NJ-04 – Page 2 – Swing State Project

14 GOP House Reps in the Northeast – How many after November?

The Northeast (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island & Vermont) has been sharply trending towards the Democratic party for some years now. Increasingly at a State and Federal level Republicans are finding it harder to get elected in the Northeast, be they conservatives or moderates, particularly in statewide races. And this years election seems certain to thin out their ranks even further.

We now have 7/9 Governors, 14/18 Senators and 51/65 House Districts!

Below the line for a look at the 14 GOP held House Races in the Northeast in 2008.

Well now 14 members of that most endangered of species the Northeast House Republican. And can you believe 5 open races in more or less Democrat friendly districts – WOW!

And so on with the show:

CT-04 – D+5 – Shays

It is appropriate that the first race we look at is one of the most competitive, CT-04, pitting Chris Shays against our guy Jim Himes. This one will be a barnburner which makes it curious that I can’t find any polling of the district. Located in the Southwest part of the state it overlaps the New York media market and many people who live in the 4th commute to NYC for work.

As the only GOP survivor in New England Shays seems to be popular but as the Iraq war becomes increasingly unpopular Shays’ fervent support for the war and the President himself makes this one race to watch. Both candidates are cashed up and either could win.

CT-04 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.

DE-AL – D+7 – Castle

GOP incumbent Mike Castle is considered safe and I see no reason to not beileve that. Whilst Dem Karen Hartley-Nagle will run a solid campaign this district is unlikely to flip this time around. Of more interest to me is whether Castle will switch parties after the election or retire in 2010 (He had a stroke in 2006). Or if Lt Gov John Carney or Attorney General Beau Biden have a crack Castle may be vulnerable if he runs again in 2010.

DE-AL is another of the 8 districts that Kerry carried in 2004 occupied by a House Republican and in fact this is the district with the highest Kerry vote – 57% – occupied by a Republican.

NJ-02 – D+4.0 – LoBiondo

LoBiondo doged a bullet when Democratic State Senator Jeff Van Drew opted not to run against him in this district that Bush won by less than 1% and that is occupied by 2 Democratic State Senators.

Our candidate David Kurkowski will have a real slog to get this race on the radar with the open races in the 3rd and 7th. Look for Van Drew to run and win in 2010.

NJ-03 – D+3.3 – OPEN

The first of our open races this one sees Democratic State Senator John Adler running against Chris Myers. Bush won this district 51-49 and Adler has a massive COH advantage – 1.46M to 155K. Polling indicates a tight race but I expect Adler to win comfortably as he is well known through the district and genuinely popular.

NJ-04 – R+0.9 – Smith

This central Jersey district was won by Bush in 2004 56 to 44 but was won by Gore in 2000 50 to 46. With a plethora of other competitive races around this one has not been on the radar and probably won’t be. Josh Zeitz is to be applauded for having a go but 2008 probably won’t be his year. 2010 maybe?

NJ-05 – R+4 – Garrett

A district that shouldn’t be on the radar is so largely because our guy Dennis Shulman is a blind rabbi who has been getting a lot of media attention. Won by Bush in 2004 57-43 this is one of two districts in New Jersey that are considered generically safe for Repubs. If Shulman can pull it off then expect a lot of house districts to be picked up by us on election day. Shulman is down 3 to 1 in COH which is ok but he really needs to step up the fundraising.

NJ-07 – R+1 – OPEN

Another open race this one pits 2006 candidate Democrat Linda Stender against State Senator Leonard Lance. Michael Hsing, a conservative republican is also running as an independent which will take votes from Lance. Both camps have released polls that show their candidate is winning. Despite the fact that Bush won this district 53-47 in 2004 I expect Stender to win at her second time at bat as she only lost by about 1000 votes in 2006. Stender has a massive COH advantage – 1.2M-88K btw and that can only help!

NJ-11 – R+6 – Frelinghuysen

This district that Bush won 58-42 in 2004 is the safest GOP in New Jersey and unlikely to flip. Our guy, 2006 candidate Tom Wyka, is putting in a valiant effort but will most likely fall short. This district is a rarity in the Northeast, a safe GOP district.

NY-03 – D+2.1 – King

This Long Island based district is not on the radar for 2008. Democrat Graham Long hasn’t set the world on fire and won’t with all of the oxygen being sucked up by the 13th. This race may have been competitive if 2006 candidate Dave Mejias had run again be he is running for the State Senate instead 🙁 Look for Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi or Mejias to run in 2010. King has said that he will running in the gubernatorial race in 2010 so we should pick this one up then.

NY-13 – D+1 – OPEN

No race in the country has been more of a soap opera than NY-13. I will spare you the details and say simply this. Democratic candidate Michael McMahon will win and win big over a divided dispirited Republican party and their 3rd tier candidate. McMahon is even endorsed by GOP powerbroker Guy Molinari. And he lives on Staten Island a vital prerequisite in this district unlike his republican opponent. Chalk this one up as a win for team blue.

NY-23 – R+0.2 – McHugh

John McHugh is a safe bet for re-election here over a low profile candidate, Mile Oot. The attenton in upstate New York will all be focused on the 25th, 26th and 29th. Sheesh even the unions endorse McHugh who seems genuinely popular. He was rumoured to be retiring in 2008 and may do so in 2010. Either way expect a competitive race here in 2010 not 2008.

NY-25 – D+3 – OPEN

Democrat Dan Maffei never stopped running since 2006 and is considered very likely to win this open seat over Republican Dale Sweetland. He has about $1M COH and of course upstate New York is rapidly bluing. The one poll I have seen had Maffei only a point in front but that was back in April. I think that the NRCC has given up here and with good reason, Dan’s gonna win. NY-25 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.

NY-26 – R+3 – OPEN

There was a huge shock here when Democrat Kryzan won a bloody primary over DCCC preferred Jon Powers. Nonetheless Kryzan came out reasonably clean and may well pull it off in a district where Bush won 55-43 in 2004. Kryzan needs to step up her fundraising a lot but again the DCCC has weighed with advertising expenditure. When we see some polling we will get a better sense of how this one is playing but this district is still very much in play as Gopper Chris Lee hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. Watch this space.

NY-29 – R+5 – Kuhl

Democratic 2006 candidate Eric Massa is back for a rematch in this upstate district that is the most GOP friendly district in New York. Bush won 56-42 in 2004. Don’t discount Massa though as incumbent Randy “shotgun” Kuhl is certainly vulnerable (and repellant). Haven’t seen any public polling here but the candidates are basically at parity in terms of COH and the DCCC is stumping up for advertising big time. Expect a close race.

So whilst the Northeast won’t provide much excitement at the Presidential level this year the House races (and Senate BTW) will be all the fun of the fair. I think that we will probably win between 4 and 7 of these races further decimating an already shredded GOP. The Northeast is well on the way to becoming a one party region and this year will see further shifts in that direction.

NJ-04: Smith Rejected Equal Work for Equal Pay-Lilly Ledbetter

Cross-posted at Blue Jersey.

Chris Smith likes to say that he’s an independent voice who doesn’t vote along party lines. Smith also claims to be pro-worker, pro-union, and pro-woman. Well, here’s one vote that demonstrates that he is none of those things.

Smith, along with 99% of House Republicans, voted against the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2007. The bill passed the House 225-199, as virtually all Democrats voted in favor of it, but it was filibustered by George Bush and Chris Smith’s allies in the Senate. [HR 2831, Vote #768, 7/31/07] Smith, Christopher (NJ/R) N

Lilly Ledbetter suffered wage and gender discrimination at her job but could not sue because the existing law is outdated and poorly written. The Lilly Ledbetter Act that Chris Smith voted against would ensure that workers who face wage discrimination, the majority of whom are women, are able to protect their right to equal work for equal pay. It is a travesty that women still earn only 77 cents for every dollar that men earn on the job. Equal pay for equal work is not only an issue of fundamental fairness, it’s an absolute necessity if we want to reward hard work and encourage personal responsibility. Apparently, Chris Smith doesn’t share those American values.

“In this time of exploding prices for gas and basic necessities, job losses, and the collapse in the value of our homes, it is unconscionable to think that our government would favor corporations who knowingly discriminate against women or any employee by paying some workers less than others for doing the same work. Yet that is exactly what Chris Smith did with this vote.” said Josh Zeitz campaign manager Steve D’Amico.

The campaign is entering a critical phase and we need your support. You can contribute at Josh’s ActBlue page. If you’d like to volunteer, please contact ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com. Please visit Josh’s website to learn more about why we need to elect Josh to Congress.

NJ-04: Zeitz upgraded by DCCC-“Race to Watch”

Note: Kudos to Swing State who put Josh on their ‘Races to Watch’ list months ago!

NJ-04 BOMBSHELL: Smith’s Segregationism & Homophobia EXPOSED

Cross-posted at Blue Jersey.

Today, a bombshell article in The New Republic (TNR) exposed what many of us thought to be true?that Chris Smith’s misguided priorities go far deeper than his twenty-two attempts to ban the common, everyday birth control pill.

Thanks to new investigative reporting by TNR’s James Kirchick, we now know that Chris Smith is a founding member of the radical right. A reporter at TNR, Kirchick is the author of a highly-regarded article on Ron Paul’s ties to segregationists; that article changed the national narrative on Paul earlier this year.

Kirchick’s new article reveals that Chris Smith has longstanding ties to religious-right hate groups; that he sat on the board of advisers of a pro-racial segregation organization in the 1980s; that he authored legislation that would bar gays and lesbians from working openly as nurses, doctors, first responders, federal employees or federal contractors; and that he played a role in a vicious disinformation campaign about HIV/AIDS that demonized gays and lesbians as “serial killers.” The article also reveals that Smith concealed campaign contributions from at least two hard-line, pro-segregation groups.

The New Republic only scratched surface of Smith’s bigotry. Following up on TNR’s reporting, this morning, the Zeitz campaign discovered Chris Smith not only worked with segregationists; he voted with them. In 1981, Chris Smith voted to restore non-profit status to segregated private schools [HR 4121, 7/30/81] that were created as a mechanism for white Southerners to avoid the full implications of the Supreme Court’s decision in Brown v. Board of Education.

The Zeitz for Congress campaign also obtained a copy of Chris Smith’s early college writings. In an article dated 1973, Smith accused gays and lesbians of being in league with “the Anti-Christ”:

In Smith’s words:

“We can live in harmony with His [God’s] spiritual laws and be like the man, as Christ said, who built on an undestructable [sic] rock, or we can live in disharmony with the Anti-Christ; the devil, not the laughable, fiery and character with horns, but the evil one often spoken of by Jesus and he like the man who built his life on sand which eroded and eventually fell. God wants us happy; His laws are for our welfare, our protection, not Sin!”

Chris Smith’s bigotry goes beyond his early career. In the 1990s, Smith introduced legislation that would force any company or public entity that receives federal funds to fire openly gay employees. The legislation would deny gays and lesbians the right to work as teachers, doctors, nurses, first responders, federal contractors, or state and federal workers. It might even deny basic rights like student loans to gay college students.

What we’ve learned today:

Chris Smith is a founding member of the Religious Right, having sat on the advisory board of the Christian Voice. The Christian Voice strongly supported racially segregated private schools in the South and worked closely with Jerry Falwell.

Chris Smith voted to support segregation by allowing all-white private schools (which were created after forced-desegregation) to remain segregated.

Chris Smith failed to abide by FEC rules and report contributions from openly racist, misogynistic, and homophobic groups on the radical right.

Chris Smith introduced legislation in the 1990s to mandate that the government (or any recipients of federal funds, like local school district, fire departments, police departments and federal contractors) fire any openly gay employees. Openly gay individuals would have been barred from any receipt of federal funds such as school loans, food stamps or unemployment benefits.

“Chris Smith is an extremist,” said Steven D’Amico, Zeitz for Congress campaign manager. “There is nothing moderate about racial segregation. There is nothing moderate about denying jobs and education to millions of gay Americans. There is nothing moderate about taking away the right to use common, everyday birth control. These are unacceptable positions that are out of step with basic human decency.”

I’m asking you to do a couple of things here. Please make a contribution. Also, if you’re in or near the district, please contact ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com to volunteer.

We can win this race, and we need to do it in order to show New Jersey and the country that this kind of extremism is immoral and unacceptable, and voters will hold such extremists accountable.

Thanks so much.

NJ-04: Smith Opposed Country of Origin Labeling on Meat Products

Cross-posted at Blue Jersey.

Josh Zeitz is the Democratic nominee in New Jersey’s Fourth Congressional district. He is running against Republican Chris Smith, who has backed George Bush’s economic and foreign policies and who serves as the chair of the anti-choice caucus in the House.

Chris Smith says that he wants to run on his record in Congress. Unfortunately, there are parts of his record that voters may find less than appealing. We are going to tell voters about some things Chris Smith doesn’t want you to know about his record, like his vote against giving consumers all the information they need to make the right choices when buying food.

Salmonella in our vegetables is only the latest consumer safety crisis families have faced in recent years. From problems with drugs like Vioxx, Vytorin, and Avandia to poison in lead paint used in our children’s toys and toxic substances in our toothpaste, our consumer safety protections have failed us. Consumer groups have been pushing for years to require all food imports to contain Country of Origin Labeling (COOL). One would think this is a fairly simple concept on which people in both parties could agree.

Incredibly, in 2005, Smith Opposed Country of Origin Labeling on Meat Products. The vote blocked the government from requiring labels that would tell shoppers from what country their meat comes. Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) of food benefits American consumers and farmers. COOL provides U.S. raised products with a competitive advantage over foreign products because U.S. consumers, if offered a clear choice, choose fresh foods of domestic origin over foods of foreign origin.

Origin information is essential to protecting consumers whenever specific health and safety problems arise that may be linked to imported foods. Risks include diseases like mad cow disease in Canada and Europe.

(Associated Press, 6/8/05; Americans for Country of Origin Labeling, “Reasons for Labeling,” (link) ; CRS Report for Congress, “Country-of-Origin Labeling for Foods: Current Law and Proposed Changes,” 03/27/01; (link)) Smith, Christopher (NJ/R) Y 2005 231 HR 2744 Failed 187-240

“Why did Chris Smith vote against protecting our food supply by requiring the labeling foreign food products clearly for consumers. Americans who prefer to buy American should be given that option, and Chris Smith’s opposition to this measure is senseless,” said Josh Zeitz Campaign Manager Steve D’Amico.

NJ-04: Zeitz Challenges Smith to 4 Debates

Cross-posted at Blue Jersey.

Josh Zeitz, the Democratic nominee for Congress in New Jersey’s 4th Congressional district, today challenged Rep. Chris Smith to four public debates.

In honor of the 150th anniversary of the historic Lincoln-Douglas debates, Zeitz asked Smith to join him at one public debate in each of the fourth district’s counties: Burlington, Mercer, Monmouth and Ocean. During their campaign for the U.S. Senate from Illinois, Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas debated in each of Illinois’s nine congressional districts.

As a sign of respect, Zeitz mailed a personal debate invitation to Smith’s home, along with a copy of a book on the Lincoln-Douglas debates.

Here’s what Josh had to say:

“The rising cost of food, gas, health care, and education is hurting many working families,” wrote Zeitz. “People have a right to know how each of us proposes to address these grave problems, and they have a right to challenge us in a public forum.”

“I can think of no better way for us to honor the anniversary of the Lincoln-Douglas debates than by providing the residents of New Jersey’s Fourth Congressional District a similar opportunity to see their candidates engage in a vigorous but respectful exchange of ideas.”

“While neither of us would presume to walk in the footsteps of these two giants, let’s agree to honor their memory — and to honor our neighbors in Central Jersey – by debating in Ocean, Monmouth, Burlington, and Mercer Counties.”

If any of you, in particular those from the Garden State, have specific things you’d like to suggest Josh focus on in the debate, feel free to email ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com and I’ll pass them along. No guarantees of course, but Josh and the campaign want to hear your thoughts.

NJ-04: Smith Voted Against Ethics Reform

Cross-posted at Blue Jersey.

In 2006, Chris Smith voted against comprehensive ethics reform. The legislation would have banned travel on corporate jets, prohibit lobbyist gifts, and slow the revolving door between Capitol Hill and K Street. It would also require disclosure of earmarks so that special interest provisions receive public scrutiny. The measure applied to all special interest earmarks including the Alaska Bridge to Nowhere. It would force Members of Congress disclose if they had a financial interest in the earmark. (Vote 4448, 2006. Leadership Document, “Democrats Fight To Clean Up Culture Of Corruption; Republicans Fail To Change Washington,” 9/14/06)

“Voters deserve to know why Chris Smith voted against banning corrupt lobbying practices and hidden earmarks,” said Josh Zeitz campaign manager, Steve D’Amico.

If you’d like to volunteer, please contact ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com. Please visit Josh’s website to learn more about why we need to elect Josh to Congress.

NJ-04: Smith Denied Bankruptcy Protection to Troops

Cross-posted at Blue Jersey.

Josh Zeitz is the Democratic nominee in New Jersey’s Fourth Congressional district. He is running against Republican Chris Smith, who has backed George Bush’s ecnonomic and foreign policies and who serves as the chair of the anti-choice caucus in the House.

Chris Smith says that he wants to run on his record in Congress. Unfortunately, there are parts of his record that voters may find less than appealing, namely his vote to deny our troops bankruptcy protection.

More after the jump.

In 2004 and 2005 Smith voted against protecting our servicemen and servicewomen from bankruptcy. In 2005, George Bush signed into law harsher bankruptcy rules for American facing heavy levels of debt. Chris Smith voted against measures against extending special bankruptcy protections to deployed servicemen and servicewomen. (Vote # 107 2005, Vote #9 2004)

This year, roughly half of New Jersey?s National Guard is being actively deployed to Iraq. According to recent data, over forty percent of Guardsman and Reservists lose income when they leave their civilian jobs for active duty. Many reservists left thinking they would be deployed for 6 months and have ended up staying for a year or even longer and may be shipped out again. Additionally, many military families face difficult financial challenges. Over 20% of military families report having received WIC aid or food stamps from the government. (Los Angles Times 5/16/05; Washington Post/Kaiser Foundation Military Families Survey March 2004)

Instead of offering reasonable protections to members of the military, Chris Smith voted to raise his salary by $32,600 since 1999. (CRS: Salaries of Members of Congress Updated January 8, 2008; 1999 Vote #300; 2000 Vote #419; 2001 House Vote #267; 2002 House Vote #322; 2003 House Vote #463; 2004 House Vote #451; 2005 House Vote #327; 2006 vote #261; 2007 Vote #580)

“While Chris Smith was busy raising his own salary he was also denying bankruptcy protection to servicemen and servicewomen who are taking a pay cut to fight for their country. They deserve an explanation,” said Josh Zeitz campaign manager Steve D?Amico.

If you’d like to volunteer, please contact ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com. Please visit Josh’s website to learn more about what he stands for.

NJ-04: The Bush-Smith Economy

Cross posted at Blue Jersey.

American families are hurting because our economy is hurting. Just in the past six months, we’ve seen almost half a million American jobs disappear. To take a longer view, George W. Bush’s administration has seen the weakest job growth, less than half of one percent per year, of any President since Herbert Hoover. The Bush-Smith record on jobs is abysmal. By contrast, under Bill Clinton jobs grew at five times that rate (2.5% average growth per year). And no one can accuse Chris Smith of having supported Bill Clinton.

More after the jump.

Job losses are one problem, and inflation is another. During the past twelve months, wages have risen by 2.8%. While that sounds good, inflation has jumped 4%, which means that the average person who has actually had a job has had his or her salary cut by more than 1% over the past year. It’s worth mentioning that the average American family’s annual household income is actually lower now by about $1000 compared to when George Bush took office seven years ago, while health insurance premiums have doubled (from $6000 to $12,000 per year) and, as we all know, the price of a gallon of gas has tripled. American families are losing ground. We need to do something, and we need to do it now.

President Bush and his allies in Congress blocked an attempt by progressives to extend unemployment benefits, on a temporary basis during this difficult time, by an additional twenty six weeks. All they would allow is thirteen more weeks. When breadwinners lose their jobs, families lose more than money, they can lose health insurance, they can fall behind on mortgage payments, they can lose a sense of security and well-being. That’s why I opposed George W. Bush, and support extending unemployment benefits by an additional twenty-six weeks.

One of the other key problems hurting families and hurting the broader economy is the housing and mortgage crisis. Homeowners, too many of whom were sold mortgages by brokers using deceptive practices, can’t make their payments because they lose their jobs or because of rising costs of living (or both). This leads to more foreclosures, which then hurts the value of everyone else’s homes, leaving many of us with negative equity. We have a vicious cycle that has to be broken.

It didn’t have to be this way. George Bush and his supporters in Congress, like Chris Smith, turned a blind eye to the excesses in the housing and mortgage market. Smith voted to deregulate the financial services industry in 1999, opening the door for the Wild West lending practices of the Bush years that helped bring about the subprime mortgage crisis [S. 900, Vote #570, 11/4/99] Smith, Christopher (NJ/R) Y. It’s par for the course when dealing with Republican mismanagement.

More broadly, we need to have an economy that grows, and whose growth does not only benefit those who are already wealthy. I know that working people’s energy and productivity drive economic growth, and I’ll fight to make economic growth work for all families. That’s why I’m running for Congress.

Please visit our website and consider making a contribution. To volunteer, email ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com.

NJ-04: Smith: Allow Unscreened Luggage/Cargo on Planes

Amazingly, Chris Smith Voted to Allow Unscreened Luggage and Cargo on Airplanes.

Chris Smith voted against airline security. In 2003, Chris Smith voted against stronger regulations that would have provided the highest possible level of funding for Homeland Security, preparedness and disaster response programs. The bill would have required screening of all air cargo that traveled on commercial passenger planes. In 2002, Smith even voted against enforcing faster deadlines for screening all passenger luggage for explosives. (2003 Vote# 514, 2002 Vote #362)

“Chris Smith has the wrong priorities. Why did he vote against the higher screening standards that are commonplace today? While Americans still wrestle with the economic impact of terrorism, Chris Smith tried to leave us more vulnerable.” said Josh Zeitz Campaign Manager Steve D’Amico.

More after the break.

For too long, the media have failed to recognize that Republicans are the party that has weakened our national security. Josh Zeitz understands that being safe at home means investing the resources to keep us secure at our most vulnerable points, including at airports. That’s why he’s running to defeat Chris Smith and bring a new, common sense voice to Congress.

To volunteer, please email ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com, and please visit our website