Author: skywrnchsr509

The races to watch…Bad news for Texas

Texas is one of those states that is causing problems for Democrats in general.  While all but 3 of its 32 congressional districts are not in play, 2 of those that are in play are held by Democrats and one of those is a major Republican target.  

A strong play in other states will force Republicans to play more defense than offense which is why it is imperative that we offer assisstance to the candidates that we identify as strong contenders in any way we can.  Whether that is spending time voulnteering for their campaigns, sending money, or blogging about them to raise internet awareness like we do here.  

I send many thanks to some posters here that have made me aware of candidates like Benjamin Lodmell who, if given the money and time, could make a solid challenger in a Republican district forcing the Republicans to spend some of the precious little money that they have.  As of the third quarter fundraising, the Democrats have enough money to spend slightly over 200,000 dollars on everyone of the 104 races I have thus far identified and still have enough money left over to match the NRCC dollar for dollar in every race they spend money on.  

Here in Texas, the first race I’ll cover is the only good news in the state.  the 10th CD is the one Democratic pick up opportunity I see in this state at this time.  Larry Doherty and Dan Grant are going to battle it out for the Democratic nomination but I believe that Larry Doherty, a Judge on the television show Texas Justice, and successful Houston Attorney, will come out on top in this race.  Larry Doherty is then well positioned to take this fight to the Republicans.  His CoH totals after the third quarter were slightly more than 100,000 behind Republican Congressman Micheal McCaul.  With an infusion of cash and some help in this district, we can once again take the fight to the Republicans.  

Now, the bad news begins, the next 2 districts are Democratic defense districts.  To no one’s surprise, Texas 22 and Congressman Nick Lampson is on this list.  Lampson won this district last year after Tom DeLay left a sour taste in the mouth of the constiuents but now it appears this district is ready to head back to its roots and elect a Republican.  Lampson has been raising money like crazy and has over 800,000 in the bank.  His main opposition is split in a 3 way primary with a few gnats flying around waiting for the time to strike to reach the top tier.  Former Sugarland Mayor Dean Hrbacek, Navy Veteran Peter Olsen, and the 06 nominee Shelley Sekula-Gibbs are all raising serious cash (over 100,000 dollars, Sekula Gibbs has over 600,000 at the top of the list) but Former Pasadena Mayor John Manlove, Judge Jim Squier and State Representative Robert Talton are all starting to raise money and could seriously compete in this race.  A 6 way primary could be just what the doctor ordered to save Lampson.  

Texas 23 is my final race here, where Ciro Rodriguez handily defeated the incumbent Republican in 2006.  While I can’t locate an FEC report for Ciro, the green papers list one of his opponents, businessman and attorney Francisco Canseco has raised over 800,000 dollars but has a primary challenger in the form of County Commissioner Lyle Larson, who enetered the race just before the deadline.  

These 2 seats could be very intersting and it could also be interesting to watch the only other piece of decent news coming out of the state.  While Glenn Melancon in the 4th district is unable to make my list here and now, he may be able to do so in the future.  I will be going back over some races and doing additions as the 4th quarter fundraising numbers become available, so keep checking for updates.  

Races to look at Maryland style

In Maryland, we have some generally lousy news.  There aren’t very many pickup opportunities in this state, just 2, though 3 seats are on my radar watch as there is a Democratic primary to get rid of a Bush Dog Democrat in this state.  

In Maryland, we have some great news.  The reason for the above lousy news is that the 2 seats that we have a shot to pick up in this state are the only 2 seats that Republicans hold in this state.  Maryland has the potential to become the next Massachusetts, a complete Democratic group in both the Senate, Governor, and House of Representatives.  

This state is also expected to go heavily to the Dems inthe presidential race and coat tails could play a significant part in any of the races below.  

In Maryland’s first congressional district, everything hinges on the Republican primary.  Republican Congressman Wayne Gilchrest is fairly moderate and would be a safe bet to win re-election should he survive his primary challenge.  State Senator Andy Harris is a real nutcase and is backed by the Club for Growth.  Should he win the primary, like I hope he will, this would give the Democrats a real opportunity to pick up this seat.  Frank Kratovil appears to be the candidate that will come out on top in the Dem primary, he has the most money raised thus far and has an active campaign.  Should Gilchrest lose, this is a seat that we should quickly go after.  

In Maryland’s 4th congressional district, Donna Edwards is again challenging Bush dog Dem Al Wynn to a primary and we really need her to win.  This seat is safe for a good Democrat, similar to the race I discussed in my last posting about Illinois and Dan Lipinski.  Our chance to make a move and steer not only the Congress, but the Democratic party as a whole in the direction this country needs them to go starts with primary challenges like these and Donna Edwards needs our full support.  

In the final district in this state, the 6th Congressional district, according to the FEC Reports on the green papers, Andrew Duck, a 20 year military veteran who served in Iraq and Bosnia has outraised the incumbent Republican Roscoe Bartlett and has more cash on hand as well.  Duck was the 06 nominee and held Bartlett to 59% of the vote, significantly lower than the 67.4% he’d gotten just 2 years earlier.  Duck was a political unknown when he started that race and starts this year with significantly higher name recognition.  

Beyond these 3 races, there are no significant challenges to any of the Democratic incumbents in either the primary or in the general election and all Democratic incumbetns should be re-elected easily.  

IL: The Races to Watch… Thus Far

With a few filing deadlines past, I think its time we take a look at which races we should be looking at in the coming year.  There will be many races where fundraising will be key and netroots support can make that fundraising possible.  

Illinois is going to be an interesting place come this November, especially if Barack Obama is the Democrats presidential nominee.  With Dick Durbin a safe bet for his Senate Seat, the Democrats could have 2 very big coattails for their downballot races and there are many opportuities in this state.  

We have a great chance to get rid of a DINO in Dan Lipinski early on in the 3rd Congressional District with Mark Pera, who would then be a safe bet to win come November.  It is imperative that we give Pera our full support early on as he will need every dollar to overcome the now splinterd anti-Lipinski vote.  Everyone here understands that we will need Democrats of all shapes and colors to overcome the Republicans, but what we really need are good Democrats, especially in Districts that should have good Democrats like this one should.  

The second race to watch is the 6th congressional district, where 30 year army veteran, local businesswoman, and the former director of the Illinois Department of Homeland Security, Colonel Jill Morganthaler is running.  While the current holder of the seat, Peter Roskam beat Tammy Duckworth by the skin of this teeth, he did so during a year that has no presidential or senatorial coattails to assist the downballot races.  Col. Morganthaler can give Roskam yet another race for his life and anywhere we can put Republicans on the defense is one less place they can attack us and leaves less money for them to defend other seats.  

The Democratic held 8th CD is next on my list, though at first look, it appears Congresswoman Melissa Bean will escape a real challenge this year.  The main Republican candidate is businessman Steve Greenberg, and while he is raising some money, Congresswoman Bean has over 1 million dollars more than Greenburg has all together and Greenburg will have to spend that money beating back a couple of minor primary challengers and introducing himself to the district.  I expect this district, which Republicans hope to contest, won’t be much of a race, but Bean has had recent close contests, is listed as a Frontline Dem by the DCCC and is on the NRCC target list, so we’ll keep an eye on this race until it proves to be the blowout I’m expecting.  

the 10th congressional district will see a Democratic primary between 2006 nominee Dan Seals, and a Clinton Administration official, Jay Footlik.  Seals is the favorite to win the primary at this time and is raising significant amounts of money.  He will once again challenge Republican Mark Kirk and with his name recognition higher after last years close defeat, the DCCC should play heavily here.  Coattails can also play a part in this race as well.  Just like 06, this race will once again be a race to watch (and spend money on)

In the 11th CD, state senate majority leader Debbie Halvorsen is in the race for this open seat.  It appears that New Lenox Mayor Tim Balderman will be her opponent though he has to face some minor primary challengers first.  Halvorsen has significant support and name recognition as her state senate district overlaps this congressional district.  I’d give Halvorsen a slight edge in this race thus far and it is by far one of our best pick up opportunities in the state.  

For my last major pick up opportunity, we go to Illinois 14th district, formerly held by the Congressman no one on this site will miss in Denny Hastert.  John Laesch is the 2006 nominee and he is back again this year but has had some lackluster fundraising numbers thus far, not including his 4th quarter totals.  Meanwhile, Bill Foster, a scientist and local businessman has over 500,000 cash on hand and appears to be the favorite to get the Dem nod, especially after getting the endorsement of Senator Durbin.  The Republicans will have a serious primary between State Senator Chris Lauzen and the businessman who has lost a race for just about everything, Jim Oberweis.  Oberweis appears to be the favorite of the Republican establishment but Lauzen has raised more money.  Lets hope they beat the crap out of each other and that things get really really nasty.  

On the bottom of my listing here, are 4 races that have candidates who seems to be doing ok in fundraising but aren’t excelling, though with a little netroots help, may just make life even more miserable for the GOP in this state and nationwide.  

Scott Harper in the 13th congressional district, Robert Abboud in the 16th congressional district, the 18th congressional district, where Democrats will choose who the nominee will be after the only filed candidate, Dick Versace, dropped out, and Joe McMenamin in the 19th congressional district have all raised over 50,000 dollars and could become thorns in the side of a GOP that is going to be stretched to its limits.  These lower races here could also burst onto the scene in a similar fashion as those of Carol Shea-Porter and Nancy Boyda, especially if Obama is the nominee.  Illinois has the potential to be a hotbed of Democratic activity next year and we need to give them all the support we can.  

I’ll be doing the rest of the states shortly and then intend to update the lists as things go on.