That the Northeast has been trending blue in recent cycles is self evidently true. Will it continue in 2010?
Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.
(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)
Whilst current polls don’t look too good for incumbent Democrats across the Northeast I believe that we have hit the bottom. Now that Health Care reform is done I believe that the polls will rebound for Democrats, particularly in the Northeast.
Thus it is my contention that despite the current challenging environment the Northeast will continue its long term move towards the Democratic Party, despite a sure to be spiteful debate on cap and trade and despite an economic outlook that is improving in fits and starts.
The US Census defines the Northeast region as including 9 states as follows: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. And aggregating across all 9 states the lay of the land looks like this:
States that voted for Obama: 9/9
Governors: 5/9
US Senators: 15/18 (Counting Sanders and Leiberman as Dems)
House Districts: 69/83
State Senates: 8/9
State Houses: 9/9
Where I think a race is a safe Democratic hold I won’t be saying anything about it.
Going state by state then:
Connecticut
Gubernatorial – With GOP Gov Jodi Rell not running again it is very likely to be a Dem pickup.
US Senate – Both Dems. If Dodd runs he may lose for any other Dem it is a safe hold.
US House – All Dem, all Safe (including Himes in the 4th.)
State Senate – 24D/12R – Safe
State House – 114D/37R – Safe
Maine
Gubernatorial – Whilst it seems that half of Maine is running for the open Gubernatorial mansion I believe that the Democratic nature of the state will lead to a Democratic retention.
US Senate – Both Repubs! Not on ballot in 2010
US House – All Dem, all Safe
State Senate – 20D/15R – Safe (Margin is growing).
State House – 95D/55R – Safe
Massachusetts –
Gubernatorial – Whilst Deval Patrick really hasn’t set the world on fire the 2nd tier nature of his potential opponents should see him safely re-elected.
US Senate – Both Dems (at least after the upcoming special election.)
US House – All Dem, all Safe
State Senate – 35D/5R – Safe
State House – 144D/16R – Safe
New Hampshire
Gubernatorial – Safe Dem
US Senate – definitely a race to watch. I will be stunned if Hodes loses here. Hodes has almost $1 million dollars COH and there is a divisive GOP primary in the offing also. New Hampshire, whilst less Blue than almost all of the other states in the North East, is not going to elect a Republican as US Senator in 2010.
US House –
NH-01 – There has been a lot of focus on both of the New Hampshire congressional races. I don’t get it to be honest – Shea Porter will win, not by much but she will win.
NH-02 – Again a lot of focus here including a lot of hand wringing about how vulnerable it is to switch. Not gonna happen folks. Gore, Kerry and Obama all won this district – Obama by 13 points – and we have a quality field of candidates running AND a divisive GOP Primary. Lead Dem Ann McLane Kuster has 250K COH as at the end of September.
State Senate – 14/10 – No change in 2008 really locks in our 2006 gains. If this one flips it will be a bad night for us.
State House – 223D/176R – Safe
New Jersey
Gubernatorial – Repub – Not on ballot in 2010
US Senate – Both Dems
US House –
NJ-02 – If State Senator Jeff Van Drew finally steps up and runs this race becomes very competitive. Hopefully he won’t wait until 2012. If State Sen Jim Whelan runs it could also get competitive in this district that Obama won 54/45 and that Bush won by less than 1% in 2004.
NJ-03 – Adler is safe.
NJ-04 – Gore carried this district and Obama lost 47/52 so a good candidate here is a must to get it on the radar instead of the second tier candidates we have run thus far.
NJ-05 – Unlikely to be on the radar in 2010.
NJ-07 – This district is winnable particularly with a freshman GOP incumbent. Obama carried it 51/48 also. Surprising then that there is no declared Dem candidate yet. Potentially a top tier race that will probably be a big miss for the DCCC.
NJ-11 – The safest GOP district in NJ and a rarity in the Northeast, (outside Pennsylvania,) a generically safe GOP district. Short of a fantastic candidate this one won’t be on the radar.
State Senate – Up in 2011
State House – Up in 2011
New York
Gubernatorial – Safe for Cuomo.
US Senate – Gillibrand will get over the line against 3rd tier opponents and Schumer is Safe too.
US House –
NY-03 – Unless Suozzi or another top tier candidate emerges then this will be a big miss for the DCCC.
NY-13 – McMahon is safe.
NY-20 – Murphy will prevail – bet on it. He had almost 1 Mill COH at the end of September!
NY-23 – One of two really competitive races in Dem held districts in NY. I think Owens will prevail, especially against Hoffman.
NY-24 – After a scare in 2008 Arcuri will be safe.
NY-25 – Maffei is safe.
NY-26 – Unless a good candidate pops up this will be a big miss for the DCCC.
NY-29 – Massa has his work cut out for him – that’s for sure. But for me Massa by a nose. Why? When was the last time the NY GOP won a District off us? Massa’s 500K COH as at end of September will help too.
State Senate – 32D/30R – A chamber to watch – big time. I expect us to hang onto or increase our majority.
State House – 109D/41R – Safe
Pennsylvania
Gubernatorial – A real worry this one could flip.
US Senate – 2 Dems – Whoever emerges from the Dem primary will beat Toomey. The good folk of Pennsylvania wouldn’t be crazy enough to sent Toomey to the US Senate would they?
US House –
PA-03 – Dahlkemper will have her work cut out to win this District that Obama JUST lost. Race to watch.
PA-04 – Altmire will be safe.
PA-05 – This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans.
PA-06 – Generic Dem beats generic Rep – Period. Doug Pike’s massive COH advantage (largely self funded) of 750K as at end of September should help him pull this one out.
PA-07 – Not quite sure why so many people are predicting this will flip. Top tier candidates for both parties makes for a tough race but this district was won by Gore, Kerry and Obama. Add in a competitive GOP Primary and it is Dem for me.
PA-09 – One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans. This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. Yep just like PA-05.
PA-11 – Against Lou Barletta Kanjorski will be fine. Tough part of Pennsylvania for Democrats though.
PA-12 – Murtha is vulnerable but i expect him to survive (just).
PA-15 – Like PA-06 Obama carried every county in this one and yep it is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Dem Callahan is a top tier challenger and is fundraising like one (325K COH as at end of Spetember).
PA-16 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th and 9th unlikely to be a priority.
PA-18 – In theory could be vaguely competitive in 2010 (Bush only got 54% here in 2004) but unlikely given the low hanging fruit in the 6th and 15th.
PA-19 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th, 6th and 16th unlikely to be a priority in 2010, unless Todd Platts lands the Government job he is chasing. Even then unlikely to be competitive.
State Senate – 20D/30R – Safe GOP
State House – 104D/99R – Definitely a chamber to watch.
Rhode Island
Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Don Carcieri is term limited so either a Dem or former Repub Sen now Indy Lincoln Chaffee will be elected. The GOP bench here is terrible.
US Senate – Both Dems
US House – All Dem, all Safe
State Senate – 35D/5R Safe
State House – 69D/6R Safe
Vermont
Gubernatorial – With GOP Gov Douglas not running the GOP have scored their best possible candidate in Lt Gov Brian Dubie; who will lose to a Dem (unless the Progressive Party act as a spoiler).
US Senate – Both Dems
US House – All Dem, all Safe
State Senate – 28D/7R Safe
State House – 95D/48R Safe
So with 10 months until election day it is off to the races!
What do you think?
I agree that Hodes will win for Senator in NH and the Dems will retain both NH House seats. CSP is always perceived as more vulnerable than she is because she is a somewhat unorthodox candidate, but I think she has built up the reputation of being hard-working, honest and authentic which can count for more than just COH figures (though it is important to have some COH).
I think Cahill is for real, although I don’t see Baker/Mihos winning of course.
see the 12/28 and 12/01 daily digests. Finger to the wind guess, likely D.
NJ-04 has a very safe Republican incumbent. Nothing will put it on the radar except a retirement. Without a retirement it’s the safest Republican district in NJ even though it doesn’t have the strongest R PVI.
NJ-02 won’t be competitive in 2010 regardless of who we run. LoBiondo is too entrenched. It would have been close if we had a strong Democratic candidate (either Van Drew or Whelan) in 2006. This district would lean Democrat if it were open.
NJ-07 is our best chance for a pickup in NJ in 2010. If Linda Stender were to run again I would give her a 25% of winning. She ran a terrible campaign in 2008 (focusing on abortion) but hopefully some Obama/Lance voters are having second thoughts after seeing the behavior of current Congressional Republicans. Not running a strong candidate in 2010, and thereby letting Lance become an entrenched incumbent without a fight, would be a huge wasted opportunity.
I agree with the rest of your analysis, except PA-16, it’s not as safe as you claim it is. I know I should stop saying “in 2010” because it is 2010, but you know what I mean.
The Good Folks of Pennsylvania did give Santorum a good two senate terms.
So while I don’t think its likely(i.e the blue trending of Pennsylvania)it still is a possibility (one that I do dread)
Despite huge cash and institutional advantages, Adler only won 52-48, around the same as Obama. And given that he voted against healthcare, I can’t see liberals being motivated to turn out for him.
I could see him losing on a much reduced turnout, and possibly a decent Green candidacy.
Your prediction is that the Democrats win every single competitive race in the Northeast? Yeah ok.
I think these 3 House races are worth our effort, even though they are longshots:
NJ-07, NY-26, PA-16.
NJ-07 and NY-26 were open seats in 2008 and they were supposed to be top tier races but the Democrats lost big. Hopefully in 2010 the voters will reconsider after seeing the Republican Congressman do nothing but obstruct. PA-16 is quickly changing in our direction and Democrats should go for it before it gets redistricted.
Maine Senate – Don’t be too quick to classify it as safe. After the 2006 elections, Dems only had a 18-17 majority (actually losing a seat). They did better in 2008, but it would only take 3 seats for Republicans to take control.
NH Legislature – I wouldn’t classify it as safe; Dems have the advantage of running downticket from Lynch again, but they were swept into power based on a wild swing in both houses. It could just as easily swing back, especially given the historically-GOP nature of the state.
NH-01 – I think CSP is favored; Guinta is turning out to be a lame candidate.
NH-02 – Tossup. This is a bad environment for open seats, and Kuster hasn’t raised that much money. Bass will be able to catch up to her quickly.
New Jersey Congressional seats – I don’t expect any of these except for NJ-03 to be competitive. Adler’s got his work cut out for him getting voters to the polls. I would say it’s Lean Dem, but not much more than that.
New York Congressional seats:
The two Rheld districts aren’t going to be competitive.NY01 is around Lean Dem; Altschuler has a ton of cash and it’s a swing district (as I said above).NY19 is also Lean Dem; Hall needs to up his fundraising. Hayworth is a more serious contender than Ball, in my opinion.NY20 is becoming surprisingly safe for Murphy; Republicans still don’t have a candidate.NY23 is favoring Owens; rematches don’t tend to go well and Owens will likely benefit from Cuomo/Schumer coattails.NY24 is endangered, given Arcuri’s underperformance, but I don’t think he has an opponent yet, so he’s still lucking out.NY29 I’d say is a tossup. It’s a McCain district, and Massa actually has a serious challenger.Pennsylvania House – I expect this one to flip if the Republicans win the governor’s mansion by a large margin.
Pennsylvania House races:
PA06 – If Generic D beat Generic R, then Gerlach wouldn’t be in office. Pike is not turning out to be a great candidate, and in this environment, I can see Republicans holding the district. It’s still a tossup, of course.PA11 – This is a tossup at best. Kanjo barely won despite favorable conditions and Obama coattails in 2008.PA12 – Murtha’s not going anywhere as long as his opponent is the BMW Marketing sap William Russell again. I expect Republicans to axe his district in redistricting, though.PA15 – One of the few good opportunities to defeat an incumbent Republican. Dent has been lucky to face second-tier candidates up to this point, but not this time.