Tag: PA-18

That the Northeast has been trending blue in recent cycles is self evidently true. Will it continue in 2010?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

Whilst current polls don’t look too good for incumbent Democrats across the Northeast I believe that we have hit the bottom. Now that Health Care reform is done I believe that the polls will rebound for Democrats, particularly in the Northeast.

Thus it is my contention that despite the current challenging environment the Northeast will continue its long term move towards the Democratic Party, despite a sure to be spiteful debate on cap and trade and despite an economic outlook that is improving in fits and starts.

The US Census defines the Northeast region as including 9 states as follows: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. And aggregating across all 9 states the lay of the land looks like this:

States that voted for Obama: 9/9

Governors: 5/9

US Senators: 15/18 (Counting Sanders and Leiberman as Dems)

House Districts: 69/83

State Senates: 8/9

State Houses: 9/9

Where I think a race is a safe Democratic hold I won’t be saying anything about it.

Going state by state then:

Connecticut

Gubernatorial – With GOP Gov Jodi Rell not running again it is very likely to be a Dem pickup.

US Senate – Both Dems. If Dodd runs he may lose for any other Dem it is a safe hold.

US House – All Dem, all Safe (including Himes in the 4th.)

State Senate – 24D/12R – Safe

State House – 114D/37R – Safe

Maine

Gubernatorial – Whilst it seems that half of Maine is running for the open Gubernatorial mansion I believe that the Democratic nature of the state will lead to a Democratic retention.

US Senate – Both Repubs! Not on ballot in 2010

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 20D/15R – Safe (Margin is growing).

State House – 95D/55R – Safe

Massachusetts –

Gubernatorial – Whilst Deval Patrick really hasn’t set the world on fire the 2nd tier nature of his potential opponents should see him safely re-elected.

US Senate – Both Dems (at least after the upcoming special election.)

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 35D/5R – Safe

State House – 144D/16R – Safe

New Hampshire

Gubernatorial – Safe Dem

US Senate – definitely a race to watch. I will be stunned if Hodes loses here. Hodes has almost $1 million dollars COH and there is a divisive GOP primary in the offing also. New Hampshire, whilst less Blue than almost all of the other states in the North East, is not going to elect a Republican as US Senator in 2010.

US House –

NH-01 – There has been a lot of focus on both of the New Hampshire congressional races. I don’t get it to be honest – Shea Porter will win, not by much but she will win.

NH-02 – Again a lot of focus here including a lot of hand wringing about how vulnerable it is to switch. Not gonna happen folks. Gore, Kerry and Obama all won this district – Obama by 13 points – and we have a quality field of candidates  running AND a divisive GOP Primary. Lead Dem Ann McLane Kuster has 250K COH as at the end of September.

State Senate – 14/10 – No change in 2008 really locks in our 2006 gains. If this one flips it will be a bad night for us.

State House – 223D/176R – Safe

New Jersey

Gubernatorial – Repub – Not on ballot in 2010

US Senate – Both Dems

US House –

NJ-02 – If State Senator Jeff Van Drew finally steps up and runs this race becomes very competitive. Hopefully he won’t wait until 2012. If State Sen Jim Whelan runs it could also get competitive in this district that Obama won 54/45 and that Bush won by less than 1% in 2004.

NJ-03 – Adler is safe.

NJ-04 – Gore carried this district and Obama lost 47/52 so a good candidate here is a must to get it on the radar instead of the second tier candidates we have run thus far.

NJ-05 – Unlikely to be on the radar in 2010.

NJ-07 – This district is winnable particularly with a freshman GOP incumbent. Obama carried it 51/48 also. Surprising then that there is no declared Dem candidate yet. Potentially a top tier race that will probably be a big miss for the DCCC.

NJ-11 – The safest GOP district in NJ and a rarity in the Northeast, (outside Pennsylvania,) a generically safe GOP district. Short of a fantastic candidate this one won’t be on the radar.

State Senate – Up in 2011

State House – Up in 2011

New York

Gubernatorial – Safe for Cuomo.

US Senate – Gillibrand will get over the line against 3rd tier opponents and Schumer is Safe too.

US House –

NY-03 – Unless Suozzi or another top tier candidate emerges then this will be a big miss for the DCCC.

NY-13 – McMahon is safe.

NY-20 – Murphy will prevail – bet on it. He had almost 1 Mill COH at the end of September!

NY-23 – One of two really competitive races in Dem held districts in NY. I think Owens will prevail, especially against Hoffman.

NY-24 – After a scare in 2008 Arcuri will be safe.

NY-25 – Maffei is safe.

NY-26 – Unless a good candidate pops up this will be a big miss for the DCCC.

NY-29 – Massa has his work cut out for him – that’s for sure. But for me Massa by a nose. Why? When was the last time the NY GOP won a District off us? Massa’s 500K COH as at end of September will help too.

State Senate – 32D/30R – A chamber to watch – big time. I expect us to hang onto or increase our majority.

State House – 109D/41R – Safe

Pennsylvania

Gubernatorial – A real worry this one could flip.

US Senate – 2 Dems – Whoever emerges from the Dem primary will beat Toomey. The good folk of Pennsylvania wouldn’t be crazy enough to sent Toomey to the US Senate would they?

US House –

PA-03 – Dahlkemper will have her work cut out to win this District that Obama JUST lost. Race to watch.

PA-04 – Altmire will be safe.

PA-05 – This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans.

PA-06 – Generic Dem beats generic Rep – Period. Doug Pike’s massive COH advantage (largely self funded) of 750K as at end of September should help him pull this one out.  

PA-07 – Not quite sure why so many people are predicting this will flip. Top tier candidates for both parties makes for a tough race but this district was won by Gore, Kerry and Obama. Add in a competitive GOP Primary and it is Dem for me.

PA-09 – One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans. This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. Yep just like PA-05.

PA-11 – Against Lou Barletta Kanjorski will be fine. Tough part of Pennsylvania for Democrats though.

PA-12 – Murtha is vulnerable but i expect him to survive (just).

PA-15 – Like PA-06 Obama carried every county in this one and yep it is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Dem Callahan is a top tier challenger and is fundraising like one (325K COH as at end of Spetember).

PA-16 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th and 9th unlikely to be a priority.

PA-18 – In theory could be vaguely competitive in 2010 (Bush only got 54% here in 2004) but unlikely given the low hanging fruit in the 6th and 15th.

PA-19 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th, 6th and 16th unlikely to be a priority in 2010, unless Todd Platts lands the Government job he is chasing. Even then unlikely to be competitive.

State Senate – 20D/30R – Safe GOP

State House – 104D/99R – Definitely a chamber to watch.

Rhode Island

Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Don Carcieri is term limited so either a Dem or former Repub Sen now Indy Lincoln Chaffee will be elected. The GOP bench here is terrible.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 35D/5R Safe

State House – 69D/6R Safe

Vermont

Gubernatorial – With GOP Gov Douglas not running the GOP have scored their best possible candidate in Lt Gov Brian Dubie; who will lose to a Dem (unless the Progressive Party act as a spoiler).

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 28D/7R Safe

State House – 95D/48R Safe

So with 10 months until election day it is off to the races!

What do you think?

In sports, people spend a lot of time talking about “prospects”, the young talent in the minor leagues that they expect to see in the major leagues in the future. I thought it would be an interesting thread if we talked about folks who are now in the “minors” (ie state legislatures, mayors, and other fields) that would be good candidates for major offices (Gov, Sen, US House) sometime soon.

So, without further delay, here are five profiles of people to watch. I’m interested in seeing what other prospects are out there….

1. Andrew Romanoff (Colorado)

Who Is He: Former Speaker of the Colorado State House, represented the 6th State House District

Where Would He Run: CO-Sen? CO-Gov?

Why Isn’t He In Congress Already: Romanoff had the misfortune of retiring just as every single possible slot in the state delegation that’s winnable for a Dem got filled. If someone less quirky than Bill Ritter was Governor, he likely would have been tapped for an appointment to Salazar’s vacated Senate seat. The other problem for Romanoff is that even though Dems control the trifecta in Colorado, it would be very difficult and risky to draw another Dem seat, as Markey has to be shored up as does John Salazar (though much less so); there almost certainly has to be at least one GOP seat based in Colorado Springs, and probably, although not certainly, another based in Douglas County.

Theoretically, he could challenge Ritter or Bennet in the primary, though that would be a mighty tough slog. Ritter is vulnerable on his left flank to an extent. DeGette’s too popular in the 1st, so unless Obama appoints her to something, that avenue is closed.

2. Christopher Hurst (Washington State)

Who Is He: State Representative for the 31st House District in Southern King and Pierce Counties

Where Would He Run: WA-08

Why He Isn’t In Congress Already: Hurst has considered running for Congress in Washington’s 8th District against Dave Reichert before. I’m convinced the reason he hasn’t is that he’d have a tough time making it through a primary, as the bulk of the Democratic vote is up in the Bellevue area. Hurst is from the Southern part of the district which is less populated and generally more conservative.

If you could get him through a primary, he matches up perfectly against Reichert-he’s a former cop, so Reichert can’t out law and order him, and he’s also a proven vote getter in swingy South King and the conservative Pierce County.

3. Sean Logan (Pennsylvania)

Who He Is: State Senator for the 45th District, lives in the Pittsburgh suburb of Monroeville

Where He Would Run: PA-18 or its successor

Why Isn’t He In Congress Already: Logan has been repeatedly wooed as a challenger for Tim Murphy, but has declined. Logan doesn’t actually live in the 18th, which is insanely gerrymandered, but lives just over the line in Mike Doyle’s 14th.

Logan may simply be waiting for redistricting, as the map is likely to be drawn by a judge, and there is absolutely no way Murphy, who is ethically on shaky ground, will get anywhere near as Republican a seat as he has now. Even as is, the 18th isn’t a great seat for Murphy; trust me when I say that the PVI here lies by at least 3 points, and that a local Dem could easily win here. Obama and Kerry were both terrible fits for the 18th, and Gore only lost here by 5.

4. Rafael Anchia/Kirk England (Texas)

Who Are They: Texas State House Reps for the 103rd (Anchia) and 106th (England) Districts, England is a former Republican who switched parties

Where Will They Run: Texas’s new “33rd” District

Why Aren’t They In Congress Already: Here’s the situation; prior to the DeLaymander, metro Dallas had two pretty solid Dem seats, the 30th a minority majority district based in Dallas, and the Arlington based 24th, held by Martin Frost which was a “coalition” district. In re-redistricting, the 24th got chopped up among several districts with a lot ending up in a new GOP 24th and Pete Sessions 32nd. This has led to both of these districts starting to fall off a cliff for the GOP because of explosive latino growth. McCain only won 24 with 55% and 32 with a mere 53%, danger territory by Texas standards.

So, unless they want a Pennsylvania style disaster in North Texas, they’re going to have to create some sort of Democratic district to pack all of the Dems together. There’s a fair amount of debate as to how they will do this, with one thought being that it will end up as a Latino plurality Fort Worth based seat, while some others feel that they’ll recreate something like the old 24th and make it a coalition district.

Both Anchia and England are well placed for whatever they create, and I have to think that one of them will almost certainly run for the new seat.

Not that it’s a surprise, but we can now officially cross off Democratic Rep. Allyson Schwartz from the open seat watch:

Aides to Rep. Allyson Schwartz say the third-term Pennsylvania Democrat will not seek her party’s nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2010.

Schwartz was among those widely talked about as a possible candidate, and had considered a Senate run. But after Arlen Specter’s party switch, Schwartz plans to support him and will focus on having a larger role in health-care policy in the House of Representatives.

Meanwhile, the Pennsylvania GOP, apparently unhappy-to-fearful with the idea of a Toomey general election candidacy and the havoc that it might wreak downballot, is searching fiercely for an alternative. The Hill mentions ex-Gov. Tom Ridge and current Reps. Jim Gerlach, Charlie Dent and Tim Murphy as possibilities. I’m not sure if any of those guys (particularly Ridge, who isn’t exactly a popular figure within the GOP’s base himself) would be interested in that kind of fight, but who the hell knows anymore.

We had a pretty good night on election night in the Northeast. We cleaned house. We nailed 1 GOP Senator, 6 House of Reps Districts, 1 State Senate and held on to all of the State Senates, State Houses, US House Reps and US Senators we had coming into this cycle.

That the Northeast is rapidly realigning towards team Blue is undeniable!

But the work my friends has merely begun. Forget the bunkum about us being irretrievably on defense in 2010 come below the fold to see who should be in our sights in 2010 as we stay on offense in the Northeast……..

Just to avoid any debate, (and because I got it wrong last time I tried this) the US Census defines the Northeast region as including 9 states as follows: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. And aggregating across all 9 states the lay of the land looks like this:

States that voted for Obama: 9/9

Governors: 6/9

US Senators: 14/18 (Counting Sanders and Leiberman as Dems)

House Districts: 68/83

State Senates: 8/9

State Houses: 9/9

Where I think a race is a safe Democratic hold I won’t be saying much about it such as all of our Northeast US Senators and US House races on the ballot in 2010.

Going state by state then:

Connecticut

Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Jodi Rell is quite popular and will likely be looking for a 3rd term. OTOH the Dem bench is VERY deep and a top tier challenger should be able to be found. Problem is who would want to take on such a popular pol?

US Senate – Both Dems (Hey Lieberman isn’t up for re-election in 2010 Dodd is.)

US House – ALL OURS BABY! – Keep an eye on CT-04

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzz

Maine

Gubernatorial – Dem John Baldacci probably won’t run again which on balance makes this gubernatorial chamber an easier hold for us than otherwise. The only possible exception to this is if either of the GOP US Senators run – a highly unlikely thing to happen.

US Senate – Both Repubs! Not on ballot in 2010

US House – ALL OURS BABY!

State Senate – We actually added to our margin here in 2008 moving it from 18/17 to 20/15 and yep they are all up again in 2010. A chamber to watch but we should be ok in this increasingly reliable state.

State House – zzzzzzzzzz

Massachusetts – aka nothing to see here move right along!

Gubernatorial – zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

US Senate – Both Dems zzzzzzzzzzzz

US House – ALL OURS BABY! zzzzzzzzzzzzz

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzzzz

New Hampshire

Gubernatorial – If Dem Gov Lynch runs he will win. If, as I hope, Lynch runs for the Senate then look for 2nd CD Rep Hodes to run and win for team Blue instead. My how New Hampshire has quickly shifted to us.

US Senate – 1 Dem 1 Rep and the Rep is on the ballot – Judd Gregg. Gregg has a target on his back already and I expect either Gov Lynch or Rep Hodes to run and for this one to be a barn burner.

US House – ALL OURS BABY! – Keep an eye on NH-01

State Senate – No change in 2008 really locks in our 2006 gains.

State House – Nothing really to see here we held onto almost all of our 2006 gains, dropping from 231 to 225 out of 400 we will hang onto this one in 2010 IMHO.

New Jersey

Gubernatorial – On ballot in 2009 (Go Corzine). Any Dem would be favoured to win this one as NJ residents hate all their pols they just hate Democrats less than Republicans.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House –

NJ-02 – If State Senator Jeff Van Drew finally steps up and runs this race becomes very competitive. Hopefully he won’t wait until 2012. If State Sen Jim Whelan runs it could also get competitive in this district that I suspect Obama won and that Bush won by less than 1% in 2004. Will have a Cook Dem PVI.

NJ-04 – Gore carried this district and I think Obama only just fell short so a good candidate here is a must to get it on the radar instead of the second tier candidates we have run thus far.

NJ-05 – Gee I hope 2008 Dem candidate Dennis Shulman runs again in 2010. Holding a GOP incumbent to 56% in this reasonably strong GOP district is a fair effort. Otherwise this one won’t be on the radar in 2010.

NJ-07 – I don’t know what happened here this year but a top tier candidate who is NOT Linda Stender is required. This district is winnable particulalrly with a freshman GOP incumbent. I think Obama carried it also.

NJ-11 – The safest GOP district in NJ and a rarity in the Northeast, (outside Pennsylvania,) a generically safe GOP district. Short of a fantastic candidate this one won’t be on the radar.

Keep an eye on NJ-03.

State Senate – Up in 2011

State House – Up in 2009 zzzzzzzzzz

New York

Gubernatorial – zzzzzzzzzzz – Name one GOPper who could be elected statewide? – exactly.

US Senate – Both Dems. Despite Hillary’s appointment as SOS this one will be held by whichever Dem is appointed IMHO.

US House –

NY-03 – Pete King is genuinely popular in his district and we should be hoping that the rumours of him making a gubernatorial run turn out to be true. Otherwise we really do need a top tier candidate here – paging Tom Suozzi – but that is unlikely unless the seat is Open.

NY-23 – I expect McHugh to retire in 2010; call it a hunch. If so we will easily find a top tier candidate here otherwise McHugh is perceived as unbeatable.

NY-26 – Democrats in this District just got it wrong in the Primary and we need a top tier candidate against a freshman incumbent who only got 55% first time at bat.

Keep an eye on Dem incumbents in NY-24, NY-25 and NY-29.

State Senate – Yep we have just won control of this chamber for the first time in like 3 million years. It should be 32/30 or maybe 33/29 with one race still undecided. With them all up again in 2010 we need to look for GOP State Senators who are in heavily Democratic areas of NYC and unlikely to run again as they are now free of the influence of Joe Bruni (R-thug) who kept a number of GOP Senators in place long after they wanted to retire.

I think the following are potentially competitive races as open, specials or vulnerable incumbents in 2010:

NY SS-06 – GOP incumbent won with 51.5% of the vote in 2008.

NY SS-11 – Race still undecided if Repub incumbent wins it will be by less than 1000 votes.

NY SS-22 – GOP incumbent in heart of blue NYC.

NY SS-42 – GOP incumbent rumoured to be retiring mid-term.

NY SS-44 – GOP incumbent rumoured to be retiring mid-term.

NY SS-56 – GOP incumbent won with 52.2% of the vote.

NY SS-61 – GOP incumbent won with 53.5% of the vote.

Not to mention that an additional 4 or 5 GOP State Senators will be older than 70 in 2010.

State House – zzzzzzzzzzz

Pennsylvania

Gubernatorial – This one might get complicated. Dem Gov Ed Rendell is term limited and Dem Lt Gov Catherine Baker Knoll has just sadly passed away thus making State Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati the new Lt Gov and he is a Republican. Deep bench on our side including Senator Bob Casey? It goes without saying that the Repubs will have a top tier candidate also. This race makes me nervous as Pennsylvania is less reliably blue than any other state in the North East.

US Senate – 1 of ours (Casey), 1 of theirs (Specter) who is up in 2010. It has been suggested to me that Specter coud be approached to switch which would be fine by me but failing that we have a deep bench and this is a must win if we are to continue the blueing of the Northeast. Specter may yet decide to retire in which case we really are in the box seat for this race.

US House –

PA-05 – This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans.

PA-06 – As probably the single biggest recruiting miss of 2008 this one is infuriating. Gerlach was held to 52% by a 3rd tier candidate and Obama won every county that this district covers. It is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Probably the highest priority house race for the DCCC on offense in the Northeast (open seats notwithstanding).

PA-09 – One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans. This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. Yep just like PA-05.

PA-15 – Like PA-06 Obama carried every county in this one and yep it is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Disappointing 41% for 2008 Dem candidate means we need a top tier challenger here ASAP.

PA-16 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th and 9th unlikely to be a priority.

PA-18 – In theory could be vaguely competitive in 2010 (Bush only got 54% here in 2004) but unlikely given the low hanging fruit in the 6th and 15th.

PA-19 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th, 6th and 16th unlikely to be a priority in 2010.

Watch Dem incumbents in PA-03 and PA-11.

State Senate – The only State chamber still controlled by the GOP in the Northeast. We actually went backwards there this year dropping from 21/28/1 to 20/29/1. And with only half of the State Senate up every two years this one is a hard one to flip in 2010. However the following should probably be targetted IMHO, particularly if they are open races:

PA SS-06 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 53.4% in 2006.

PA SS-10 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.5% in 2006.

PA SS-12 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-16 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 54.2% in 2006.

PA SS-20 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-24 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-26 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 52.2% in 2006.

PA SS-44 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-50 – Incumbent got 53.5% in 2006.

Now I am not suggesting that every State Senate race here will be competitive in 2010 as I understand that Blue counties can have Red parts, but if the Red parts of NYC can be turned then Red parts of Blue counties in PA can be turned also.

State House – In 2008 we managed to increase our margin of control from 102/101 to 104/99; still far too close for comfort. Vulnerable Repubs include:

PA SH-4 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-13 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-15 – Incumbent got 51.5% in 2008.

PA SH-18 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-26 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-28 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-29 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-30 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-31 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-44 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-57 – Incumbent got 51.6% in 2008.

PA SH-61 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-70 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-75 – Incumbent got 53.3% in 2008.

PA SH-102 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-104 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-105 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-106 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-128 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.8% in 2008.

PA SH-129 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-131 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-134 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-138 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-142 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.7% in 2008.

PA SH-146 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 53.3% in 2008.

PA SH-150 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-152 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-155 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-157 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-158 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-160 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-162 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-163 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-164 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-165 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-167 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-168 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-169 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-170 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-172 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-176 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-177 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-178 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-183 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-187 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 52.3% in 2008.

Now I am not suggesting that every State House race here will be competitive in 2010 as I understand that Blue counties can have Red parts, particularly given that State House districts are so small, but if the Red parts of NYC can be turned then Red parts of Blue counties in PA can be turned also. Yep the same thinking that applies to the PA State Senate.

Rhode Island

Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Don Carcieri is term limited! With a bench a mile deep we should be a lock to pick this one up as the GOP bench is almost non existent.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – ALL OURS BABY!

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzz

Vermont

Gubernatorial – If GOP Gov Jim Douglas runs he wins I think. However if he runs for the Senate then we should win here EXCEPT for one nasty wrinkle. In Vermont the Progrssive Party frequently run in statewide races which not only splits the left of centre vote but often allows Republicans to get elected. Surely an accomodation must be able to be found to allow us to have a decent shot at this one in 2010. OTOH GOP Lt Gov Brian Dubie is almost the only statewide candidate that the GOP could present and he could make a race of it.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – ALL OURS BABY!

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzzz

What do you think?

Polls close in Pennsylvania at 8PM Eastern.  

There are only four races worth watching in the Keystone state tonight, and the Pennsylvania Department of State will be posting the returns as they come in:

PA-03 (D): Results

PA-05 (D & R): Results

PA-10 (R): Results

PA-18 (D): Results

The Swing State Project’s rundown of these races can be found here.

While the rest of the blogosphere has its attention fixed on the Pennsylvania presidential primary, there are a few other races worth keeping an eye on tonight:

• MS-01: The main event.  Voters in north Mississippi go to the polls for the third time today in order to fill the seat of appointed Sen. Roger Wicker.  Despite the district’s R+10 lean, Democrat Travis Childers, a Prentiss County Chancery Clerk, is running a hard-charging race against the GOP nominee, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis.

  Davis waged a scorched earth campaign against his primary opponent, former Tupelo Mayor Glenn McCullough, and he has extended the same negativity against Childers in the special election.  Might it backfire?  From a New York Times profile on the race:

  Even Republicans acknowledge that the race appears to be close. The party has turned to advertisements questioning, among other things, care at a nursing home owned by Mr. Childers, a campaign style that has disconcerted some Republicans more used to the genteel politicking of candidates who have long known one another in a largely rural, close-knit district.

  “It could go either way,” said Alan Nunnelee, a Republican state senator in Tupelo. “People are frustrated with the aggressive campaign tactics that have been used, particularly on the Republican side. The Republican camp has been much more aggressive than people in northeast Mississippi are used to.” Mr. Nunnelee said he was nonetheless sticking with his party.

  Not so one of the state’s Republican eminences, Jack Reed Sr., who once ran a credible race for governor and led the Mississippi Economic Council. A businessman in Tupelo, he is supporting Mr. Childers, citing “the personal appeal of the candidate” and “dissatisfaction with the Bush administration.”

  As a sign of just how seriously national Republicans are taking this race, the NRCC has spent $292,000 on media and mail against Childers, while the DCCC has spent $141,000 against Davis.  I get the sense that Democrats are operating in a wait-and-see mode here, and if Childers performs well enough to force this race into a runoff on May 13th, we just might see the DCCC amplify their efforts here.  Recent comments from DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen seem to back this up:

  “We have been very creative in using the funds that we’re allowed to coordinate with the other side … which has greatly boosted the TV buy that Childers did,” DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said Monday. “This is a two-step process. If nobody gets over 50 percent of the vote tomorrow, you go to the next round.”

  With voter fatigue and voter confusion likely high in this district, expect this one to be a very low-turnout affair.  As to who that benefits, that’s anyone’s guess at this point.

  SSP will be liveblogging the results as they come in tonight.  Check back with us later for the score.

• PA-03:  GOP incumbent Phil English once looked like a ripe target for defeat this cycle.  His 2006 performance (54%) against a no-profile Democratic challenger and his district’s R+1.6 PVI seemed alluring for a strong challenger.  Alas, the current crop of Democratic candidates here have yet to impress.

  Erie City Councilor Kyle Foust, once highly touted by the DCCC, has turned out to be a fundraising dud — only raising $61K in the first quarter of 2008 and sitting on $43K cash-on-hand.  His primary opponents, faith-based activist Mike Waltner, labor lawyer Tom Myers, and Lake Erie Arboretum director Kathy Dahlkemper have fared a bit better in the money race, but not overwhelmingly so.  There’s still a chance that this one could turn into a real race, but the primary winner will have to step up his or her efforts big time.

• PA-05:  A longshot’s longshot, this R+9.7 open seat has drawn three Democratic contenders: Iraq War vet and former Senate aide Bill Cahir, Clearfield County Commissioner Mark McCracken, and Lock Haven Mayor Rick Vilello.  Vilello picked up the endorsement of Gov. Ed Rendell, while Cahir (who has the backing of Rep. Patrick Murphy), has been the clear leader in the money race so far, bringing in $121K during the first quarter of 2008.

  The GOP primary has been a huge mess, with nine candidates on the ballot and no clear front-runner.  Matt Shaner (the Club For Growth’s pick), Derek Walker, Jeff Stroehmann and Glenn Thompson seem to be the front-runners, but Walker recently suffered some bad news when he was busted on burglary and criminal trespass charges.  Oops.

• PA-10: Frosh Dem incumbent Chris Carney must be enjoying the GOP fratricide here between businessmen Chris Hackett and Dan Meuser.  Hackett has enjoyed the full-throated support of the nutters at the Club For Growth, but his campaign has also come under fire recently due to allegations that he held pro-choice views last year.  This one has been expensive and bloody.
• PA-18:  Similar to PA-03, this one looked like a compelling target earlier in the cycle, but none of the Democratic candidates have caught on fire yet.  Businessman Steve O’Donnell has self-funded to the tune of $260,000, and he faces off with consultant Beth Hafer and businessman Brien Well for the Democratic nod.  Hafer, the daughter of Barbara Hafer, the state’s former treasurer and auditor general, will have a name recognition advantage here.

The scandals just never end.  According to local media, Republican Rep. Tim Murphy of Pennsylvania is under federal investigation surrounding allegations that some of his legislative staffers were forced into doing campaign work on government time:

According to the congressional ethics manual, campaign matters must be handled by a separate staff.

But some former workers say that wasn’t the case.

“There were several times when staff was asked and basically pressured into doing campaign activities,” said Jayne O’Shaughnessy, a former staffer for Murphy.

Documents obtained by KDKA at least suggest that.

One document is a campaign planning timeline, which appears to require “D.O.” meaning district office employees go door-to-door.

It’s a document that Murphy took from KDKA Investigator Andy Sheehan when he showed it to him in November.

“This is my personal materials. I don’t know how you got this, but this is my personal materials. I’m taking it back,” said Murphy.

Just in case you forgot about that wonderfully absurd moment last month wherein Congressman Murphy “reclaimed” his “personal materials”, check out this hysterical news clip on YouTube.

Murphy’s district, the 18th, has a slight Republican lean (Cook rates it as R+2.2), but Clinton won this area handily in the ’90s.  I would suggest that recruiting a strong challenge to Murphy should be high on the To Do List of local and state Democrats for 2007.

(Thanks to walja for the scoop.)