SSP Daily Digest: 6/8 (Afternoon Edition)

CO-Sen, PA-Sen: Need some quantification that people just don’t care about the job-offer so-called-stories in the Colorado and Pennsylvania races? It comes from Rasmussen, of all places, perhaps the pollster you’d think would have the greatest vested interest in finding that people do care. 44% of those sampled say this is business as usual for politicians, with only 19% saying it’s unusual. And 32% say it’s an issue that will be “very important” in their decisions in November (and what do you want to bet most of that 32% wouldn’t think it was important if it was a Republican offering a job to a Republican?), Scott Rasmussen points out that’s quite low compared with other issues in importance.

DE-Sen: It’s been confirmed: Joe Biden will be heading back to Delaware to stump on behalf of Chris Coons. Biden will appear at a June 28 fundraiser in Wilmington.

NC-Sen (pdf): PPP is out with another look at the North Carolina Senate race, where the Democratic field has yet to be settled via runoff. Today’s results focus only on the general election, though, where Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham both lost a little ground against Richard Burr as the bump wore off in the middle of the lull between the primary and the runoff. Burr is still at an unenviable approval of 35/37, but he leads Marshall 46-39 (up from a 1-point margin in the poll immediately post-primary) and leads Cunningham 46-35.

AL-Gov: The final count of all ballots in the too-close to call Republican gubernatorial primary is scheduled to be released today. The issue isn’t who won, but who made second place and makes it into the runoff. Businessman and gubernatorial progeny Tim James, who was in third on election night by 205 votes, says he’ll seek a recount regardless of what happens with the final count of provisional ballots, so it’ll be a while before we know whether he or Robert Bentley faces Bradley Byrne in the runoff.

MI-Gov: One more big union endorsement for Virg Bernero in the Michigan Democratic primary; the Lansing mayor got the nod from the state AFSCME (not surprising, considering that public employee unions have little use for his rival, Andy Dillon).

MN-Gov: The good news: there’s a new poll out showing all three potential DFL nominees handily beating GOP nominee Tom Emmer in the Minnesota gubernatorial race, contrary to the recent SurveyUSA (where Emmer was winning) and Minnesota Public Radio (super-close) polls. The bad news: it’s a pollster I’ve never heard of, and I can’t tell at whose behest they took the poll, so I don’t know how much weight to give this one. At any rate, Decision Resources Ltd. finds that Mark Dayton leads Emmer and Independence Party nominee Tom Horner 40-28-18. Margaret Anderson Kelliher leads 38-28-17, while Matt Entenza leads 34-27-19.

MS-Gov: Hey, I know we haven’t even gotten through the current election, but it’s only a year and a half till Mississippi’s off-year gubernatorial election. The mayor of Hattiesburg, Johnny Dupree, will seek the Democratic nomination. If he won, he’d be Mississippi’s first African-American governor. (H/t GOPVOTER.)

TX-Gov: It turns out that it was too early to conclude (as the media did yesterday) that the Greens were actually going to get a ballot line in Texas this year, which could make a difference in a close gubernatorial race. An Arizona political consulting group collected the 92,000 signatures and, for campaign finance purposes, delivered them as “a gift” to the Greens. But while an individual could do that, a corporation can’t, according to an election law expert.

VT-Gov: One other state where organized labor is starting to weigh in to the Democratic primary is Vermont, where the state AFL-CIO and the Vermont Education Association both have decided to back former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine. The good news here may be that the AFL-CIO isn’t backing Anthony Pollina like they did last time, splitting the liberal vote (although there’s no indication yet that Pollina will be running this time).

FL-24: One day after snagging Mike Huckabee’s endorsement, Karen Diebel got the boom lowered on her by RedState (who don’t have a candidate they’re backing, but suddenly seem spooked about her electability issues). They reiterated the (already a known piece of oppo research that’s been floating around for the last year, although perhaps not known to all readers here) story about Diebel’s 911 call in 2007 where police were called to her house over reports of a dead snake in her pool and she subsequently told police she was afraid she was being monitored through her phone and computer.

NJ-04: With the exception of his hard-core anti-abortion stances, Chris Smith has usually been one of the most moderate House Republicans, so it’s strange to see him enlisting the help of bomb-thrower Michele Bachmann in a re-election bid (in the form of robocalls). In fact, it’s strange to see him sweating a re-election bid period, but facing a teabagger primary challenge from Alan Bateman in today’s climate, he’s not taking any chances.

WA-08: It’s also see strange to see the Seattle Times going after their pet Congresscritter, Dave Reichert. But they also lambasted him in a weekend editorial for his cynicism, after he was caught on tape telling a Republican audience how he takes the occasional pro-environmental vote in order to throw a few bones to moderate or liberal voters in order to make himself safer in his Dem-leaning swing district. I suppose his brief moment of transparency upset their Broderite inner compasses and trumped even their need to keep him in office.

The Northeast – Continuing the realignment in 2010?

That the Northeast has been trending blue in recent cycles is self evidently true. Will it continue in 2010?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

Whilst current polls don’t look too good for incumbent Democrats across the Northeast I believe that we have hit the bottom. Now that Health Care reform is done I believe that the polls will rebound for Democrats, particularly in the Northeast.

Thus it is my contention that despite the current challenging environment the Northeast will continue its long term move towards the Democratic Party, despite a sure to be spiteful debate on cap and trade and despite an economic outlook that is improving in fits and starts.

The US Census defines the Northeast region as including 9 states as follows: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. And aggregating across all 9 states the lay of the land looks like this:

States that voted for Obama: 9/9

Governors: 5/9

US Senators: 15/18 (Counting Sanders and Leiberman as Dems)

House Districts: 69/83

State Senates: 8/9

State Houses: 9/9

Where I think a race is a safe Democratic hold I won’t be saying anything about it.

Going state by state then:

Connecticut

Gubernatorial – With GOP Gov Jodi Rell not running again it is very likely to be a Dem pickup.

US Senate – Both Dems. If Dodd runs he may lose for any other Dem it is a safe hold.

US House – All Dem, all Safe (including Himes in the 4th.)

State Senate – 24D/12R – Safe

State House – 114D/37R – Safe

Maine

Gubernatorial – Whilst it seems that half of Maine is running for the open Gubernatorial mansion I believe that the Democratic nature of the state will lead to a Democratic retention.

US Senate – Both Repubs! Not on ballot in 2010

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 20D/15R – Safe (Margin is growing).

State House – 95D/55R – Safe

Massachusetts –

Gubernatorial – Whilst Deval Patrick really hasn’t set the world on fire the 2nd tier nature of his potential opponents should see him safely re-elected.

US Senate – Both Dems (at least after the upcoming special election.)

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 35D/5R – Safe

State House – 144D/16R – Safe

New Hampshire

Gubernatorial – Safe Dem

US Senate – definitely a race to watch. I will be stunned if Hodes loses here. Hodes has almost $1 million dollars COH and there is a divisive GOP primary in the offing also. New Hampshire, whilst less Blue than almost all of the other states in the North East, is not going to elect a Republican as US Senator in 2010.

US House –

NH-01 – There has been a lot of focus on both of the New Hampshire congressional races. I don’t get it to be honest – Shea Porter will win, not by much but she will win.

NH-02 – Again a lot of focus here including a lot of hand wringing about how vulnerable it is to switch. Not gonna happen folks. Gore, Kerry and Obama all won this district – Obama by 13 points – and we have a quality field of candidates  running AND a divisive GOP Primary. Lead Dem Ann McLane Kuster has 250K COH as at the end of September.

State Senate – 14/10 – No change in 2008 really locks in our 2006 gains. If this one flips it will be a bad night for us.

State House – 223D/176R – Safe

New Jersey

Gubernatorial – Repub – Not on ballot in 2010

US Senate – Both Dems

US House –

NJ-02 – If State Senator Jeff Van Drew finally steps up and runs this race becomes very competitive. Hopefully he won’t wait until 2012. If State Sen Jim Whelan runs it could also get competitive in this district that Obama won 54/45 and that Bush won by less than 1% in 2004.

NJ-03 – Adler is safe.

NJ-04 – Gore carried this district and Obama lost 47/52 so a good candidate here is a must to get it on the radar instead of the second tier candidates we have run thus far.

NJ-05 – Unlikely to be on the radar in 2010.

NJ-07 – This district is winnable particularly with a freshman GOP incumbent. Obama carried it 51/48 also. Surprising then that there is no declared Dem candidate yet. Potentially a top tier race that will probably be a big miss for the DCCC.

NJ-11 – The safest GOP district in NJ and a rarity in the Northeast, (outside Pennsylvania,) a generically safe GOP district. Short of a fantastic candidate this one won’t be on the radar.

State Senate – Up in 2011

State House – Up in 2011

New York

Gubernatorial – Safe for Cuomo.

US Senate – Gillibrand will get over the line against 3rd tier opponents and Schumer is Safe too.

US House –

NY-03 – Unless Suozzi or another top tier candidate emerges then this will be a big miss for the DCCC.

NY-13 – McMahon is safe.

NY-20 – Murphy will prevail – bet on it. He had almost 1 Mill COH at the end of September!

NY-23 – One of two really competitive races in Dem held districts in NY. I think Owens will prevail, especially against Hoffman.

NY-24 – After a scare in 2008 Arcuri will be safe.

NY-25 – Maffei is safe.

NY-26 – Unless a good candidate pops up this will be a big miss for the DCCC.

NY-29 – Massa has his work cut out for him – that’s for sure. But for me Massa by a nose. Why? When was the last time the NY GOP won a District off us? Massa’s 500K COH as at end of September will help too.

State Senate – 32D/30R – A chamber to watch – big time. I expect us to hang onto or increase our majority.

State House – 109D/41R – Safe

Pennsylvania

Gubernatorial – A real worry this one could flip.

US Senate – 2 Dems – Whoever emerges from the Dem primary will beat Toomey. The good folk of Pennsylvania wouldn’t be crazy enough to sent Toomey to the US Senate would they?

US House –

PA-03 – Dahlkemper will have her work cut out to win this District that Obama JUST lost. Race to watch.

PA-04 – Altmire will be safe.

PA-05 – This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans.

PA-06 – Generic Dem beats generic Rep – Period. Doug Pike’s massive COH advantage (largely self funded) of 750K as at end of September should help him pull this one out.  

PA-07 – Not quite sure why so many people are predicting this will flip. Top tier candidates for both parties makes for a tough race but this district was won by Gore, Kerry and Obama. Add in a competitive GOP Primary and it is Dem for me.

PA-09 – One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans. This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. Yep just like PA-05.

PA-11 – Against Lou Barletta Kanjorski will be fine. Tough part of Pennsylvania for Democrats though.

PA-12 – Murtha is vulnerable but i expect him to survive (just).

PA-15 – Like PA-06 Obama carried every county in this one and yep it is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Dem Callahan is a top tier challenger and is fundraising like one (325K COH as at end of Spetember).

PA-16 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th and 9th unlikely to be a priority.

PA-18 – In theory could be vaguely competitive in 2010 (Bush only got 54% here in 2004) but unlikely given the low hanging fruit in the 6th and 15th.

PA-19 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th, 6th and 16th unlikely to be a priority in 2010, unless Todd Platts lands the Government job he is chasing. Even then unlikely to be competitive.

State Senate – 20D/30R – Safe GOP

State House – 104D/99R – Definitely a chamber to watch.

Rhode Island

Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Don Carcieri is term limited so either a Dem or former Repub Sen now Indy Lincoln Chaffee will be elected. The GOP bench here is terrible.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 35D/5R Safe

State House – 69D/6R Safe

Vermont

Gubernatorial – With GOP Gov Douglas not running the GOP have scored their best possible candidate in Lt Gov Brian Dubie; who will lose to a Dem (unless the Progressive Party act as a spoiler).

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 28D/7R Safe

State House – 95D/48R Safe

So with 10 months until election day it is off to the races!

What do you think?

Helping the CfG help us

for a good laugh, I set myself up on the Club for Growth e-mail list.  I love to see what Democrats they target and I especially love to see them promote primary challenges to Republicans….especially when they are Republicans that we are targetting…like Mark Kirk.  

Recently, the CfG sent out an e-mail complaining about 8 RINO’s who voted in favor the “dangerous cap and trade bill” last Friday.  They are looking for viable candidates to run primary challenges against these 7 (McHugh is the 8th vote but he’s retiring)

Bono Mack, Mary (CA-45)

Castle, Mike (DE-AL)

Kirk, Mark (IL-10)

Lance, Leonard (NJ-07)

LoBiondo, Frank (NJ-02)  

Reichert, Dave (WA-08)

Smith, Chris (NJ-04)

I can’t help but notice that Democrats ran strong challenges in several of these districts and are primed to do so again.  It would certaintly work to our benefit if we gave the CfG a little boost in helping to find some viable primary challengers to these Republican candidates.  

Does anybody have any knowledge of potential Republican candidates in these races that we could give some encouragement to get into these races or give the CfG some encouragement to try and get them in themselves??

The Northeast – Continuing the realignment in 2010?

We had a pretty good night on election night in the Northeast. We cleaned house. We nailed 1 GOP Senator, 6 House of Reps Districts, 1 State Senate and held on to all of the State Senates, State Houses, US House Reps and US Senators we had coming into this cycle.

That the Northeast is rapidly realigning towards team Blue is undeniable!

But the work my friends has merely begun. Forget the bunkum about us being irretrievably on defense in 2010 come below the fold to see who should be in our sights in 2010 as we stay on offense in the Northeast……..

Just to avoid any debate, (and because I got it wrong last time I tried this) the US Census defines the Northeast region as including 9 states as follows: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. And aggregating across all 9 states the lay of the land looks like this:

States that voted for Obama: 9/9

Governors: 6/9

US Senators: 14/18 (Counting Sanders and Leiberman as Dems)

House Districts: 68/83

State Senates: 8/9

State Houses: 9/9

Where I think a race is a safe Democratic hold I won’t be saying much about it such as all of our Northeast US Senators and US House races on the ballot in 2010.

Going state by state then:

Connecticut

Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Jodi Rell is quite popular and will likely be looking for a 3rd term. OTOH the Dem bench is VERY deep and a top tier challenger should be able to be found. Problem is who would want to take on such a popular pol?

US Senate – Both Dems (Hey Lieberman isn’t up for re-election in 2010 Dodd is.)

US House – ALL OURS BABY! – Keep an eye on CT-04

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzz

Maine

Gubernatorial – Dem John Baldacci probably won’t run again which on balance makes this gubernatorial chamber an easier hold for us than otherwise. The only possible exception to this is if either of the GOP US Senators run – a highly unlikely thing to happen.

US Senate – Both Repubs! Not on ballot in 2010

US House – ALL OURS BABY!

State Senate – We actually added to our margin here in 2008 moving it from 18/17 to 20/15 and yep they are all up again in 2010. A chamber to watch but we should be ok in this increasingly reliable state.

State House – zzzzzzzzzz

Massachusetts – aka nothing to see here move right along!

Gubernatorial – zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

US Senate – Both Dems zzzzzzzzzzzz

US House – ALL OURS BABY! zzzzzzzzzzzzz

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzzzz

New Hampshire

Gubernatorial – If Dem Gov Lynch runs he will win. If, as I hope, Lynch runs for the Senate then look for 2nd CD Rep Hodes to run and win for team Blue instead. My how New Hampshire has quickly shifted to us.

US Senate – 1 Dem 1 Rep and the Rep is on the ballot – Judd Gregg. Gregg has a target on his back already and I expect either Gov Lynch or Rep Hodes to run and for this one to be a barn burner.

US House – ALL OURS BABY! – Keep an eye on NH-01

State Senate – No change in 2008 really locks in our 2006 gains.

State House – Nothing really to see here we held onto almost all of our 2006 gains, dropping from 231 to 225 out of 400 we will hang onto this one in 2010 IMHO.

New Jersey

Gubernatorial – On ballot in 2009 (Go Corzine). Any Dem would be favoured to win this one as NJ residents hate all their pols they just hate Democrats less than Republicans.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House –

NJ-02 – If State Senator Jeff Van Drew finally steps up and runs this race becomes very competitive. Hopefully he won’t wait until 2012. If State Sen Jim Whelan runs it could also get competitive in this district that I suspect Obama won and that Bush won by less than 1% in 2004. Will have a Cook Dem PVI.

NJ-04 – Gore carried this district and I think Obama only just fell short so a good candidate here is a must to get it on the radar instead of the second tier candidates we have run thus far.

NJ-05 – Gee I hope 2008 Dem candidate Dennis Shulman runs again in 2010. Holding a GOP incumbent to 56% in this reasonably strong GOP district is a fair effort. Otherwise this one won’t be on the radar in 2010.

NJ-07 – I don’t know what happened here this year but a top tier candidate who is NOT Linda Stender is required. This district is winnable particulalrly with a freshman GOP incumbent. I think Obama carried it also.

NJ-11 – The safest GOP district in NJ and a rarity in the Northeast, (outside Pennsylvania,) a generically safe GOP district. Short of a fantastic candidate this one won’t be on the radar.

Keep an eye on NJ-03.

State Senate – Up in 2011

State House – Up in 2009 zzzzzzzzzz

New York

Gubernatorial – zzzzzzzzzzz – Name one GOPper who could be elected statewide? – exactly.

US Senate – Both Dems. Despite Hillary’s appointment as SOS this one will be held by whichever Dem is appointed IMHO.

US House –

NY-03 – Pete King is genuinely popular in his district and we should be hoping that the rumours of him making a gubernatorial run turn out to be true. Otherwise we really do need a top tier candidate here – paging Tom Suozzi – but that is unlikely unless the seat is Open.

NY-23 – I expect McHugh to retire in 2010; call it a hunch. If so we will easily find a top tier candidate here otherwise McHugh is perceived as unbeatable.

NY-26 – Democrats in this District just got it wrong in the Primary and we need a top tier candidate against a freshman incumbent who only got 55% first time at bat.

Keep an eye on Dem incumbents in NY-24, NY-25 and NY-29.

State Senate – Yep we have just won control of this chamber for the first time in like 3 million years. It should be 32/30 or maybe 33/29 with one race still undecided. With them all up again in 2010 we need to look for GOP State Senators who are in heavily Democratic areas of NYC and unlikely to run again as they are now free of the influence of Joe Bruni (R-thug) who kept a number of GOP Senators in place long after they wanted to retire.

I think the following are potentially competitive races as open, specials or vulnerable incumbents in 2010:

NY SS-06 – GOP incumbent won with 51.5% of the vote in 2008.

NY SS-11 – Race still undecided if Repub incumbent wins it will be by less than 1000 votes.

NY SS-22 – GOP incumbent in heart of blue NYC.

NY SS-42 – GOP incumbent rumoured to be retiring mid-term.

NY SS-44 – GOP incumbent rumoured to be retiring mid-term.

NY SS-56 – GOP incumbent won with 52.2% of the vote.

NY SS-61 – GOP incumbent won with 53.5% of the vote.

Not to mention that an additional 4 or 5 GOP State Senators will be older than 70 in 2010.

State House – zzzzzzzzzzz

Pennsylvania

Gubernatorial – This one might get complicated. Dem Gov Ed Rendell is term limited and Dem Lt Gov Catherine Baker Knoll has just sadly passed away thus making State Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati the new Lt Gov and he is a Republican. Deep bench on our side including Senator Bob Casey? It goes without saying that the Repubs will have a top tier candidate also. This race makes me nervous as Pennsylvania is less reliably blue than any other state in the North East.

US Senate – 1 of ours (Casey), 1 of theirs (Specter) who is up in 2010. It has been suggested to me that Specter coud be approached to switch which would be fine by me but failing that we have a deep bench and this is a must win if we are to continue the blueing of the Northeast. Specter may yet decide to retire in which case we really are in the box seat for this race.

US House –

PA-05 – This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans.

PA-06 – As probably the single biggest recruiting miss of 2008 this one is infuriating. Gerlach was held to 52% by a 3rd tier candidate and Obama won every county that this district covers. It is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Probably the highest priority house race for the DCCC on offense in the Northeast (open seats notwithstanding).

PA-09 – One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans. This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. Yep just like PA-05.

PA-15 – Like PA-06 Obama carried every county in this one and yep it is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Disappointing 41% for 2008 Dem candidate means we need a top tier challenger here ASAP.

PA-16 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th and 9th unlikely to be a priority.

PA-18 – In theory could be vaguely competitive in 2010 (Bush only got 54% here in 2004) but unlikely given the low hanging fruit in the 6th and 15th.

PA-19 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th, 6th and 16th unlikely to be a priority in 2010.

Watch Dem incumbents in PA-03 and PA-11.

State Senate – The only State chamber still controlled by the GOP in the Northeast. We actually went backwards there this year dropping from 21/28/1 to 20/29/1. And with only half of the State Senate up every two years this one is a hard one to flip in 2010. However the following should probably be targetted IMHO, particularly if they are open races:

PA SS-06 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 53.4% in 2006.

PA SS-10 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.5% in 2006.

PA SS-12 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-16 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 54.2% in 2006.

PA SS-20 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-24 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-26 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 52.2% in 2006.

PA SS-44 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-50 – Incumbent got 53.5% in 2006.

Now I am not suggesting that every State Senate race here will be competitive in 2010 as I understand that Blue counties can have Red parts, but if the Red parts of NYC can be turned then Red parts of Blue counties in PA can be turned also.

State House – In 2008 we managed to increase our margin of control from 102/101 to 104/99; still far too close for comfort. Vulnerable Repubs include:

PA SH-4 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-13 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-15 – Incumbent got 51.5% in 2008.

PA SH-18 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-26 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-28 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-29 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-30 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-31 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-44 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-57 – Incumbent got 51.6% in 2008.

PA SH-61 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-70 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-75 – Incumbent got 53.3% in 2008.

PA SH-102 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-104 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-105 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-106 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-128 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.8% in 2008.

PA SH-129 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-131 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-134 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-138 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-142 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.7% in 2008.

PA SH-146 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 53.3% in 2008.

PA SH-150 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-152 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-155 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-157 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-158 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-160 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-162 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-163 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-164 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-165 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-167 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-168 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-169 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-170 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-172 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-176 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-177 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-178 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-183 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-187 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 52.3% in 2008.

Now I am not suggesting that every State House race here will be competitive in 2010 as I understand that Blue counties can have Red parts, particularly given that State House districts are so small, but if the Red parts of NYC can be turned then Red parts of Blue counties in PA can be turned also. Yep the same thinking that applies to the PA State Senate.

Rhode Island

Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Don Carcieri is term limited! With a bench a mile deep we should be a lock to pick this one up as the GOP bench is almost non existent.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – ALL OURS BABY!

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzz

Vermont

Gubernatorial – If GOP Gov Jim Douglas runs he wins I think. However if he runs for the Senate then we should win here EXCEPT for one nasty wrinkle. In Vermont the Progrssive Party frequently run in statewide races which not only splits the left of centre vote but often allows Republicans to get elected. Surely an accomodation must be able to be found to allow us to have a decent shot at this one in 2010. OTOH GOP Lt Gov Brian Dubie is almost the only statewide candidate that the GOP could present and he could make a race of it.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – ALL OURS BABY!

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzzz

What do you think?

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

View Results

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NJ-04: 700 Volunteers Are Making NJ-04 a Late Breaker!

Cross-posted at Blue Jersey.

I want to share with you how excited I am about the incredible effort people are putting forth this weekend to bring the change we need to Washington, DC. In NJ-04 we’ve got over 700 volunteers talking to voters, handing out literature, making phone calls, and working as hard as we can to win this election.

We’re within striking range, so I’m asking you to please contribute through my ActBlue page. If you’d like to volunteer, please contact our Field Director at pete_at_joshzeitz_dot_com. I also encourage you to take a look at our website.

More after the jump.

Personally, I’m humbled by all these folks out there on my behalf. But I also know that we’re all part of a larger movement to bring progressive change to the halls of Congress and to the White House. Our goal is have a government that champions the interests of average Americans instead of ignoring them, that protects freedom instead of denying it, and that makes sure that the economy works for all of us, not just an elite few.

I still need your help to make this happen in NJ-04. Our opponent, House ‘pro-life’ caucus chairman Chris Smith, is running negative attack ads mentioning me by name as we speak. This is important because it means, for the first time in a very long time, he actually thinks he might lose. Any last minute contributions you can make will go right to spreading our message directly to voters and to get out the vote efforts.

Now is the time to make this seat a late breaker with one last contribution.

Thanks so much,

Josh

NJ-04: Listen to New Zeitz ad on Smith’s Virginia Residency

Today, the Zeitz for Congress campaign unveiled a new radio advertisement titled “Eight Nights.” The ad draws attention to Chris Smith’s failure to live in New Jersey, having spent only eight nights in the state during 2007, and the recent revelation that Smith received nearly $80,000 in tuition breaks reserved only for official Virginia residents.

You can listen to the ad here.

“After twenty-eight years in Congress, Chris Smith has become a creature of Washington. The voters I speak with are shocked and outraged when they learn Chris Smith refuses to live in New Jersey and does not pay our high property taxes. For many of them, learning Smith receives in-state tuition discounts in Virginia is the final straw,” said Josh Zeitz. “It’s not too much to ask that our representative in Congress actually lives in New Jersey.”

Key Facts:

   * Chris Smith spent only eight days in 2007. [PolitickerNJ 4/28/08]

    * Chris Smith is the only member of the New Jersey delegation to not own a home in New Jersey. [PolitickerNJ 4/28/08] He’s saved nearly $60,000 in property taxes by living in Virginia.

    * Chris Smith receives in-state tuition benefits reserved only for official Virginia residents. [Politico 10/20/08]

Josh needs your help to defeat Chris Smith. Please consider volunteering as well as contributing to the campaign. To put it bluntly, the more money we can raise the more play this ad gets on the radio, and the more undecided voters we can reach. We also need volunteers to help get out the vote. To volunteer contact ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com.

NJ-04: Zeitz Campaign Challenges Smith Voter Registration

The Zeitz for Congress campaign today requested that the Mercer County Superintendent of Elections investigate Chris Smith’s voter registration, and revoke it if she discovers fraud.

The Facts:

1) Smith filed for, and received, in-state tuition rates for his children attending Virginia public colleges.

2) In Virginia, dependent students are assigned the residency of their parents for determining tuition rates.

3) Virginia code requires the parents to have “abandoned any previous domicile,” in New Jersey in order to receive the $80,000 tuition breaks.

4) Chris Smith claims he was legally entitled to these benefits reserved for Virginians, but won’t produce the documentation to confirm his claim.

More after the jump.

                                                           

“In the best case scenario, Smith is cheating taxpayers by receiving $80,000 worth of in-state tuition breaks to an out-of-state university,” said Zeitz Campaign Manager Steve D’Amico. “The alternative scenario, of course, is that he has domiciled in Virginia and is eligible for in-state tuition at UVA, but that would mean he has “abandoned” New Jersey and has no legal right to vote in New Jersey or represent its citizens in Congress. Our request to the Superintendent is aimed at discovering the truth.”

A full copy of the Zeitz Campaign request follows:

October 22, 2008

Bettye Monroe

Mercer County Superintendent of Elections, Commissioner of Registration

Dear Superintendent Monroe:

We are writing regarding Chris Smith, candidate for Congress in New Jersey’s Fourth Congressional District and registered voter in Hamilton. We are concerned that Congressman Smith filed a fraudulent voter registration application. In that registration, we believe Smith falsely claimed that he is a New Jersey resident.  

During each of the last few years, Smith filed an application for in-state educational privileges for his children at the University of Virginia (UVA).   UVA, a school supported by the Commonwealth of Virginia, provides in-state tuition benefits only to those who claim Virginia as their domicile. (See attached excerpt from Office of Undergraduate Admissions)   Under Virginia law, “domicile is a technical, legal concept that refers to the present, fixed, home of an individual to which he or she returns following temporary absences and at which he or she intends to remain indefinitely – one’s permanent and lasting home.” Id.

Additionally, Virginia code requires that a “dependent student or unemancipated minor must establish by clear and convincing evidence that for a period of least one year immediately prior to the date of alleged entitlement, the parent or legal guardian through whom the student claims eligibility was domiciled in Virginia and had abandoned any previous domicile.” Id.

We request an explanation of how Chris Smith may vote in New Jersey after having “abandoned” New Jersey as a domicile.   Smith’s voluntary application for Virginia in-state educational benefits demonstrates his choice that Virginia, not New Jersey, is his domicile. Smith cannot be a registered voter in New Jersey and a Virginia domicile at the same time, particularly as Virginia requires that its domiciles “intend to remain indefinitely.” Smith cannot tell Virginia that he intends to remain in Virginia indefinitely while simultaneously claiming that he is domiciled in New Jersey.   Since no one compelled Smith to apply for in-state educational benefits, his voluntary act of filing the in-state tuition application clearly signals that he has chosen to be a Virginia resident.

For these reasons, we respectfully request that you revoke Smith’s registration. Given the timing of the election, we request that you rule on this request immediately.

Sincerely,                                                          

ZEITZ FOR CONGRESS  

NJ(!)-04-Chris Smith pays IN STATE tuition at U.Va.

This story at Politico is truly amazing. Josh Zeitz’s opponent, long-time incumbent (and ‘pro-life’ House caucus chair) Chris Smith, is paying in state tuition for his child enrolled at the University of Virginia. Smith is, in theory, representing the people of the Fourth District of New Jersey.

As if we didn’t already know that Chris Smith was out of touch with his New Jersey constituents. We learned not long ago that, in the last eight years, he has spent maybe two dozen nights a year in his home district (which is not in, say, Alaska, but only a reasonable two hours-plus by train from Washington, DC). He is basically a full-time resident of the great state (no disrespect meant here) of Virginia.

More after the jump.

This is a huge story that has the potential to reshape the media narrative in this fight. A number of major bloggers are covering this already.

Matt Stoller at Open Left has a diary up, as does Josh Marshall at TPM, and Matthew Yglesias at Think Progress. Blue Jersey has front paged this story as well, and is doing a great job of getting the word out to New Jersey Democrats.

This is a wave election, and this is our best chance in more than 25 years to sweep out a pro-deregulation, pro-Bush foreign policy conservative who is radical on social issues, especially those related to reproductive rights. Remember that Smith has introduced, on twenty two occasions, bills that would outlaw the common, everyday birth control pill and the IUD.

Josh Zeitz needs your help. Please consider volunteering as well as donating. To volunteer contact steve_at_joshzeitz_dot_com.

Thanks!

NJ-04: Josh Zeitz on Chris Smith’s Two Decades of Debate Dodging

Cross posted at Blue Jersey.

Dear Rep. Smith:

It’s been over a month since I first invited you to join me in a series of public debates or forums so that we can provide the voters in New Jersey’s Fourth Congressional District an opportunity to weigh their electoral options.  

Over the past six weeks my campaign has placed phone calls to your office and issued public statements inviting you to debate.  As a show of good will, I also sent a personal letter to your attention, along with a copy of Allen Guelzo’s fine new book on the Lincoln-Douglas debates of 1858.  Disappointingly, we have received no response from you or your staff.  

Among your colleagues, you stand out for your consistent refusal to debate your opponents.  Barack Obama and John McCain are debating each other on Friday.  Sarah Palin and Joe Biden are scheduled to debate next month.  Frank Lautenberg and Dick Zimmer will soon debate (and, along those lines, Rob Andrews and Frank Lautenberg debated last spring).  John Adler and Chris Myers have debated twice, and Linda Stender and Leonard Lance have already debated each other once. But you have not publicly debated an opponent in almost twenty years.  Your refusal to engage in the electoral process suggests a fundamental disrespect for the citizens of Central Jersey, who deserve much more from their candidates.

As you know, our economy is in a deep crisis. This week in Congress, you are weighing the merits of the $700 billion bailout proposed by the Bush Administration. Once Congress recesses over the next few days, we should honor the voters of the Fourth Congressional District with a vibrant debate on the future of our country.  Now more than ever, it is crucial that the voters know where their candidates stand on the issues facing our nation.  The stakes are simply too high for continued debate-dodging.

I have reserved space and time at the public libraries in Brick and Hamilton. I originally planned to use these venues to stage town-hall meetings to discuss our troubled economy. But given the seriousness of the issues facing our country, I would like to invite you to hold joint appearances at both locations. Of course, we would agree to turn the program over to an impartial, third-party group.  My campaign has already been contacted by Veterans4Education, a nonpartisan group of Iraq and Afghanistan veterans currently studying at New Jersey colleges and universities.  They sponsored a fine debate in the 3rd District and have invited us to participate in a similar forum.  With your agreement, I would invite Veterans4Education to assume responsibility for one of our joint appearances.  If any group deserves to press its candidates on the issues, it is Veterans4Education.  I hope you will join me in showing them the respect they have earned in service of our country.

We have reserved the following dates and venues:

Brick Branch Library: October 9th, 6PM

Hamilton Public Library October 23rd, 7PM

If these dates do not fit into your schedule, I am happy to accommodate your calendar.

It should be noted neither of these libraries is sponsoring a debate. Rater, they have offered to provide free meeting space.  

Sincerely,

Joshua Zeitz  

NJ-04: Bush-McCain-Smith Iraq Policy Hurts New Jersey

Cross-posted at Blue Jersey.

Congressman Frank Pallone and I hosted a conference call earlier today to discuss what the war in Iraq has cost New Jersey and why New Jersey can’t afford another four years of the failed Bush policies in Iraq that Chris Smith and John McCain want to continue. To see exactly what the war in Iraq has cost New Jersey, go to National Priorities.org.

On the call I emphasized the following:

· I support a responsible end to the war in Iraq so that we can invest in America’s urgent domestic priorities like renewable energy, and break our addiction to foreign oil as well as lower gas and electricity costs.

· Chris Smith and John McCain have supported George Bush every step of the way on Iraq, from believing faulty intelligence, to believing we would be greeted as liberators, to believing the war will pay for itself with Iraqi oil.

· Each month, the United States spends $10 billion a month in Iraq – money which could be used to address domestic priorities like ensuring affordable health care, rebuilding our infrastructure or hiring more teachers or public safety officers.

· Incredibly, Iraq is right now holding onto $79 billion in excess oil revenues. We’re spending $10 billion a month to rebuild Iraq instead of using that money to create jobs here in America.

· The citizens of the 4th Congressional district have paid $2.2 billion for the war effort. That money could have been used to provide every home in the 4th Congressional District with Renewable Electricity, with enough money left over to help provide affordable health coverage for our residents.

That $2.2 billion could:

· Provide 203,137 People with Health Care for One Year

· Power 3,096,562 Homes with Renewable Electricity for One Year

· Hire 37,775 Public Safety Officers for One Year

· Provide 724,756 Children with Health Care for One Year

· Provide 28,856 Port Container Inspectors for One Year

· We can’t keep doing what we’re doing. We need change at all levels of government.

· Chris Smith and John McCain have no plan to bring our troops home.

· We need to elect a Democratic President and a Democratic Congress to bring our troops home and invest in our country’s future.

The campaign is entering a critical phase and I need your support. You can contribute at my ActBlue page. If you’d like to volunteer, please contact ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com. Please visit Josh’s website to learn more about what I stand for.