Author: californianwonder

(Mostly updated for now but im heading to bed and will update the rest tomorrow, leave comments! 🙂

Senate:

Barbara Boxer faces off against Carly Fiorina, former Hewlett-Packard CEO. Already Boxer pulls out the Karl Rove playbook by using Fiorina’s business experience against her. Boxer is a very tough, hard and negative campaigner (perhaps a certain Massachusetts candidate should contact her..) and that hurts Fiorina. I think Boxer will win, more than Brown will against Whitman which is surprising since Boxer is very passionately liberal and Brown is not, but Fiorina is way too conservative for this state. Part of me wants to peg this at Likely D, but i’ll go with reality this time.

Current Status: Leans Democratic

Governor:

This race is HUGE. Not because Meg Whitman made it so with her yacht-loads of $$$, but because of the implications (Redistricting, passing a budget on time, etc) that come with it. Brown is very much a populist and isn’t afraid to ruffle feathers, and comes off as very human and likable. Can’t say the same about Whitman. Even if Housekeeper-gate (love that phrase!) goes away in the voters mind, Brown has an edge due to a large Democratic voter registration, more energized base than in other parts of the country and the overall D lean of this state. Whitman will lose, but by how much remains a battle of inches.

Current Status: Leans Democratic



Lieutenant Governor:

Not so huge as the Gov race, but will tell us if we have an all Dem statewide sweep or will it end here. Appointed LG Abel Maldonaldo faces off against San Fran Mayor Gavin Newsom. Honestly, i don’t like either. Maldo, for instance pulled an eMeg and voted against the original AB 32, the landmark climate change bill but now says Prop 23 is wrong. Newsom comes across as arrogant and at first laughed at the prospect of running for this job, and known infamously for his “Whether you like it or not (gay marriage)” comment. I think this race will end up like the last LG race, between now Congressman Garamendi and now Congressman McClintock, by single digits. I expect Newsom to win narrowly, with the Bay Area dragging him across the finish line.

Current Status: Tossup

Attorney General:

This race is really tough for me (and judging by the California posters here on SSP, hard for them as well).  Between L.A DA Steve Cooley and San Fran DA Kamala Harris, there’s a stark contrast between them. Cooley supports the death penalty and Harris as D.A opposed using it against a cop-killer, that’s a big no-no if your going to be running for Attorney General. Alot of San Fran dems i’ve heard will vote for Cooley and that is really bad news. I think this race will be fought till the last vote is counted, stay up all night folks: this one is going down to the wire. I can’t even say who will be dragged across the finish line for now.

Current Status: Tossup

Secretary of State:

Debra Bowen faces off against a dude who hasn’t voted in forever (seeing shades of Whitman anyone?), named Damon Dunn. Is this even worth mentioning?

Current Status: Safe Democratic

Insurance Commissioner:

State Assemblymembers Dave Jones, the Democrat from Sacramento and Mike Villines of Clovis (Fresno County) face off. Villines is the former GOP leader in the Assembly who got the Mike Castle treatment after voting for the budget which contains some taxes. I think Jones is clearly favored, but Villines’ strength in the Central Valley will help narrow the margin quite a bit. Incumbent Steve Poizner ran against eMeg and got whopped badly so he’s not in this year.

Current Status: Likely Democratic

Controller:

Incumbent John Chiang faces off against 06′ opponent State Sen. Tony Strickland of Ventura County.

Current Status: Safe Democratic

Treasurer:

Incumbent Bill Lockyer faces off against OC State Sen. Mimi Walters.

Current Status: Safe Democratic

Superintendent of Public Instruction:

Officially it’s a non-partisan post. But the two opponents are State Assemblyman Tom Torlakson, the teacher’s union favorite against retired school Superintendent Larry Aceves, who’s in the middle of the war between charter and public schools. He surprised everyone by making second place, when State Sen Gloria Romero was considered the favorite and a charter school proponent. I like Aceves as he is a former Superintendent, but i think ultimately the voters will side with Torlakson for whatever reason.

Current Status: Leans Torlakson

The Propositions:

Prop 19 — Legalize and tax cannabis. Very contentious issue that has split the State Dem party into two factions both of whom support the measure but have differencing views on how to show support. I say it passes by a small margin.

Prop 20 — Expanding the Current citizens redistricting panel to include U.S House races as well. I oppose this, as we need more Democrats in California to make up for the bazillion seats we lose in November, but with an angry electorate you never know the result. I say it passes by a razor thin margin, much like Prop 13 in 2008.

Prop 21 — Funding State parks. Even though there really isnt an organized org against this, a ton of prominent newspapers have came out against it, like the Los Angeles Times which is very Dem-leaning in their endorsements. I fear a lot of people will buy the “oh noez its teh taxes!!1” B.S, but i still believe it passes by a good sized margin.

Prop 22 — Preventing state gov. from taking local funds from the local governments. Dunno about this one, but i think it passes by anywhere from 6-10 points.

Prop 23 — This must go down big. A stupid ploy by the oil companies/Koch bros./climate change deniers to suspend AB32 until the unemployment reaches 5.5%, a really impossible feat. I say it FAILS by 6-8%.

Prop 24 — Another MUST pass. This will repeal corporate tax breaks that the legislature passed during last year’s budget mayhem. I say it passes (even though i have lost faith in this system) by a 10 point margin.

Prop 25 —  Majority vote to pass a fees or taxes. This is I say it passes by a 5-6 point margin.

Prop 26 — Takes a supermajority to raise fees/taxes. NO. We’ve seen this gridlock happen to the budget, why do we need more? It fails by a 4-5 point margin.

Prop 27 — This one is easy. Why give the legislature control of their own districts’ shape? The arguments for this Prop are extremely pathetic, and voters will see through them. I say it fails by at least 5 points or more.

Interesting Races to Note:

CA-03/AD-05:

I put these two races in the same place because they are very similar in shape and very competitive. Democrat Ami Bera is facing off against Dan Lungren in the third district, while Democrat Richard Pan faces off against “Businessman” Andy Pugno. Bera is making this race more competitive than it should for one reason: $$$. Bera has constantly out-raised the GOP incumbent and national Dems quickly got on board with the campaign. But will it be enough for him in a GOP year?

Meanwhile over in AD-05, Richard Pan can take solace over the fact that registration has dipped amongst the GOP, and Andy Pugno is no “Businessman”, more like the lawyer for Prop 8, which Pan is using against him. Pugno has outraised Pan by a small amount, and the good news for us is this is an open seat, which makes it more likely to take. This poll from the Pan campaign shows it to be a tossup but the Pugno campaign released(no actual direct link to the pollster) their poll showing Pugno ahead by 18 points, with the third party candidate netting 10%.

Current AD-05 Status: Tossup

Current CA-03 Status: Tossup

AD-10:

Here’s a race that should be on everyone’s radar. Incumbent Alyson Huber (D) faces off against her 08′ opponent Jack Sieglock. This district has 40% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 16.85% Decline to State. Obama narrowly won here, and Huber did by a razor thin 474 votes. Will the Central Valley see Huber lose? Or will her incumbency play a positive factor? On election night, if Huber loses by a lot, the Central Valley is going to be a bloodbath. Includes a part of Jerry McNerney’s CA-11 (Lodi and part of Stockton).

Current Status: Tossup

AD-15:

Includes most of Jerry McNerney’s district, and another top race in a state with very few competitive races. Incumbent Joan Buchanan also faces her 08′ opponent, San Ramon Mayor Abram Wilson. Buchanan ran for Congress last year but lost to John Garamendi, so she’s back here for re-election. 40.65% are Democrats, 36.65% are Republicans and about 20% are Decline to State, giving Buchanan a bit more comfort than her neighbor in the north has. If Buchanan loses, then McNerney will also likely fall as this district mostly has the same communities and both face top-tier opponents. I think Buchanan wins, as her East Bay district is trending more Democratic and the coat-tails provided by all three Bay Area candidates should help her.

Current Status: Leans Democratic

CA-11:

Here’s the most competitive race in California, in my opinion. Jerry McNerney is facing a tough challenge from Attorney David Harmer, who ran for congress in a neighboring district last year and got a respectable 45%. McNerney is going to feel the pain of running in 2010, as his last two re-elections were all in very Democratic years. Harmer has raised a ton, but McNerney is also catching up. McNerney touts his support for Veterans, clean energy and even the Stimulus. I expect this race to be close, but this one is definitely on my “bellwether” list.

Current Status: Tossup

AD-30:

Here’s a race where we’ll know for sure how politically bad it is in the Central Valley. Incumbent Danny Gilmore (R) is leaving after only one term, and the race is between Democrat Fran Florez, a fixture in Kern County politics versus David Valadao, a local farmer. This district has gotten an ugly reputation for dirty politics, as Florez ran here in 2008 but lost to Gilmore and some say he was helped by the endorsement of former AD-30 Assemblywoman Nicole Parra (D, now an Independent). There’s been a long feud against the Parra and Florez families, and Florez had to face Pete Parra, Nicole’s father, in the primary but easily won. Valadao’s website touts support from both Gilmore and Parra, most likely as a result of the two families feud. Even though Democrats make up 46% of the district, many are conservative and the issue of water will be huge.

Current Status: Tossup

This is a scenario if Republicans were to win the state House, this is a probable map since they already control the State Senate. (I’m pretty sure the legislature does this, or is it a commission?)

UPDATE: New proposed Columbus map in the comments (sorry mods if its too big!!), creating a safe Columbus (60%+ Obama, 200,000 African Americans) district and a likely Republican suburb district.

Cincinatti area:

OH-01:

Hamilton, Cincinatti suburbs

Steve Driehaus (D)*

Adds more Republican Butler County (avoiding West Chester, where Boehner lives) and loses all of the heavily black parts of Cincinatti (much like how Columbus’ district are already). Driehaus is D.O.A here, but he could run in the 3rd district, where the black parts of Cincinatti are in Jean Schmidt’s district. Eitherway, this district is a Republican one.

OH-02:

Middletown, Troy, West Chester

John Boehner (R)

Warps around Dayton, but still extremely Republican. Minority (or Majority) Leader Boehner is safe.

OH-03:

Most of Cincinatti, Portsmouth

Jean Schmidt (R)

Schmidt is screwed. That’s putting it nicely. If she only ecks out single-digit wins in an extremely conservative district, she won’t win here with all the new African-Americans in the district. I’m guessing Steve Dreihaus would run here, and the Republican gerrymander actually helps him surprisingly.

OH-04:

Dayton, Kettering, Springfield

Michael Turner (R)

Turner keeps his Dayton-area base and expands to Springfield via  Fairborn in Greene County. Also takes Mary Jo Kilroy’s  Madison and Union counties. Safe.

OH-05:

Lancaster, Beavercreek, Zanesville

Steve Austria (R)

Austria’s district expands to take in two of Zack Space’s most visible cities, Zanesville and Chillicothe.

OH-06:

Western Columbus and suburbs Most of Columbus

Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

Kilroy is probably slightly more safer, as ultra-conservative Union and Madison counties are out of her district and is entirely within Franklin County. Her race is still a toss-up to me though. Yeah nevermind, by making Kilroy safe, we also keep Pat Tiberi safe as well, which helps the GOP actually. Obama probably took in 64% in this district, so Kilroy can live another day. Now with exactly 200,161 African Americans!

OH-07:

Eastern Columbus, Delaware, Mount Vernon North and Eastern Columbus suburbs

Pat Tiberi (R)

What do you get when you combine extremely Republican counties outside of Columbus and the African-American heavy parts of Columbus? A swing district, like this one. Slightly a bit more African-American, Tiberi is still safe. Centered around Columbus makes Tiberi a whole lot safer, even if it helps another Democrat.

OH-08:

Lima, Findlay, Defiance

Jim Jordan (R)

Still the most conservative district in Ohio. Nothing to see here.

OH-09:

Bowling Green, Mansfield, Fremont

Bob Latta (R)

Mostly unchanged but expands into the Mansfield-area. Safe.

OH-10:

Toledo, Lorain, part of Elyria

Marcy Kaptur (D)

Expands to take in Lorain and parts of Elyria, safe for Kaptur.

OH-11:

Massilion, Kent, part of Elyria

Betty Sutton (D)

This district takes in Medina County and loses most of Akron. If this district was to be implemented, Sutton would probably lose this year.  Republican pickup.

OH-12:

Canton, Athens, New Philadelphia

Zack Space (D) vs John Boccieri (D) vs Charlie Wilson? (D)

WesternEastern Ohio’s population is dropping…fast. This district goes from Canton and swirvs its way down to Athens. Zack Space and John Boccieri both live here, but Charlie Wilson lives just right outside the boundaries but this area is still his. Who would win here? I’m guessing Wilson, but if he doesn’t run here i’d go with Space. Sorry John.

OH-13:

Youngstown, Steubenville, Warren

Tim Ryan (D) vs Charlie Wilson? (D)

This is where Charlie Wilson lives but most of this area is represented by Tim Ryan. Ryan is moderate enough for this district, so Wilson is in a predictament here.

OH-14:

Western Cleveland, part of Elyria

Dennis Kucinich (D)

Mostly the same but goes into Lorain County to pickup votes.

OH-15:

Eastern Cleveland, most of Akron

Marcia Fudge (D)

Here’s the district which bugged me the most. I’m not sure if it HAS to be majority-black, but i kept it that way anyways. stretches into Akron to take in African-American votes.

OH-16:

Mentor, Ashtabula, part of Akron

Steven LaTourette (R)

Slightly more Democratic due to the presence of Akron. LaTourette is still safe though.

More pictures:

Breakdown:

OH-01, OH-02, OH-04, OH-05, OH-07, OH-08, OH-09, OH-11,OH-16: Republican Seats

OH-03 (if Schmidt runs): Tossup seats

OH-10, OH-12, OH-13, OH-14, OH-15: Democratic Seats

6 Democratic Seats

1 Tossup seats

9 Republican Seats

If Schmidt doesn’t run:

10 Republican Seats

6 Democratic Seats

First redistricting diary, tell me what you think 🙂 (And no, i am not and will not do California. As much as i love my state, its too large and the precincts are annoying…Yes i’m talking to you Santa Clara and Kern Counties.)

This article by the New York Times highlights what we here on the ground already knew: The political winds are turning against the Republicans here. I already detailed this with my two previous diaries, but i want to add another part: the state of the local races here two very competitive Assembly districts.

Recently, Art Pedroza of the Orange Juice Blog recently wrote a scathing criticism of the leadership and the workings of the OC Democratic Party. While i disagree with him on certain issues, he makes a strong point by saying:

Make no mistake about it- the Republican Party of Orange County is the enemy.  They hate Mexicans.  They hate homosexuals.  They hate the poor.  They are corrupt, for the most part.  Stop kissing up to these people!

Now on to the locally contested races:

AD-68

Challengers: Phu Ngyuen (D) vs Allan Mansoor (R)

Registration: 40.1% Rep./32.7% Dem./21.9% Ind

Analysis: Located in the South-west part of OC, this district is extremely diverse with Hispanic enclave Stanton to the north, down to famed Little Saigon and the ethnically diverse meltingpot known as Costa Mesa. Democrat Phu Ngyuen is running a strong campaign against Costa Mesa Mayor Allan Mansoor, who is known for his Joe Arapaio-like bullying of immigrants. Ngyuen was recruited by the Dems for his strong ties to the Vietnamese community, a very competitive voting group and has the backing of the entire OC Democratic Party leaders. According to the Secretary of State, Ngyuen has $136,604 CoH while Mansoor is at a jaw-dropping $8,617! However, this race is still favorable to Mansoor due to his stature in Costa Mesa and the generally pro-Republican lean of 2010. Still, if Ngyuen can pull within single digits, that’s a win in itself.

Rating: Leans Republican

AD-70

Challengers: Melissa Fox (D) vs Don Wagner (R)

Registration: 42.3% Rep./30% Dem./23% Ind

Analysis: This race is gonna be one to watch on election day. Attorney Melissa Fox is up against Don Wagner, a member of the Coastal Community College District and a vocal social conservative. This district is open after Chuck DeVore’s pathetic attempt to beat Carly Fiorina in the Republican Senate race. Fox has been hitting the ground hard, running a stellar grassroots campaign and recently won the Democracy for America’s Allstar Grassroots campaign. However her fundraising is small, having raised only around $27,000 and having an anemic $7,747. But Wagner manages to beat (or stump below?) that, having raised $163,208 he is now at an amazing….$425. Yes, four-hundred and twenty-five dollars. But to be fair, he did face a very crowded Republican Primary, where he was the underdog against favorite Steven Choi, an Irvine Councilman. The folks at Orange Juice and the Liberal OC have been relentlessly going after Wagner since the campaign’s started. It amazes me that even though this district, with its large Republican registration, not only voted for Obama (51-47) but against! Prop 8 (50-50 narrowly) and yet they keep giving us Chuck DeVore-style religious wacko’s like Wagner. Nevertheless, my heart says this race is a Tossup but my mind tells me its another Leans R, but i’m letting my heart win for today.

Rating: Tossup

For those who are interested, here’s some links:

http://cal-access.ss.ca.gov/Ca… — Secretary of State’s Website for Campaign Funds

http://orangejuiceblog.com — In my opinion, the best place for knowledge on OC politics. Some posters have libertarian tendencies (such as Art Pedroza) while others are solid progressives (like Vern Nelson), but its still a very telling website to learn more on OC Politics.

http://votemelissafox.com — Melissa Fox, Democratic Nominee for AD-70

http://votephu.com — Phu Ngyuen, Democratic Nominee for AD-68

(Note: Wednesday is my first day of school (go juniors!), so my presence on SSP will be limited. But i’ll be back as much as i can to catch up on any delicious cat fud that may appear and of course i’ll stay for the November elections, so this may be my final (diary) post for a while. =)

(Note 2: This post was intended to focus on all local OC races, but i only picked AD-68 and AD-70 because of the competitiveness and visibility it has gotten.)

For part 2, i stick to mainly text (sorry, no pretty graphics this time) to describe in detail how the Democratic trends in Orange County coincide with the overall social views on LGBT rights and Abortion.

While John McCain narrowly won Orange County, a so called bastion of conservatism (In fact, other than the Central Valley and parts of North Country, Orange County is indeed the only Republican turf left in the LA Area), support for Propositions 8 and 4 (A measure making underage pregnant women have to get permission seeking an Abortion) were higher at 58 and 55%, respectively. Why the stark difference between the two? Well, if you think it has to do with self-identified Republican voters, you’re half right, follow me below the fold.

While its a certainty that some Republicans and Independents crossed over to vote for Barack Obama, they were also instrumental in passing Props 4 and 8. But another extremely significant voting group helped as well: Hispanics. I was going to make a map (like the one with presidential results earlier) showing support/opposition to these ballot initatives, but its very easy to tell where support came from. Cities like Santa Ana, a “sanctuary” city home to a large (if not, massive) Hispanic population, voted overwhelmingly for not only Obama, but for Props 4 and 8.

First, let’s look at the so called “Blue” cities, that voted for Obama but for 4 and 8, the Yes/No results show how strongly the vote was for/against using the whole county as a baseline average:

Santa Ana:

Obama/McCain: 66/32

%Hispanic: 78%

Y/N Prop 4: 62/38 (+7 YES)

Y/N Prop 8: 62/38 (+4 YES)

Anaheim:

Obama/McCain: 51/47

%Hispanic: 48%

Y/N Prop 4: 59/41 (+4 YES)

Y/N Prop 8: 61/39 (+3 YES)

Buena Park:

Obama/McCain: 52/46

%Hispanic: 35%

Y/N Prop 4: 61/39 (+6 YES)

Y/N Prop 8: 62/38 (+4 YES)

These three cities were essential for President Obama’s near-victory here, but they weren’t the only surprises on election day. Next, i look at cities that voted for John McCain, but voted against or narrowly for these propositions.

Huntington Beach:

Obama/McCain: 45/53

Y/N Prop 4: 49/51 (-6 NO)

Y/N Prop 8: 53/47 (-5 YES)

Newport Beach:

Obama/McCain: 40/58

Y/N Prop 4: 47/53 (-8 NO)

Y/N Prop 8: 51/49 (-7 YES)

Dana Point:

Obama/McCain: 47/51

Y/N: 49/51 (-6 NO)

Y/N: 51/49 (-7 YES)

Newport Beach is strongly Republican, over 50% of its registered voters are Republicans, yet it opposed Proposition 4 (thus affirming a Pro-Choice stance) and barely supported Prop 8, all-the-while giving an 18-point victory to John McCain, while Huntington and Dana Point show similar, yet slightly more favorable results on both.

What does this all mean? Well, while Hispanics are generally pro-Democratic, notice extremely carefully that they aren’t pro-Liberal, and their Catholic views on Abortion and gay rights are in line with typical social conservatives. But, there is also a “country club” force in Orange County, the fiscal hawks who are in total agreement with the Tea Partiers, but are increasingly disillusioned with the Christian-right faction of the Republican Party. To sum it up: don’t just look on the surface to find your electoral answers for these voters, you have to dig further. It’s going to be interesting what the electorate will look like come 2012.

(Note: This is a two-part diary on analysis of Orange County, i am writing up analysis of the effect of Prop 8 tomorrow. I apologize if it seems too long, but this is from a perspective of an OC resident. Comments and criticisms are welcomed.)

In 2008, Barack Obama accomplished something no other Democrat statewide could do: Keep Orange County within single digits (47-50%). While everyone knew he would win California (maybe not by the double-digit margin he did it by), no one including many OC Democrats here would imagine him being on the cusp of a symbolic victory: Winning in territory the media calls “America’s most conservative county”, the home of Richard Nixon and the center of Conservatism in California.

Well, how did he do it? Well, much like the so-called “Obama Wave” swamped the entire country, it also hit ground here in Orange County, taking the top three populated cities (Santa Ana, Anaheim and Irvine) and making large inroads in normally-conservative areas. President Obama wasn’t the only major change to Orange County politics, the controversional ballot measure known as Proposition 8 also broke-down boundaries, and you wouldn’t believe which cities voted for (or narrowly against) and against it, but first let’s take a look at each cities performance for the 2008 Presidential election (08′ only):

City	PVI	% ’08	Notes
(Orange County)	R+4	47/50	Whole county.
Aliso Viejo	D+1	53/45	Incorporated after 2000 Census
Anaheim	R+1	51/47	Minority-majority; Second-largest city
Brea	R+10	42/56
Buena Park	D+1	53/44	Large Asian and Latino populations.
Costa Mesa	EVEN	52/46
Cypress	R+5	47/51
Dana Point	R+5	47/51
Fountain Valley	R+9	43/55
Fullerton	R+3	48.6/49.8	College town; Minority-majority
Garden Grove	R+5	48/51	Minority-majority; Large Vietnamese population
Huntington Beach	R+6	46/52	Libertarian-leaning
Irvine	D+5	57/41	College town
La Habra	R+3	49/48.6	Minority-majority
La Palma	R+3	48.4/49
Laguna Beach	D+11	63/35	Well known for large LGBT community
Laguna Hills	R+7	45/53
Laguna Niguel	R+6	46/52
Laguna Woods	EVEN	52/46	Extremely high percentage of Senior citizens
Lake Forest	R+7	46/53	Large evangelical presence; Added communities after 2000 census
Los Alamitos*	R+4	49/50
Mission Viejo	R+8	44/54
Newport Beach	R+12	40/58	Libertarian-leaning
Orange	R+7	45/53
Placentia	R+9	43/55	Large Hispanic population
Rancho Santa Margartia	R+9	43/55
San Clemente	R+10	42/56	Home of Ronald Reagan
San Juan Capistrano	R+10	42/56
Santa Ana	D+14	66/32	Largest city; Hispanic-majority; Most Democratic
Seal Beach	R+5	48/51
Stanton	D+2	54/44	Minority-majority
Tustin	EVEN	52/46
Villa Park	R+25	27/71	Most Republican; Least populated city
Westminster	R+10	42/56	Large Vietnamese population, home to Little Saigon
Yorba Linda	R+18	32/66	Birthplace of Richard Nixon

*Number 12 on the map, wasn’t added to the list.

If your one who prefers visuals (and tolerates crappy novice-style use of paint :P), then look below:

This result shows that Obama made a large impact on Hispanic voters (OC was very Pro-Clinton during the primaries, as well as Hispanics), winning the heavily hispanic cities of Santa Ana, Buena Park, Stanton and Anaheim. He also made inroads with more conservative areas in the south, losing Huntington Beach by only 6 points (46-52) while it has a majority GOP registration edge, and Lake Forest by a similar margin (46-53), known for its strong evangelical presence such as the Saddleback Church and its pastor Rick Warren. Obama also gained huge support amongst young voters, handily carring Irvine (home to UC Irvine), and narrowly (48.6-49.4) losing Fullerton (home to Cal State Fullerton). From here, we’re going through a city-by-city analysis of how it votes, demographics and whether its going to be competitive in the elections to come:

(Note: I will detail the important cities to look for below, so not all 34 cities will be listed below.)

Aliso Viejo:

Population: 46,123

Analysis: Nestled in the fast-growing area of South Orange County, Aliso Viejo (the youngest city as of 2001) is an example of a city that is trending Democratic. Not only did it vote for Obama by a comfortable 6 point margin, it was one of only 4 cities here in Orange County that voted AGAINST Proposition 8 (48.5-51.5) and the second-strongest showing against the measure, Laguna Beach being the strongest. It is the stereotypical “Country club” Republican city, fiscally conservative on most issues (Also voting against the state’s High speed rail initative, which passed) but fairly moderate-to-liberal on social issues, voting against Propositon 4 which sought to restrict contraceptives to minors unless a parent has consent. If any Democrat statewide seriously plans to turn Orange County blue, winning Aliso Viejo is a must.

Anaheim:

Population: 353,643

Analysis: The second largest city in the county and the main entertainment hub, home to Disneyland. Anaheim is a city that is easily classified by geography. Most of Anaheim is fairly urban and very Hispanic, mainly around the Downtown area. But to the East, lies a whole different kind of Anaheim: the community of Anaheim Hills. Already hearing the name, and you’re correct to guess that its a more wealthy, upscale area far different than its neighbor to the west. Home to mansions and a getaway for celebrities, Anaheim Hills is strongly GOP turf, fiscally and socially conservative but more so on the fiscal side. For someone to want to turn Orange County blue, they would need to keep their margins down in Anaheim Hills and fairly high in the rest of Anaheim.

Brea:

Population: 40,377

Analysis: This one is personal since this is where i live, but its also the most descriptive as well. Surrounded by large cities (Fullerton, Chino Hills and Diamond Bar), Brea is a sanctuary to escape from the bigger more urban cities in and around LA County. Politically, however Brea is strongly conservative, especially socially. There is a large and very influential Mormon presence here (There’s two LDS places of worship here alone!) along with large Catholic, and Baptist faiths. To the south is the even-more conservative city of Yorba Linda, who uses the city of Brea’s Police since they don’t have their own department. However there is a steadily growing Hispanic population, mainly from neighboring La Habra and cities near Brea in LA County, but like with Mormons they are socially-conservative as well, so its a double-edged sword. No Democrat will win here, but cracking 40% here is an accomplishment in its own.

Buena Park:

Population: 84,141

Analysis: It shares similarities with its neighbor Anaheim in that: Both have large Hispanic populations, and both are known for its amusement parks (Knott’s Berry Farm for Buena Park). Yet Buena Park is slightly more Democratic due to its large Asian population (most likely from nearby Cerritos in L.A County) and its higher turnout rates than Anaheim. Buena Park is a must win city, and getting around 55% would be enough for a squeaker county-wide.

Costa Mesa:

Population: 117,178

Analysis: Surrounded by larger cities, Costa Mesa is a popular city to live in due to its close proximity to Huntington/Newport Beach, and close to UC Irvine. But Costa Mesa has made the news for declaring itself a “Rule of Law” city, taking a hard line against illegal immigration. The person most responsible for bringing it up for a vote? The Mayor, Allan Mansoor, who is also running for the State Assembly (Gee, see how that all works out?) in 2010. Despite this, Costa Mesa is trending Democratic because of its large Latino population, along with people from nearby Irvine moving to Costa Mesa. Another must-win to turn the OC Blue.

Fullerton:

Population: 106,335

Analysis: Home to Cal State Fullerton (the largest in the state by enrollment), Fullerton is a fast-growing suburb of Los Angeles and an overall enjoyable city. Gaining a larger Latino population due to its close proximity to Whittier and South Los Angeles, makes Fullerton a swing city for elections to come.

Garden Grove:

Population: 174,715

Analysis: Garden Grove is home to a very large Vietnamese population, much like nearby Westminster is as well. In terms of voter registration, Republicans edge Democrats by around 3,000 voters but gave John McCain a solid 52%. The reason being because Garden Grove is very conservative on social issues, and viewed Obama as too liberal for them. Along with their generally anti-communist views, Garden Grove is also home to a small, but noticable Latino population, mainly from nearby Santa Ana.

Huntington Beach:

Population: About 200,000

Analysis: A well-known tourist destination for those looking for great surfing, Huntington Beach symbolizes a “Live free and Die” mentality, and its voting record is one to notice carefully. Voting for McCain 52-46% while subsequently voting against Prop 4 by 3 points and narrowly voting for Prop 8 by 2 points. If this trend continues, Huntington Beach will be poison for social conservatives.

Irvine:

Population: 212,184

Analysis: Irvine is a city that is rapidly turning Democratic, due to the extremely large influence the University of California, Irvine campus has on the city. In fact, all of the precincts in and around UC Irvine went around 80% for Obama. The city council has a Democratic majority, along with the Mayor, and has implemented many progressive policies. Democrats, Republicans and Decline to State voters all have around 30,000 voters each, meaning Irvine is a solid tossup for elections to come, but give it a Democratic edge due to its large youth voters.

Laguna Beach:

Population: 23,727

Analysis: Laguna Beach is the major LGBT scene in Orange County, and was one of the first cities to sponsor a resolution opposing Proposition 8, so its no surprise that Obama carried Laguna Beach by a landslide. Laguna Beach is the second most Democratic city in Orange County, and will likely overpower Santa Ana as #1 in the near future. Any Democratic candidate can easily win here.

Lake Forest:

Population: 78,720

Analysis: Home to the Saddleback Church and its pastor, Rick Warren, Lake Forest is situated within Southern Orange County and is close to the cities of Mission Viejo and Irvine. Despite its reputation as being home to major evangelical groups, Obama did surprisingly well, keeping his loss within single digits. Could he win here in 2012? It depends on a number of factors, but it can’t be ruled out.

Santa Ana:

Population: 355,662

Analysis: Santa Ana is ground zero for Democrats, its strongest (being the most populated city in the county) and safest city politically. Home to an extremely large (almost 80%) Hispanic population, Democrats routinely poll in the high 60’s and all of the currently elected officials (State Senate/Assembly/Congress) have Santa Ana as their major base.

UPDATE: Chris Norby, the Current Board of Supervisors member will run for the 72nd, instead of Clerk-Recorder. (H/tOCRegister)

UPDATE 2: Placentia Councilman Scott Nelson, Former Placentia Councilman and wife of Former Senate GOP Leader Dick Ackerman, Linda Ackerman are either planning on running or expressed interest.

I was planning on making this apart of the other diaries to come on Assembly races, but because of Mike DuVall’s latest resignation after it is known that he is another idiotic family values republican who pulled a Sanford. Even Lynn Daucher, the last assemblywoman from my home city, was moderate on Abortion (Hmm, always the women in the GOP, with the pro-choice sentiments?)

Now for the district:

Basically, it covers most of North OC, including Placentia, La Habra, Brea, part of Fullerton and Anaheim..and Yorba Linda. There is hope, we can win here if we try hard to get stand behind John MacMurray elected. The only obstacle is Yorba Linda, with its very slanted registration status makes it the sole decider on who becomes an Assemblyperson. It is also the least GOP district in Orange County, with only 43.2% Republican, 33.8% Democratic while just about 19% are Decline to State.

The issue, like President Obama’s campaign: The Independents. They can swing this district blue if we can get a strong message and alot of campaign donations. Fullerton is DEM-friendly, where McCain won by less than a 1,000 votes! Anaheim is, along with La Habra (Shout out to Councilwoman Rose Espinosa!). Brea and Placentia are GOP-favored, but are small to not make much difference. Then..Yorba Linda. Yes, the same Yorba Linda where Richard Nixon’s Presidential library is, where over 50% of voters are Republican, and Democrats narrowly beat the Independents. The issues must be on the Economy, Health Care and Education. Stick it to the voters, how rude the GOP is ( like a certain congressman shouting crap at tonight’s state of the union address, and Rahm gets the last laugh) But anti-reformers are also here, thanks to a recent townhall by Rep. Gary “Dirty” Miller (R-Diamond Bar). The idea is a simple one: Unite. Unite moderate Republicans (yes, they’re still alive here.) who are socially moderate, fiscally conservative and moderate Democrats who are hesitant about the Public Option. Better than a Zell Miller Democrat (if i can say that), but not necessarily a Blue Dog either. Maybe he can stylize himself as a “Bi-Partisan Democrat” or something. Only time will tell..

Current Challengers:

Democratic:

John MacMurray, a teacher from La Habra

Republican:

Chris Norby, Current Member of the Board of Supervisors

Possibly Brea City Councilman Marty Simonoff, who lost to DuVall in the primary 61%-39%

Possibly Placentia Councilman Scott Nelson

Possibly Former Placentia Councilman Scott Brady

Possibly Linda Ackerman, wife of former GOP Senate Leader Dick Ackerman

Possibly City of Orange Councilman Jon Dumitru

I’ll expand on this a bit later, but for now let’s just stand behind John MacMurray.

Greetings, this is my first post here. Glad to meet you all. Being a Californian, i decided to post my $0.02 about the races here, once i finish the Assembly, next is the Senate. As a High School Sophomore, i’ve always been interested in these races, so if i do not read any replies about updates and what not, i have schoolwork.:

CA-01:

Incumbent: Wesley Chesboro (D-Eureka)

Registration:

45.9% DEM

30.3% GOP

14.6% DTS (Decline to State)

Counties: Del Norte, Humboldt, Trinity, Mendocino, Lake, Sonoma (part)

Analysis: Margin between Democrat and Republic registered voters is almost the same as the Decline to State voters. Safe Democrat.

CA-02:

Incumbent: Jim Nielsen (R-Gerber)

Registration:

46.3% GOP

36.7% DEM

11.6% DTS

Counties: Butte (part), Colusa, Glenn, Modoc, Shasta, Siskyou, Sutter, Tehama, Yolo (part)

Analysis: Nielsen is a newcomer, but got elected with 65.4%!. Safe Republican.

CA-03:

Incumbent: Dan Logue (R-Chico)

Registration:

43.0% GOP

36.3% DEM

14.2% DTS

Counties: Butte (Some from the 2nd district, most here), Lassen, Nevada, Placer (part), Plumas, Sierra, Yuba

Analysis:: Logue is a newbie. He got elected with a safe, but still ‘not-so’ with 55.6%. Could be interesting, but looks pretty safe for Logue. Margin between DEM and GOP registered voters is 7.6%, so there could be some action in a district that gave John McCain just under a majority with 49.8%. Republican Favored.

CA-04:

Incumbent: Ted Gaines (R-Roseville)

Registration:

45.4% GOP

35.7% DEM

13.9% DTS

Counties: Alpine, El Dorado (most), Sacramento (less than a sliver), Placer (rest in the 3rd District).

Analysis: Unopposed in 2008, pretty much safe. Safe Republican.

CA-05:

Incumbent: Roger Niello (R-Fair Oaks)

Registration:

43.4% GOP

38.7% DEM

13.2% DTS

Counties: Placer (part), Sacramento (part)

Analysis: Niello is term-limited, Obama won this district with 51.1%, while Niello’s opponent had to deal with a third-party challenger, Niello won with 54%, while the DEM got only 38%, while the third-party got about 8%, and Niello is no moderate. Depending on who runs here, this is a must-win seat. Lean Republican.

CA-06:

Incumbent: Jarred Huffman (D-San Rafael)

Registration:

53.6% DEM

21.2% GOP

20.7% DTS

Counties: Marin, Sonoma (part)

Analysis: Safe.

CA-07:

Incumbent: Noreen Evans (D-Santa Rosa)

Registration:

52.6% DEM

28.9% GOP

13.3% DTS

Counties: Napa, Solano (part), Sonoma (part)

Analysis: Evans is term-limited, safe for whichever Democrat that succeeds her. Safe Democrat.

CA-08:

Incumbent: Mariko Yamada (D-Davis)

Registration:

47.6% DEM

31.1% GOP

16.0% DTS

Counties: Solano (part), Yolo (part is in the 2nd District, most is here)

Analysis: Yamada is a newcomer that won more than Obama did (66.1% compared to O’s 63.3%). Safe Democrat.

CA-09:

Incumbent: Dave Jones (D-Sacramento) Running for Insurance Commissioner

Registration:

58.1% DEM

22.5% GOP

13.5% DTS

Counties: Sacramento (mostly just the City)

Analysis: Safe.

CA-10:

Incumbent: Alyson Huber (D-El Dorado Hills)

Registration:

43.9% GOP

40.8% DEM

11.1% DTS

Counties: Sacramento (part), Amador,  El Dorado (El Dorado Hills), San Joaquin (part)

Analysis: Huber is very vulnerable. She won with only 46.7% against a no-name GOP opponent, but Obama managed to break a majority with 51.1%. We must keep this seat at all costs. Lean Democrat

CA-11:

Incumbent: Tom Torlakson (D-Antioch) Running for Superintendent of Public Instruction

Registration:

53.9% DEM

27.2% DEM

11.2% DTS

Counties: Contra Costa (part)

Analysis: As mentioned above, Torlakson will be running for SPI (a non-partisan office on the outside), if he wins (a possibility, he has to contend with State Sen. Gloria Romero, and some others), a Democrat for sure will win this. Safe Democrat.

CA-12:

Incumbent: Fiona Ma (D-San Fransisco)

Registration:

54.5% DEM

24.5% DTS

15.8% GOP

Counties: About half of SF, San Mateo (part)

Analysis: Fiona Ma, hands down, is one of my favorite legislators. She knows how to communicate via Live Webcast or Social Media. Seriously, a district with SF is automatically: Safe Democrat.

CA-13:

Incumbent: Tom Ammiano (D-San Fransisco)

Registration:

57.7% DEM

22.7% DTS

12.28% GOP

Counties: Other half of SF

Analysis: It’s San Fransisco. Safe Democrat.

CA-14:

Incumbent: Nancy Skinner (D-Berkeley)

Registration:

61.1% DEM

20.7% DTS

13.1% GOP

Counties: Alameda (part), Contra Costa (part)

Analysis: First elected in 2008, unanimously. Safe Democrat.

CA-15:

Incumbent: Joan Buchanan (D-Alamo)

Registration:

44.0% GOP

38.2% DEM

12.0% DTS

Counties: Alameda (part), Contra Costa (part), Sacramento (part), San Joaquin (part)

Analysis: Now that she’s back in the Assembly, she’s gonna work alot harder if she only won with 52.3% while Obama totally got this district with 57.6%. Basically, the more conservative (!) parts of Alameda (!) and Contra Costa make the bulk of this district. Leans Democrat.

CA-16:

Incumbent: Sandre Swanson (D-Oakland)

Registration:

64.0% DEM

16.7% DTS

12.4% GOP

Counties: Alameda (Oakland, Alameda and Piedmont)

Analysis: I believe this is the most Democratic Assembly district there is. Safe Democrat.

CA-17:

Incumbent: Cathleen Galgani (D-Tracy)

Registration:

52.5% DEM

34.7% GOP

8.5% DTS

Counties: Merced, San Joaquin (part), Stanislaus (part)

Analysis: First time elected in 2006, with only 60%, come on in a district like this? Safe Democrat.

CA-18:

Incumbent: Mary Hayashi (D-Hayward)

Registration:

56.1% DEM

24.9% GOP

14.6% DTS

Counties: Alameda (part)

Analysis: Safe.

CA-19:

Incumbent: Jerry Hill (D-San Mateo)

Registration:

51.1% DEM

27.0% GOP

17.5% DTS

Counties: San Mateo (part)

Analysis: Safe.

CA-20:

Incumbent: Alberto Torrico (D-Newark) Running for Attorney General

Registration:

48.4% DEM

27.9% GOP

19.3% DTS

Counties: Alameda (part), Santa Clara (less than 1% of San Jose and Milpitas)

Analysis: Safe.

Feel free to suggest improvements or things i missed.