• MA-Sen: Vicki Kennedy has pretty much ruled out a Senate run, if her comments to the Boston Globe are any indication. She says “the Senate is not my future;” poignantly, she recounts having received Ted’s encouragement to run before his death but responding “You’re Senator Kennedy, and that’s it.” Another Kennedy made some news yesterday, though, in fact generating his own little boomlet of Senatorial speculation: Joe III (son of the ex-Rep. and grandson of RFK) gave a mightily well-received speech in front of state legislators decrying the noxious turn in the nation’s political discourse. The 30-year-old is currently a prosecutor in Barnstable County and has turned down previous attempts to get him to run for office. Finally, some of the more cogent members of the local tea party seem to have made peace with the fact, despite their discomfort with his voting record, that Scott Brown isn’t going to be successfully challenged in the GOP primary in 2012, and are dissuading others from that line of thought. The article mentions recent House race losers Jeff Perry and Jim Ogonowski as possible names, but in the context of even them not likely to be able to gain any traction against Brown in a primary.
• PA-Sen: PPP released Republican primary numbers as part of their Pennsylvania package today, and as with many of their recent primary polls, it’s quite the collection of people who aren’t going to run. They try doing it both with-Santorum and without-Santorum. (Yes, yes, I know that sounds gross.) The Santorum-covered version, thanks to his high name rec (81% of GOPers have an opinion about him, while Schweiker comes in second at 33%), finds him way in the lead, at 45, with Rep. Jim Gerlach at 9, ex-Gov. Mark Schweiker and Rep. Charlie Dent both at 8, Rep. Tim Murphy at 7, state Sen. Jake Corman at 3, and state Sen. Kim Ward and actual announced candidate Marc Scaringi both at 1. The Santorum-free version gives the edge to Schweiker at 18, Gerlach at 14, Murphy at 13, Dent at 10, Corman at 9, Ward at 2, and Scaringi at 1.
• TX-Sen: This story may be better filed under “Dallas mayor” since it points to a somewhat unexpected vacancy that’s going to need to be filled in November. The mayoral candidacy of city council member Ron Natinsky, a key ally of Republican mayor Tom Leppert, makes it pretty clear that Leppert isn’t going to run for a second term as mayor. Leppert has often been cited a potential wild card in the GOP Senate primary against Kay Bailey Hutchison, and this may mean he’s moving toward that race.
• MS-Gov: Hattiesburg mayor Johnny DuPree made it official today, filing his papers for a gubernatorial run. He’ll face off against businessman Bill Luckett in the Democratic primary, and if he wins there, most likely against Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant in the general.
• IL-14: A new profile of ex-Rep. Bill Foster has him sounding pretty uncandidate-ish in the future. He says he’d like to explore business opportunities in green energy and would consider an executive branch position if asked, but there’s nary a suggestion of a rematch.
• PA-Auditor: Allegheny Co. Exec (and 2010 gubernatorial loser) Dan Onorato says he won’t run for a third term as county executive; this is widely assumed to mean that he’ll be pursuing a bid for state Auditor in 2012. (I’m wondering if Jack Wagner, whom you also remember from the gubernatorial race, can run for a 3rd term as Auditor, and, if so, if he’s ruled it out? Anybody know about that?) At any rate, Onorato seems to be looking at lower statewide office as a better stepping-stone for his ambitions; he’s young enough that he’s probably thinking down the road to a 2016 challenge to Pat Toomey or even the 2018 open seat gubernatorial race (which, if history is any guide, will go to a Democrat).
• Special elections: As expected, last night’s special elections in Virginia went to the Republicans with totals over 60% (letting them hold both of the red districts up for grabs). Gregory Habeeb is taking over for Robert Hurt in SD-19, while William Stanley takes over for Morgan Griffith in HD-8. Also, in Mississippi, Nancy Adams Collins won in SD-11 to succeed Alan Nunnelee; I can’t find any confirmation that she, in fact, was the Republican in the race, but I have dim memories (correct me if I’m wrong) from the myriad MS-01 special elections that special elections in Mississippi don’t include party labels on the ballot.
• 2010: You’re probably all familiar with the gender gap, but Michael McDonald shows in pretty dramatic fashion just how significant the “age gap” has become, with a 16-point gap in 2010 between the parties between the 18-29 set and the 65+ set, the largest that’s ever been. The unfortunate flipside, which does a lot to explain the 2010 results, is that young voter falloff in midterm elections (25% in 2006, 51% in 2008) is much greater than among older voters (63% in 2006, 71% in 2008), boosting Republican odds thanks to their increased strength among seniors.
• Demographics: I suppose we don’t need any hints about where people are moving since we just got reapportionment data, but here’s some more in-depth data from the Census Bureau, based on what states people are moving into and out of. Long-distance moves hit a record low in 2009, thanks in large part to the sluggish economy disproportionately hitting young adults. Housing bubble/service-sector cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Orlando had drops in migration, while more knowledge-sector places like Austin, Raleigh, and Portland were gainers among young adults.
• Redistricting: I’m hesitant to heap praise on one particular Dave’s Redistricting App map diary here, because, really, they’re all fantastic and an important part of the site and the community; I learn something new from most of them and they’re all time-consuming works of art, so thanks to everyone who posts them. But silver spring’s Illinois diary is worthy of some extra attention, in the hopes that the powers-that-be (in this state that’s probably the Dems’ single best shot to run up the redistricting score) might see this diary and take its basic ideas into account. It’s a map that takes the almost-unthinkable and makes it plausible: a map that’s 15-3 in favor of Democrats based on 2008 presidential data, and even creates a second Hispanic VRA district for good measure.
I guess it’s Capuano?
Yep, all the statewide electeds (Gov, Atty Gen, Aud Gen, Treasurer) are limited to two four-year terms. Pa Const, Art IV sec 18:
Senator-elect Collins is indeed a Republican, Democrats didn’t even come into second place in these races including another local race, where there will be a runoff between 2 GOPers in a post that was held by a Democrat.
May 12 to be exact.
http://www.wfaa.com/news/local…
No mention of PPPolling having Menendez looking weak?
William Stanley taking over for Morgan Griffith. I thought politicians from that area were supposed to hate Wall Street!
MA-Sen: As with Snowe, I dont get why tea-partiers are throwing in the towel already. They didnt do much in the way of recruiting in 2010 and they managed to find candidates they liked and won primaries with just fine. The lesson they need to learn from 2010 isn’t to find big name candidates, it’s that no names candidates are fine if they dont have fatal flaws.
How did Dallas elect a Republican mayor?
Off to look at Silver Springs diary. 15/3 with a second Hispanic VRA? I call bullshit! 😉
Surprisingly strong numbers. 50% job approval.
http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
99.9999% sure PA constitutional office holders have a 2-term limit. That’s why quite a few of them have bounced back and forth between Auditor and Treasurer.
the chances of the Democrats winning the mayoral race in Dallas?
Also, if things were to go badly for the Democrats in Illinois, like they did this year, what are the chances of Democrats losing more than one or two of these seats?
What does everyone think will happen when the RNC chair election takes place Friday?
A few weeks ago, I felt like Wagner would win. She had momentum and had just passed up Anuzis in public commitments and was nipping on Steele’s heels. Now, her momentum has slowed drastically at the wrong time. Since then, she has picked up little more support, Anuzis retied her, and Cino is just two behind, after doubling her support in the last week. Now, I feel like Anuzis is the candidate to watch. He is easily the most liked by everyone, has been an RNC member for a while, and is able to pick up Steele allies since he worked for Steele after he won in 2009. He has avoided attacking Steele, and, unlike Priebus, Steele’s people do not see him as a traitor. If Wagner or Cino drop out after the first few rounds, their support is more likely to go to Anuzis, rather than Priebus, since they ran the most anti-Steele campaigns. Wagner’s is still in it, as she has received some positive press the last few days, and there are many members on the record as being for Wagner or Cino or Wagner or anuzis, but have yet to publicly commit. If Cino drops early, Wagner is the main beneficiary, as her supporters are people who only would consider Wagner and Cino, since they were the only two without any Steele ties. If Cino’s support pushes Wagner past Anuzis and he drops out, she again is the main beneficiary. Much of their support is from movement conservatives and the south, so they will probably pick up most of each others support (assuming cino is out early). Right now, I could see anything happening, except a Steele victory. If I were a betting man, I’d bet on Anuzis, but Wagner, or even Cino, could pull the upset. I have a hard time seeing Priebus getting through with so many still undeclared.
That it’s (still) the economy, stupid.
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/18…
run for anything except his House seat in 2012.
Governor is out of the question with Rick Hill running, and Senate gets more and more unlikely with him FINALLY getting a subcommittee chairmanship. More importantly, the State GOP is starting to pimp Daines and raise his public profile. If Rehberg were still seriously considering a run, I think they’d more or less ignore Daines.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…
When Red Racing Horses launches next week, we will have an interview with him.
An AZ GOP District Chairman is stepping down because he now fears for his life in the wake of the shootings.
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpoi…
I could see him running a very non-partisan campaign where voters dont see the difference between the parties and decide to elect even more Republicans downballot, causing Democrats to lose even more seats in the House and Senate and make up no ground in state legislatures(where Democrats are now in a very deep hole). Does anyone else fear this scenario?
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
bet Brown would love a primary. It would really help him in the GE and I don’t think he could lose. Mass isn’t Delaware.
Obama at memorial. Says Giffords opened her eyes for the first time. Great news.
from http://twitter.com/moelane
Prediction: Presidential approval will go over 60% by next week, and will stay that way for at least a bit after the State of the Union.
The comments don’t seem all that bad.
Personally, I thought Obama was great.
He lost his home of Allegheny county to Governor Corbett. Yes, that would be the county that has Pittsburgh!
Hello, Sen. Michael Williams.
Not sure if this was mentioned, but here’s an amazing interview with Kirsten Gillibrand and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz regarding Gabby Giffords.
It’s the second interview down after Gibbs’.
I literally was tearing up reading it. This woman is a tank…she’s incredible.
http://thepage.time.com/2011/0…