(Mostly updated for now but im heading to bed and will update the rest tomorrow, leave comments! 🙂
Senate:
Barbara Boxer faces off against Carly Fiorina, former Hewlett-Packard CEO. Already Boxer pulls out the Karl Rove playbook by using Fiorina’s business experience against her. Boxer is a very tough, hard and negative campaigner (perhaps a certain Massachusetts candidate should contact her..) and that hurts Fiorina. I think Boxer will win, more than Brown will against Whitman which is surprising since Boxer is very passionately liberal and Brown is not, but Fiorina is way too conservative for this state. Part of me wants to peg this at Likely D, but i’ll go with reality this time.
Current Status: Leans Democratic
Governor:
This race is HUGE. Not because Meg Whitman made it so with her yacht-loads of $$$, but because of the implications (Redistricting, passing a budget on time, etc) that come with it. Brown is very much a populist and isn’t afraid to ruffle feathers, and comes off as very human and likable. Can’t say the same about Whitman. Even if Housekeeper-gate (love that phrase!) goes away in the voters mind, Brown has an edge due to a large Democratic voter registration, more energized base than in other parts of the country and the overall D lean of this state. Whitman will lose, but by how much remains a battle of inches.
Current Status: Leans Democratic
Lieutenant Governor:
Not so huge as the Gov race, but will tell us if we have an all Dem statewide sweep or will it end here. Appointed LG Abel Maldonaldo faces off against San Fran Mayor Gavin Newsom. Honestly, i don’t like either. Maldo, for instance pulled an eMeg and voted against the original AB 32, the landmark climate change bill but now says Prop 23 is wrong. Newsom comes across as arrogant and at first laughed at the prospect of running for this job, and known infamously for his “Whether you like it or not (gay marriage)” comment. I think this race will end up like the last LG race, between now Congressman Garamendi and now Congressman McClintock, by single digits. I expect Newsom to win narrowly, with the Bay Area dragging him across the finish line.
Current Status: Tossup
Attorney General:
This race is really tough for me (and judging by the California posters here on SSP, hard for them as well). Between L.A DA Steve Cooley and San Fran DA Kamala Harris, there’s a stark contrast between them. Cooley supports the death penalty and Harris as D.A opposed using it against a cop-killer, that’s a big no-no if your going to be running for Attorney General. Alot of San Fran dems i’ve heard will vote for Cooley and that is really bad news. I think this race will be fought till the last vote is counted, stay up all night folks: this one is going down to the wire. I can’t even say who will be dragged across the finish line for now.
Current Status: Tossup
Secretary of State:
Debra Bowen faces off against a dude who hasn’t voted in forever (seeing shades of Whitman anyone?), named Damon Dunn. Is this even worth mentioning?
Current Status: Safe Democratic
Insurance Commissioner:
State Assemblymembers Dave Jones, the Democrat from Sacramento and Mike Villines of Clovis (Fresno County) face off. Villines is the former GOP leader in the Assembly who got the Mike Castle treatment after voting for the budget which contains some taxes. I think Jones is clearly favored, but Villines’ strength in the Central Valley will help narrow the margin quite a bit. Incumbent Steve Poizner ran against eMeg and got whopped badly so he’s not in this year.
Current Status: Likely Democratic
Controller:
Incumbent John Chiang faces off against 06′ opponent State Sen. Tony Strickland of Ventura County.
Current Status: Safe Democratic
Treasurer:
Incumbent Bill Lockyer faces off against OC State Sen. Mimi Walters.
Current Status: Safe Democratic
Superintendent of Public Instruction:
Officially it’s a non-partisan post. But the two opponents are State Assemblyman Tom Torlakson, the teacher’s union favorite against retired school Superintendent Larry Aceves, who’s in the middle of the war between charter and public schools. He surprised everyone by making second place, when State Sen Gloria Romero was considered the favorite and a charter school proponent. I like Aceves as he is a former Superintendent, but i think ultimately the voters will side with Torlakson for whatever reason.
Current Status: Leans Torlakson
The Propositions:
Prop 19 — Legalize and tax cannabis. Very contentious issue that has split the State Dem party into two factions both of whom support the measure but have differencing views on how to show support. I say it passes by a small margin.
Prop 20 — Expanding the Current citizens redistricting panel to include U.S House races as well. I oppose this, as we need more Democrats in California to make up for the bazillion seats we lose in November, but with an angry electorate you never know the result. I say it passes by a razor thin margin, much like Prop 13 in 2008.
Prop 21 — Funding State parks. Even though there really isnt an organized org against this, a ton of prominent newspapers have came out against it, like the Los Angeles Times which is very Dem-leaning in their endorsements. I fear a lot of people will buy the “oh noez its teh taxes!!1” B.S, but i still believe it passes by a good sized margin.
Prop 22 — Preventing state gov. from taking local funds from the local governments. Dunno about this one, but i think it passes by anywhere from 6-10 points.
Prop 23 — This must go down big. A stupid ploy by the oil companies/Koch bros./climate change deniers to suspend AB32 until the unemployment reaches 5.5%, a really impossible feat. I say it FAILS by 6-8%.
Prop 24 — Another MUST pass. This will repeal corporate tax breaks that the legislature passed during last year’s budget mayhem. I say it passes (even though i have lost faith in this system) by a 10 point margin.
Prop 25 — Majority vote to pass a fees or taxes. This is I say it passes by a 5-6 point margin.
Prop 26 — Takes a supermajority to raise fees/taxes. NO. We’ve seen this gridlock happen to the budget, why do we need more? It fails by a 4-5 point margin.
Prop 27 — This one is easy. Why give the legislature control of their own districts’ shape? The arguments for this Prop are extremely pathetic, and voters will see through them. I say it fails by at least 5 points or more.
Interesting Races to Note:
CA-03/AD-05:
I put these two races in the same place because they are very similar in shape and very competitive. Democrat Ami Bera is facing off against Dan Lungren in the third district, while Democrat Richard Pan faces off against “Businessman” Andy Pugno. Bera is making this race more competitive than it should for one reason: $$$. Bera has constantly out-raised the GOP incumbent and national Dems quickly got on board with the campaign. But will it be enough for him in a GOP year?
Meanwhile over in AD-05, Richard Pan can take solace over the fact that registration has dipped amongst the GOP, and Andy Pugno is no “Businessman”, more like the lawyer for Prop 8, which Pan is using against him. Pugno has outraised Pan by a small amount, and the good news for us is this is an open seat, which makes it more likely to take. This poll from the Pan campaign shows it to be a tossup but the Pugno campaign released(no actual direct link to the pollster) their poll showing Pugno ahead by 18 points, with the third party candidate netting 10%.
Current AD-05 Status: Tossup
Current CA-03 Status: Tossup
AD-10:
Here’s a race that should be on everyone’s radar. Incumbent Alyson Huber (D) faces off against her 08′ opponent Jack Sieglock. This district has 40% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 16.85% Decline to State. Obama narrowly won here, and Huber did by a razor thin 474 votes. Will the Central Valley see Huber lose? Or will her incumbency play a positive factor? On election night, if Huber loses by a lot, the Central Valley is going to be a bloodbath. Includes a part of Jerry McNerney’s CA-11 (Lodi and part of Stockton).
Current Status: Tossup
AD-15:
Includes most of Jerry McNerney’s district, and another top race in a state with very few competitive races. Incumbent Joan Buchanan also faces her 08′ opponent, San Ramon Mayor Abram Wilson. Buchanan ran for Congress last year but lost to John Garamendi, so she’s back here for re-election. 40.65% are Democrats, 36.65% are Republicans and about 20% are Decline to State, giving Buchanan a bit more comfort than her neighbor in the north has. If Buchanan loses, then McNerney will also likely fall as this district mostly has the same communities and both face top-tier opponents. I think Buchanan wins, as her East Bay district is trending more Democratic and the coat-tails provided by all three Bay Area candidates should help her.
Current Status: Leans Democratic
CA-11:
Here’s the most competitive race in California, in my opinion. Jerry McNerney is facing a tough challenge from Attorney David Harmer, who ran for congress in a neighboring district last year and got a respectable 45%. McNerney is going to feel the pain of running in 2010, as his last two re-elections were all in very Democratic years. Harmer has raised a ton, but McNerney is also catching up. McNerney touts his support for Veterans, clean energy and even the Stimulus. I expect this race to be close, but this one is definitely on my “bellwether” list.
Current Status: Tossup
AD-30:
Here’s a race where we’ll know for sure how politically bad it is in the Central Valley. Incumbent Danny Gilmore (R) is leaving after only one term, and the race is between Democrat Fran Florez, a fixture in Kern County politics versus David Valadao, a local farmer. This district has gotten an ugly reputation for dirty politics, as Florez ran here in 2008 but lost to Gilmore and some say he was helped by the endorsement of former AD-30 Assemblywoman Nicole Parra (D, now an Independent). There’s been a long feud against the Parra and Florez families, and Florez had to face Pete Parra, Nicole’s father, in the primary but easily won. Valadao’s website touts support from both Gilmore and Parra, most likely as a result of the two families feud. Even though Democrats make up 46% of the district, many are conservative and the issue of water will be huge.
Current Status: Tossup
If there’s anything that’s self-evident, it’s that requiring a super-majority to pass a budget has been calamitous for California. So why would it pass by such a relatively close margin? In other words, who’s opposed to it, and why?
Rundown of California races. I might suggest putting the Lieutenant Governor race at Leans Democratic though because Newsom has been consistently leading by about 5 points which is usually enough for Lean Democratic.
Also, another mistake Whitman made was trying to soften herself up. People saw how soft she was when her workers talked about her. She should have campaigned as someone who will take on the legislature but maybe she thought people would remember how Schwarzenegger campaigned in 2003 and how “taking on the girly men” did not work.
Also, as an avid hiker, I am a big proponent of Prop 21 so I am glad that you think it will pass. Also, it has gotten most of the smaller newspapers to endorse it including a few Central Valley ones.
Also, I have seen polls showing Props 25 and 26 passing by larger margins but when the Republican groups spend their money, I guess the margins will get narrower.
Great rundown overall!
You got prop 26 dead wrong. It does two things:
1. Treats fee increases as tax increases in the sense that it will now take a 2/3 vote of each house of the legislature to pass one.
2. Will change the 2/3 requirement for tax increases so now they will need a 2/3 vote even for a bill that is a net tax cut if any individual taxpayer in the state suffers a tax increase as a result. In other words, it will almost preclude a revenue-neutral tax reform that closes loopholes.
I voted no. I have absolutely had it with supermajorities.
Several SSP commenters (including me) have counted 17 incumbents of both parties in California that need to go…
about CA-11 since I live in the same TV market as parts of McNerney’s district (I saw an attack ad from him 2 years ago), McNerney’s key to victory is running up the margins in Alameda, Contra Costa, and Santa Clara portions of his district and keeping it relatively close in San Joaquin part of the district which will have the bulk of the votes.
And I glad because my numbers and my rates for the other races tell just the same than you. I have Leans Democratic for Insurance Commissioner. Just the lack of polls (I know not no-one) for this race make it be very interesting for me at this point.
For Superintendent of Public Instruction, I feel safer, because both candidates are non partisan democrats 🙂 Then this race would be Safe non partisan democrat.
About the senate and the gubernatorial races, I think both start to flirt with a Likely Democratic rating, and I think both can become Likely Democratic in the last days of the campaign.
I think would be very important win the races for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General. If Maldonado defeat Newsom (the second in the democratic primary for governor this year) he can become a dangerous candidate for governor and for senate. Feinstein, Boxer and Brown are veteran politicians what will not be long time in office. And the same about Cooley in the race for Attorney General. I would not like Maldonado or Cooley win.
is commendable. What is the difference between a killer and a cop killer. I mean really? Is there or should there be a difference in human life?
I appreciate the effort you put into this and I largely agree, but Prop 21 is going to fail. It’s a “car tax” and those are toxic here – remember, Arnold used it to great effect in 2003. Where do you think its “good sized margin” will come from?
I’ll stick by each and every one of my immediate post-primary rankings.