DE-Sen: A little background

People here on SSP seem a little shocked that Christine O’Donnell could possibly be leading Mike Castle in the latest PPP poll of that race.

Here’s the diary just for convenience sake:

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

The conventional wisdom is that everyone loves Mike Castle, but having spent a considerable amount of time in Sussex County, DE myself, I never once doubted O’Donnell’s chances. I’d like to reprint a comment I wrote a week or so ago in response to a different DE-Sen diary:

My grandmother lives in Delaware

I think she likes Castle because he’s been around for so long. Plus she’s voting Republican this year for the first time because she’s mad about all the Hispanics being in Southern Delaware (she’s old, okay lol).

Only problem for Castle though is that she’s still a registered Democrat. I’m sure a good deal of his support comes from moderate Democrats like her (who are probably less racist but still like her). This is the Republican primary, so people like her won’t get to vote; this hurts Castle a lot.

According to the state of Delaware BOE, as of last month the breakdown statewide looked like this:

47% Dem

29% Rep

24% Indie/Other

In New Castle County, which has 62% of the voters in the state, the numbers were:

50% Dem

26% Rep

24% Indie

Only 55% of registered Republicans in Delaware live in New Castle County, compared to 62% of all voters and 66% of all Democratic voters. Therefore, the Dems are much more likely to select someone who’s acceptable and mainstream in New Castle County. Though a majority of Republican voters still live in New Castle County, a certain percentage of those voters are really conservative despite living in such a liberal county. Combined with the really conservative voters in South Delaware (Sussex County), who a few years ago actually ran a girl out of town (literally) for being liberal and Jewish and suing the school district for handing out Bibles in school, and you might be able to get a majority, especially with emotions running high on the far right this year.

The real trick for the O’Donnell campaign is to convince these conservative voters that she’s the real deal. If she can do that, then she does have a chance.

I ran the most recent registration numbers in Excel before I wrote that comment just to make sure that I was right in suggesting that the Republican base is South Delaware-based enough to throw the election to O’Donnell. Although the majority of Delaware GOP voters are in New Castle County, an extremely energized South Delaware electorate could overtake New Castle County’s GOP electorate.

Now, some of you may be wondering why South Delaware would be so conservative when Delaware is known for its moderates. The answer is simple: South Delaware is very rural, and the areas that aren’t rural are full of elderly retirees like my grandmother. Sussex County, Delaware is sort of the Florida of Baltimore/Philly/DC. New York retirees go to Palm Beach County, FL, while Mid-Atlantic retirees go to Sussex County, DE. Visit South Delaware, and you’ll see miles of pre-fab homes primarily inhabited by elderly retirees.

Now, Sussex County did almost vote for Obama, but this is likely because of 3 factors: 1) Sizable black and Hispanic populations. 2) Large gay/lesbian population in Rehoboth Beach, and 3) Sizable number of federal workers (mostly attorneys) who have come because of all the multinational corporations that get brought to trial in the Sussex County court system. Obviously none of these groups will be voting in the closed Republican primary on Tuesday.

Instead, what you’ll see is the onslaught of South Delaware’s well-hidden conservative masses. In my comment I talked about a girl in Southern Delaware who was run out of town for being Jewish a few years ago. You can read that story here: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07… . Here are a few choice quotes:

After the graduation, Mrs. Dobrich asked the Indian River district school board to consider prayers that were more generic and, she said, less exclusionary. As news of her request spread, many local Christians saw it as an effort to limit their free exercise of religion, residents said. Anger spilled on to talk radio, in letters to the editor and at school board meetings attended by hundreds of people carrying signs praising Jesus.

After receiving several threats, Mrs. Dobrich took her son, Alex, to Wilmington in the fall of 2004, planning to stay until the controversy blew over. It never has.

The Dobriches eventually sued the Indian River School District, challenging what they asserted was the pervasiveness of religion in the schools and seeking financial damages. They have been joined by “the Does,” a family still in the school district who have remained anonymous because of the response against the Dobriches.

Meanwhile, a Muslim family in another school district here in Sussex County has filed suit, alleging proselytizing in the schools and the harassment of their daughters.

A homemaker active in her children’s schools, Mrs. Dobrich said she had asked the board to develop policies that would leave no one feeling excluded because of faith. People booed and rattled signs that read “Jesus Saves,” she recalled. Her son had written a short statement, but he felt so intimidated that his sister read it for him. In his statement, Alex, who was 11 then, said: “I feel bad when kids in my class call me ‘Jew boy.’ I do not want to move away from the house I have lived in forever.”

Christine O’Donnell on socialism

Watch that video and tell me who you think connects more with these voters – the shrill McCarthyistic O’Donnell, or the moderate, respectable (read “liberal elitist”) Castle. Come Tuesday, the most important things to look for will be the relative turnout – South DE vs. North DE, and the margins from all 3 counties. I think O’Donnell easily takes Sussex and Kent Counties, while Castle easily takes New Castle County. The only question remaining is by what margin they take these counties.