cross-posted at Election Inspection
In a follow up to my races to watch segment, we take a look at the primary results of the states that have already passed the filing deadlines. Illinois held its primary a couple weeks ago and Maryland held its primary on the same day as its Presidential primary.
There has been good news and bad news in these races but most of the news has been good. Strong Democratic challengers have been emerging in these states and things look good for taking the fight directly to the Republicans as well as sending a message to the Democratic establishment.
In Illinois, we were watching the 3rd, 6th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 14th and 18th. On the bubble, especially if Obama is the nominee, were the 13th, 16th, and 18th.
We faced great dissapointment in the 3rd district as Mark Pera failed to defeat Dan Lipinski in the primary. Lipinski is expected to easily hold the seat come november so at a minimum, a Democrat will hold this seat, even if it is Lipinski.
In the 6th CD, Iraqi War veteran Colonel Jill Morganthaler easily won the primary and takes on Peter Roskam, who narrowly defeats Tammy Duckworth in 2006. The 6th CD is supposed to be a throw away race but Morganthaler is a good candidate and has begun to raise decent amounts of money.
In the 8th district, Democratic Congresswoman Melissa Bean won handily and faces lower tier opposition in the general election and sshould easily win here. This is one race the Republicans had hoped to contest heavily.
In the 10th CD, Dan Seals easily won a chance to have a re-match and with his added name recognitition from last year and additional funds, this race should be a great race to watch. Democrats have an excellent pick up opportunity here.
In the 11th CD, Debbie Halvorsen, a top tier recruit moves on in her race and app[ears to be the favorite to win in this Democratic pick up opportunity.
In the 13th CD, Businessman Scott Harper has seriously begun raising funds and could make this race competetive. If Obama is at the top of the ticket, Harper would have some significant Democratis winds blowing at his back and that could help push him over the top, but he needs some early support to make sure he has some legs to stand on when that wind hits him.
In the 14th CD, it appears that Bill Foster has pulled off a narrow victory over 2006 nominee John Laesch/ Foster will be the candidate in the special election against Republican Jim Oberweis and is in a statistical deadheat despite his lack of name recognition. Foster has a great chance to pick up the seat that once belonged to Denny Hastert and what a glorious day it will be when that happens.
In the 16th CD, Robert Abboud got past the primary and is looking like a decent candidate. Abboud is another tailwind candidate that needs to have legs to stand on in the event that Obama turns this state super blue this year.
The Democrats have no candidate in the 18th CD after Dick Versace dropped out but they will be able to pick one. No candidate has emerged as a predictable choice yet but once one does, this should be a competetive seat. Potential cash defecit to the Republican shouldn’t be a problem with the cash advantage the DCCC has. As long as a strong candidate emerges, this seat will be competetive.
The 19th CD has fallen off my watch list as the strongest candidate in the race, Joe McMenamin ran a lousy campaign and failed to get past the primary. The Democrat in the race, Daniel Davis, is penniless and does not appear to be in any position to take on Shimkus. If Davis could even be able to take advantage of the Obama effect even with support from the netroots at this time is questionable. It would take a ton of DCCC money in this district to win and I don’t see that happening.
Maryland is a bastion of good news today.
In the 1st CD, Moderate Republican Wayne Gilchrest lost his primary to a super conservative republican in State Senator Andy Harris. The Democratic nominee, Frank Kratovil is well positioned to take a hold of the Democratic and Independent vote in this district and hopefully steal some moderate Republican support too. This is the best chance Democrats have had to take this district in a long long time.
The great news continue in the 4th CD, where Donna Edwards sent a message to the Democratic establishment saying that we the people won’t take their lack of effectiveness much longer by defeating Bush Dog Democrat Al Wynn. This is a great day when we can send better Democrats to Washington.
In the final race of this post, Maryland’s 6th CD will be a match up of Republican Roscoe Bartlett, who has a very low supply of cash against former Frederick Mayor Jennifer Dougherty. Dougherty defeated the 2006 nominee, Andrew Duck, in the primary and could be the strongest candidate the Dems could send. This should be an interesting race.
I encourage all readers to take a good look at the races and put their support and donations behind these candidates. The more races we open up to a challenge for Democrats. the harder it will be for Republicans to try to focus their efforts on beating Democrats in endangered seats.