The senate seat of Massachusetts is one of the best opportunities of the democrats for win new seats in 2012. It is obvious. No doubt here.
D+12 state + presidential race would be not a bad prospect despite the republican incumbent is still so popular.
The last new for this race is what V Kennedy will not run. Well, it is not a good new, but it is not enough for be pessimistic still. Where is my hope now?
In 2009, before T Kennedy dies, a poll of Suffolk in march give the next ressult:
Q26. If Ted Kennedy were to vacate his U.S. Senate seat, who would you like to
see run for the U.S. Senate seat?
N= 400 100%
Charlie Baker (R) ………………………… 01 ( 1/123) 3 1%
Tim Cahill (D) …………………………… 02 3 1%
Mike Capuano (D) …………………………. 03 3 1%
Andy Card (R) ……………………………. 04 5 1%
Martha Coakley (D) ……………………….. 05 24 6%
Chris Gabrieli (D) ……………………….. 06 7 2%
Bill Galvin (D) ………………………….. 07 2 1%
Joe Kennedy (D) ………………………….. 08 32 8%
Vicky Kennedy (D) ………………………… 09 3 1%
Stephen Lynch (D) ………………………… 10 3 1%
Marty Meehan (D) …………………………. 11 1 0%
Tom Menino (D) …………………………… 12 3 1%
Christy Mihos (R) ………………………… 13 5 1%
Tim Murray (D) …………………………… 14 1 0%
Mitt Romney (R) ………………………….. 15 22 6%
John Kerry ………………………………. 16 5 1%
Barney Frank …………………………….. 17 4 1%
Name ……………………………………. 97 25 6%
Undecided (DO NOT READ) …………………… 98 246 62%
Refused (DO NOT READ) …………………….. 99 3 1%
http://www.suffolk.edu/images/…
Here Joe Kennedy was the most liked politician for run for the senate seat of T Kennedy, but here, as example, they are not important options like D Patrick, E Markey and some others.
Later, in September 2009 the first poll of Suffolk about the democratic primary, where Coakley was leading tell the next:
Poll: Coakley has Early Lead in U.S. Senate Race9/16/2009
Voters expect Attorney General Martha Coakley to be elected to the U.S. Senate in the January 2010 special election, but they express a marked preference for Joe Kennedy to succeed his uncle, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University/7NEWS.
Voters also said they support a move to allow the governor to appoint an interim senator, with 55 percent favoring a change in state law to make this possible, and 41 percent opposed.
Kennedy preference
Fifty-nine percent of Democratic voters polled said they would have voted for Joe Kennedy in the Senate primary race, and 62 percent of all voters have a favorable opinion of the former congressman, who has said that he will not run for the seat left vacant by the death of Sen. Edward M. Kennedy.“If Joe Kennedy runs, Joe Kennedy wins,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “Across every demographic, Kennedy was strong. In fact, fifty-four percent of Martha Coakley Democratic Primary voters said they would vote for Joe Kennedy, if he ran.”
Coakley’s favorability rate is 53 percent. Her favorability was 56 percent in a March 2009 poll by the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
Name recognition a factor
Democratic Congressman Mike Capuano, who is expected to announce his candidacy this week, had a favorability rate of 16 percent, but 33 percent of those polled had never heard of him. Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca’s name was added to the poll for the last of the four days the poll was conducted — after his name was floated as a potential candidate. Again, name recognition was a problem: 72 percent had not heard of him, and 3 percent viewed him favorably.On the Republican side, state Sen. Scott Brown, who has declared his candidacy, had 20 percent favorability; 39 percent did not recognize his name. Former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling, said to be considering a run, had no trouble with name recognition; 12 percent did not know him. His favorability was 29 percent in the Suffolk/7News poll, outweighed by his unfavorable rate of 39 percent.
Voters were asked to choose from among potential Democratic Primary candidates, some of whom have since withdrawn from the fray. They chose Coakley (47 percent), Capuano (9 percent), U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch (6 percent) and City Year founder Alan Khazei (3 percent). Thirty-three percent were undecided. Voters who chose Lynch were surveyed again after he dropped out of the race on Tuesday.
When asked whom they would choose in a head-to-head race between Coakley and Brown in the final election, 54 percent chose Coakley, and 24 percent chose Brown, with 20 percent undecided.
Voters said the most important issues facing the next U.S. senator from Massachusetts are health care (45 percent) and the economy/jobs (27 percent).
Methodology
The statewide survey of 500 Massachusetts registered voters was conducted Sept. 12-15, 2009. Of those polled, 39 percent were registered Democrats, 15 percent Republicans, and 44 percent independent. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and 140 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site at 10 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 16. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.Back to News »
http://www.suffolk.edu/37947.html
Suffolk tell what J Kennedy would defeat all the democratic candidates for 2010 senate election if he would run then.
Martha Coakley was second in the first poll and was leading the second, but finally she lost.
In 2010, the last PPP poll tell:
Vicki Kennedy (D): 22
Barney Frank (D): 17
Mike Capuano (D): 15
Deval Patrick (D): 13
Ed Markey (D): 7
Stephen Lynch (D): 7
Tom Menino (D): 3
Tim Murray (D): 1
Undecided: 15
MoE: ±6.2%Vicki Kennedy (D): 41
Scott Brown (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 11Deval Patrick (D): 42
Scott Brown (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 9Ed Markey (D): 39
Scott Brown (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 13Mike Capuano (D): 36
Scott Brown (R-inc): 52
Undecided: 12Stephen Lynch (D): 30
Scott Brown (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 20(MoE: ±4.4%)
Here V Kennedy lead, and D Patrick have the same result. But unfortunatelly we have not again a complete information because important people like J Kennedy are not here, and give not the result for B Frank in a face to face. Now V Kennedy and D Patrick run not. It is not the end.
My first conclussion looking to these polls is what some or many people want a Kennedy as candidate. And if both are in the list, like in the Suffolt poll of March 2009, they prefer J Kennedy.
From the three polls (and leaving M Coakley out) I think we must take into account the results of:
of J Kennedy in first place
of V Kennedy (out) in second place
and of D Patrick (out), B Frank, E Markey and M Capuano in third place.
I would not be surprised if J Kennedy would be under – 5% against S Brown. Or in tie.
I think we must find new polls. I think it is very important to give to the people what they want. It is very important what the people feel what the candidate what they want is in and is ready for serve in the senate. If not the people will feel less hope for this race.
But he seems pretty firm in staying out. The key I think is that the better known they are the better the Dem does. And hardly anybody knows the most likely candidates. And remember, Deval Patrick isn’t the most popular guy in the world and still gets within 7. I think that is the baseline. And in such a Democratic state I do believe a strong campaign and presidential turnout can bridge that gap despite Brown’s appeal.
crossover support from Democrats can Brown expect? Is it anything really incredible like 50 to 60 percent, or is something more along the lines of 30 percent, which is still very high but far more manageable for the Democratic candidate? And what about Independents?
I’m starting to think that the poster who suggested that the Democrats find someone that has never voted to raise taxes and has never cheated on his spouse to just smile and wave and the seat will flip was definitely on to something.
If you look at the 2008 exit polls for president, Democrats made up 43 percent of voters, while Republicans made up 17 percent and Independents made up 40 percent of voters. (They were, according to CNN, slightly different for Senate, but not enough to make using one set more worthwhile than the other.) If that’s the case, and the Democrat wins 70 percent of Democratic voters, 10 percent of Republican voters, and splits Independents, he wins with 51.8 percent in a two-man race.
But in that January special election, he blew Coakley away with Independents winning that group by 32 points. He only won 19 percent of the Democratic vote. Let’s assume that, in a two-man race, he wins 25 percent of Democrats, 90 percent of Republicans, and 60 percent of Independents. He’d win, just barely, with 50.05 percent of the vote. But if he gets 19 percent of Democrats and the other numbers stay the same, he only gets 47.47 percent of the vote. If he wins only 19 percent of the Democratic vote but gets an amazing 65 percent of the Independent vote, he still loses with 49.47 percent.
I’m wouldn’t take anything for granted, but I am starting to feel a lot better about this race.
I think the challenge here for Democrats is one of narrative. Why should Brown be defeated?
Is he too conservative? If so on what issues?
If you can’t answer this sort of question you end up in what having worked in Maine for a while I tend to call “Maine Democrat Death Spiral”
1. Candidate assumes all they have to do is consolidate the base. They proceed to campaign on nothing and try and lock up interest group support.
2. Having got themselves the nomination they find themselves behind, with few knowing who they are. Lacking a personal story other than switched between state house and senate every six years for three decades to avoid term-limits candidate decides to go hard negative.
3.In Senate races: National groups, seeing how nasty the race is going, and needing to be on good terms with the GOP incumbent who will clearly win, begin to withdraw support so as to avoid offending said incumbent
In Governors Races: Replace national groups with teachers/unions.
4. Repeat steps 2 and 3 until candidate loses badly.
Now Massachusetts is more Democratic than Maine, but there are some similarities. People like Brown, more importantly, in a state where the congressional delegation is generally viewed with one or two exceptions as non-entities, he is a star, especially with GOP House. You have to come up with a reason to oust him and replace him with a random Democrat who will promptly drop off the face of the earth.
The latter is a big issue. My parents voted for Coakley. They voted for Clinton, Gore, Kerry, and Obama. They voted for O’Brien and Patrick. They don’t like Brown particularly. But they will most likely vote for him. Why? because he is the only person running an effective statewide constituent service operation, and he is using his power in the senate to extract concessions for MA from Obama. What pisses off people here so much about Brown is not viewed as a bad thing. As long as important things like DADT, Financial Reform, etc actually pass, people appreciate him holding Obama to ransom. And they doubt any Democrat would do so, or any Democrat would be able to do so with a GOP President.
Generic D–let’s say Mike Capuano–can win the race just by saying “I’m a Democrat and Scott Brown is one of those Republicans” if a lot of other things go right for them. But at this point, I think Dems would be an underdog if they took that strategy, and their win would be highly dependent on a strong Obama re-election and an unpopular Republican Congress. I use Collins-Allen as a comparison: ME may be less Democratic than MA, but Collins won by 20 points whereas Brown only needs to get 50%+1, and Collins has never had the charismatic advantages Brown brings to the table.
To put themselves in the driver’s seat, Democrats need to think past the Generic D’s and find themselves an exciting, energetic candidate of their own who won’t be drawn out by Brown’s rock-star cache. This person needs to be someone who can give them a reason to get out and vote for them, a reason stronger than “I’m a Democrat and this state always votes Democratic.” If the D’s nominate someone exciting, be it Sonia Chang Diaz or Joe Kennedy 3rd or maybe even Alan Khazei, Brown will be in a heap of trouble.
One of the earlier comments included the State Senator’s name, and I honestly think she represents the best opportunity for MA Democrats.
I have watched her for years, and this woman really is a progressive champion – superficially, she is a young woman who is beyond charismatic, a minority candidate who would excite the base unbelievably. A former teacher, she got her start in politics by knocking off corrupt State Sen. Dianne Wilkerson in a primary (a woman who was caught on video stuffing bribes in her bra!).
When she appeared on a video at this past year’s State Convention people roared with approval.
The biggest lesson I took from 2010 was from the Coakley defeat. But the second biggest lesson comes from teh 2010 elections in November, where Democrats made a clean sweep of all state-wide offices…even as we were running dramatically weaker candidates (and I mean “weak” in every sense of the word…exhibit A: S. Bump, Auditor).
If we have a candidate that even remotely excites the base (which Sonia really would more than do) then that, coupled with our great organization, really could bump Brown right out.