KS-03: How Stephene Moore Might Just Be a Better Candidate Than Dennis Moore in 2010

When I first heard that Stephene Moore was running to succeed her husband in Congress, I was really disappointed that we’d put up what I saw as a “Hail Mary” type of candidate in a district where it didn’t have to be that way. As someone born and raised in KS-03, it was extra disappointing.

The reaction from friends and family in the area was similar–what the heck do the Moores think they’re doing? There were tons of questions–mostly along the lines of why Dennis would “retire from politics” and yet have his wife run? And of course, the wingnuts went crazy with a weird attack that the Moores wanted a second congressional pension and that was why Stephene would subject herself (and her husband) to continued political fire.

But might Stephene Moore turn out to be just the type of candidate we need this cycle to hold the seat? The conclusion I came to might just surprise you…

Quick note on her name: Stephene is pronounced just like “Stephanie.” But before we get into the reasons why Stephene might just turn out to be a better candidate than Dennis, first, let’s get to better know the district….

KS-03 contains part of Douglas County & all of Wyandotte Co. (WyCo, though locals now often call it “The Dot”), which are, by far, the two most liberal counties in the state. Douglas has the young, progressive college town of Lawrence while WyCo, despite recent suburban-style growth around the new-ish NASCAR speedway, is poor majority-minority urban core neighborhoods for the most part. These counties provide any Democrat with a big chunk of votes, as they often vote up to 75-25% in favor of Team Blue, depending on the race. Unfortunately, they only make up roughly 20% of the vote (or less, depending on turnout).

The third and final county in KS-03 is suburban Johnson County (JoCo). That’s where I grew up and where my parents and a good chunk of my family still lives–and it’s where elections are decided for KS-03. It’s also the richest and most populous county in the state…it’s kinda like “The OC” of the Kansas City metro area. And like The OC, it’s growing increasingly diverse and moving steadily toward Democrats, albeit from a heavily Republican base.

So in order to win KS-03, a Democrat must at least run pretty darn close to the Republican in JoCo, so that votes from WyCo & Douglas will put the Dem over the top.

The JoCo voters that Moore was able to attract–moderate Republicans and right-leaning indies–tend to be upper-middle-class economic moderates (think Chamber of Commerce/country club types who supposedly hate taxes but have frequently voted to raise them if it means they get services they want, like good schools…more on this later) with mildly progressive social views (pro-choice, anti-creationism, pro-stem cell research, fairly pro-gay) that are likely a consequence of high education levels as anything else.

My parents, for example, are college-educated white-collar professionals who are socially liberal (having a gay son helps) and economically moderate. Mom’s a Democrat, Dad’s a somewhat more conservative indie (again, statistically typical) and since 1998, they’ve happily voted and displayed yard signs for Dennis Moore, while simultaneously being represented by (and seeming happy with) “moderate” Republican state Rep. Kevin Yoder, who’s running in the KS-03 Republican primary against a host of ultraconservatives, and teabaggers.

But up until this weekend when we chatted, my folks were uncharacteristically angry over Stephene Moore as the Democratic standard-bearer, mostly from a nepotism POV. However, I think I convinced them (and my previously-doubty self) that she could be a really good candidate who deserves support…and has some unique attributes beyond her name that make her particularly qualified to win this cycle.

So let’s get the nepotism charge out of the way…I pointed out that it’s really not nepotism if voters get to choose every step of the way–it’s not like Moore resigned mid-term and the Democratic governor appointed Stephene. No, Moore announced his retirement early and KS Dems spent months casting about unsuccessfully for a candidate. When they couldn’t find one with a chance in hell of winning, good ole Dennis once again rode to the rescue by encouraging his wife to run. The bottom line is that if KS-03 voters so choose, they won’t be represented by Stephene Moore for even a day.

Of course, to even have a chance, she has to run a heckuva campaign (as she presumably watched Dennis do every two years). In terms of her campaign so far, I’ve been pleasantly surprised…in announcing, she came right out and said that she wasn’t entitled to the seat and then in the same breath stressed her Johnson County roots and qualifications for the office.

But the biggest surprise may be that, when I learned more about Ms. Moore and started to think about it, she actually seems rather uniquely qualified to contest the seat this year… perhaps even more than her husband, and current Congressman, Dennis (though I still believe he would’ve won, since he’s done it before in even tougher circumstances).

But I do think KS-03 voters might just choose her to represent them in the end. Here’s why…

I think that in KS-03 in 2010, the big issues are likely to be health care, abortion (that’s a perennial in KS), gov’t spending, education and the stupid economy. On every single one, Stephene is, rather surprisingly, seemingly better equipped (at least in theory) to defend the positions that she and Dennis mostly share on these issues.

Health care: Stephene’s a longtime nurse, while none of her potential opponents has worked in health care (nor has Dennis for that matter) giving her a distinct personal knowledge advantage. A Republican backing full repeal (like all the conservatives) or a moderate whose only healthcare idea is tort reform (Yoder) will compare unfavorably.

Abortion: As a woman and more importantly, as a high-risk obstetrics nurse, I’m sure she has more experience and insights on this issue and why abortions need to remain legal than any opponent, period. And it would take a ballsy (and stupid) Republican to call a woman who’s delivered 1000 Kansan babies a “baby-killer.” Attention, Emily’s List, you’re needed in KS-03.

Gov’t Spending: She can glom onto Dennis’ hard-earned fiscal conservative reputation and promise the same, while repudiating his vote for the unpopular bank bailout. Dennis would’ve had to defend that one.

Education: Admittedly, education is not usually a federal issue/one that affects a congressional race, but there are a few other factors in play this cycle….

#1 – State budgets have been slashed, cutting aid to JoCo’s prized schools, which has made a lot of locals nervous. Even my empty-nester parents are worried because great local schools buoy the value of their home.  

#2 – The latest budget proposal that had even more cuts was created by state Rep. Yoder, the moderate Republican front-runner (and chair of the Appropriations Cmte). This will almost certainly come back to haunt him.  

#3 – A mom and grandma (those are all her grandkids in the first pic), Stephene’s done a lot of work with local schools on healthy eating and skin cancer prevention and thus can credibly portray herself as a big supporter of local schools. And giving her room to bash the hell out of Yoder for trying to destroy them. Plus, she bakes. It’s tough to attack an apple pie mom who bakes.

Economy: President Obama’s stimulus will also likely be a vote that local Republicans will use to try and shred Moore’s reputation for fiscal responsibility. Stephene will be able to eschew responsibility for specific items she might be attacked with, while defending the idea (fortunately, the voters she has to attract understand Keynesian economics).

There are a few other factors that might have an effect….

The 2010 Cycle: It’s an anti-incumbent year, and while Stephene doesn’t exactly scream anti-incumbent, she’s still less of an incumbent than Dennis. And the Republican front-runners are all current or very recent elected officeholders.

The Teabagger Effect: Here’s the thing about Kansas: Republicans have been fighting the conservative vs. moderate battle for ages. It’s how Dennis first got elected, actually. With teabaggers riled up, the primary could turn out to be more divisive than expected, despite the exit of conservative favorite Nick Jordan.

So…do you think Stephene Moore can cook up a win?