This is a scenario if Republicans were to win the state House, this is a probable map since they already control the State Senate. (I’m pretty sure the legislature does this, or is it a commission?)
UPDATE: New proposed Columbus map in the comments (sorry mods if its too big!!), creating a safe Columbus (60%+ Obama, 200,000 African Americans) district and a likely Republican suburb district.
Cincinatti area:
OH-01:
Hamilton, Cincinatti suburbs
Steve Driehaus (D)*
Adds more Republican Butler County (avoiding West Chester, where Boehner lives) and loses all of the heavily black parts of Cincinatti (much like how Columbus’ district are already). Driehaus is D.O.A here, but he could run in the 3rd district, where the black parts of Cincinatti are in Jean Schmidt’s district. Eitherway, this district is a Republican one.
OH-02:
Middletown, Troy, West Chester
John Boehner (R)
Warps around Dayton, but still extremely Republican. Minority (or Majority) Leader Boehner is safe.
OH-03:
Most of Cincinatti, Portsmouth
Jean Schmidt (R)
Schmidt is screwed. That’s putting it nicely. If she only ecks out single-digit wins in an extremely conservative district, she won’t win here with all the new African-Americans in the district. I’m guessing Steve Dreihaus would run here, and the Republican gerrymander actually helps him surprisingly.
OH-04:
Dayton, Kettering, Springfield
Michael Turner (R)
Turner keeps his Dayton-area base and expands to Springfield via Fairborn in Greene County. Also takes Mary Jo Kilroy’s Madison and Union counties. Safe.
OH-05:
Lancaster, Beavercreek, Zanesville
Steve Austria (R)
Austria’s district expands to take in two of Zack Space’s most visible cities, Zanesville and Chillicothe.
OH-06:
Western Columbus and suburbs Most of Columbus
Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
Kilroy is probably slightly more safer, as ultra-conservative Union and Madison counties are out of her district and is entirely within Franklin County. Her race is still a toss-up to me though. Yeah nevermind, by making Kilroy safe, we also keep Pat Tiberi safe as well, which helps the GOP actually. Obama probably took in 64% in this district, so Kilroy can live another day. Now with exactly 200,161 African Americans!
OH-07:
Eastern Columbus, Delaware, Mount Vernon North and Eastern Columbus suburbs
Pat Tiberi (R)
What do you get when you combine extremely Republican counties outside of Columbus and the African-American heavy parts of Columbus? A swing district, like this one. Slightly a bit more African-American, Tiberi is still safe. Centered around Columbus makes Tiberi a whole lot safer, even if it helps another Democrat.
OH-08:
Lima, Findlay, Defiance
Jim Jordan (R)
Still the most conservative district in Ohio. Nothing to see here.
OH-09:
Bowling Green, Mansfield, Fremont
Bob Latta (R)
Mostly unchanged but expands into the Mansfield-area. Safe.
OH-10:
Toledo, Lorain, part of Elyria
Marcy Kaptur (D)
Expands to take in Lorain and parts of Elyria, safe for Kaptur.
OH-11:
Massilion, Kent, part of Elyria
Betty Sutton (D)
This district takes in Medina County and loses most of Akron. If this district was to be implemented, Sutton would probably lose this year. Republican pickup.
OH-12:
Canton, Athens, New Philadelphia
Zack Space (D) vs John Boccieri (D) vs Charlie Wilson? (D)
WesternEastern Ohio’s population is dropping…fast. This district goes from Canton and swirvs its way down to Athens. Zack Space and John Boccieri both live here, but Charlie Wilson lives just right outside the boundaries but this area is still his. Who would win here? I’m guessing Wilson, but if he doesn’t run here i’d go with Space. Sorry John.
OH-13:
Youngstown, Steubenville, Warren
Tim Ryan (D) vs Charlie Wilson? (D)
This is where Charlie Wilson lives but most of this area is represented by Tim Ryan. Ryan is moderate enough for this district, so Wilson is in a predictament here.
OH-14:
Western Cleveland, part of Elyria
Dennis Kucinich (D)
Mostly the same but goes into Lorain County to pickup votes.
OH-15:
Eastern Cleveland, most of Akron
Marcia Fudge (D)
Here’s the district which bugged me the most. I’m not sure if it HAS to be majority-black, but i kept it that way anyways. stretches into Akron to take in African-American votes.
OH-16:
Mentor, Ashtabula, part of Akron
Steven LaTourette (R)
Slightly more Democratic due to the presence of Akron. LaTourette is still safe though.
More pictures:
Breakdown:
OH-01, OH-02, OH-04, OH-05, OH-07, OH-08, OH-09, OH-11,OH-16: Republican Seats
OH-03 (if Schmidt runs): Tossup seats
OH-10, OH-12, OH-13, OH-14, OH-15: Democratic Seats
6 Democratic Seats
1 Tossup seats
9 Republican Seats
If Schmidt doesn’t run:
10 Republican Seats
6 Democratic Seats
First redistricting diary, tell me what you think 🙂 (And no, i am not and will not do California. As much as i love my state, its too large and the precincts are annoying…Yes i’m talking to you Santa Clara and Kern Counties.)
eastern oh is losing population
It’s hard to tell without presidential numbers, but I think the 11th stays Democratic. The 6th definitely stays Democratic, unless the gray part of Franklin county is much more Democratic than the rest. So that’s 7 Democrats. Down from the 10 we have now. It’s almost the best the Republicans can hope for.
You could eliminate one more Democratic district – the 12th. Make the 11th a safe district – move it out of Medina and into Tuscarawas. Then the 12th is entirely south of Tuscarawas. Add some inland counties and it’s a Republican district. That would make 6 the lowest number of Democrats possible.
I don’t think the Republicans would cede a Columbus-area seat. I also don’t think they’d sacrifice Jean Schmidt, even if another Republican would probably win OH-03 in two years.
Here’s a Republican gerrymander of Ohio I did:
It only guarantees the Dems four seats (the two Cleveland seats, the Youngstown-based one, and the spindly teal one along Lake Erie). It’s really hard to gerrymander some of these seats without them looking ridiculous, given that three or four Republicans all live in the Dayton area.
Where are you getting the tool to draw these maps?
I actually think the GOP is going to try and force Kucinich out and draw a GOP district that encompasses the western Cleveland suburbs. The whole of Akron would move into Tim Ryan’s district and Sutton would be forced to choose between the two.