SSP Daily Digest: 1/12

MA-Sen: Vicki Kennedy has pretty much ruled out a Senate run, if her comments to the Boston Globe are any indication. She says “the Senate is not my future;” poignantly, she recounts having received Ted’s encouragement to run before his death but responding “You’re Senator Kennedy, and that’s it.” Another Kennedy made some news yesterday, though, in fact generating his own little boomlet of Senatorial speculation: Joe III (son of the ex-Rep. and grandson of RFK) gave a mightily well-received speech in front of state legislators decrying the noxious turn in the nation’s political discourse. The 30-year-old is currently a prosecutor in Barnstable County and has turned down previous attempts to get him to run for office. Finally, some of the more cogent members of the local tea party seem to have made peace with the fact, despite their discomfort with his voting record, that Scott Brown isn’t going to be successfully challenged in the GOP primary in 2012, and are dissuading others from that line of thought. The article mentions recent House race losers Jeff Perry and Jim Ogonowski as possible names, but in the context of even them not likely to be able to gain any traction against Brown in a primary.

PA-Sen: PPP released Republican primary numbers as part of their Pennsylvania package today, and as with many of their recent primary polls, it’s quite the collection of people who aren’t going to run. They try doing it both with-Santorum and without-Santorum. (Yes, yes, I know that sounds gross.) The Santorum-covered version, thanks to his high name rec (81% of GOPers have an opinion about him, while Schweiker comes in second at 33%), finds him way in the lead, at 45, with Rep. Jim Gerlach at 9, ex-Gov. Mark Schweiker and Rep. Charlie Dent both at 8, Rep. Tim Murphy at 7, state Sen. Jake Corman at 3, and state Sen. Kim Ward and actual announced candidate Marc Scaringi both at 1. The Santorum-free version gives the edge to Schweiker at 18, Gerlach at 14, Murphy at 13, Dent at 10, Corman at 9, Ward at 2, and Scaringi at 1.

TX-Sen: This story may be better filed under “Dallas mayor” since it points to a somewhat unexpected vacancy that’s going to need to be filled in November. The mayoral candidacy of city council member Ron Natinsky, a key ally of Republican mayor Tom Leppert, makes it pretty clear that Leppert isn’t going to run for a second term as mayor. Leppert has often been cited a potential wild card in the GOP Senate primary against Kay Bailey Hutchison, and this may mean he’s moving toward that race.

MS-Gov: Hattiesburg mayor Johnny DuPree made it official today, filing his papers for a gubernatorial run. He’ll face off against businessman Bill Luckett in the Democratic primary, and if he wins there, most likely against Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant in the general.

IL-14: A new profile of ex-Rep. Bill Foster has him sounding pretty uncandidate-ish in the future. He says he’d like to explore business opportunities in green energy and would consider an executive branch position if asked, but there’s nary a suggestion of a rematch.

PA-Auditor: Allegheny Co. Exec (and 2010 gubernatorial loser) Dan Onorato says he won’t run for a third term as county executive; this is widely assumed to mean that he’ll be pursuing a bid for state Auditor in 2012. (I’m wondering if Jack Wagner, whom you also remember from the gubernatorial race, can run for a 3rd term as Auditor, and, if so, if he’s ruled it out? Anybody know about that?) At any rate, Onorato seems to be looking at lower statewide office as a better stepping-stone for his ambitions; he’s young enough that he’s probably thinking down the road to a 2016 challenge to Pat Toomey or even the 2018 open seat gubernatorial race (which, if history is any guide, will go to a Democrat).

Special elections: As expected, last night’s special elections in Virginia went to the Republicans with totals over 60% (letting them hold both of the red districts up for grabs). Gregory Habeeb is taking over for Robert Hurt in SD-19, while William Stanley takes over for Morgan Griffith in HD-8. Also, in Mississippi, Nancy Adams Collins won in SD-11 to succeed Alan Nunnelee; I can’t find any confirmation that she, in fact, was the Republican in the race, but I have dim memories (correct me if I’m wrong) from the myriad MS-01 special elections that special elections in Mississippi don’t include party labels on the ballot.

2010: You’re probably all familiar with the gender gap, but Michael McDonald shows in pretty dramatic fashion just how significant the “age gap” has become, with a 16-point gap in 2010 between the parties between the 18-29 set and the 65+ set, the largest that’s ever been. The unfortunate flipside, which does a lot to explain the 2010 results, is that young voter falloff in midterm elections (25% in 2006, 51% in 2008) is much greater than among older voters (63% in 2006, 71% in 2008), boosting Republican odds thanks to their increased strength among seniors.

Demographics: I suppose we don’t need any hints about where people are moving since we just got reapportionment data, but here’s some more in-depth data from the Census Bureau, based on what states people are moving into and out of. Long-distance moves hit a record low in 2009, thanks in large part to the sluggish economy disproportionately hitting young adults. Housing bubble/service-sector cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Orlando had drops in migration, while more knowledge-sector places like Austin, Raleigh, and Portland were gainers among young adults.

Redistricting: I’m hesitant to heap praise on one particular Dave’s Redistricting App map diary here, because, really, they’re all fantastic and an important part of the site and the community; I learn something new from most of them and they’re all time-consuming works of art, so thanks to everyone who posts them. But silver spring’s Illinois diary is worthy of some extra attention, in the hopes that the powers-that-be (in this state that’s probably the Dems’ single best shot to run up the redistricting score) might see this diary and take its basic ideas into account. It’s a map that takes the almost-unthinkable and makes it plausible: a map that’s 15-3 in favor of Democrats based on 2008 presidential data, and even creates a second Hispanic VRA district for good measure.

SSP Daily Digest: 12/15

MO-Sen: Ed Martin, who lost narrowly in MO-03, has kept spamming me (and presumably everybody else who writes about politics) with press releases vaguely hinting at voter fraud. It’s seeming like maybe there’s something more there to it than just garden-variety sore-loserism; there’s growing buzz that he’s trying to stay top-of-mind for a possible run for the GOP Senate nomination. Now, you might be saying, that’s a whole lot of hubris for a guy who couldn’t even win a House seat to go up against Sarah Steelman and possibly Jim Talent, but Martin might be able to grab the tea party mantle considering that the local ‘baggers are quite adamant that they aren’t as enamored with her as the national-level ones are. Martin is apparently also considering another run for the House; part of his decision will be what happens with redistricting, as MO-03 may be on the chopping block, between St. Louis-area depopulation and Republican legislative control.

MT-Sen: Trying to decipher Rep. Denny Rehberg’s intentions, about a possible run against freshman Dem Jon Tester? David Catanese is actually picking through his Christmas card to read the tea leaves. Rehberg tells his supporters (and extended family members) that he’s “not taking anything off the table” in terms of his next step, which is interesting, as it may mean he’s thinking about the open seat gubernatorial race too.

NE-Sen: Now here’s a blast from the past: ex-Gov. Kay Orr is so old-school that she was actually defeated for Governor by Ben Nelson, way back in 1990. Despite 20 years out of the political scene, her name is being floated as a possibility for the GOP Senate primary for the right to take on Nelson in 2012. Orr herself says she’s undecided, but sounds leaning against it. The Fix also seems to think that state Treasurer (and another long-ago loser to Nelson, although at least this time in a Senate race) Don Stenberg is likely to run, which would force a primary against AG Jon Bruning.

PA-Sen: There are two different overviews of the Pennsylvania situation today; one is from Alex Roarty at National Journal (and unfortunately is behind a paywall, so I’ll give you the gist). The one new name that surfaces in it is GOP Rep. Tim Murphy (from PA-18 in the Pittsburgh-suburbs); while he isn’t pushing forward on it, he’s shown more behind-the-scenes interest in it than Charlie Dent or Jim Gerlach, both of whom have gotten more touting but seem content with their cushy new committee posts. He also mentions that state Sen. Kim Ward is now leaning against, and confirms that ex-Gov. Mark Schweiker is at the top of the GOP’s wish list but probably a pipe dream. A Philadelphia Magazine article tries to handicap the GOP field, with absolutely nobody on the first tier, Gerlach alone on the second tier, and state Sen. Jake Corman (and Ward) comprising the third tier.

VA-Sen: Newsmax has an interview with new right-wing hero Ken Cuccinelli, who despite his new HCR-related celebrity is taking the opportunity to make clear that he isn’t running for Senate in 2012 (which would remove George Allen’s main impediment for the GOP nomination). He wouldn’t rule out running for Governor in 2013, though. (I wouldn’t link to Newsmax if you paid me to, so you’ll have to take my word for it.)

IN-Gov: Rep. Joe Donnelly is another option for Dems for Indiana Governor, although a run by Donnelly would require him giving up his seat. What if the GOP decides to get really aggressive in gerrymandering and build a nightmare seat for him (for instance, creating a dumbbell-shaped district linking Gary and his town of South Bend, forcing him to run against Lake County-based Pete Visclosky or else to move to a mostly rural red district)? South Bend’s Dem party chair is now saying that Donnelly would look at a statewide race in the event that the House map is too unfavorable.

FL-22: I think I’m going to greatly enjoy Allen West’s two years in the House, if only because he has the skill of digging his own hole deeper every time he opens his mouth. Fresh off the outrageous suggestion that the government should “censor” mainstream media outlets that publish information obtained via WikiLeaks (and apparently having had someone explain First Amendment jurisprudence carefully to him), now he’s claiming that he was misinterpreted, and that he actually said “censure” instead.

IL-17: Now here’s a fool’s errand: declaring your intention to run for a district that’s about to vaporize. Soon-to-be-ex-Rep. Phil Hare has already expressed his interest in a rematch with Bobby Schilling, but he may have some company. Both former Rock Island mayor Mark Schweibert and state Rep. Mike Boland said they’re interested in running in the Dem primary, too. (Hare, former aide to Lane Evans, was picked over Schweibert by local party heads to be the 2006 nominee after Evans dropped out of the race post-primary.) The 17th seems like the likeliest district on the Illinois chopping block, though, seeing as how most of the state’s population loss has been Downstate and there’s not much point for the Dem-held legislature to preserve a Democratic vote sink if it’s not even going to elect a Democrat.

KS-??: Despite his various Sherman-esque statements when he first announced he wouldn’t run for a full term as Governor, outgoing Dem Gov. Mark Parkinson is saying in an exit interview that he won’t rule out running for something in the future. (In the meantime, he’s heading to DC to rule the nursing home trade association.) It’s unclear what he’d run for, though… KS-03 is certainly a possibility, as it’s the most Dem-friendly part of the state and Parkinson is an Olathe resident.

NY-10: This may be taking tea leaf reading a step too far here, but the subtext to Ed Towns’ surprising decision not to seek the ranking member position on the Oversight committee (and back Carolyn Maloney for it) may be that he’s about to wind down his entirely unremarkable decades-long House tenure. Towns will be 78 in 2012.

KY-AG: It looks like Jack Conway is getting some GOP opposition after all, although not from as serious a threat as outgoing SoS Trey Grayson. Todd P’Pool, the state attorney for planet Vulcan Hopkins County (population 46K) has announced that he will challenge Conway in a battle to the death for the right to mate with T’Pring the 2011 election. Cue the epic fight music!

OR-St. Sen.: Who woulda thunk that the Oregon state Senate would be one of the last question marks to get resolved this year? The GOP-funded recount in SD-3, where Dem Alan Bates narrowly won, and the retaliatory Dem-funded recount in the race where Martha Schrader narrowly lost (she had been appointed to fill the seat vacated by her husband, now-Rep. Kurt Schrader), are over, with the numbers barely budging at all. The Dems retain a 16-14 majority.

TX-St. House: Two more party switchers to report, this time in the Texas state House, where Dems had actually entertained the notion of flipping the body a while ago and instead are now facing the wrong end of a supermajority. Aaron Pena and Allan Ritter have both announced that they’re joining the GOP, despite their blue districts (in fact, Pena’s Hidalgo County district went over 70% for Obama), apparently for the same rationale that the Georgia party-switchers are giving: deep in the minority, it’s the only way for them to have any effectiveness in the capitol.

Mayors: There’s a new Chicago mayoral poll out, where again the main question seems to be whether Rahm Emanuel can win outright without a runoff. That’s not looking likely, given the crowded field, although he still has a substantial lead in the new Tribune/WGN poll, at 32%. Gery Chico and Danny Davis are at 9, James Meeks is at 7, Carol Mosely Braun is at 6, Miguel del Valle is at 3, and Roland Burris is at 2, leaving 30 undecided. Emanuel leads among both blacks (with 19%) and Hispanics (27%).

One other mayoral race (or “situation,” really) that’s heating up is in San Francisco, where there’s a regularly scheduled 2011 election but also a looming vacancy with Gavin Newsom about to become Lt. Governor. The Board of Supervisors will have to choose an interim mayor to serve out those 11 months, and they’ll have to choose between one of their own who may be considering a November run, or an elder-statesman placekeeper. However, the Board is split any number of ways, and if there’s nobody who gets 6 of its 11 votes, the Board’s President, David Chiu, becomes acting mayor. The only person who seems in position to pick up at least six votes would be state Assemblyman Tom Ammiano.

Census: All manner of data analysis is pouring forth, in the wake of yesterday’s massive data dump of the Census Bureau’s five-year ACS estimates (which is where you’re going to find a lot of the information that used to be on the “long form”). Perhaps most amazingly of all is a new mapping tool from the New York Times, which lets you zoom in or out from the state level to the block level anywhere in the country to look at race and foreign-born status. (Set aside a few hours to explore this one.) Also worth reading are new articles on changes in racial segregation (in major decline in certain metro areas, especially Atlanta and Miami, which can have major VRA implications in terms of it being harder to cobble together districts that have a majority of any particular group) and in rural populations (declining rapidly, as you might imagine).

PA-Sen: Schwartz Won’t Challenge Specter

Not that it’s a surprise, but we can now officially cross off Democratic Rep. Allyson Schwartz from the open seat watch:

Aides to Rep. Allyson Schwartz say the third-term Pennsylvania Democrat will not seek her party’s nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2010.

Schwartz was among those widely talked about as a possible candidate, and had considered a Senate run. But after Arlen Specter’s party switch, Schwartz plans to support him and will focus on having a larger role in health-care policy in the House of Representatives.

Meanwhile, the Pennsylvania GOP, apparently unhappy-to-fearful with the idea of a Toomey general election candidacy and the havoc that it might wreak downballot, is searching fiercely for an alternative. The Hill mentions ex-Gov. Tom Ridge and current Reps. Jim Gerlach, Charlie Dent and Tim Murphy as possibilities. I’m not sure if any of those guys (particularly Ridge, who isn’t exactly a popular figure within the GOP’s base himself) would be interested in that kind of fight, but who the hell knows anymore.

Jurassic Park IV, or Redistricting Pennsylvania

(From the diaries with minor edits – promoted by DavidNYC)

As I’d promised in my diary on New Jersey, Pennsylvania would be the next state I’d tackle. This would  have been done a lot sooner, but those things called work and exams kind of got in the way….

My goal, flat out, was to carve more Democratic districts. I’m all for compactness when it comes to suitcases and mp3’s, but not when I’m gerrymandering states. Again, I kept Democratic Congresscritters in their homes.

Unlike New Jersey though, Pennsylvania is probably maxed-out when it comes to Democrats (save Gerlach and Dent, whose districts are certainly Democratic.) Pennsylvania is also losing one seat (most likely) in 2010, so I drew 18 seats on 2008 population estimates. I didn’t “merge” two districts per se, but more like took the 16th, 17th, and 19th and produced two districts from them.

I had the following goals in mind:

  • Dislodge Gerlach (6th) and Dent (15th) by increasing Democratic performance in their districts.

  • Give Dahlkemper (3rd), Altmire (4th), Murtha (12th), and Holden (17th) more favorable territory. They represent McCain districts now, I wanted to change those to Obama districts.

  • Maintain strength for Sestak (7th), Patrick Murphy (8th), Kanjorski (11th), and Schwartz (13th). They have decently strongly Democratic districts, which I wanted to maintain at their current levels.

  • Keep Brady (1st), Fattah (2nd), and Doyle (14th) in strongly Democratic districts, but perhaps not as absurdly strong as before. Obama scored 88%, 90%, and 70% respectively, I felt this could afford to be lowered somewhat. A corollary to this goal is keeping Fattah’s district majority Black. I didn’t bother with Brady’s currently plurality Black district, though it may still be.

Here’s the new map (click for full-size version):

Much more below the flip.

Again, to start, I used this map of Obama’s performance across the state, by municipality. As before, lightest shade is a margin of less than 5%, then 5 to 15, 15 to 25, 25 to 35, and the new uber-dark, which is a margin of 35+.

Going district by district, here’s what we’ve got. As a sidenote, I didn’t bother renumbering districts to make sense (which they don’t right now). I think it’s easier to keep core areas the same when numbering, since I think most of us automatically relate, for example, “PA-14” to Pittsburgh.

Summary statistics are: County, Population, Obama Votes, McCain Votes, Total Votes, Obama%, McCain%.

I’m going to go Northwest to Southeast, as opposed to in order by non-sensical district number. I think that makes the most sense.














































































































































3 689,046 169,632 139,373 314,100 54.01% 44.37%
Cameron 5,974 879 1,323 2,257 38.95% 58.62%
Centre 96,991 33,113 21,090 55,022 60.18% 38.33%
Clarion 11,906 2,701 2,626 5,432 49.72% 48.34%
Clearfield 38,795 7,372 7,835 15,582 47.31% 50.28%
Clinton 27,232 5,557 5,070 10,767 51.61% 47.09%
Crawford 88,880 16,780 20,750 38,134 44.00% 54.41%
Elk 32,914 7,290 6,676 14,361 50.76% 46.49%
Erie 279,255 75,775 50,351 127,691 59.34% 39.43%
Forest 4,946 1,038 1,366 2,468 42.06% 55.35%
McKean 20,003 3,579 3,628 7,370 48.56% 49.23%
Mercer 16,892 2,842 4,191 7,184 39.56% 58.34%
Venango 24,009 4,169 4,782 9,169 45.47% 52.15%
Warren 41,249 8,537 9,685 18,663 45.74% 51.89%

Sad to say, this district probably isn’t much more gerrymandered than its current counterpart. It contains the entirety of Erie and Crawford counties in the northwest, and starts a slow march towards State College. I’d hate to leave those Democratic votes behind, and plus they’re a good way to shore up Dahlkemper’s district, which Obama lost by 17 votes. It takes in the Democratic parts of Centre and Clinton counties on the east end, with some arms into Clarion and Venango. I’d like to think I succeeded, since Obama scored 45% in the 3rd’s part of Venango and 50% in Clarion, compared to 35% and 33% in the parts not in the 3rd. All in all, a 54% Obama district – a 6% increase from its current form.




















































4 689,397 182,724 168,763 356,152 51.31% 47.39%
Allegheny 389,960 110,152 102,177 214,148 51.44% 47.71%
Beaver 149,042 36,109 35,781 73,326 49.24% 48.80%
Lawrence 75,681 17,041 16,670 34,362 49.59% 48.51%
Mercer 74,714 19,422 14,135 34,316 56.60% 41.19%

Altmire is pretty much in the same boat as Dahlkemper, except with a district that Obama lost 44-55. There’s no need to complicate this by including any parts of Butler County, so this district sticks along the Ohio, Beaver, and Shenango Rivers up from Pittsburgh (but not including) to Sharon, through Allegheny, Beaver, Lawrence, and Mercer counties. It’s a point of pride for me that Obama won each county component. Specifically in Allegheny County, Altmire swaps out a bunch of Republican northern suburbs for friendlier stuff east of the city, notably Monroeville and Penn Hills. Obama scored 44% in the Allegheny portion of the old 4th, compard to 51% here. If Altmire didn’t live in Republican-leaning McCandless, there could have perhaps been more improvement. Anyways, this works out to a 51% Obama district – an improvement of 7%.




























































































18 689,231 136,738 218,177 359,372 38.05% 60.71%
Allegheny 127,747 30,252 41,789 72,634 41.65% 57.53%
Beaver 24,444 4,390 7,114 11,706 37.50% 60.77%
Butler 181,082 32,260 57,074 90,761 35.54% 62.88%
Greene 13,925 2,072 2,748 4,892 42.35% 56.17%
Lawrence 16,216 2,670 5,181 7,987 33.43% 64.87%
Mercer 25,909 4,147 8,239 12,668 32.74% 65.04%
Washington 82,349 18,019 27,503 46,141 39.05% 59.61%
Westmoreland 217,559 42,928 68,529 112,583 38.13% 60.87%

This district is what happens when you try to strip all the Republican territory out of the 3rd, 4th, and 12th districts and pack it together. Butler County has no place in a Democratic district, nor does the large chunk of Westmoreland County which is quickly trending away from us. Throw in some the northern Pittsburgh suburbs stripped out of Altmire’s district and the core of Tim Murphy’s old district, and you get this 38% – an 8% drop in Democratic performance.






















14 688,540 227,685 124,055 355,158 64.11% 34.93%
Allegheny 688,540 227,685 124,055 355,158 64.11% 34.93%

The 14th doesn’t change much – it keeps the entirety of the city of Pittsburgh and suburbs to the east like Swissvale and Doyle’s home in Forest Hills. Instead of reaching southwest, the new 14th looks south to the southern Pittsburgh suburbs like Upper St. Clair and Bethel Park. Arguably, this district is actually more compact than the current 14th. No worries for Mike F. Doyle though, since Obama still won 55% in the non-Pittsburgh part of the district.  Combine that with the 75% Obama scored in the city, and you get a 64% Democratic district, a drop of 6%.






































































































12 689,579 146,095 143,358 294,030 49.69% 48.76%
Allegheny 19,931 4,385 3,865 8,347 52.53% 46.30%
Armstrong 26,485 5,114 6,186 11,454 44.65% 54.01%
Cambria 131,716 29,955 28,623 59,705 50.17% 47.94%
Fayette 135,292 24,805 23,726 49,108 50.51% 48.31%
Greene 25,794 5,757 5,141 11,084 51.94% 46.38%
Indiana 55,368 12,477 12,254 25,068 49.77% 48.88%
Somerset 26,108 5,709 6,599 12,656 45.11% 52.14%
Washington 122,958 28,100 23,199 52,318 53.71% 44.34%
Westmoreland 145,927 29,793 33,765 64,290 46.34% 52.52%

It’s no secret Obama didn’t do all that hot in Southwest PA, and it’s painfully obvious here. Kerry won the old 12th, which Obama lost by about 1,000 votes. Trying to create an Obama district required some creative districting and ends up being more like connect-the-dots between traditionally Democratic Fayette and Greene counties, Johnstown (Murtha’s residence), Washington, the college town of Indiana, and Lower Burrell in Westmoreland. The old 12th pretty much packed all the Democratic votes in the area, so the increased population requirement really made me stretch. I think again, I have a strong case for this being more compact than the old 12th. Either way, it’s a slight improvement to a district Obama won by 3,000 votes, an improvement of 0.5%.












































































































































































9 689,087 102,284 191,267 298,149 34.31% 64.15%
Adams 5,926 1,018 1,671 2,739 37.17% 61.01%
Armstrong 42,940 6,024 12,356 18,627 32.34% 66.33%
Bedford 49,650 6,059 16,124 22,508 26.92% 71.64%
Blair 125,593 19,813 32,708 53,298 37.17% 61.37%
Cambria 14,271 2,496 3,372 5,965 41.84% 56.53%
Clarion 28,186 4,045 8,111 12,435 32.53% 65.23%
Clearfield 33,268 5,672 8,599 14,588 38.88% 58.95%
Cumberland 19,402 3,428 4,426 7,976 42.98% 55.49%
Fayette 9,667 1,090 2,054 3,172 34.36% 64.75%
Franklin 139,459 21,169 41,906 63,641 33.26% 65.85%
Fulton 14,261 1,576 4,642 6,306 24.99% 73.61%
Huntingdon 45,552 6,621 11,745 18,730 35.35% 62.71%
Indiana 32,520 4,588 7,473 12,236 37.50% 61.07%
Jefferson 45,151 6,447 12,057 18,904 34.10% 63.78%
Somerset 52,087 7,169 15,087 22,712 31.56% 66.43%
Venango 31,154 5,069 8,936 14,312 35.42% 62.44%

Moving into the ‘T’ now, this is the first of two extremely Republican districts. Arguably, there are two population centers, one in Altoona in Blair County and the other in Chambersburg in Franklin. From there, it moves northwest, picking up the parts of Somerset, Cambria, Indiana, and Armstrong not packed into Murtha’s 12th, and then the parts of Venango and Clarion not in Dahlkemper’s 3rd. At 34% Obama, this is the most Republican district in Pennsylvania and a 1% drop from the current 9th.










































































































































































































5 689,043 114,992 195,836 315,767 36.42% 62.02%
Berks 9,899 993 2,312 3,366 29.50% 68.69%
Centre 46,567 8,837 11,902 21,089 41.90% 56.44%
Clearfield 9,696 1,511 2,228 3,839 39.36% 58.04%
Clinton 10,002 1,540 2,434 4,024 38.27% 60.49%
Cumberland 199,164 43,028 57,531 102,130 42.13% 56.33%
Dauphin 43,419 8,423 15,149 23,834 35.34% 63.56%
Juniata 23,163 3,068 6,484 9,819 31.25% 66.04%
Lebanon 53,875 9,202 16,904 26,528 34.69% 63.72%
Lycoming 49,426 7,076 15,691 23,131 30.59% 67.84%
McKean 23,852 2,886 5,596 8,645 33.38% 64.73%
Mifflin 46,609 5,375 10,929 16,502 32.57% 66.23%
Montour 3,868 590 1,167 1,771 33.31% 65.89%
Northumberland 22,909 3,245 6,360 9,734 33.34% 65.34%
Perry 44,850 6,396 13,058 19,745 32.39% 66.13%
Potter 18,080 2,300 5,109 7,583 30.33% 67.37%
Schuylkill 10,533 1,776 3,294 5,139 34.56% 64.10%
Snyder 23,134 2,499 6,442 9,069 27.56% 71.03%
Tioga 24,641 3,610 7,527 11,305 31.93% 66.58%
Union 25,356 2,637 5,719 8,514 30.97% 67.17%

The is the other Republican district taking in a large chunk of the T. More packing of Republicans here, as this district on the east side swaps many tentacles with Chris Carney’s new 10th district. Any pockets of even-remotely Democratic friendliness are pulled out, including Williamsport and Sunbury. What’s left is expansive Republican space, centered in Cumberland County moving north towards the Northern Tier. At 36% Obama, this is a drop of 8%.
































































































































































































10 688,967 134,946 156,456 296,409 45.53% 52.78%
Berks 8,704 1,724 2,167 3,995 43.15% 54.24%
Bradford 61,626 10,306 15,057 25,884 39.82% 58.17%
Columbia 64,663 13,019 14,255 27,838 46.77% 51.21%
Dauphin 5,728 823 1,231 2,073 39.70% 59.38%
Lackawanna 44,778 13,784 10,806 24,913 55.33% 43.37%
Luzerne 11,637 2,044 3,020 5,153 39.67% 58.61%
Lycoming 67,880 11,305 14,589 26,316 42.96% 55.44%
Montour 14,368 2,757 3,388 6,216 44.35% 54.50%
Northumberland 68,307 11,083 12,655 24,201 45.80% 52.29%
Pike 57,102 11,493 12,519 24,285 47.33% 51.55%
Schuylkill 108,170 20,758 23,247 44,766 46.37% 51.93%
Snyder 14,849 2,883 3,458 6,410 44.98% 53.95%
Sullivan 6,556 1,233 1,841 3,131 39.38% 58.80%
Susquehanna 41,388 8,381 10,633 19,383 43.24% 54.86%
Tioga 16,194 2,780 3,799 6,679 41.62% 56.88%
Union 17,997 4,696 4,140 8,961 52.40% 46.20%
Wayne 51,139 9,892 12,702 22,932 43.14% 55.39%
Wyoming 27,881 5,985 6,949 13,273 45.09% 52.35%

You can’t win all of them, and this is the one district that wasn’t to my liking. I really wanted to protect Carney a bit more, but the territory simply wasn’t there to do that and protect the Democratic strength of Kanjorski’s 11th. I chose to hedge a bit and to keep the 11th strongly Democratic. It might be a waste to protect Kanjorski like that, but he’s got to retire eventually and we can definitely get a good Democrat out of Scranton. Thus, this district starts in Wayne and Pike counties, before moving through Susquehanna (Carney lives in Dimock) and northern Lackawanna counties. Lycoming County outside of Williamsport is stripped out as much as possible, and it gains Columbia County and a large chunk of Schuylkill County freed up from Holden’s 17th. Surprisingly, I still managed a gain of 0.5% to 45.5% Obama. Carney should be fine here regardless.




















































11 689,582 177,101 128,039 309,934 57.14% 41.31%
Carbon 62,326 13,464 12,957 27,050 49.77% 47.90%
Lackawanna 164,442 53,736 28,682 83,626 64.26% 34.30%
Luzerne 300,203 70,448 58,107 130,815 53.85% 44.42%
Monroe 162,611 39,453 28,293 68,443 57.64% 41.34%

Kanjorski was probably saved in 2008 by Obama’s coattails, and shoring up the 11th was one of my major goals. Surprisingly, this actually becomes more compact, too, it seems. What we get is a district centered on the Lackawanna Valley. 43% of this district is Wilkes-Barre and Luzerne County, and another 23% each for Scranton/Lackawanna County and Monroe County. All in all, a 57% Obama district, up 0.3% from the old 11th. Also a rare victory for compactness.


















































































17 689,314 176,601 148,808 329,673 53.57% 45.14%
Berks 52,440 11,062 13,461 24,959 44.32% 53.93%
Cumberland 6,969 1,850 1,782 3,719 49.74% 47.92%
Dauphin 199,854 59,866 40,264 101,138 59.19% 39.81%
Lancaster 229,139 60,406 52,477 114,386 52.81% 45.88%
Lebanon 72,551 14,108 17,410 32,035 44.04% 54.35%
Schuylkill 28,135 5,938 7,418 13,522 43.91% 54.86%
York 100,226 23,371 15,996 39,914 58.55% 40.08%

Connect the dots version 2.0 here, as we string together the cities of York, Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Tim Holden’s home in St. Clair in Schuylkill County, all of which are strongly Democratic. They’re counterbalanced by the Republican outlying portions of York, Dauphin, and Lancaster counties, though. However, 59% Obama performances in the 17th’s parts of Dauphin and York and a 53% showing in Lancaster anchor this 54% Obama district on balance, an improvement of 6% from the current 17th.








































































16 688,715 118,510 197,429 320,910 36.93% 61.52%
Adams 93,986 16,615 24,678 41,924 39.63% 58.86%
Berks 9,821 2,245 3,260 5,596 40.12% 58.26%
Chester 1,059 243 552 806 30.15% 68.49%
Dauphin 5,275 759 1,576 2,362 32.13% 66.72%
Lancaster 264,774 39,180 74,091 114,863 34.11% 64.50%
York 313,800 59,468 93,272 155,359 38.28% 60.04%

This is what remains of the old 16th and 19th districts once the Democratic cities are stripped out. There’s really not much to say about this district based in York and Lancaster, except that it’s the last “Republican” district we have to talk about, it only gets better from here. At 37% Obama, it’s a drop of 6% from the old 19th and 10% from the old 16th – which was intentional, of course.










































15 688,754 177,367 136,903 318,961 55.61% 42.92%
Berks 65,559 15,023 14,970 30,535 49.20% 49.03%
Lehigh 333,423 87,089 63,382 152,473 57.12% 41.57%
Northampton 289,772 75,255 58,551 135,953 55.35% 43.07%

Starting with the Lehigh Valley, the 15th continues to have the entirety of Northampton County. Lehigh County did have a bite taken out of it by the old pterodactyl of the 6th, but the Lehigh in its entirety stays here too. Instead of reaching into MontCo with two rods hugging the MontCo-Berks and MontCo-BucksCo line, it goes for Bucks County instead. At 56% Obama, this is a slight improvement. Charlie Dent should be gone as soon as we get a good challenger anyway.

Southeast PA is definitely (in my mind, anyway), the coup de grace of this map. Here’s an inset of that:

Each district is colored by county component: all greens are the 6th or 8th, blues are the 7th or 13th, red is the 1st, and yellow is the 2nd.

First, the boring stuff (i.e. the 1st and 2nd):
































1 689,174 266,010 78,010 347,098 76.64% 22.47%
Delaware 208,267 65,596 42,719 109,675 59.81% 38.95%
Philadelphia 480,907 200,414 35,291 237,423 84.41% 14.86%

Bob Brady’s district remains anchored in South Philly with an arm into Delaware County. The composition of this arm, however, is significantly different. Brady swaps with Sestak some cities (notably strongly-Democratic Chester city) for some Republican leaning parts of the Main Line. Brady’s old 1st had a 89% Democratic section of DelCo, the new 1st has a 60% Democratic section. This lowers Democratic performance by about 11%, down to 77%. Brady need not be concerned.






















2 688,659 303,286 34,983 339,990 89.20% 10.29%
Philadelphia 688,659 303,286 34,983 339,990 89.20% 10.29%

No significant changes for Chaka Fattah. His district still contains most of West Philly. Cheltenham in MontCo is removed, substituted for an arm into Northeast Philly. The changes aren’t all that significant, the district is only down 0.85% in Obama performance.










































8 686,233 199,224 162,328 365,625 54.49% 44.40%
Bucks 619,093 179,031 150,248 332,924 53.78% 45.13%
Montgomery 27,576 7,460 5,533 13,168 56.65% 42.02%
Philadelphia 39,564 12,733 6,547 19,533 65.19% 33.52%

Consistent with tradition, Bucks County remains in the 8th in its entirety. The old 8th had an odd-looking protrusion into MontCo (where Obama got 63%), and took a section of Northeast Philly where Obama barely edged McCain with 49%. We flip the roles here, instead taking Wards 41 and 65 of the city, where Obama got 65%. We also take a few municipalities (funnily, Hatfield Twp, Hatfield Boro, and Hatboro Boro) in MontCo, where Obama got 57%. Overall, Obama got 54.5%, up 0.5%.
































13 688,902 224,312 140,834 368,302 60.90% 38.24%
Montgomery 443,652 144,765 100,434 247,223 58.56% 40.62%
Philadelphia 245,250 79,547 40,400 121,079 65.70% 33.37%

The 13th remains a MontCo-Philly hybrid. It takes in more of MontCo now, consistent with the increased population constraint, reaching all the way to the Berks County Line. Instead of reaching through the city, the new 13th no longer touches the Delaware River, stopping short by grabbing Northeast Philly taken from the 8th. Centered in Abingdon (it’s the largest municipality), the new 13th’s section of MontCo is 59% Obama, up from 57%, and the new 13th’s section of Philly is 66% Obama, up from 60%. Together, this makes for a 61% Obama district, up from 58%.










































7 689,283 219,653 154,096 377,651 58.16% 40.80%
Chester 211,997 66,693 57,071 125,146 53.29% 45.60%
Delaware 345,246 113,274 72,554 187,835 60.31% 38.63%
Montgomery 132,040 39,686 24,471 64,670 61.37% 37.84%

The new 7th stays composed of ChesCo, DelCo, and MontCo. Since more of DelCo is given to Brady’s 1st, this district becomes more Chester County heavy, reaching further north and west into the county. It, incidentally, takes Jim Gerlach’s home in West Pikeland Township here. Even so, the new ChesCo portion is 53% Obama, up from 50%. The DelCo section gets a healthy boost from the city of Chester while keeping in Radnor, Haverford, and Upper Darby along the Main Line. The New DelCo section is 60% Obama, up from 56%. The MontCo part remains mostly the same, taking in Norristown, Upper Merion, and Lower and Upper Providence Townships. Combined, this is a 58% Obama district, up 2.5%.










































6 688,652 198,024 136,472 338,576 58.49% 40.31%
Berks 251,731 66,000 44,343 112,060 58.90% 39.57%
Chester 265,765 70,897 56,798 129,300 54.83% 43.93%
Montgomery 171,156 61,127 35,331 97,216 62.88% 36.34%

My favorite district. The pterodactyl is back (hence the title, get it?), and it’s leaner and meaner (to Republicans, anyway). The body remains majority Chester, but it swaps out a large swath of eastern ChesCo for townships along the Lancaster County line freed up from the 16th. It still, however, keeps Democratic centers in Downington and Coatesville, and adds West Chester proper, which was gerrymandered into the 16th before. Obama performed roughly the same in the old and new Chester part.

As before, the left wing reaches into Berks County, but before, Reading was cracked three ways between the 6th, 16th, and 17th. Now, Reading and its 81% Obama goodness are kept whole in this district, raising Obama’s performance in Berks from 54% to 59%. The right arm is still my favorite. Originally, Republicans conceived of this as a way to crack MontCo into two Republican (PA-06, PA-07) and one swing district (PA-13). This is best termed, I think, an EPIC FAIL. The old right arm was 64% Obama, and this new version is 63%. I maintained the anchor in Lower Merion Township and Narberth, since their combined 71% Obama goodness is just too good to give up. Combined, this raises Obama’s performance here by another 1% to 58.5%.

So there you have it, a new, 18-seat map for Pennsylvania. Comments? Questions? Which state should I do next? Please share what you think the districts look like, also!

PA-18: Tim Murphy (R) Under Federal Investigation

The scandals just never end.  According to local media, Republican Rep. Tim Murphy of Pennsylvania is under federal investigation surrounding allegations that some of his legislative staffers were forced into doing campaign work on government time:

According to the congressional ethics manual, campaign matters must be handled by a separate staff.

But some former workers say that wasn’t the case.

“There were several times when staff was asked and basically pressured into doing campaign activities,” said Jayne O’Shaughnessy, a former staffer for Murphy.

Documents obtained by KDKA at least suggest that.

One document is a campaign planning timeline, which appears to require “D.O.” meaning district office employees go door-to-door.

It’s a document that Murphy took from KDKA Investigator Andy Sheehan when he showed it to him in November.

“This is my personal materials. I don’t know how you got this, but this is my personal materials. I’m taking it back,” said Murphy.

Just in case you forgot about that wonderfully absurd moment last month wherein Congressman Murphy “reclaimed” his “personal materials”, check out this hysterical news clip on YouTube.

Murphy’s district, the 18th, has a slight Republican lean (Cook rates it as R+2.2), but Clinton won this area handily in the ’90s.  I would suggest that recruiting a strong challenge to Murphy should be high on the To Do List of local and state Democrats for 2007.

(Thanks to walja for the scoop.)