Analyzing Orange County: Why America’s Most Conservative County is Trending Blue (part 2/2)

For part 2, i stick to mainly text (sorry, no pretty graphics this time) to describe in detail how the Democratic trends in Orange County coincide with the overall social views on LGBT rights and Abortion.

While John McCain narrowly won Orange County, a so called bastion of conservatism (In fact, other than the Central Valley and parts of North Country, Orange County is indeed the only Republican turf left in the LA Area), support for Propositions 8 and 4 (A measure making underage pregnant women have to get permission seeking an Abortion) were higher at 58 and 55%, respectively. Why the stark difference between the two? Well, if you think it has to do with self-identified Republican voters, you’re half right, follow me below the fold.

While its a certainty that some Republicans and Independents crossed over to vote for Barack Obama, they were also instrumental in passing Props 4 and 8. But another extremely significant voting group helped as well: Hispanics. I was going to make a map (like the one with presidential results earlier) showing support/opposition to these ballot initatives, but its very easy to tell where support came from. Cities like Santa Ana, a “sanctuary” city home to a large (if not, massive) Hispanic population, voted overwhelmingly for not only Obama, but for Props 4 and 8.

First, let’s look at the so called “Blue” cities, that voted for Obama but for 4 and 8, the Yes/No results show how strongly the vote was for/against using the whole county as a baseline average:

Santa Ana:

Obama/McCain: 66/32

%Hispanic: 78%

Y/N Prop 4: 62/38 (+7 YES)

Y/N Prop 8: 62/38 (+4 YES)

Anaheim:

Obama/McCain: 51/47

%Hispanic: 48%

Y/N Prop 4: 59/41 (+4 YES)

Y/N Prop 8: 61/39 (+3 YES)

Buena Park:

Obama/McCain: 52/46

%Hispanic: 35%

Y/N Prop 4: 61/39 (+6 YES)

Y/N Prop 8: 62/38 (+4 YES)

These three cities were essential for President Obama’s near-victory here, but they weren’t the only surprises on election day. Next, i look at cities that voted for John McCain, but voted against or narrowly for these propositions.

Huntington Beach:

Obama/McCain: 45/53

Y/N Prop 4: 49/51 (-6 NO)

Y/N Prop 8: 53/47 (-5 YES)

Newport Beach:

Obama/McCain: 40/58

Y/N Prop 4: 47/53 (-8 NO)

Y/N Prop 8: 51/49 (-7 YES)

Dana Point:

Obama/McCain: 47/51

Y/N: 49/51 (-6 NO)

Y/N: 51/49 (-7 YES)

Newport Beach is strongly Republican, over 50% of its registered voters are Republicans, yet it opposed Proposition 4 (thus affirming a Pro-Choice stance) and barely supported Prop 8, all-the-while giving an 18-point victory to John McCain, while Huntington and Dana Point show similar, yet slightly more favorable results on both.

What does this all mean? Well, while Hispanics are generally pro-Democratic, notice extremely carefully that they aren’t pro-Liberal, and their Catholic views on Abortion and gay rights are in line with typical social conservatives. But, there is also a “country club” force in Orange County, the fiscal hawks who are in total agreement with the Tea Partiers, but are increasingly disillusioned with the Christian-right faction of the Republican Party. To sum it up: don’t just look on the surface to find your electoral answers for these voters, you have to dig further. It’s going to be interesting what the electorate will look like come 2012.