-46

Iron: Nixon-Hulshof 64-33, Obama-McCain 50-47

Analysis: Akin keeps most of his base in the western and southern sections of St. Louis county, but he loses part of St. Charles and picks up a set of rural-ish counties in return. Those rural-ish counties aren’t quite as Republican-friendly as he’d like–Obama won Washington & Iron, and stayed competitive in the rest, while Dem Gov. Nixon did very well in all of them.

The rural counties provide about 200,000 residents, while suburbanites (read: most of Akin’s base) make up the rest of this district. Akin is weakened, but only slightly. This should count as a “safe Republican” seat, especially because most of the St. Charles areas I removed are the swingiest parts of the county.

————

Purple-District 3: Russ Carnahan, D

Residence: St. Louis

Old PVI: D+7

Gains: A few more bits of St. Louis, plus St. Francois & Perry counties

–St. Francois county, pop. 63,000

Nixon-Hulshof 64-35

McCain-Obama won 51.5-47

–Perry county, pop. 18,800

Hulshof-Nixon 52-46

McCain-Obama 64-35

Loses: Not too much–a few St. Louis county and city neighborhoods where borders were tweaked.

Keeps: The aforementioned, Ste. Genevieve, Jefferson, southeastern bits of St. Louis county, roughly half of St. Louis proper

Analysis: The bits of urban St. Louis added to this district keep it from leaning too far right, and St. Francois is actually fairly moderate–Jay Nixon outperformed his statewide average here. Conservative Perry County is too small to have much effect. Carnahan should be able to hold this district.  

————-

Red-District 4: Ike Skelton, D

Residence: Lexington (Lafayette County)

Old PVI: R+14 (Obama 38-McCain 61)

Gains: Howard, Cooper, Boone, Callaway, Osage, Maries, Phelps, Gasconade, plus the south & eastern suburbs of Jackson County (Lee’s Summit, Blue Springs, Grain Valley, Lone Jack)

Loses: Barton, Vernon, Dade, Cedar, part of Polk, Dallas, Webster, Laclede, Pulaski, Camden, Ray

Keeps: Lafayette, Johnson, Henry, Pettis, Saline, Morgan, Moniteau, Cole

Analysis: This district sees some big changes to make it the probably the most swing-tastic of the new map. While Skelton can easily hold the old MO-4, it’s unlikely another Democrat could. The new MO-4 changes that to an extent, refocusing the district on the mid-section of Missouri, linking the Kansas City suburbs to Columbia and Jefferson City. In terms of community interests, it could be the “River District”, as it roughly follows the outline of the Missouri River through the middle of Missouri. But notice what else it is–an education/govt/services district. Behold….

Boone County (155,000): O-Mc 55-43, Nix-Hul 55-43  –>Columbia (MU, 30,000 students)

Cole (70,000): O-Mc 36-63, Nix-Hul 49-50  —> Jeff City (state capitol)

Johnson (50,000): O-Mc 43-55, Nix-Hul 54-43   —> Warrensburg (UCM, formerly CMSU, 10,000 students)

Phelps (43,000): O-Mc 38-60, Nix-Hul 53-44  —> Rolla (6500 students)

Pettis (40,000): O-Mc 38-60.5, Nix-Hul 55-43   —> Sedalia, state fair/services

Callaway (40,000): O-Mc 40-59, Nix-Hul 49-50 —> Fulton? Jeff City suburbs

Saline (24,000): O-Mc 48-50, Nix-Hul 57-33  —> Marshall, Missouri Valley College, 1500-ish students

Morgan (21,000): Nix-Hul 50-48

Cooper (17,000): Nix-Hul 46-52

Gasconade (15,000)

Moniteau (15,000)

Howard (10,000)

Maries (9,000)

——-

Yellow-District 5: Emanuel Cleaver

Residence: Kansas City

Old PVI: D+10

Gains: most of Cass county, all of Bates

Loses: Modest bits of southeastern suburbs of KC, like Lee’s Summit

Keeps: Most of Jackson County (Kansas City)

Analysis: Lost suburban bits compensated by swaps from northern suburbs, and the overwhelming urban tilt cancels the Cass/Bates suburban/rural tinge–no huge changes here and geographically it’s pretty similar, with mostly changes at the margins. Remains an urban district, perhaps now a smidge more conservative for a left-ish Dem like Cleaver, the former mayor of Kansas City, but still a pretty safe Dem seat.

Population centers: urban Kansas City, which went for Obama 78-21, is the majority of this district.

Cass County: Mc-O 60-40, Nix-Hul 52-46

Bates County: Mc-O 58-40, Nix-Hul 55-42

————

District 6: Sam Graves

Residence: Tarkio

Old PVI: R+7 (Bush-Kerry 57-43)

Gains: Practically every county in northern Missouri

Loses: Some Kansas City suburbs- wealthy Blue Springs and the closer-in Clay county districts

New PVI: Much more heavily Republican, probably R+15-20

Analysis: It’s the northern Missouri exurban-rural district, stretching from the northern Kansas City suburbs all the way to the outskirts of St. Louis. It becomes a blood-red district … Sam Graves is safe here as long as he wants. It’s perhaps not quite as ironclad as numbers might suggest–Nixon won a number of these counties, especially the ones that have higher populations (Buchanan, Platte, Clay). But the northeast is especially Republican and Sam Graves or a competent Republican should have no trouble holding this heavily-stacked district.

Main population centers: St. Joseph, Kansas City suburbs (Platte/Clay), rural northern Missouri

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District 7: Roy Blunt (until the next election)

Old PVI: R+17

Gains: Barton, Vernon, Cedar, Dade, half of Taney

Loses: Polk

New PVI: Probably about the same, still heavily Republican

Analysis: It may not technically have the highest number of Republicans in terms of percentage of registered voters, but southwest Missouri is full of religious conservatives and this district will be safely, probably wingnuttily-Republican. But then again, it pretty much was before, so no major changes here. The borders expand modestly, but the flavor remains the same.

Main population centers are Joplin, Springfield and Branson (whose county, Taney, is now entirely in the 7th).

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District 8: Jo Ann Emerson, R

Residence:

Old PVI: R+15

Gains: Webster, Dallas, Polk, Hickory, Laclede, Benton, Camden, Miller, Pulaski, St. Clair

Loses: (other) Half of Taney, Washington, Iron, St. Francois, Perry, Phelps

Analysis: Jo Ann should like her new district–she loses the most Democrat-friendly parts (Washington, Iron, St. Francois) and picks up a slew of more conservative counties in south-central Missouri, stretching her district into the Ozarks. Although Emerson has been drifting gently toward the center (which basically means support stem cell research and uh…) since being elected in 1998, she’s still definitely conservative enough to represent this new district–after all, a lot of her new counties would be used to voting for Democrat Ike Skelton, so a center-right, but not far-right representative should do the trick.

“Main population centers” are…Cape Girardeau? Poplar Bluff?

Southern MO map:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/4…

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District 9: Blaine Lueketmeyer

Residence: St. Elizabeth, Miller County

Old PVI: R+9

Disappeared!

His district is eaten by several others, and he now lives in Jo Ann Emerson’s new 8th. He has little chance to defeat her in primary as her base makes up the vast majority of this district.

But his previous district is now split between the new ones of Skelton, Akin and Carnahan, wi

So why would Republicans sacrifice ole Blaine?

Blaine will lose because he has the least seniority, other than whoever Blunt’s replacement is. But Blunt’s district makes sense–southwest Missouri–as opposed to Blaine’s crazy-shaped current 9th (“Little Dixie” …yeah, good try).

Why else dump Blaine? Because Republicans get a lot in return. Three totally safe districts, one mostly safe one, and they have a chance on at least one, if not two, of the “Democratic” districts. Democrats will like it because it’s a better balance and they may have a chance with Akin in the future. And with Skelton unlikely to make it another decade in Congress (though I hope and pray to God he does) they’re gonna lose one forever if they don’t agree to act now. Basically, you can gerrymander Missouri a lot worse.

Overall, despite its 2008 performance, Missouri is still the ultimate swing state, and having a 4-4 delegation (with one seat that could go to Republicans) seems right.

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Other Missouri redistricting maps:

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Source:

MO Gov Race – http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrMaps/…  (MO Sec. of State’s office)