Tag: Tim Murphy

• MA-Sen: Vicki Kennedy has pretty much ruled out a Senate run, if her comments to the Boston Globe are any indication. She says “the Senate is not my future;” poignantly, she recounts having received Ted’s encouragement to run before his death but responding “You’re Senator Kennedy, and that’s it.” Another Kennedy made some news yesterday, though, in fact generating his own little boomlet of Senatorial speculation: Joe III (son of the ex-Rep. and grandson of RFK) gave a mightily well-received speech in front of state legislators decrying the noxious turn in the nation’s political discourse. The 30-year-old is currently a prosecutor in Barnstable County and has turned down previous attempts to get him to run for office. Finally, some of the more cogent members of the local tea party seem to have made peace with the fact, despite their discomfort with his voting record, that Scott Brown isn’t going to be successfully challenged in the GOP primary in 2012, and are dissuading others from that line of thought. The article mentions recent House race losers Jeff Perry and Jim Ogonowski as possible names, but in the context of even them not likely to be able to gain any traction against Brown in a primary.

• PA-Sen: PPP released Republican primary numbers as part of their Pennsylvania package today, and as with many of their recent primary polls, it’s quite the collection of people who aren’t going to run. They try doing it both with-Santorum and without-Santorum. (Yes, yes, I know that sounds gross.) The Santorum-covered version, thanks to his high name rec (81% of GOPers have an opinion about him, while Schweiker comes in second at 33%), finds him way in the lead, at 45, with Rep. Jim Gerlach at 9, ex-Gov. Mark Schweiker and Rep. Charlie Dent both at 8, Rep. Tim Murphy at 7, state Sen. Jake Corman at 3, and state Sen. Kim Ward and actual announced candidate Marc Scaringi both at 1. The Santorum-free version gives the edge to Schweiker at 18, Gerlach at 14, Murphy at 13, Dent at 10, Corman at 9, Ward at 2, and Scaringi at 1.

• TX-Sen: This story may be better filed under “Dallas mayor” since it points to a somewhat unexpected vacancy that’s going to need to be filled in November. The mayoral candidacy of city council member Ron Natinsky, a key ally of Republican mayor Tom Leppert, makes it pretty clear that Leppert isn’t going to run for a second term as mayor. Leppert has often been cited a potential wild card in the GOP Senate primary against Kay Bailey Hutchison, and this may mean he’s moving toward that race.

• MS-Gov: Hattiesburg mayor Johnny DuPree made it official today, filing his papers for a gubernatorial run. He’ll face off against businessman Bill Luckett in the Democratic primary, and if he wins there, most likely against Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant in the general.

• IL-14: A new profile of ex-Rep. Bill Foster has him sounding pretty uncandidate-ish in the future. He says he’d like to explore business opportunities in green energy and would consider an executive branch position if asked, but there’s nary a suggestion of a rematch.

• PA-Auditor: Allegheny Co. Exec (and 2010 gubernatorial loser) Dan Onorato says he won’t run for a third term as county executive; this is widely assumed to mean that he’ll be pursuing a bid for state Auditor in 2012. (I’m wondering if Jack Wagner, whom you also remember from the gubernatorial race, can run for a 3rd term as Auditor, and, if so, if he’s ruled it out? Anybody know about that?) At any rate, Onorato seems to be looking at lower statewide office as a better stepping-stone for his ambitions; he’s young enough that he’s probably thinking down the road to a 2016 challenge to Pat Toomey or even the 2018 open seat gubernatorial race (which, if history is any guide, will go to a Democrat).

• Special elections: As expected, last night’s special elections in Virginia went to the Republicans with totals over 60% (letting them hold both of the red districts up for grabs). Gregory Habeeb is taking over for Robert Hurt in SD-19, while William Stanley takes over for Morgan Griffith in HD-8. Also, in Mississippi, Nancy Adams Collins won in SD-11 to succeed Alan Nunnelee; I can’t find any confirmation that she, in fact, was the Republican in the race, but I have dim memories (correct me if I’m wrong) from the myriad MS-01 special elections that special elections in Mississippi don’t include party labels on the ballot.

• 2010: You’re probably all familiar with the gender gap, but Michael McDonald shows in pretty dramatic fashion just how significant the “age gap” has become, with a 16-point gap in 2010 between the parties between the 18-29 set and the 65+ set, the largest that’s ever been. The unfortunate flipside, which does a lot to explain the 2010 results, is that young voter falloff in midterm elections (25% in 2006, 51% in 2008) is much greater than among older voters (63% in 2006, 71% in 2008), boosting Republican odds thanks to their increased strength among seniors.

• Demographics: I suppose we don’t need any hints about where people are moving since we just got reapportionment data, but here’s some more in-depth data from the Census Bureau, based on what states people are moving into and out of. Long-distance moves hit a record low in 2009, thanks in large part to the sluggish economy disproportionately hitting young adults. Housing bubble/service-sector cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Orlando had drops in migration, while more knowledge-sector places like Austin, Raleigh, and Portland were gainers among young adults.

• Redistricting: I’m hesitant to heap praise on one particular Dave’s Redistricting App map diary here, because, really, they’re all fantastic and an important part of the site and the community; I learn something new from most of them and they’re all time-consuming works of art, so thanks to everyone who posts them. But silver spring’s Illinois diary is worthy of some extra attention, in the hopes that the powers-that-be (in this state that’s probably the Dems’ single best shot to run up the redistricting score) might see this diary and take its basic ideas into account. It’s a map that takes the almost-unthinkable and makes it plausible: a map that’s 15-3 in favor of Democrats based on 2008 presidential data, and even creates a second Hispanic VRA district for good measure.

• MO-Sen: Ed Martin, who lost narrowly in MO-03, has kept spamming me (and presumably everybody else who writes about politics) with press releases vaguely hinting at voter fraud. It’s seeming like maybe there’s something more there to it than just garden-variety sore-loserism; there’s growing buzz that he’s trying to stay top-of-mind for a possible run for the GOP Senate nomination. Now, you might be saying, that’s a whole lot of hubris for a guy who couldn’t even win a House seat to go up against Sarah Steelman and possibly Jim Talent, but Martin might be able to grab the tea party mantle considering that the local ‘baggers are quite adamant that they aren’t as enamored with her as the national-level ones are. Martin is apparently also considering another run for the House; part of his decision will be what happens with redistricting, as MO-03 may be on the chopping block, between St. Louis-area depopulation and Republican legislative control.

• MT-Sen: Trying to decipher Rep. Denny Rehberg’s intentions, about a possible run against freshman Dem Jon Tester? David Catanese is actually picking through his Christmas card to read the tea leaves. Rehberg tells his supporters (and extended family members) that he’s “not taking anything off the table” in terms of his next step, which is interesting, as it may mean he’s thinking about the open seat gubernatorial race too.

• NE-Sen: Now here’s a blast from the past: ex-Gov. Kay Orr is so old-school that she was actually defeated for Governor by Ben Nelson, way back in 1990. Despite 20 years out of the political scene, her name is being floated as a possibility for the GOP Senate primary for the right to take on Nelson in 2012. Orr herself says she’s undecided, but sounds leaning against it. The Fix also seems to think that state Treasurer (and another long-ago loser to Nelson, although at least this time in a Senate race) Don Stenberg is likely to run, which would force a primary against AG Jon Bruning.

• PA-Sen: There are two different overviews of the Pennsylvania situation today; one is from Alex Roarty at National Journal (and unfortunately is behind a paywall, so I’ll give you the gist). The one new name that surfaces in it is GOP Rep. Tim Murphy (from PA-18 in the Pittsburgh-suburbs); while he isn’t pushing forward on it, he’s shown more behind-the-scenes interest in it than Charlie Dent or Jim Gerlach, both of whom have gotten more touting but seem content with their cushy new committee posts. He also mentions that state Sen. Kim Ward is now leaning against, and confirms that ex-Gov. Mark Schweiker is at the top of the GOP’s wish list but probably a pipe dream. A Philadelphia Magazine article tries to handicap the GOP field, with absolutely nobody on the first tier, Gerlach alone on the second tier, and state Sen. Jake Corman (and Ward) comprising the third tier.

• VA-Sen: Newsmax has an interview with new right-wing hero Ken Cuccinelli, who despite his new HCR-related celebrity is taking the opportunity to make clear that he isn’t running for Senate in 2012 (which would remove George Allen’s main impediment for the GOP nomination). He wouldn’t rule out running for Governor in 2013, though. (I wouldn’t link to Newsmax if you paid me to, so you’ll have to take my word for it.)

• IN-Gov: Rep. Joe Donnelly is another option for Dems for Indiana Governor, although a run by Donnelly would require him giving up his seat. What if the GOP decides to get really aggressive in gerrymandering and build a nightmare seat for him (for instance, creating a dumbbell-shaped district linking Gary and his town of South Bend, forcing him to run against Lake County-based Pete Visclosky or else to move to a mostly rural red district)? South Bend’s Dem party chair is now saying that Donnelly would look at a statewide race in the event that the House map is too unfavorable.

• FL-22: I think I’m going to greatly enjoy Allen West’s two years in the House, if only because he has the skill of digging his own hole deeper every time he opens his mouth. Fresh off the outrageous suggestion that the government should “censor” mainstream media outlets that publish information obtained via WikiLeaks (and apparently having had someone explain First Amendment jurisprudence carefully to him), now he’s claiming that he was misinterpreted, and that he actually said “censure” instead.

• IL-17: Now here’s a fool’s errand: declaring your intention to run for a district that’s about to vaporize. Soon-to-be-ex-Rep. Phil Hare has already expressed his interest in a rematch with Bobby Schilling, but he may have some company. Both former Rock Island mayor Mark Schweibert and state Rep. Mike Boland said they’re interested in running in the Dem primary, too. (Hare, former aide to Lane Evans, was picked over Schweibert by local party heads to be the 2006 nominee after Evans dropped out of the race post-primary.) The 17th seems like the likeliest district on the Illinois chopping block, though, seeing as how most of the state’s population loss has been Downstate and there’s not much point for the Dem-held legislature to preserve a Democratic vote sink if it’s not even going to elect a Democrat.

• KS-??: Despite his various Sherman-esque statements when he first announced he wouldn’t run for a full term as Governor, outgoing Dem Gov. Mark Parkinson is saying in an exit interview that he won’t rule out running for something in the future. (In the meantime, he’s heading to DC to rule the nursing home trade association.) It’s unclear what he’d run for, though… KS-03 is certainly a possibility, as it’s the most Dem-friendly part of the state and Parkinson is an Olathe resident.

• NY-10: This may be taking tea leaf reading a step too far here, but the subtext to Ed Towns’ surprising decision not to seek the ranking member position on the Oversight committee (and back Carolyn Maloney for it) may be that he’s about to wind down his entirely unremarkable decades-long House tenure. Towns will be 78 in 2012.

• KY-AG: It looks like Jack Conway is getting some GOP opposition after all, although not from as serious a threat as outgoing SoS Trey Grayson. Todd P’Pool, the state attorney for planet Vulcan Hopkins County (population 46K) has announced that he will challenge Conway in a battle to the death for the right to mate with T’Pring the 2011 election. Cue the epic fight music!

• OR-St. Sen.: Who woulda thunk that the Oregon state Senate would be one of the last question marks to get resolved this year? The GOP-funded recount in SD-3, where Dem Alan Bates narrowly won, and the retaliatory Dem-funded recount in the race where Martha Schrader narrowly lost (she had been appointed to fill the seat vacated by her husband, now-Rep. Kurt Schrader), are over, with the numbers barely budging at all. The Dems retain a 16-14 majority.

• TX-St. House: Two more party switchers to report, this time in the Texas state House, where Dems had actually entertained the notion of flipping the body a while ago and instead are now facing the wrong end of a supermajority. Aaron Pena and Allan Ritter have both announced that they’re joining the GOP, despite their blue districts (in fact, Pena’s Hidalgo County district went over 70% for Obama), apparently for the same rationale that the Georgia party-switchers are giving: deep in the minority, it’s the only way for them to have any effectiveness in the capitol.

• Mayors: There’s a new Chicago mayoral poll out, where again the main question seems to be whether Rahm Emanuel can win outright without a runoff. That’s not looking likely, given the crowded field, although he still has a substantial lead in the new Tribune/WGN poll, at 32%. Gery Chico and Danny Davis are at 9, James Meeks is at 7, Carol Mosely Braun is at 6, Miguel del Valle is at 3, and Roland Burris is at 2, leaving 30 undecided. Emanuel leads among both blacks (with 19%) and Hispanics (27%).

One other mayoral race (or “situation,” really) that’s heating up is in San Francisco, where there’s a regularly scheduled 2011 election but also a looming vacancy with Gavin Newsom about to become Lt. Governor. The Board of Supervisors will have to choose an interim mayor to serve out those 11 months, and they’ll have to choose between one of their own who may be considering a November run, or an elder-statesman placekeeper. However, the Board is split any number of ways, and if there’s nobody who gets 6 of its 11 votes, the Board’s President, David Chiu, becomes acting mayor. The only person who seems in position to pick up at least six votes would be state Assemblyman Tom Ammiano.

• Census: All manner of data analysis is pouring forth, in the wake of yesterday’s massive data dump of the Census Bureau’s five-year ACS estimates (which is where you’re going to find a lot of the information that used to be on the “long form”). Perhaps most amazingly of all is a new mapping tool from the New York Times, which lets you zoom in or out from the state level to the block level anywhere in the country to look at race and foreign-born status. (Set aside a few hours to explore this one.) Also worth reading are new articles on changes in racial segregation (in major decline in certain metro areas, especially Atlanta and Miami, which can have major VRA implications in terms of it being harder to cobble together districts that have a majority of any particular group) and in rural populations (declining rapidly, as you might imagine).

Not that it’s a surprise, but we can now officially cross off Democratic Rep. Allyson Schwartz from the open seat watch:

Aides to Rep. Allyson Schwartz say the third-term Pennsylvania Democrat will not seek her party’s nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2010.

Schwartz was among those widely talked about as a possible candidate, and had considered a Senate run. But after Arlen Specter’s party switch, Schwartz plans to support him and will focus on having a larger role in health-care policy in the House of Representatives.

Meanwhile, the Pennsylvania GOP, apparently unhappy-to-fearful with the idea of a Toomey general election candidacy and the havoc that it might wreak downballot, is searching fiercely for an alternative. The Hill mentions ex-Gov. Tom Ridge and current Reps. Jim Gerlach, Charlie Dent and Tim Murphy as possibilities. I’m not sure if any of those guys (particularly Ridge, who isn’t exactly a popular figure within the GOP’s base himself) would be interested in that kind of fight, but who the hell knows anymore.

(From the diaries with minor edits – promoted by DavidNYC)

As I’d promised in my diary on New Jersey, Pennsylvania would be the next state I’d tackle. This would  have been done a lot sooner, but those things called work and exams kind of got in the way….

My goal, flat out, was to carve more Democratic districts. I’m all for compactness when it comes to suitcases and mp3’s, but not when I’m gerrymandering states. Again, I kept Democratic Congresscritters in their homes.

Unlike New Jersey though, Pennsylvania is probably maxed-out when it comes to Democrats (save Gerlach and Dent, whose districts are certainly Democratic.) Pennsylvania is also losing one seat (most likely) in 2010, so I drew 18 seats on 2008 population estimates. I didn’t “merge” two districts per se, but more like took the 16th, 17th, and 19th and produced two districts from them.

I had the following goals in mind:

• Dislodge Gerlach (6th) and Dent (15th) by increasing Democratic performance in their districts.

• Give Dahlkemper (3rd), Altmire (4th), Murtha (12th), and Holden (17th) more favorable territory. They represent McCain districts now, I wanted to change those to Obama districts.

• Maintain strength for Sestak (7th), Patrick Murphy (8th), Kanjorski (11th), and Schwartz (13th). They have decently strongly Democratic districts, which I wanted to maintain at their current levels.

• Keep Brady (1st), Fattah (2nd), and Doyle (14th) in strongly Democratic districts, but perhaps not as absurdly strong as before. Obama scored 88%, 90%, and 70% respectively, I felt this could afford to be lowered somewhat. A corollary to this goal is keeping Fattah’s district majority Black. I didn’t bother with Brady’s currently plurality Black district, though it may still be.

Here’s the new map (click for full-size version):

Much more below the flip.

Again, to start, I used this map of Obama’s performance across the state, by municipality. As before, lightest shade is a margin of less than 5%, then 5 to 15, 15 to 25, 25 to 35, and the new uber-dark, which is a margin of 35+.

Going district by district, here’s what we’ve got. As a sidenote, I didn’t bother renumbering districts to make sense (which they don’t right now). I think it’s easier to keep core areas the same when numbering, since I think most of us automatically relate, for example, “PA-14” to Pittsburgh.

Summary statistics are: County, Population, Obama Votes, McCain Votes, Total Votes, Obama%, McCain%.

I’m going to go Northwest to Southeast, as opposed to in order by non-sensical district number. I think that makes the most sense.

Sad to say, this district probably isn’t much more gerrymandered than its current counterpart. It contains the entirety of Erie and Crawford counties in the northwest, and starts a slow march towards State College. I’d hate to leave those Democratic votes behind, and plus they’re a good way to shore up Dahlkemper’s district, which Obama lost by 17 votes. It takes in the Democratic parts of Centre and Clinton counties on the east end, with some arms into Clarion and Venango. I’d like to think I succeeded, since Obama scored 45% in the 3rd’s part of Venango and 50% in Clarion, compared to 35% and 33% in the parts not in the 3rd. All in all, a 54% Obama district – a 6% increase from its current form.

4		689,397	182,724	168,763	356,152	51.31%	47.39%
	Allegheny	389,960	110,152	102,177	214,148	51.44%	47.71%
	Beaver	149,042	36,109	35,781	73,326	49.24%	48.80%
	Lawrence	75,681	17,041	16,670	34,362	49.59%	48.51%
	Mercer	74,714	19,422	14,135	34,316	56.60%	41.19%

Altmire is pretty much in the same boat as Dahlkemper, except with a district that Obama lost 44-55. There’s no need to complicate this by including any parts of Butler County, so this district sticks along the Ohio, Beaver, and Shenango Rivers up from Pittsburgh (but not including) to Sharon, through Allegheny, Beaver, Lawrence, and Mercer counties. It’s a point of pride for me that Obama won each county component. Specifically in Allegheny County, Altmire swaps out a bunch of Republican northern suburbs for friendlier stuff east of the city, notably Monroeville and Penn Hills. Obama scored 44% in the Allegheny portion of the old 4th, compard to 51% here. If Altmire didn’t live in Republican-leaning McCandless, there could have perhaps been more improvement. Anyways, this works out to a 51% Obama district – an improvement of 7%.

18		689,231	136,738	218,177	359,372	38.05%	60.71%
	Allegheny	127,747	30,252	41,789	72,634	41.65%	57.53%
	Beaver	24,444	4,390	7,114	11,706	37.50%	60.77%
	Butler	181,082	32,260	57,074	90,761	35.54%	62.88%
	Greene	13,925	2,072	2,748	4,892	42.35%	56.17%
	Lawrence	16,216	2,670	5,181	7,987	33.43%	64.87%
	Mercer	25,909	4,147	8,239	12,668	32.74%	65.04%
	Washington	82,349	18,019	27,503	46,141	39.05%	59.61%
	Westmoreland	217,559	42,928	68,529	112,583	38.13%	60.87%

This district is what happens when you try to strip all the Republican territory out of the 3rd, 4th, and 12th districts and pack it together. Butler County has no place in a Democratic district, nor does the large chunk of Westmoreland County which is quickly trending away from us. Throw in some the northern Pittsburgh suburbs stripped out of Altmire’s district and the core of Tim Murphy’s old district, and you get this 38% – an 8% drop in Democratic performance.

14		688,540	227,685	124,055	355,158	64.11%	34.93%
	Allegheny	688,540	227,685	124,055	355,158	64.11%	34.93%

The 14th doesn’t change much – it keeps the entirety of the city of Pittsburgh and suburbs to the east like Swissvale and Doyle’s home in Forest Hills. Instead of reaching southwest, the new 14th looks south to the southern Pittsburgh suburbs like Upper St. Clair and Bethel Park. Arguably, this district is actually more compact than the current 14th. No worries for Mike F. Doyle though, since Obama still won 55% in the non-Pittsburgh part of the district.  Combine that with the 75% Obama scored in the city, and you get a 64% Democratic district, a drop of 6%.

12		689,579	146,095	143,358	294,030	49.69%	48.76%
	Allegheny	19,931	4,385	3,865	8,347	52.53%	46.30%
	Armstrong	26,485	5,114	6,186	11,454	44.65%	54.01%
	Cambria	131,716	29,955	28,623	59,705	50.17%	47.94%
	Fayette	135,292	24,805	23,726	49,108	50.51%	48.31%
	Greene	25,794	5,757	5,141	11,084	51.94%	46.38%
	Indiana	55,368	12,477	12,254	25,068	49.77%	48.88%
	Somerset	26,108	5,709	6,599	12,656	45.11%	52.14%
	Washington	122,958	28,100	23,199	52,318	53.71%	44.34%
	Westmoreland	145,927	29,793	33,765	64,290	46.34%	52.52%

It’s no secret Obama didn’t do all that hot in Southwest PA, and it’s painfully obvious here. Kerry won the old 12th, which Obama lost by about 1,000 votes. Trying to create an Obama district required some creative districting and ends up being more like connect-the-dots between traditionally Democratic Fayette and Greene counties, Johnstown (Murtha’s residence), Washington, the college town of Indiana, and Lower Burrell in Westmoreland. The old 12th pretty much packed all the Democratic votes in the area, so the increased population requirement really made me stretch. I think again, I have a strong case for this being more compact than the old 12th. Either way, it’s a slight improvement to a district Obama won by 3,000 votes, an improvement of 0.5%.

9		689,087	102,284	191,267	298,149	34.31%	64.15%
	Adams	5,926	1,018	1,671	2,739	37.17%	61.01%
	Armstrong	42,940	6,024	12,356	18,627	32.34%	66.33%
	Bedford	49,650	6,059	16,124	22,508	26.92%	71.64%
	Blair	125,593	19,813	32,708	53,298	37.17%	61.37%
	Cambria	14,271	2,496	3,372	5,965	41.84%	56.53%
	Clarion	28,186	4,045	8,111	12,435	32.53%	65.23%
	Clearfield	33,268	5,672	8,599	14,588	38.88%	58.95%
	Cumberland	19,402	3,428	4,426	7,976	42.98%	55.49%
	Fayette	9,667	1,090	2,054	3,172	34.36%	64.75%
	Franklin	139,459	21,169	41,906	63,641	33.26%	65.85%
	Fulton	14,261	1,576	4,642	6,306	24.99%	73.61%
	Huntingdon	45,552	6,621	11,745	18,730	35.35%	62.71%
	Indiana	32,520	4,588	7,473	12,236	37.50%	61.07%
	Jefferson	45,151	6,447	12,057	18,904	34.10%	63.78%
	Somerset	52,087	7,169	15,087	22,712	31.56%	66.43%
	Venango	31,154	5,069	8,936	14,312	35.42%	62.44%

Moving into the ‘T’ now, this is the first of two extremely Republican districts. Arguably, there are two population centers, one in Altoona in Blair County and the other in Chambersburg in Franklin. From there, it moves northwest, picking up the parts of Somerset, Cambria, Indiana, and Armstrong not packed into Murtha’s 12th, and then the parts of Venango and Clarion not in Dahlkemper’s 3rd. At 34% Obama, this is the most Republican district in Pennsylvania and a 1% drop from the current 9th.

5		689,043	114,992	195,836	315,767	36.42%	62.02%
	Berks	9,899	993	2,312	3,366	29.50%	68.69%
	Centre	46,567	8,837	11,902	21,089	41.90%	56.44%
	Clearfield	9,696	1,511	2,228	3,839	39.36%	58.04%
	Clinton	10,002	1,540	2,434	4,024	38.27%	60.49%
	Cumberland	199,164	43,028	57,531	102,130	42.13%	56.33%
	Dauphin	43,419	8,423	15,149	23,834	35.34%	63.56%
	Juniata	23,163	3,068	6,484	9,819	31.25%	66.04%
	Lebanon	53,875	9,202	16,904	26,528	34.69%	63.72%
	Lycoming	49,426	7,076	15,691	23,131	30.59%	67.84%
	McKean	23,852	2,886	5,596	8,645	33.38%	64.73%
	Mifflin	46,609	5,375	10,929	16,502	32.57%	66.23%
	Montour	3,868	590	1,167	1,771	33.31%	65.89%
	Northumberland	22,909	3,245	6,360	9,734	33.34%	65.34%
	Perry	44,850	6,396	13,058	19,745	32.39%	66.13%
	Potter	18,080	2,300	5,109	7,583	30.33%	67.37%
	Schuylkill	10,533	1,776	3,294	5,139	34.56%	64.10%
	Snyder	23,134	2,499	6,442	9,069	27.56%	71.03%
	Tioga	24,641	3,610	7,527	11,305	31.93%	66.58%
	Union	25,356	2,637	5,719	8,514	30.97%	67.17%

The is the other Republican district taking in a large chunk of the T. More packing of Republicans here, as this district on the east side swaps many tentacles with Chris Carney’s new 10th district. Any pockets of even-remotely Democratic friendliness are pulled out, including Williamsport and Sunbury. What’s left is expansive Republican space, centered in Cumberland County moving north towards the Northern Tier. At 36% Obama, this is a drop of 8%.

10		688,967	134,946	156,456	296,409	45.53%	52.78%
	Berks	8,704	1,724	2,167	3,995	43.15%	54.24%
	Bradford	61,626	10,306	15,057	25,884	39.82%	58.17%
	Columbia	64,663	13,019	14,255	27,838	46.77%	51.21%
	Dauphin	5,728	823	1,231	2,073	39.70%	59.38%
	Lackawanna	44,778	13,784	10,806	24,913	55.33%	43.37%
	Luzerne	11,637	2,044	3,020	5,153	39.67%	58.61%
	Lycoming	67,880	11,305	14,589	26,316	42.96%	55.44%
	Montour	14,368	2,757	3,388	6,216	44.35%	54.50%
	Northumberland	68,307	11,083	12,655	24,201	45.80%	52.29%
	Pike	57,102	11,493	12,519	24,285	47.33%	51.55%
	Schuylkill	108,170	20,758	23,247	44,766	46.37%	51.93%
	Snyder	14,849	2,883	3,458	6,410	44.98%	53.95%
	Sullivan	6,556	1,233	1,841	3,131	39.38%	58.80%
	Susquehanna	41,388	8,381	10,633	19,383	43.24%	54.86%
	Tioga	16,194	2,780	3,799	6,679	41.62%	56.88%
	Union	17,997	4,696	4,140	8,961	52.40%	46.20%
	Wayne	51,139	9,892	12,702	22,932	43.14%	55.39%
	Wyoming	27,881	5,985	6,949	13,273	45.09%	52.35%

You can’t win all of them, and this is the one district that wasn’t to my liking. I really wanted to protect Carney a bit more, but the territory simply wasn’t there to do that and protect the Democratic strength of Kanjorski’s 11th. I chose to hedge a bit and to keep the 11th strongly Democratic. It might be a waste to protect Kanjorski like that, but he’s got to retire eventually and we can definitely get a good Democrat out of Scranton. Thus, this district starts in Wayne and Pike counties, before moving through Susquehanna (Carney lives in Dimock) and northern Lackawanna counties. Lycoming County outside of Williamsport is stripped out as much as possible, and it gains Columbia County and a large chunk of Schuylkill County freed up from Holden’s 17th. Surprisingly, I still managed a gain of 0.5% to 45.5% Obama. Carney should be fine here regardless.

11		689,582	177,101	128,039	309,934	57.14%	41.31%
	Carbon	62,326	13,464	12,957	27,050	49.77%	47.90%
	Lackawanna	164,442	53,736	28,682	83,626	64.26%	34.30%
	Luzerne	300,203	70,448	58,107	130,815	53.85%	44.42%
	Monroe	162,611	39,453	28,293	68,443	57.64%	41.34%

Kanjorski was probably saved in 2008 by Obama’s coattails, and shoring up the 11th was one of my major goals. Surprisingly, this actually becomes more compact, too, it seems. What we get is a district centered on the Lackawanna Valley. 43% of this district is Wilkes-Barre and Luzerne County, and another 23% each for Scranton/Lackawanna County and Monroe County. All in all, a 57% Obama district, up 0.3% from the old 11th. Also a rare victory for compactness.

17		689,314	176,601	148,808	329,673	53.57%	45.14%
	Berks	52,440	11,062	13,461	24,959	44.32%	53.93%
	Cumberland	6,969	1,850	1,782	3,719	49.74%	47.92%
	Dauphin	199,854	59,866	40,264	101,138	59.19%	39.81%
	Lancaster	229,139	60,406	52,477	114,386	52.81%	45.88%
	Lebanon	72,551	14,108	17,410	32,035	44.04%	54.35%
	Schuylkill	28,135	5,938	7,418	13,522	43.91%	54.86%
	York	100,226	23,371	15,996	39,914	58.55%	40.08%

Connect the dots version 2.0 here, as we string together the cities of York, Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Tim Holden’s home in St. Clair in Schuylkill County, all of which are strongly Democratic. They’re counterbalanced by the Republican outlying portions of York, Dauphin, and Lancaster counties, though. However, 59% Obama performances in the 17th’s parts of Dauphin and York and a 53% showing in Lancaster anchor this 54% Obama district on balance, an improvement of 6% from the current 17th.

16		688,715	118,510	197,429	320,910	36.93%	61.52%
	Adams	93,986	16,615	24,678	41,924	39.63%	58.86%
	Berks	9,821	2,245	3,260	5,596	40.12%	58.26%
	Chester	1,059	243	552	806	30.15%	68.49%
	Dauphin	5,275	759	1,576	2,362	32.13%	66.72%
	Lancaster	264,774	39,180	74,091	114,863	34.11%	64.50%
	York	313,800	59,468	93,272	155,359	38.28%	60.04%

This is what remains of the old 16th and 19th districts once the Democratic cities are stripped out. There’s really not much to say about this district based in York and Lancaster, except that it’s the last “Republican” district we have to talk about, it only gets better from here. At 37% Obama, it’s a drop of 6% from the old 19th and 10% from the old 16th – which was intentional, of course.

15		688,754	177,367	136,903	318,961	55.61%	42.92%
	Berks	65,559	15,023	14,970	30,535	49.20%	49.03%
	Lehigh	333,423	87,089	63,382	152,473	57.12%	41.57%
	Northampton	289,772	75,255	58,551	135,953	55.35%	43.07%

Starting with the Lehigh Valley, the 15th continues to have the entirety of Northampton County. Lehigh County did have a bite taken out of it by the old pterodactyl of the 6th, but the Lehigh in its entirety stays here too. Instead of reaching into MontCo with two rods hugging the MontCo-Berks and MontCo-BucksCo line, it goes for Bucks County instead. At 56% Obama, this is a slight improvement. Charlie Dent should be gone as soon as we get a good challenger anyway.

Southeast PA is definitely (in my mind, anyway), the coup de grace of this map. Here’s an inset of that:

Each district is colored by county component: all greens are the 6th or 8th, blues are the 7th or 13th, red is the 1st, and yellow is the 2nd.

First, the boring stuff (i.e. the 1st and 2nd):

1		689,174	266,010	78,010	347,098	76.64%	22.47%
	Delaware	208,267	65,596	42,719	109,675	59.81%	38.95%
	Philadelphia	480,907	200,414	35,291	237,423	84.41%	14.86%

Bob Brady’s district remains anchored in South Philly with an arm into Delaware County. The composition of this arm, however, is significantly different. Brady swaps with Sestak some cities (notably strongly-Democratic Chester city) for some Republican leaning parts of the Main Line. Brady’s old 1st had a 89% Democratic section of DelCo, the new 1st has a 60% Democratic section. This lowers Democratic performance by about 11%, down to 77%. Brady need not be concerned.

2		688,659	303,286	34,983	339,990	89.20%	10.29%
	Philadelphia	688,659	303,286	34,983	339,990	89.20%	10.29%

No significant changes for Chaka Fattah. His district still contains most of West Philly. Cheltenham in MontCo is removed, substituted for an arm into Northeast Philly. The changes aren’t all that significant, the district is only down 0.85% in Obama performance.

8		686,233	199,224	162,328	365,625	54.49%	44.40%
	Bucks	619,093	179,031	150,248	332,924	53.78%	45.13%
	Montgomery	27,576	7,460	5,533	13,168	56.65%	42.02%
	Philadelphia	39,564	12,733	6,547	19,533	65.19%	33.52%

Consistent with tradition, Bucks County remains in the 8th in its entirety. The old 8th had an odd-looking protrusion into MontCo (where Obama got 63%), and took a section of Northeast Philly where Obama barely edged McCain with 49%. We flip the roles here, instead taking Wards 41 and 65 of the city, where Obama got 65%. We also take a few municipalities (funnily, Hatfield Twp, Hatfield Boro, and Hatboro Boro) in MontCo, where Obama got 57%. Overall, Obama got 54.5%, up 0.5%.

13		688,902	224,312	140,834	368,302	60.90%	38.24%
	Montgomery	443,652	144,765	100,434	247,223	58.56%	40.62%
	Philadelphia	245,250	79,547	40,400	121,079	65.70%	33.37%

The 13th remains a MontCo-Philly hybrid. It takes in more of MontCo now, consistent with the increased population constraint, reaching all the way to the Berks County Line. Instead of reaching through the city, the new 13th no longer touches the Delaware River, stopping short by grabbing Northeast Philly taken from the 8th. Centered in Abingdon (it’s the largest municipality), the new 13th’s section of MontCo is 59% Obama, up from 57%, and the new 13th’s section of Philly is 66% Obama, up from 60%. Together, this makes for a 61% Obama district, up from 58%.

7		689,283	219,653	154,096	377,651	58.16%	40.80%
	Chester	211,997	66,693	57,071	125,146	53.29%	45.60%
	Delaware	345,246	113,274	72,554	187,835	60.31%	38.63%
	Montgomery	132,040	39,686	24,471	64,670	61.37%	37.84%

The new 7th stays composed of ChesCo, DelCo, and MontCo. Since more of DelCo is given to Brady’s 1st, this district becomes more Chester County heavy, reaching further north and west into the county. It, incidentally, takes Jim Gerlach’s home in West Pikeland Township here. Even so, the new ChesCo portion is 53% Obama, up from 50%. The DelCo section gets a healthy boost from the city of Chester while keeping in Radnor, Haverford, and Upper Darby along the Main Line. The New DelCo section is 60% Obama, up from 56%. The MontCo part remains mostly the same, taking in Norristown, Upper Merion, and Lower and Upper Providence Townships. Combined, this is a 58% Obama district, up 2.5%.

6		688,652	198,024	136,472	338,576	58.49%	40.31%
	Berks	251,731	66,000	44,343	112,060	58.90%	39.57%
	Chester	265,765	70,897	56,798	129,300	54.83%	43.93%
	Montgomery	171,156	61,127	35,331	97,216	62.88%	36.34%

My favorite district. The pterodactyl is back (hence the title, get it?), and it’s leaner and meaner (to Republicans, anyway). The body remains majority Chester, but it swaps out a large swath of eastern ChesCo for townships along the Lancaster County line freed up from the 16th. It still, however, keeps Democratic centers in Downington and Coatesville, and adds West Chester proper, which was gerrymandered into the 16th before. Obama performed roughly the same in the old and new Chester part.

As before, the left wing reaches into Berks County, but before, Reading was cracked three ways between the 6th, 16th, and 17th. Now, Reading and its 81% Obama goodness are kept whole in this district, raising Obama’s performance in Berks from 54% to 59%. The right arm is still my favorite. Originally, Republicans conceived of this as a way to crack MontCo into two Republican (PA-06, PA-07) and one swing district (PA-13). This is best termed, I think, an EPIC FAIL. The old right arm was 64% Obama, and this new version is 63%. I maintained the anchor in Lower Merion Township and Narberth, since their combined 71% Obama goodness is just too good to give up. Combined, this raises Obama’s performance here by another 1% to 58.5%.

So there you have it, a new, 18-seat map for Pennsylvania. Comments? Questions? Which state should I do next? Please share what you think the districts look like, also!

The scandals just never end.  According to local media, Republican Rep. Tim Murphy of Pennsylvania is under federal investigation surrounding allegations that some of his legislative staffers were forced into doing campaign work on government time:

According to the congressional ethics manual, campaign matters must be handled by a separate staff.

But some former workers say that wasn’t the case.

“There were several times when staff was asked and basically pressured into doing campaign activities,” said Jayne O’Shaughnessy, a former staffer for Murphy.

Documents obtained by KDKA at least suggest that.

One document is a campaign planning timeline, which appears to require “D.O.” meaning district office employees go door-to-door.

It’s a document that Murphy took from KDKA Investigator Andy Sheehan when he showed it to him in November.

“This is my personal materials. I don’t know how you got this, but this is my personal materials. I’m taking it back,” said Murphy.

Just in case you forgot about that wonderfully absurd moment last month wherein Congressman Murphy “reclaimed” his “personal materials”, check out this hysterical news clip on YouTube.

Murphy’s district, the 18th, has a slight Republican lean (Cook rates it as R+2.2), but Clinton won this area handily in the ’90s.  I would suggest that recruiting a strong challenge to Murphy should be high on the To Do List of local and state Democrats for 2007.

(Thanks to walja for the scoop.)