Anzalone Liszt for Dan Seals (8/3-6, likely primary voters):
Dan Seals (D): 63
Julie Hamos (D): 8
Elliot Richardson (D): 2
Undecided: 27
(MoE: ±4.9%)
At first glance, those numbers might seem a bit laughable, but don’t forget: Seals put out some pretty similar internal polls last cycle, including one in November 2007 that showed him leading the hapless Jay Footlik by 58-6. Seals eventually won that primary with 81% of the vote despite Footlik raising some decent pie.
The Math is pretty formidable for Seals here — he posts an 83% name recognition score, and a 70-13 favorable/unfavorable spread. In short, despite losing two general elections in a row, Democratic voters appear to like Seals pretty well. Hamos, a state representative who lives in the nearby 9th District, is only known to 18% of voters, so she has some room to grow, but she’d have to raise some seriously huge scrilla to wash out Seals’ strong and early advantage.
The full, Resistance Is Futile-themed polling memo is available below the fold.
He was the nominee twice already, and got generally good reviews as a candidate, despite being unable to take out Kirk.
Funny how those aren’t in the public memo. . .
I find it hard to believe that Seals would have that high a favorability rating given that he has never served in congress. I getting sick of Seals, I looked at his tv ads and they really weren’t that good at all. I really want him to just GO AWAY. I liked Michael Bond much better, too bad hes gone and we have to deal with Seals again. If Seals manages to buy his way through the primary and loose again, I think that democrats should stop supporting him.
If Seals COULD NOT win against Mark Kirk even though he had the support of the DCCC and Obama winning the district by a huge margin, it’s clear he’s unelectable.
I’d still prefer Hamos. More women need to be in Congress! Either way we get a liberal Democrat (now that Bond is out).
candidates, Seals’ lead is nearly cut in half (from +55% to +30%). Anzalone Liszt must have thought it was a plus to release this info, but it could be interpreted otherwise.
Three-term Highland Park City Councilman Jim Kirsch is also contemplating a bid for the Illinois 10 seat. It appears the poll only dealt with declared candidates-Seals, Hamos and Richardson-and excluded both Kirsch and state Sen. Terry Link, who has expressed an interest.
Kirsch, who was raised in the district and has long lived there with his family, chairs Highland Park’s finance committee and knows how to balance a budget without raising taxes. In addition to serving on the city council, he runs Professional Diversity Network finding jobs for people with diverse backgrounds.
Balancing budgets and creating jobs seems like an outstanding mix in this economy. Kirsch would be a far better representative in Congress than Seals or Hamos and he should get in the race. No wonder Seals excluded Jim and Terry from the poll.
that CNN projects him with more votes than Mark Kirk!
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…
Too bad he did get declared the winner though. Looks like some Cook County ballot counting going on. I think 3rd time may not be the charm … we need a better candidate in this district.
Anzalone’s always loves his own polling btw
He took on a pretty popular, moderate incumbent in a district that historically was pretty favorable to those types of Republicans. Kirk received 69% of the vote in 2002 and 64% in 2004. This was never an easy win for us, but Seals made it close, twice.
Seals will easily beat anyone not named Kirk in this district.
Not just D primary voters?
ID-01: Why did Larry Grant not defeat Bill Sali in 2006? If Grant had been the nominee last year, would he have defeated Sali? (And what about Rand Lewis, since I’m asking anyway?)
Despite my liking talking about ID-01, I’m not actually all that knowledge about it, which is why I’m asking.
But I’m wondering what Larry Grant can tell us about people like Dan Seals, Darcy Burner, and Elwyn Tinklenberg.
(BTW, anyone know what Grant and LaRocco are up to these days?)
Hamos wanted to run for AG. Then she was undecided, considering Lt. Governor.
When IL-10 came open she got interested in this seat.
I’m a little concerned about Seals losing twice, but Kirk’s allies in the Jewish community did a good job peeling away votes on the issue of Israel with partial quotes and viral emails.
I just want everyone to know that the person I was referring yesterday actually worked for Seals in 2006 not 2008. In 2006, the time she was at UChicago transferred to Georgetown and is no longer associated with the Seals campaign.