Tag: PA-05

That the Northeast has been trending blue in recent cycles is self evidently true. Will it continue in 2010?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

Whilst current polls don’t look too good for incumbent Democrats across the Northeast I believe that we have hit the bottom. Now that Health Care reform is done I believe that the polls will rebound for Democrats, particularly in the Northeast.

Thus it is my contention that despite the current challenging environment the Northeast will continue its long term move towards the Democratic Party, despite a sure to be spiteful debate on cap and trade and despite an economic outlook that is improving in fits and starts.

The US Census defines the Northeast region as including 9 states as follows: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. And aggregating across all 9 states the lay of the land looks like this:

States that voted for Obama: 9/9

Governors: 5/9

US Senators: 15/18 (Counting Sanders and Leiberman as Dems)

House Districts: 69/83

State Senates: 8/9

State Houses: 9/9

Where I think a race is a safe Democratic hold I won’t be saying anything about it.

Going state by state then:

Connecticut

Gubernatorial – With GOP Gov Jodi Rell not running again it is very likely to be a Dem pickup.

US Senate – Both Dems. If Dodd runs he may lose for any other Dem it is a safe hold.

US House – All Dem, all Safe (including Himes in the 4th.)

State Senate – 24D/12R – Safe

State House – 114D/37R – Safe

Maine

Gubernatorial – Whilst it seems that half of Maine is running for the open Gubernatorial mansion I believe that the Democratic nature of the state will lead to a Democratic retention.

US Senate – Both Repubs! Not on ballot in 2010

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 20D/15R – Safe (Margin is growing).

State House – 95D/55R – Safe

Massachusetts –

Gubernatorial – Whilst Deval Patrick really hasn’t set the world on fire the 2nd tier nature of his potential opponents should see him safely re-elected.

US Senate – Both Dems (at least after the upcoming special election.)

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 35D/5R – Safe

State House – 144D/16R – Safe

New Hampshire

Gubernatorial – Safe Dem

US Senate – definitely a race to watch. I will be stunned if Hodes loses here. Hodes has almost $1 million dollars COH and there is a divisive GOP primary in the offing also. New Hampshire, whilst less Blue than almost all of the other states in the North East, is not going to elect a Republican as US Senator in 2010.

US House –

NH-01 – There has been a lot of focus on both of the New Hampshire congressional races. I don’t get it to be honest – Shea Porter will win, not by much but she will win.

NH-02 – Again a lot of focus here including a lot of hand wringing about how vulnerable it is to switch. Not gonna happen folks. Gore, Kerry and Obama all won this district – Obama by 13 points – and we have a quality field of candidates  running AND a divisive GOP Primary. Lead Dem Ann McLane Kuster has 250K COH as at the end of September.

State Senate – 14/10 – No change in 2008 really locks in our 2006 gains. If this one flips it will be a bad night for us.

State House – 223D/176R – Safe

New Jersey

Gubernatorial – Repub – Not on ballot in 2010

US Senate – Both Dems

US House –

NJ-02 – If State Senator Jeff Van Drew finally steps up and runs this race becomes very competitive. Hopefully he won’t wait until 2012. If State Sen Jim Whelan runs it could also get competitive in this district that Obama won 54/45 and that Bush won by less than 1% in 2004.

NJ-03 – Adler is safe.

NJ-04 – Gore carried this district and Obama lost 47/52 so a good candidate here is a must to get it on the radar instead of the second tier candidates we have run thus far.

NJ-05 – Unlikely to be on the radar in 2010.

NJ-07 – This district is winnable particularly with a freshman GOP incumbent. Obama carried it 51/48 also. Surprising then that there is no declared Dem candidate yet. Potentially a top tier race that will probably be a big miss for the DCCC.

NJ-11 – The safest GOP district in NJ and a rarity in the Northeast, (outside Pennsylvania,) a generically safe GOP district. Short of a fantastic candidate this one won’t be on the radar.

State Senate – Up in 2011

State House – Up in 2011

New York

Gubernatorial – Safe for Cuomo.

US Senate – Gillibrand will get over the line against 3rd tier opponents and Schumer is Safe too.

US House –

NY-03 – Unless Suozzi or another top tier candidate emerges then this will be a big miss for the DCCC.

NY-13 – McMahon is safe.

NY-20 – Murphy will prevail – bet on it. He had almost 1 Mill COH at the end of September!

NY-23 – One of two really competitive races in Dem held districts in NY. I think Owens will prevail, especially against Hoffman.

NY-24 – After a scare in 2008 Arcuri will be safe.

NY-25 – Maffei is safe.

NY-26 – Unless a good candidate pops up this will be a big miss for the DCCC.

NY-29 – Massa has his work cut out for him – that’s for sure. But for me Massa by a nose. Why? When was the last time the NY GOP won a District off us? Massa’s 500K COH as at end of September will help too.

State Senate – 32D/30R – A chamber to watch – big time. I expect us to hang onto or increase our majority.

State House – 109D/41R – Safe

Pennsylvania

Gubernatorial – A real worry this one could flip.

US Senate – 2 Dems – Whoever emerges from the Dem primary will beat Toomey. The good folk of Pennsylvania wouldn’t be crazy enough to sent Toomey to the US Senate would they?

US House –

PA-03 – Dahlkemper will have her work cut out to win this District that Obama JUST lost. Race to watch.

PA-04 – Altmire will be safe.

PA-05 – This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans.

PA-06 – Generic Dem beats generic Rep – Period. Doug Pike’s massive COH advantage (largely self funded) of 750K as at end of September should help him pull this one out.  

PA-07 – Not quite sure why so many people are predicting this will flip. Top tier candidates for both parties makes for a tough race but this district was won by Gore, Kerry and Obama. Add in a competitive GOP Primary and it is Dem for me.

PA-09 – One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans. This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. Yep just like PA-05.

PA-11 – Against Lou Barletta Kanjorski will be fine. Tough part of Pennsylvania for Democrats though.

PA-12 – Murtha is vulnerable but i expect him to survive (just).

PA-15 – Like PA-06 Obama carried every county in this one and yep it is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Dem Callahan is a top tier challenger and is fundraising like one (325K COH as at end of Spetember).

PA-16 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th and 9th unlikely to be a priority.

PA-18 – In theory could be vaguely competitive in 2010 (Bush only got 54% here in 2004) but unlikely given the low hanging fruit in the 6th and 15th.

PA-19 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th, 6th and 16th unlikely to be a priority in 2010, unless Todd Platts lands the Government job he is chasing. Even then unlikely to be competitive.

State Senate – 20D/30R – Safe GOP

State House – 104D/99R – Definitely a chamber to watch.

Rhode Island

Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Don Carcieri is term limited so either a Dem or former Repub Sen now Indy Lincoln Chaffee will be elected. The GOP bench here is terrible.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 35D/5R Safe

State House – 69D/6R Safe

Vermont

Gubernatorial – With GOP Gov Douglas not running the GOP have scored their best possible candidate in Lt Gov Brian Dubie; who will lose to a Dem (unless the Progressive Party act as a spoiler).

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 28D/7R Safe

State House – 95D/48R Safe

So with 10 months until election day it is off to the races!

What do you think?

A very special morning edition of the Daily Digest!

• IA-Sen: The Des Moines Register’s Marc Hansen teases that “a well-known mystery candidate” with “name recognition and money” is “about 75 percent ready to join the race” against deather douchebag GOPer Chuck Grassley. The Politico’s Charles Mahtesian speculates that the mystery candidate could be none other than Dem Rep. Bruce Braley. Color me skeptical.

• IL-10: NRCC recruitment wiz kid Kevin McCarthy parachuted himself into the Chicagoland area on Saturday in order to survey the recruitment progress in race to defend GOP Rep. Mark Kirk’s open seat. He met with a small batch of prospects, including stock market analyst Dick Green, attorney Bill Cadigan (a former staffer for ex-Rep. Jon Porter, who held the 10th District for two decades prior to Kirk), and businessman Bob Dold. Interestingly, that list didn’t include any of the district’s deep bench of Republican state legislators. I’m not sure if we should read that as a tea leaf that state Rep. Beth Coulson may not be serious about running, but it appears that the GOP is preparing for the prospect of defending this seat with a political newcomer.

• IN-03: Talk about taking one for the team. Former Fort Wayne city councilman Tom Hayhurst, an M.D. who gave GOP Rep. Mark Souder the closest shave of his political life in 2006, has filed papers for a rematch in 2010. Hayhurst lost to Souder by a 54-46 margin that year — a pretty impressive showing given the district’s horrid R+14 bent. But after Souder pasted well-funded attorney Mike Montagano in 2008 by 15 points, it’s hard to see how the good doctor has a shot in hell here. Godspeed, sir.

• FL-08: Here’s some good news for frosh Dem Rep. Alan Grayson. Larry Cretul, the Republican Speaker of the Florida House, has decided against challenging the former beardo next year. The GOP still has a number of options here, including state Rep. Stephen Precourt and Orlando Mayor Rich Crotty.

Precourt, for his part, told the St. Petersburg Times that he may be interested in a bid, but sounds supportive of state Sen. Dan Webster, should he choose to run. More from Precourt:

“I am a big fan of Senator Dan Webster, but am keeping my powder dry for now. It seems best to stand back and let Congressman Grayson self destruct for the time being, as he is doing quite a good job of it.”

Precourt may have been referring to Grayson’s legislative priorities, but he could have just as easily been alluding to the congressman’s, uh, relaxed style of speech. During a Netroots Nation panel in Pittsburgh on Friday, Grayson decided to yuk it up by saying his 2008 opponent, GOP Rep. Ric Keller, “did all his hiring at Hooters”. He went on to relate an anecdote about how one of his “more resourceful” supporters posed as a volunteer at his opponent’s campaign headquarters for several days, and reported back that “they spent all their time flying paper clips at each other and watching porn on their computers.”

• MN-Gov: It’s no surprise, but Minnesota House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, a Democrat, formally threw her hat into the extremely crowded gubernatorial race on Thursday.

• MO-04: It looks like longtime Dem Rep. Ike Skelton, who’s been manning the fort for us in this R+14 district since Baby Jesus was riding dinosaurs to school, is going to have an honest-to-God race on his hands in 2010. GOP state Sen. Bill Stouffer, whose district overlaps some of the 4th’s northern counties, filed his statement of candidacy with the FEC last week. Stouffer will face a primary from fundie-flavored ex-state Rep. Vicky Hartzler.

• NC-Sen: With NC SoS Elaine Marshall officially still on the fence, the DSCC isn’t sitting idly by to wait for her decision. Former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker, who lost the 2000 Democratic gubernatorial primary to Mike Easley, says that he’s had conversations with the DSCC and ex-Gov. Jim Hunt about challenging GOP Sen. Richard Burr, and will consider his options. I’d say that Democrats had better lock up either Marshall or Wicker before they realize how ugly 2010 is going to be for Team Blue.

• NV-Sen: Wanna run against Harry Reid (and win)? It really doesn’t appear to be that daunting of a task if you believe the spurt of Republican polls in the past few days. Hot on the heels of a poll showing NV GOP Chair Susan Lowden smacking Reid by an six-point margin, two-time political loser Danny Tarkanian is out with a poll from Chariot, LLC (never heard of ’em) showing him beating Reid by a 50-42 spread.

But before we leave it at that, I just want to briefly touch on this howler from Reno Gazette-Journal reporter Anjeanette Damon:

It was an automated poll, meaning a recorded voice asked respondents to express their preference by pushing a number on their phone. These polls, while inexpensive to run, are not regarded as the most accurate method of obtaining survey results.

Maybe this poll is bunk, but I’m getting pretty tired of journalists who can’t bother to, at the bare minimum, take five minutes to review Nate’s pollster ratings. Or as Tom Jensen recently lamented:

I think there should be a required J School course for all aspiring political journalists on how to truly understand polling, the different methodologies, and the different organizations. I’d put pretty high up on the list that they should learn to look up and analyze the track records of various organizations instead of judging them on hearsay and other subjective criteria.

If only.

• NY-Gov: The Q&Q Polling Factory is out with the n-thousandth poll showing Democratic Gov. David Paterson in comically bad shape. Pitted in a primary against AG Andrew Cuomo, Paterson now loses by a 61-15 margin, down from a 57-20 loss in June. In a general election against Rudy Giuliani, Paterson loses 53-33, while Cuomo leads by 48-39. The numbers scream for themselves.

• PA-05: SSP extends our condolences to the family and friends of Bill Cahir, who was killed while on duty in Afghanistan late last week. Cahir, as you may remember, ran a very respectable campaign for the Democratic nomination in Pennsylvania’s 5th District last year, losing a three-way race to Mark McCracken.

• TX-Gov: In a bit of a let-down for Texas activists, Austin-area state Sen. Kirk Watson, seen as a rising star in the TX Democratic Party, announced on Friday that he’ll be seeking re-election to the state senate rather than entering the gubernatorial primary, which is already populated by the likes of Tom Schieffer and Kinky Friedman.

We had a pretty good night on election night in the Northeast. We cleaned house. We nailed 1 GOP Senator, 6 House of Reps Districts, 1 State Senate and held on to all of the State Senates, State Houses, US House Reps and US Senators we had coming into this cycle.

That the Northeast is rapidly realigning towards team Blue is undeniable!

But the work my friends has merely begun. Forget the bunkum about us being irretrievably on defense in 2010 come below the fold to see who should be in our sights in 2010 as we stay on offense in the Northeast……..

Just to avoid any debate, (and because I got it wrong last time I tried this) the US Census defines the Northeast region as including 9 states as follows: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. And aggregating across all 9 states the lay of the land looks like this:

States that voted for Obama: 9/9

Governors: 6/9

US Senators: 14/18 (Counting Sanders and Leiberman as Dems)

House Districts: 68/83

State Senates: 8/9

State Houses: 9/9

Where I think a race is a safe Democratic hold I won’t be saying much about it such as all of our Northeast US Senators and US House races on the ballot in 2010.

Going state by state then:

Connecticut

Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Jodi Rell is quite popular and will likely be looking for a 3rd term. OTOH the Dem bench is VERY deep and a top tier challenger should be able to be found. Problem is who would want to take on such a popular pol?

US Senate – Both Dems (Hey Lieberman isn’t up for re-election in 2010 Dodd is.)

US House – ALL OURS BABY! – Keep an eye on CT-04

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzz

Maine

Gubernatorial – Dem John Baldacci probably won’t run again which on balance makes this gubernatorial chamber an easier hold for us than otherwise. The only possible exception to this is if either of the GOP US Senators run – a highly unlikely thing to happen.

US Senate – Both Repubs! Not on ballot in 2010

US House – ALL OURS BABY!

State Senate – We actually added to our margin here in 2008 moving it from 18/17 to 20/15 and yep they are all up again in 2010. A chamber to watch but we should be ok in this increasingly reliable state.

State House – zzzzzzzzzz

Massachusetts – aka nothing to see here move right along!

Gubernatorial – zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

US Senate – Both Dems zzzzzzzzzzzz

US House – ALL OURS BABY! zzzzzzzzzzzzz

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzzzz

New Hampshire

Gubernatorial – If Dem Gov Lynch runs he will win. If, as I hope, Lynch runs for the Senate then look for 2nd CD Rep Hodes to run and win for team Blue instead. My how New Hampshire has quickly shifted to us.

US Senate – 1 Dem 1 Rep and the Rep is on the ballot – Judd Gregg. Gregg has a target on his back already and I expect either Gov Lynch or Rep Hodes to run and for this one to be a barn burner.

US House – ALL OURS BABY! – Keep an eye on NH-01

State Senate – No change in 2008 really locks in our 2006 gains.

State House – Nothing really to see here we held onto almost all of our 2006 gains, dropping from 231 to 225 out of 400 we will hang onto this one in 2010 IMHO.

New Jersey

Gubernatorial – On ballot in 2009 (Go Corzine). Any Dem would be favoured to win this one as NJ residents hate all their pols they just hate Democrats less than Republicans.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House –

NJ-02 – If State Senator Jeff Van Drew finally steps up and runs this race becomes very competitive. Hopefully he won’t wait until 2012. If State Sen Jim Whelan runs it could also get competitive in this district that I suspect Obama won and that Bush won by less than 1% in 2004. Will have a Cook Dem PVI.

NJ-04 – Gore carried this district and I think Obama only just fell short so a good candidate here is a must to get it on the radar instead of the second tier candidates we have run thus far.

NJ-05 – Gee I hope 2008 Dem candidate Dennis Shulman runs again in 2010. Holding a GOP incumbent to 56% in this reasonably strong GOP district is a fair effort. Otherwise this one won’t be on the radar in 2010.

NJ-07 – I don’t know what happened here this year but a top tier candidate who is NOT Linda Stender is required. This district is winnable particulalrly with a freshman GOP incumbent. I think Obama carried it also.

NJ-11 – The safest GOP district in NJ and a rarity in the Northeast, (outside Pennsylvania,) a generically safe GOP district. Short of a fantastic candidate this one won’t be on the radar.

Keep an eye on NJ-03.

State Senate – Up in 2011

State House – Up in 2009 zzzzzzzzzz

New York

Gubernatorial – zzzzzzzzzzz – Name one GOPper who could be elected statewide? – exactly.

US Senate – Both Dems. Despite Hillary’s appointment as SOS this one will be held by whichever Dem is appointed IMHO.

US House –

NY-03 – Pete King is genuinely popular in his district and we should be hoping that the rumours of him making a gubernatorial run turn out to be true. Otherwise we really do need a top tier candidate here – paging Tom Suozzi – but that is unlikely unless the seat is Open.

NY-23 – I expect McHugh to retire in 2010; call it a hunch. If so we will easily find a top tier candidate here otherwise McHugh is perceived as unbeatable.

NY-26 – Democrats in this District just got it wrong in the Primary and we need a top tier candidate against a freshman incumbent who only got 55% first time at bat.

Keep an eye on Dem incumbents in NY-24, NY-25 and NY-29.

State Senate – Yep we have just won control of this chamber for the first time in like 3 million years. It should be 32/30 or maybe 33/29 with one race still undecided. With them all up again in 2010 we need to look for GOP State Senators who are in heavily Democratic areas of NYC and unlikely to run again as they are now free of the influence of Joe Bruni (R-thug) who kept a number of GOP Senators in place long after they wanted to retire.

I think the following are potentially competitive races as open, specials or vulnerable incumbents in 2010:

NY SS-06 – GOP incumbent won with 51.5% of the vote in 2008.

NY SS-11 – Race still undecided if Repub incumbent wins it will be by less than 1000 votes.

NY SS-22 – GOP incumbent in heart of blue NYC.

NY SS-42 – GOP incumbent rumoured to be retiring mid-term.

NY SS-44 – GOP incumbent rumoured to be retiring mid-term.

NY SS-56 – GOP incumbent won with 52.2% of the vote.

NY SS-61 – GOP incumbent won with 53.5% of the vote.

Not to mention that an additional 4 or 5 GOP State Senators will be older than 70 in 2010.

State House – zzzzzzzzzzz

Pennsylvania

Gubernatorial – This one might get complicated. Dem Gov Ed Rendell is term limited and Dem Lt Gov Catherine Baker Knoll has just sadly passed away thus making State Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati the new Lt Gov and he is a Republican. Deep bench on our side including Senator Bob Casey? It goes without saying that the Repubs will have a top tier candidate also. This race makes me nervous as Pennsylvania is less reliably blue than any other state in the North East.

US Senate – 1 of ours (Casey), 1 of theirs (Specter) who is up in 2010. It has been suggested to me that Specter coud be approached to switch which would be fine by me but failing that we have a deep bench and this is a must win if we are to continue the blueing of the Northeast. Specter may yet decide to retire in which case we really are in the box seat for this race.

US House –

PA-05 – This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans.

PA-06 – As probably the single biggest recruiting miss of 2008 this one is infuriating. Gerlach was held to 52% by a 3rd tier candidate and Obama won every county that this district covers. It is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Probably the highest priority house race for the DCCC on offense in the Northeast (open seats notwithstanding).

PA-09 – One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans. This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. Yep just like PA-05.

PA-15 – Like PA-06 Obama carried every county in this one and yep it is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Disappointing 41% for 2008 Dem candidate means we need a top tier challenger here ASAP.

PA-16 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th and 9th unlikely to be a priority.

PA-18 – In theory could be vaguely competitive in 2010 (Bush only got 54% here in 2004) but unlikely given the low hanging fruit in the 6th and 15th.

PA-19 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th, 6th and 16th unlikely to be a priority in 2010.

Watch Dem incumbents in PA-03 and PA-11.

State Senate – The only State chamber still controlled by the GOP in the Northeast. We actually went backwards there this year dropping from 21/28/1 to 20/29/1. And with only half of the State Senate up every two years this one is a hard one to flip in 2010. However the following should probably be targetted IMHO, particularly if they are open races:

PA SS-06 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 53.4% in 2006.

PA SS-10 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.5% in 2006.

PA SS-12 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-16 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 54.2% in 2006.

PA SS-20 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-24 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-26 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 52.2% in 2006.

PA SS-44 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-50 – Incumbent got 53.5% in 2006.

Now I am not suggesting that every State Senate race here will be competitive in 2010 as I understand that Blue counties can have Red parts, but if the Red parts of NYC can be turned then Red parts of Blue counties in PA can be turned also.

State House – In 2008 we managed to increase our margin of control from 102/101 to 104/99; still far too close for comfort. Vulnerable Repubs include:

PA SH-4 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-13 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-15 – Incumbent got 51.5% in 2008.

PA SH-18 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-26 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-28 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-29 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-30 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-31 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-44 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-57 – Incumbent got 51.6% in 2008.

PA SH-61 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-70 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-75 – Incumbent got 53.3% in 2008.

PA SH-102 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-104 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-105 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-106 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-128 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.8% in 2008.

PA SH-129 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-131 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-134 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-138 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-142 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.7% in 2008.

PA SH-146 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 53.3% in 2008.

PA SH-150 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-152 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-155 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-157 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-158 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-160 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-162 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-163 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-164 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-165 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-167 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-168 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-169 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-170 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-172 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-176 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-177 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-178 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-183 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-187 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 52.3% in 2008.

Now I am not suggesting that every State House race here will be competitive in 2010 as I understand that Blue counties can have Red parts, particularly given that State House districts are so small, but if the Red parts of NYC can be turned then Red parts of Blue counties in PA can be turned also. Yep the same thinking that applies to the PA State Senate.

Rhode Island

Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Don Carcieri is term limited! With a bench a mile deep we should be a lock to pick this one up as the GOP bench is almost non existent.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – ALL OURS BABY!

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzz

Vermont

Gubernatorial – If GOP Gov Jim Douglas runs he wins I think. However if he runs for the Senate then we should win here EXCEPT for one nasty wrinkle. In Vermont the Progrssive Party frequently run in statewide races which not only splits the left of centre vote but often allows Republicans to get elected. Surely an accomodation must be able to be found to allow us to have a decent shot at this one in 2010. OTOH GOP Lt Gov Brian Dubie is almost the only statewide candidate that the GOP could present and he could make a race of it.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – ALL OURS BABY!

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzzz

What do you think?

There really isn’t a lot left to say as we head into the final 24 hours of the campaign.  First, and most important, Kelly, Amanda and I want to thank everyone who has helped in any way with the campaign.  The one thing I will take away from this experience, regardless of the outcome on Tuesday, is the people I’ve met, the communities I’ve visited and the stories we’ve shared.

It has also been encouraging how many people have stepped up over the last 2 weeks to help with donations to the campaign.  Once our opponent got desperate and decided to go negative there were many people and organizations who stepped up and sent in late donations.  These late donations allowed us to expand our media advertising and create a second TV ad to combat the distortions coming from our opponent’s campaign.  

I think once they realized they offered no ideas or solutions for the 5th district, the only way they could win was to trot out the usual wedge issues and scare the voters into thinking I’m someone that I’m not.  Now we know how Barack Obama feels.

I want to close out this campaign on a positive note.  

Keep encouraging everyone you know to get out and vote on Tuesday.  Remind them that while the top of the ballot for President is the race everyone is interested in, the next most important race is the 5th district race.  This is our chance to reverse 8 years of bad policy and take our future back.   Tuesday will be historical and we can be part of it by sending a Democrat to Congress from the 5th district for the first time in 30 years.  Most important to remember — the Democratic message throughout the long campaign has been a positive one stressing HOPE and CHANGE.

Review of the Past Week on the Campaign Trail:

I participated in several additional debates / forums with the other 2 candidates for the 5th district seat this week.   There was really nothing new to report as both my opponents stayed on script with the expected answers to the usual questions.   After going through this process, I am pleased that we did so many debates across the 5th district.   Voters across the district had many opportunities to come out and see the candidates in person and hear where we stand on the issues.  

We had a great GOTV rally in Clarion on Saturday with a nice turnout of people from the Clarion area including members of the Clarion University Young Democrats and members from the IUPAT union.  I was honored to share the stage with PA House candidate Matt Ellenberger, Clarion County Democratic Chairman Bill Miller and IUPAT National President James Williams.

I had 2 big highlights this week — Meeting former President Bill Clinton in State College and meeting our next Vice President, Senator Joe Biden at a rally in Williamsport.

Mark meets and receives the endorsement of Bill Clinton.

Meeting our next VP Joe Biden in Williamsport.

It was an honor to meet both of these great men and it is something I will always remember.  I learned that Senator Biden and I have something in common.  He also served as a county commissioner in Delaware before he was elected to the United States Senate.  

Here is a picture from the rally in Williamsport that appeared in the Lock Haven newspaper.

The gathering in Williamsport.

Schedule for Upcoming Week:

Monday — 7 PM —  DuBois Democratic Committee Meeting

Tuesday  — Election Day

Wednesday & Beyond — To Be Decided by the Voters in the 5th District.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

The campaign schedule has been pretty intense over the last week and will continue to be so until the BIG day on Tuesday, November 4th.   I want to congratulate everyone for putting so much effort into this year’s election, not just for an individual campaign, but for the entire Democratic ticket.  I’ve seen people in every community throughout the 5th district working to make sure the message is getting out.  

I want to remind everyone it is important that we finish strong.   Don’t take anything for granted, ignore the polls and work like the polls show our candidates 5 points down.  Remember, while all indications show Barack Obama will be our next president, if we believe the polls, Al Gore would be concluding his second term or we would be working to re-elect President John Kerry right now.

On a personal note specifically dealing with our campaign for the United State Congress, I want to assure everyone that I am working as hard as I can heading into the final week of the campaign.   Back in January when Kelly and I decided we would enter the race we knew that 2008 would be a difficult year for our family.  We’ve missed opportunities to do things as a family but we knew solving the problems besieging our nation required a sacrifice.  What is encouraging is watching the work everyone is doing and seeing people giving of their time and donating their personal skills to bring a positive result on November 4th.

For the final week, I ask that everyone keep in mind what the real goal is.  The real goal isn’t just to win an election, what we are working for in 2008 is to take back our future.   I’ve been stressing to voters the last couple of weeks to realize over the last 8 years poor decisions in Washington have put the future for our children and grandchildren in jeopardy.  The one issue more apparent than any other is the outrageous deficit and debt that George W. Bush will leave behind when he moves out of the White House in January.

My Republican opponent constantly says the “Bush tax cuts are our tax cuts” when the real truth is the Bush debt is our debt.  The only way we are going to get our future back is by voting for the right people on November 4th who will make the tough decisions to put our country back in order.   It all starts with making our federal government fiscally strong so we can invest in our nation and make the lives of all our citizens better.   Sacrifice will be necessary, but in the end our country will be better.

A Very Important Endorsement:

I am please to announce that my candidacy has received the endorsement of the Veterans and Military Families for Progress.  In the letter informing our campaign of the endorsement the organization stated “Veterans and Military Families for Progress has chosen to endorse your campaign.  We do this in recognition of your support of veteran, active duty, guard, reserve, and military family issues.  We hope that in some way our endorsement provides you an electoral advantage and ultimately ensures your election to the Pennsylvania Fifth Congressional District seat”.

This is a very important endorsement to receive from a prestigious organization that is dedicated to supporting the issues important of the active military and their families along with our veterans.  This is an endorsement our campaign can be very proud to receive.

Campaign Commercial:

We are getting our message of fiscal responsibility out to the people of this district.  We have a plan to right the ship and move in a new direction that includes balancing the budget, paying down the debt and investing here at home.  

We can’t afford any more of the “borrow and spend” mentality that has gotten us in this situation.  This debt is a national security issue and we intend to confront it with the experience and even-handedness it requires.

Review of the Past Week on the Campaign Trail:

I participated in 4 more candidate debates this week.  We started off Monday evening with a 2 hour debate from Mansfield University in Tioga County that was broadcast live on PCN.   Tuesday and Wednesday brought debates in smaller venues with stop in Bellefonte on Tuesday and an event on Wednesday in Lewistown.   On Thursday all 3 candidates participated in a live 1 hour debate broadcast live on WPSU-TV.

The one thing I’ve taken out of all these debates that I’ve participated in, some just with my Republican opponent and others that also included the Libertarian candidate, is I am on the right side of the issues that affect the majority of the people in the 5th district.  When you list off the issues we are regularly asked about in the debates — Fiscal Responsibility, Health Care Reform, Social Security, Public Education Policy, Energy Policy and the Iraq War, the stances I take which mostly mirrors the rest of the Democratic Party platform are in line with what I am hearing from voters in the 5th district.   We won’t know until next week if what I’m saying is really resonating with the voters in the 5th district but I feel confident that our message is strong and voters are listening.  

Saturday finished the week with a strong day of campaigning.  I started out the day at 1 PM in Emporium, Cameron County for the fall Democratic luncheon.   I then made a 70 mile dash to Lock Haven to attend a 3 PM GOTV rally headlined by Gov. Ed Rendell.   I shared the stage with Rep. Mike Hanna, Obama campaign rep. Jayson Harpster, Clinton County Commissioners Joel Long and Adam Coleman, Lock Haven Mayor Rick Vilello and Clinton County Democratic Chairman Dave Wallace.   Then it was on to a 5 PM appearance in Boalsburg at the Centre County Democratic Fall banquet with Gov. Rendell and all the Democratic candidates representing Centre County.  The long day ended with a final stop after 7 PM in Lewistown for the Mifflin County Democratic Fall banquet.  

Schedule for Upcoming Week:

Monday — 6 PM —  Meeting with Federal Credit Union Members — Hampton Inn DuBois

Tuesday  — 8 AM — Radio Interview WRSC

Tuesday — 9:30 AM — Tour of AccuWeather

Tuesday — 6:30 PM — Debate in New Bethlehem / Clarion County sponsored by League of Women Voters

Wednesday — 7 PM — Penn State Political Science Debate — West Hall Commons Building — Main Campus

Thursday — 8 AM — Radio Interview — DuBois  

Thursday — 7 PM — WPSU Radio Debate

Friday — 8 AM — Radio Interview with Jerry Fisher — State College

Saturday — Time TBD — GOTV Rally in Clarion County

Sunday — Time TBD — GOTV Rally in State College

FUNDRAISING REMINDER — Keep talking with people about the 5,000 Friends to Flip the Fifth project. We can win the 5th District Congressional District for the first time in 32 years but we need to be organizing our forces heading into the final weeks. The only way to turn this country around is to send people to Washington who will make the tough decisions. The choice in the 5th district is clear. My opponent regularly states that he supports the fiscal policies of the Bush administration AKA “the Bush tax cuts” and will continue them — More of the Same. While I continue to stress that we must balance the budget, built a surplus and pay down the debt.

In order to get the message out to voters we will need to advertise which costs money. Please contact your family and friends and urge them to financially support our campaign as we move into the final weeks. Donations can be made online through www.actblue.com or by direct mail to McCracken for Congress, PO Box 332, Clearfield PA 16830.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Earlier this week I received an email from a 5th district voter with very strong pro-life beliefs who would like to vote for me.  She told me via email that she is comfortable that I am Catholic and my stance on pro-life issues is similar to that of Sen. Robert Casey.   She feels it is very likely Barack Obama will be elected President and the Democratic Party will gain seats Congress.   Where her concern lies is what actions a newly inaugurated President Barack Obama and a United States Congress with a strong Democratic majority will take after January of 2009.   She is afraid there will be a far left agenda that will attempt to overturn pro-life initiatives put into effect like the ban on partial birth abortions.

In my response back to her, I explained that my agenda when I arrive in Washington will be exactly what I’ve been campaigning on.  I want to concentrate on fiscal responsibility, a national energy policy that stresses domestically produced alternative fuels, health care and health insurance reform, saving and strengthening Social Security, rescinding No Child Left Behind and bringing our troops home from Iraq.   I also mentioned that I will not stand for Congress losing sight of what the agenda must be — solving the problems important to the middle class.

There are so many important issues the American people want resolved and, if they give the Democratic Party a mandate with the election of Barack Obama as President and a larger majority in the United States Congress, we must strictly honor the wishes of the people.  From Barack Obama on down, we need to realize going in the American people want results and they want the mess left by George W. Bush cleaned up.  What they not accept is veering off on a far left agenda that brings issues to the table that have nothing to do with the economy and the problems of the middle class.

For the first time since the so called “Reagan Revolution” in 1980, the country is ready to put their full trust in the Democratic Party.  The Democratic Party the voters want to see is one that will concentrate on the problems of the middle class and will reflect the leadership values of Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman and John F. Kennedy.  To make this happen and to honor the trust the American people will give to the Democratic Party on November 4th, the far left elements must stand down and allow Barack Obama and a moderate Democratic Congress to lead this country.  This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to turn our country around and there is no margin for error.

Gen. Colin Powell endorses Barack Obama:

Today’s endorsement by Colin Powell of Barack Obama is news that will likely solidify what the outcome will be on November 4th.  To have someone of Gen. Powell’s stature come out and endorse Sen. Obama should speak volumes to any of the undecided voters still out there.  It should also encourage those to of us who long ago decided that Barack Obama is the leader we need that we made the right choice.

Review of the Past Week on the Campaign Trail:

This week I participated in 3 candidate forum / debates with my opponents.   I feel very confident in my performance against my 2 opponents and I am able to show the voters that we are on their side on the important issues like fiscal responsibility, health care reform, saving Social Security, energy policy and the concern for the problems of the middle class.  

On Friday evening, Henry Guthrie and I traveled to Forest County to meet with members of the Democratic Party there.   Thanks to Sheriff Bob Wolfgang for arranging the meeting.   There was a large contingent of Forest County Democrats at the meeting and they are ready to do everything they can to help our campaign and see a big Democratic victory on November 4th.

On Saturday evening, Kelly and I traveled to Ridgway for the Elk County Democratic Committee fall dinner.  It was a wonderful event and we got to hear a round of great speeches from Nye Simmons representing the Obama campaign, Don Hilliard running for the State Senate and Rep. Dan Surra running for re-election to the state house.  The folks in Elk County are out working hard for the Democratic ticket and I reminded them that Elk County with a solid Democratic registration majority will play a large role in the outcome of the 5th district race.

Schedule for Upcoming Week:

Monday — 11:30 AM — Williamsport Rotary

Monday — 5:00 PM — McCracken for Congress Pre-Debate Reception – St. James Church Parish Hall — 30 Wellsboro Street — Mansfield PA.  

Monday — 7:00 PM — Tioga County Debate — Mansfield Univ. Straughn Auditorium

Tuesday — 3 – 3:45 PM — Arnold Addison Court in St. College — with Art Goldschmidt

Tuesday — 4 – 5 PM Foxdale Retirement Community in St. College — with Art Goldschmidt

Tuesday — 7 PM — Bellefonte Media Outlet Debate

Wednesday — 6:30 PM — Mifflin County Farm Bureau Debate — Indian Valley HS – Lewistown

Thursday — 7 PM — WPSU TV Debate — State College

Friday — WJAC Debate in Centre County — Details TBA

Saturday — 1 PM — Cameron County Democratic Lunch – Emporium

Saturday — 5 PM — Centre County Fall Democratic Banquet — State College

Sunday — 12 Noon — House Party at Marie Sweets in State College

FUNDRAISING REMINDER — Keep talking with people about the 5,000 Friends to Flip the Fifth project. We can win the 5th District Congressional District for the first time in 32 years but we need to be organizing our forces heading into the final weeks. The only way to turn this country around is to send people to Washington who will make the tough decisions. The choice in the 5th district is clear. My opponent regularly states that he supports the fiscal policies of the Bush administration AKA “the Bush tax cuts” and will continue them — More of the Same. While I continue to stress that we must balance the budget, built a surplus and pay down the debt.

In order to get the message out to voters we will need to advertise which costs money. Please contact your family and friends and urge them to financially support our campaign as we move into the final weeks. Donations can be made online through www.actblue.com or by direct mail to McCracken for Congress, PO Box 332, Clearfield PA 16830.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

While everyone was focusing on the fate of the bailout plan this week, the federal government’s debt passed the $10 trillion mark with hardly anyone noticing.  Of course, the bailout plan insures that this debt will climb even higher as there is specific language in the bailout plan authorizing the federal government to raise the debt limit and borrow up to $840 billion to fund the bailout.

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U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK

The Outstanding Public Debt as of 05 Oct 2008 at 12:45:21 PM GMT is:

$10,156,891,193,312.09

The estimated population of the United States is 304,852,050

so each citizen’s share of this debt is $33,317.19.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of

$3.08 billion per day since September 28, 2007!

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The working people of the United States should be outraged that the members of Congress passed the bailout bill without addressing a way to fund the cost.  It is bordering on criminal that our elected leaders at the federal level continue to allow this debt to grow ignoring the impact it will have on the future security of our nation.  I have continued to stress as the main theme of my campaign that we must elect leaders who will make fiscal responsibility a top priority.  We must solve this problem now or we will pass it on to our children and grandchildren, leaving this country a weak shell of what it once was.

In a typical campaign year, voters would be looking for the candidates that are spreading the “Happy Days Are Here Again” message.  However, in 2008, unless you are living a severe state of denial, you have to realize that tough times are upon us and tough choices must be made.  I’ve heard my Republican opponent regularly state “I believe our best days are ahead of us.”   The hard facts are people are struggling with higher fuel prices, no health care coverage, higher food prices and higher local taxes because of the failed policies of the last 8 years and the neglect of the problems affecting the middle class.  While they’ve worked to reform welfare for individuals, our government is now passing bailout legislation that amounts to corporate welfare.

The real message voters need to hear is the hard truth.   This country is a mess and tough decisions must be made to turn the country around.   The turn around won’t be a quick and it won’t be easy.  But, if voters do their part and make the right choices on November 4th, we can start the process to bring our country back.  And, in bringing the country back, the emphasis must be on putting the needs of the working people above the desires of corporate America for profits.  

Review of the Past Week on the Campaign Trail:

This past week I was on the road doing interviews with several newspapers from within the 5th district and I also recorded a ½ hour interview that will be broadcast later in October on PCN.  There were also candidate forums this week in Clearfield and Bradford where I had the chance to discuss the issues with my opponents.  Finally, we finished the week with 2 great events.  On Friday in State College Justin Braz and Bill Van Saun arranged an event with some Penn State students so we could talk with them about how important this election is to young voters.   State Rep. Scott Conklin also spoke with the young voters.  

On Saturday we traveled to Clarion to participate in the Autumn Leaf Festival parade.  It was a great event with special guests Franco Harris and his wife Dana on hand representing the Obama campaign.  The people in Clarion were chanting “Franco, Franco” throughout the parade route and it was really encouraging to hear the cheers for the Democratic floats and the enthusiasm for Barack Obama.  Special thanks go out to Clarion County Democratic Chairman Bill Miller for pulling everything together, State Rep. Matt Ellenberger and the Clarion University Young Dems for their work building 2 great floats.

Franco Harris with Clarion University Young Dems

With State Rep Candidate Matt Ellenberger in front of Democratic Float

Bob Myers from Venango County getting autograph from Franco Harris

Talking with Franco Harris

Schedule for the Upcoming Week:

Tuesday — Cameron County Debate – 6:00PM

Wednesday — WJAC Interview – 9:00AM

Thursday — Debate at State College High School [TENTATIVE] – 10:00AM, PSU-DuBois Debate – 6:30PM

Friday — Lycoming County Grange Meet the Candidates Forum – 6:00PM, Dinner with the PSU Young Dems – 8:00PM

Saturday — Renovo Flaming Foliage Parage – 12:00PM, Venango County Democratic Dinner – 7:00PM

FUNDRAISING REMINDER — Keep talking with people about the 5,000 Friends to Flip the Fifth project. We can win the 5th District Congressional District for the first time in 32 years but we need to be organizing our forces heading into the final weeks. The only way to turn this country around is to send people to Washington who will make the tough decisions. The choice in the 5th district is clear. My opponent regularly states that he supports the fiscal policies of the Bush administration AKA “the Bush tax cuts” and will continue them — More of the Same. While I continue to stress that we must balance the budget, built a surplus and pay down the debt.

In order to get the message out to voters we will need to advertise which costs money. Please contact your family and friends and urge them to financially support our campaign as we move into the final weeks. Donations can be made online through www.actblue.com or by direct mail to McCracken for Congress, PO Box 332, Clearfield PA 16830.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Throughout the campaign I’ve been involved in several candidate forums with my opponents for the open seat in the 5th Congressional District.  Additionally, during the final 5 weeks of the campaign there will be several additional opportunities for voters in the 5th district to watch all three candidates debate the important issues facing the district and the nation.  The important question voters should consider while watching or listening to these events is which of the three candidates really understands the important problems facing our nation.

There are several issues that clearly define and differentiate where I stand and what I believe in versus my two opponents.  I’ve found that my stances on Health Care Reform, the future of Social Security, understanding the economic problems in the 5th district and, most importantly, fiscal responsibility by the federal government separate me from my two opponents.

Starting with Health Care Reform, my Republican opponent has repeatedly stated “the United States has the best healthcare system in the world” and says “we don’t turn people away.”  But, the sad fact is there are 45.7 million uninsured people in the United States and many more underinsured.  He also regularly says that a “tremendous debate needs to occur” and that the way to solve the nation’s health care crisis is to “peel away the layers of federal regulations.”  

In contrast, I understand that too many of our citizens, both here in the 5th district and across the nation, lack access to affordable health care.  The statement that “we don’t turn people away” is completely false.  The fact remains that people who have no health care coverage do get turned away and those who finally get treatment once it is a critical situation that requires a trip to the emergency room are then faced with harassment from the billing department at the hospital or by a collection agency.  

On health care reform, my opponents are wrong on several counts — we don’t need a “tremendous debate” we’ve talked long enough and we need more detailed solutions than just “peeling away the layers of federal regulations.”  Throughout the campaign, I have proposed as a first step a voluntary national health insurance purchasing pool to provide low cost health care coverage for individuals and small businesses.  Once this proves successful, then we can move forward on the real solution which is universal health care for everyone.

On Social Security, the contrast is also clear.  On numerous occasions my Republican opponent has touted his strong support for the idea of allowing young people to take part of their Social Security to invest in private accounts.  I have stressed that we must work to save and strengthen Social Security for all future generations and any policy that includes private accounts like those proposed by my Republican opponent would only weaken Social Security.  

Of even greater concern is the fact that private financial investments fail as we’ve clearly witnessed in recent weeks.  What happens in the future if funds diverted from Social Security to private accounts fail?  Will the taxpayers in the future have to bailout millions of individuals who chose to go the private accounts route when their investments fail and they have no retirement to fall back on.  The choice must be to save and strengthen Social Security for our children and grandchildren.  Policies that would weaken the system while placing the future retirement of millions of our young people at risk is unacceptable and candidates proposing these ideas should be rejected.

Finally, the one issue that I’m asking the voters in the 5th district to really judge the candidates on is the issue of fiscal responsibility in Washington.  This is an issue I understand as a citizen, as a former school board member and now as a county commissioner.  I will continue to stress that the most important thing we need from Congress is fiscal responsibility with a commitment to balancing the federal budget which currently has a $482 billion deficit, building a solid surplus and, most important, paying down the $9.7 trillion federal government debt.  My Republican opponent continues to build his campaign around “extending the Bush tax cuts” while at the same time proposing increases in spending.  

As proof of my commitment to supporting fiscal responsibility and my honesty with the voters in comparison to my Republican opponent’s mixed signals on fiscal matters go to www.yourcandidatesyourhealth.org and compare both of our responses on increased federal funding for research.  Throughout the campaign and in surveys I’ve been asked to complete, I stress that there is a fiscal crisis in Washington and there is NO MONEY for increased domestic spending until we make the commitment to solving the fiscal crisis.  In contrast, my Republican opponent continues to support the failed fiscal policies from the last 8 years and he continues to suggest that federal funding increases are possible in many areas.

In the closing weeks of the campaign, I’m going to stress to voters to use the fiscal crisis as the key issue to decide the 5th district race.  The question voters must ask themselves is this:  Do you want a person representing you in Congress who understands our biggest problem is the $9.7 trillion debt owed to nations like China and Saudi Arabia OR do you want a person who disregards this threat in favor of extending tax cuts that benefited the most wealthy and affluent citizens?  Perhaps more important to consider is this:  Will we send people to Congress who will confront and solve this threat now, or will we pass responsibility for this problem on to our children and grandchildren?

More on the Bush bailout plan:  I wrote last week of my concern about President Bush’s plan to provide a $700 billion bailout to rescue failing financial institutions.  Earlier this week I watched President Bush speak to the nation about his plan where he attempted to explain what he was doing and why he wanted to do it.  While we heard the what and the why, he failed to offer the most important information the nation needed to hear — How is he going to pay for it.  Sadly, the facts are out in his proposal that the $700 billion bailout will be paid for by increasing the federal debt limit which means the bailout will be funded with more borrowed money AKA fiscally irresponsible policies.  

If I was a member of Congress now, I could not support any bailout bill that fails to address funding the bailout and I would strongly and vocally oppose adding this cost to the debt.  However, I would be offering solutions on how to raise the funds to pay for the bailout.  Specifically I would suggest the following recommendations to raise revenue to fund the bailout:

1. I would call for immediate investigations to identify any corporate executives who were responsible for this financial fiasco and would demand that the bailout bill include language to freeze and seize the assets of those responsible for the mess.  The assets of those responsible would then be liquidated to pay restitution to the federal government to help fund the bailout.

2. I would propose 2 funding streams that would expire once the bailout costs are recovered.  First, there would be a ½ % stock transfer fee.  In order to waive this fee for private citizens who dabble in the stock market, the first $5,000 per year would be exempt from the fee.  Second, there would be a ½ % mortgage fee that would be waived from the first $75,000 of the mortgage amount so it would not severely impact first time home buyers.

These two suggestions would raise significant revenue to fund the bailout plan and would also keep the cost from being applied to the federal debt.  It would also place responsibility for funding the bailout costs on those who will benefit from the bailout rather than the middle class taxpayers.  The most important language that would be included in regards to both the stock transfer fee and the mortgage fee is that they will expire once the crisis is over.  This will provide the incentive for leaders in the financial services industry to do everything they can to get us through the financial crisis so the added fees to the federal government will expire as soon as possible.

Schedule for the Upcoming Week:

Monday — Newspaper Interviews — The Progress / Clearfield, Clarion, Ridgway and St. Marys, Daily Collegian

Tuesday — WJAC Interview,  Meet the Candidates — Clearfield Chamber of Commerce at Elks Club

Wednesday —  Meeting with Fayette Resources / DuBois, Interviews with PCN and Lewistown Sentinel,  State College Borough Democratic Committee event — 6 PM Ramada Inn in State College

Thursday — Newspaper Interviews during the day,  Debate in Bradford at Pitt / Bradford Campus 6 PM

Friday — Event in State College with PSU Students

Saturday — Clarion Leaf Festival and Parade

FUNDRAISING REMINDER — Keep talking with people about the 5,000 Friends to Flip the Fifth project.  We can win the 5th District Congressional District for the first time in 32 years but we need to be organizing our forces heading into the final weeks.  The only way to turn this country around is to send people to Washington who will make the tough decisions.  The choice in the 5th district is clear.  My opponent regularly states that he supports the fiscal policies of the Bush administration AKA “the Bush tax cuts” and will continue them — More of the Same.  While I continue to stress that we must balance the budget, built a surplus and pay down the debt.

In order to get the message out to voters we will need to advertise which costs money.  Please contact your family and friends and urge them to financially support our campaign as we move into the final weeks.  Donations can be made online through www.actblue.com or by direct mail to McCracken for Congress, PO Box 332, Clearfield PA 16830.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

This past Friday morning in Venango County all 3 candidates for the 5th Congressional District appeared at the Venango County Chamber of Commerce Breakfast Candidate Forum.   During this event, the issue of fiscal responsibility, the $482 billion budget deficit and the $9.7 trillion federal debt came up several times.   Fiscal responsibility is perhaps the single issue that clearly defines the difference between me and my opponents in this campaign.

Since day one of my candidacy I’ve stressed that we must bring the federal budget back in balance, return to growing a surplus and make the long term commitment to paying down our debt to foreign countries.  My Republican opponent stated again on Friday that he supports extending the Bush tax cuts.   Contrary to what he says, I continue to believe the first step to return to fiscal responsibility is to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire.  Below is a chart from the Congressional Budget Office that shows the negative impact the Bush tax cuts had on the federal budget along with projections of what will happen when they expire.

Be advised, the chart above was released in January of 08, months before the Bush administration themselves announced a record deficit of $482 billion when they leave office in January of 09.  The chart above actually had a more optimistic projection of a deficit of around $220 billion for 08/09.

While John McCain and many Republicans running for Congress continue to support the idea of “trickle down” economics, there is no proof that this type of fiscal policy will succeed, especially with the unstable condition the nation’s economy is in.  Consider that banks are failing, the housing bubble has burst, the mortgage / foreclosure crisis, the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the American auto industry is seeking federal loan guarantees along with and other economic indicators that show the US economy in turmoil.  There are too many problems that require financial intervention from the federal government at a time when our federal government is in it’s fiscally weakest condition ever.

I continually point to the fact of how well off the economy was in the late 90’s when we were showing fiscal responsibility with a balanced budget, a growing surplus and a decreasing debt load.  Then, George W. Bush took office on January 20th, 2001 with a record budget surplus and he, along with the Republican controlled Congress, chose to halt fiscally responsible policy for the quick gratification of a tax cut that mostly benefited the wealthiest 5% of the citizens.  Even more problematic was when President Bush made the decision to begin the Iraq war, he failed to adjust his fiscal policies to pay for it.  

We must recognize that the fiscal mess, while blame lies directly with George W. Bush and Congress, is our nation’s #1 problem and it must be dealt with before we can move forward on solving other domestic problems.  In order to fix this problem, it is going to take sacrifice on the part of everyone.   Unfortunately, it is the people at the top who benefited the most from the Bush tax cuts that cry out “they want to take away MY TAX CUT”.   These same people must be reminded that while they benefited from the Bush tax cuts, it is now “our deficit and our debt” regardless of who the politicians were that made the irresponsible decisions to get us in this hole.   If we were to assign a moral to the story of the George W. Bush presidency, it would be reasonable to say “The Rich Got Richer, The Poor Got Poorer and the Middle Class Had To Pay For It”.

While members of the next Congress will have tough choices to make on how to deal with this fiscal mess, voters will first have to make their own tough choice on November 4th.  Before you vote on November 4th ask yourself this – Do you want to solve this problem now or have it grow larger and pass it on to your children and grandchildren?   Make no mistake — The Bill Must Be Paid at some point.   Voters need to look at this issue in this context: If you were running a business that was having financial problems and you had the choice to hire a person that identified why your business was failing and how to fix it VERSUS a person who was in denial that the problem exists and fails to recognize what caused the problem — which person would you hire to solve this problem?  

I am the only candidate on the ballot in the 5th Congressional District who recognizes the problem and will commit to making the tough / responsible choices to solve this problem that will ultimately secure a better future for our children and grandchildren.   It won’t be easy, but we were on the right track in the 90’s and we can get back there again.  

Here is a link to a story about the 5th District race that is on goerie.com

http://www.goerie.com/apps/pbc…

Highlights From The Past Week:

Last Sunday, Kelly, Amanda and I had a wonderful time attending the Democratic picnics in Clinton and Lycoming Counties.   On Tuesday, I invited Art Goldschmidt of State College to travel with me to Tioga County to attend the opening of the Tioga County Obama / Democratic Headquarters.  Wednesday we were in St. Marys attending a labor rally for both myself and State Rep. Dan Surra that was organized by various labor unions.  

Special thanks to the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO for providing the Billy Bus for an appearance at the rally in St. Marys.  Friday was the aforementioned Venango County Chamber Candidate Forum.   In the evening on Friday I attended the 50th Anniversary of the Brady Township Fire Company in Luthersburg, Clearfield County.

Saturday, Henry Guthrie and I spent the day in Warren County attending the opening of the Obama / Democratic Headquarters in Warren and later in the day we attended the Warren County Democratic Committee Steak Dinner.   Below are some pictures from the events in Warren County.

Warren County Obama HQ Opening Pictures:

Warren County Democratic Committee Steak Dinner:

Schedule for the Upcoming Week:

Sunday — Mike Hanna Event in Moshannon PA — 3 PM

Tuesday — Visit to Clarion County Democratic HQ — Meeting with Clarion / Venango County Supporters — 7 PM

Wednesday — Moshannon Valley EDC Candidate Breakfast Forum — 8 PM Philipsburg Country Club,  Centre County Realtors Lunch — State College — Noon  /  Elk County Democratic Meeting — 7 PM

Thursday — DuBois Chamber of Commerce Legislative Day — DuBois Country Club — 5 PM

Friday — Venango County Chamber of Commerce Breakfast Candidate Forum — Franklin PA — 7:30 AM,  Brady Township in Clearfield County VFD 50th Anniversary Dinner — 6 PM

Saturday — Festival in Johnsonburg — Elk County / Elk Expo — Kersey / Sykesville Gun Raffle — 5:30 PM

Sunday — Union Twp Fire Co. 50th Annv. Celebration / Truck Show — Rockton PA

IMPORTANT – Keith Bierly is still signing up people to participate in the “We’re Backin McCracken Golf Outing” on Monday September 22nd beginning at 8 AM at the Belles Springs Golf Course – Clinton County.  Please contact Keith at keithbierly@yahoo.com.

REMINDER — Keep talking with people about the 5,000 Friends to Flip the Fifth project.   We can win the 5th District Congressional District for the first time in 32 years but we need to be organizing our forces heading into the final weeks.   While it’s my name that will be on the ballot on November 4th, this victory will be for all the hard working people of the 5th Congressional District.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

As we move into the final 2 months in the campaign for the 5th Congressional District, the economic conditions in the 5th district will play a key role in the outcome of this race.  The facts are clear that rural north central and northwest Pennsylvania lags behind the rest of the state and nation in economic development and opportunities for our citizens.  Recent unemployment statistics released by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry shows that 2 counties in the 5th district, Cameron and Forest, have the 2 highest unemployment rates in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.  Additionally, 15 of the 17 counties in the 5th district have unemployment rates over 5%, which is unacceptable.

While the unemployment news is bad enough, worse is the most recent median household income figures reported by the US Census Bureau — 2006 American Communities Survey showing that citizens in the 5th district earn on average almost $12,000 less per year than the rest of the United States.  This is an abysmal number and is one of the main reasons that the best and brightest of our young people tend to leave our communities after high school and college graduation.  Why would they stay when the cost for food, clothes, gas, utilities and other necessities are the same as the rest of the country while income levels are much less in the 5th district?

What is needed for the 5th district to combat a continuation of the high unemployment rates and lower than average income levels is a commitment to have a “Rural Renewal” in the 5th Congressional District.  When I am your congressman, I plan to work on the idea of having a rural renewal for rural north central and northwest Pennsylvania that will bring investment for necessary infrastructure improvements to all our counties and communities.  I will work as a direct partner with county commissioners and economic development agencies to determine what upgrades are needed in the various counties and then work with state and federal level officials to secure funding for important projects.  

The idea for a “Rural Renewal” will only work if voters in the 5th district realize that turning around the economic fortunes of this district starts with them on November 4th.  While the economic indicator numbers referenced above are recent numbers from June of 2008 for the unemployment figures and from 2006 for the median income levels, these are trends that have continued in the 5th district for several decades.  These trends have continued over the last 12 years under our current representative in Washington and likely will continue unless the next member of Congress from the 5th District makes a real commitment to changing these trends.  My commitment is that I will be the lead partner with our state and county level elected officials along with economic development and business leaders to bring a rural renewal to the 5th district.  

The question voters must ask themselves is this:  Do you want More of the Same high unemployment and low wages or do you want Something Better in a Rural Renewal for the 5th Congressional District?

Schedule for the Upcoming Week:

Sunday — Clinton County Picnic at 1 PM / Lycoming County Picnic at 3 PM

Monday –  American Federation Of Government Employees Council Of Prison Locals, Local 3974 — Bradford PA — 5 PM

Tuesday — Tioga County / Mansfield — Obama / Democratic HQ Opening — 5 PM

Wednesday — Surra / McCracken Labor Rally — St. Marys — 3 PM

Friday — Venango County Chamber of Commerce Breakfast Candidate Forum — Franklin PA — 7:30 AM,  Brady Township in Clearfield County VFD 50th Anniversary Dinner — 6 PM

Saturday — Warren County HQ Opening — 3 PM  Warren County Democratic Steak Cookout Picnic — 5 PM

Sunday — Mike Hanna Fundraiser — Moshannon PA — 3 PM

We look forward to seeing you out there on the campaign trail!

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page