In sports, people spend a lot of time talking about “prospects”, the young talent in the minor leagues that they expect to see in the major leagues in the future. I thought it would be an interesting thread if we talked about folks who are now in the “minors” (ie state legislatures, mayors, and other fields) that would be good candidates for major offices (Gov, Sen, US House) sometime soon.
So, without further delay, here are five profiles of people to watch. I’m interested in seeing what other prospects are out there….
1. Andrew Romanoff (Colorado)
Who Is He: Former Speaker of the Colorado State House, represented the 6th State House District
Where Would He Run: CO-Sen? CO-Gov?
Why Isn’t He In Congress Already: Romanoff had the misfortune of retiring just as every single possible slot in the state delegation that’s winnable for a Dem got filled. If someone less quirky than Bill Ritter was Governor, he likely would have been tapped for an appointment to Salazar’s vacated Senate seat. The other problem for Romanoff is that even though Dems control the trifecta in Colorado, it would be very difficult and risky to draw another Dem seat, as Markey has to be shored up as does John Salazar (though much less so); there almost certainly has to be at least one GOP seat based in Colorado Springs, and probably, although not certainly, another based in Douglas County.
Theoretically, he could challenge Ritter or Bennet in the primary, though that would be a mighty tough slog. Ritter is vulnerable on his left flank to an extent. DeGette’s too popular in the 1st, so unless Obama appoints her to something, that avenue is closed.
2. Christopher Hurst (Washington State)
Who Is He: State Representative for the 31st House District in Southern King and Pierce Counties
Where Would He Run: WA-08
Why He Isn’t In Congress Already: Hurst has considered running for Congress in Washington’s 8th District against Dave Reichert before. I’m convinced the reason he hasn’t is that he’d have a tough time making it through a primary, as the bulk of the Democratic vote is up in the Bellevue area. Hurst is from the Southern part of the district which is less populated and generally more conservative.
If you could get him through a primary, he matches up perfectly against Reichert-he’s a former cop, so Reichert can’t out law and order him, and he’s also a proven vote getter in swingy South King and the conservative Pierce County.
3. Sean Logan (Pennsylvania)
Who He Is: State Senator for the 45th District, lives in the Pittsburgh suburb of Monroeville
Where He Would Run: PA-18 or its successor
Why Isn’t He In Congress Already: Logan has been repeatedly wooed as a challenger for Tim Murphy, but has declined. Logan doesn’t actually live in the 18th, which is insanely gerrymandered, but lives just over the line in Mike Doyle’s 14th.
Logan may simply be waiting for redistricting, as the map is likely to be drawn by a judge, and there is absolutely no way Murphy, who is ethically on shaky ground, will get anywhere near as Republican a seat as he has now. Even as is, the 18th isn’t a great seat for Murphy; trust me when I say that the PVI here lies by at least 3 points, and that a local Dem could easily win here. Obama and Kerry were both terrible fits for the 18th, and Gore only lost here by 5.
4. Rafael Anchia/Kirk England (Texas)
Who Are They: Texas State House Reps for the 103rd (Anchia) and 106th (England) Districts, England is a former Republican who switched parties
Where Will They Run: Texas’s new “33rd” District
Why Aren’t They In Congress Already: Here’s the situation; prior to the DeLaymander, metro Dallas had two pretty solid Dem seats, the 30th a minority majority district based in Dallas, and the Arlington based 24th, held by Martin Frost which was a “coalition” district. In re-redistricting, the 24th got chopped up among several districts with a lot ending up in a new GOP 24th and Pete Sessions 32nd. This has led to both of these districts starting to fall off a cliff for the GOP because of explosive latino growth. McCain only won 24 with 55% and 32 with a mere 53%, danger territory by Texas standards.
So, unless they want a Pennsylvania style disaster in North Texas, they’re going to have to create some sort of Democratic district to pack all of the Dems together. There’s a fair amount of debate as to how they will do this, with one thought being that it will end up as a Latino plurality Fort Worth based seat, while some others feel that they’ll recreate something like the old 24th and make it a coalition district.
Both Anchia and England are well placed for whatever they create, and I have to think that one of them will almost certainly run for the new seat.
I just want to say that this is a terrifically interesting post. Kudos to you!
Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzaphel. He’s young (43), attractive, and already very accomplished in public service. He served several terms in the Indiana General Assembly, almost beat John Hostettler for Congress in 1996 despite only being like 31 years old, and just won his second term as Mayor.
He’s very popular, a bit more progressively minded than our more conservative blue dog congressmen, and from a very swing area of the state. Southern Indiana often is the deciding region of the state, and if nothing else is necessary for Democrats to do well in.
So keep your eye on him
Alot of interesting infromation. Be cool to watch these people’s futures.
I would also like to throw in someone on the GOP side, also from Washington. Richard DeBolt, GOP state House leader. Has been talked about running for Congress, but I doubt he will with Brian Baird being an entrenched incumbent, unless its a very bad year for the Dems. So maybe in an open seat situation if it comes up sometime in the next few cycles?
5. Leon Stavrinakis (South Carolina)
Who Is He: State House Representative for the 119th District in Charleston.
Where Would He Run: SC-01
Why Isn’t He In Congress Yet: The race in the 1st surprised the heck out of a lot of people, and its now on the national radar. Incumbent Henry Brown is regarded as dead wood, even by local Republicans. If a liberal lesbian can get within 5 points of Brown, a conservative Democrat like Stavrinakis could win the seat outright. He represents a very conservative district won in a special election and fits the first like like a glove.
6a. Virg Bernero (Michigan)
Who Is He: Mayor of Lansing
Where Would He Run: MI-08 or successor district
Why Isn’t He In Congress Yet: Like Sean Logan, Bernero is likely waiting for redistricting, assuming he wants to be in Congress. At worst, a judge draws the lines, and Mike Rogers ends up in a much tougher 8th than the one Thad McCotter drew for him.
6b. Andy Dillon (Michigan)
Who Is He: State Rep for Michigan’s 17th House District, current Speaker of the Michigan House
Where Would He Run: MI-11 or successor district
Why Isn’t He In Congress Yet: Dillon is currently pursuing the Governor’s race, where I’ll bet he loses to Lt. Gov Cherry. That’s sad because he’d be perfect against Thad…who’s bad (sorry, couldn’t resist). McCotter’s never ran very far ahead of the top of the ticket in ’04 and ’06; he took just 51 percent of the vote against a third tier challenger in 2008. Furthermore, the national GOP’s hardline stance against the auto bailouts can’t have helped them here.
Fun topic! We don’t have much of a bench in Kansas, but there are a few….
Mike Slattery – Son of a former KS Congressman won a state house seat in Johnson County in 2008, knocking off a Republican incumbent…at the tender age of 27. May bide his time until Dennis Moore (KS-03) retires, but may go for the state Senate in the meantime, especially after reapportionment adds a bunch of seats to Johnson County, the fast-growing Kansas City suburbs.
Dennis McKinney – Appointed State Treasurer by former Gov. Sebelius in 2008 after Lynn Jenkins won a seat in Congress. Running for the office in his own right in 2010. Served 9 terms in House and former KS House minority leader. Hails from conservative-ish Greensburg (yes, the one the tornado destroyed and Leonardo DiCaprio did a documentary about it).
Steve Six – Appointed Attorney General by former Gov. Sebelius after the incumbent resigned over a sex scandal. Running for the office in his own right in 2010. Former judge.
Raj “Kumar” Goyle – Two-term Indian-American state rep. from a swingy Wichita district now running for a heavily Republican Congressional seat being vacated by Todd Tiahrt (…and yes, Kumar is his real middle name). Harvard-educated…he’s like a masculine, un-Kenneth-the-Page-y Bobby Jindal.
I see a lot of great names out there, but they all seem to be of the masculine variety. How about some of our rising female stars?
or for that matter England, I would stake out the seat by running against Pete Sessions in 2010.
Win and the new seat is yours, but even a loss would mean that you have the advantage in the Dem primary due to name recognition.
Rob Teilhet a state representative from the 40th district in Marietta who is running for Attorney General is a great up and comer who if elected as AG would be an excellent GOV or Senate candidate down the road (maybe Saxby’s seat in 2014).
Also, Doug McKillip a state representative from the 115th district in Athens would be a great candidate for a variety of offices in a few years (just elected in 2006) like AG in 2014 if Teilhet wins and runs for Senate or maybe even for whatever Congressional district Athens is thrown into in 2012.
It’s always good to keep tabs on rising stars, as the past election showed ;-).
I’m curious to see who Ohio’s rising stars are. I can’t speak for other parts of the state, but the political skies in the Mahoning Valley are particularly dark. Our two best pols, Tim Ryan and John Boccieri, have already reached the national stage, leaving us with a bunch of kooks, criminals, and also-rans (some of which are all three). The only potential star I see is Mayor Anthony Williams. So far, I like what I see in him, and he’s a damn sight better than his predecessor George McKelvey (Y’town’s answer to Zell Miller).
Quick question, with Grassley starting to say some pretty crazy things in a state Obama carried by 10 points, who would be the up and comer that you would pick to challenge him (assuming Bruce Braley doesn’t run)?
Personally, I think at the very least, it would be a beneficial exercise for whoever did it as a name building exercise and might have the effect of jerking Grassley back to reality. At best, it could a)get Grassley to retire or b)become one of those elections where Grassley has overstayed his welcome as a US Senator and loses.