The Alabama legislature has been known to be one of the conservative legislatures in the nation. The democrats have maintained control of both chambers continuously for over a century. That said while these democrats tend to be pretty conservative they still tend to be more populist and left leaning on certain economic issues compared to their Republican counterparts. For a state that has only voted for one democratic president(Carter) in the last 50 years, it is amazing to see the local level under so much democratic control
It looks like it will be real battle to hold both of these chambers this year. For the longest time I thought it was a miracle that this legislature has remained in democratic hands for so long. That was until I noticed that 60% of the democrats were first elected over 15 years ago some as much 30 years ago in the senate. The house is slightly better with only 40% of the dems first elected over 15 years ago.
The senate right now is barely on the Dem turf. A couple years ago back in 2007, when there were more dems in the chamber, there was a coalition of Republicans and disaffected Democrats to elect leadership that would be more favorable to Republican Gov. Riley. The coalition was barely defeated 18-17! But it showed that democrats could still muster an offensive against the republicans even in a state like Alabama. This was a decisive win for the interesting power play that had been going on in the state. The lieutenant governor serves as the president of the senate. When a republican was elected to this position the Democrats in the senate moved to transfer most of that power to their Senate president Pro-temp(who was elected by their caucus).
In the following 2008 elections (plus the special elections) Republicans continued to eat away at the Dem majority in the senate. But Jim Folsom Jr., a democrat, was elected to the position of lieutenant governor. The democrats in the senate then tried to restore much of the power back to the Lieutenant Governor (I don’t know if they were successful).The move made sense as I’m sure there enough republicans and disaffected Democrats to elect a leadership more favorable to Governor Riley this time around.
Democrats chances of holding the senate look bleak when you look at the numbers. Dems control the chamber 20-15. A mere 3 seats are all it takes to switch control. That’s not to say that the Dems can’t pick up seats. Parker Griffith for example won seat by defeating an incumbent Republican 66-34 which was an impressive result in the south( Where Dems tend to bleed more seats than win them; on top of the fact that the few seats we win, tend to be open/or have an incumbent immersed in a scandal). Griffith then resigned t o run for congress and his senate seat reverted back to republican just as his affiliation would later in the house). There seems to be a theme of a popular conservative Dems winning against republicans only to make the switch later down the road. The same thing happened with Dick Shelby( who was the last democrat to defeat a sitting republican senator). It will really come down to which incumbent democrats chose retire and the year they were first elected. The more recent they incumbent was first elected (such as mid 2000’s) the better the chance we can hold these seats.
The state house looks slightly more favorable to hold. Looking at the numbers the Dems control the chamber with a 60-45 advantage. It takes 8 seat pick-up for the Republicans to win control of this chamber. There are quite a few open seats for Democrats to defend including the current Speaker who was elected in the late 1970s. The Tennessee state house also had similar margin of control prior to the 2008 election. So nothing can be taken for granted. This chamber is as most pundits have said tossup at best.
Now why do I feel this chamber is important to control? Well mainly because the Alabama dems in the legislatures are the only thing standing between governor Riley/the republican party from having the trifecta in this state. These races along with the open governor’s race are what control the redistricting map for the next 10 years. If Bobby Bright does survive his tough race this year his next race will ultimately depend which party is in power in this state.
It ‘s only a matter of time when the republicans take over both chambers as many of the Dem legislators who were first elected in the 1970s finally retire (much like the NY Senate in reverse). A lot on who controls the chambers will depend on how well Ron sparks does in his governor’s race. His coattails could be the difference between Republican controlled of the legislature and one controlled by the Democrats. Tensions have also been high in this chamber as just a couple years ago there was a little fist fight in the senate. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
This is my first real diary. Feel free to comment and let me know if there are any discrepancies
I would definitely have concern that the Republicans could win the Senate. The Alabama Republican Party and/or Senate Caucus I would imagine will focus on the Senate during the cycle, with the House as their secondary objective. That’s how the TN Republicans achieved power. They squeezed out victory after victory in the State Senate by focusing on 1-2 races per cycle, understanding that when many of these seats flipped that the Republicans could hold them with little threat of them re-flipping.
On the House side,the AL Republican Party and/or House Caucus will undoubtedly attempt to flip 8 seats, but that’s a bigger feat than it seems unless you have 4-5 open seats that are in swing or R friendly areas. I’d say you have 2 cycles before the Republicans could be in a position to take over the House. The TN House in 2008 was 53-46, so the Rs needed 4 flips, which they were barely able to achieve in an outstanding year for TN Republicans.
If either or both chambers flip, the GOP would have very narrow majorities. The thing the Democrats have on their side here is that they’ve always been able to keep good footing at the local level. That said, I think the Democrats will retain the majority in the State House, probably losing 2-4 seats.
Isn’t the current map a dem map?