Tag: Dick Green

• AR-Sen: Shortest Senate campaign ever. Former Arkansas Farm Bureau president Stanley Reed, about one week into his campaign, dropped out today, citing health reasons. Reed, with his resume and connections, was considered a very credible candidate when stacked up against the rest of the ragtag band of misfits running for the GOP. On the Dem side comes the intriguing news that the SEIU is paying down Lt. Gov. Bill Halter‘s campaign debt. Daily Kos’s Jed seems optimistic that the SEIU is facilitating a primary run against Blanche Lincoln (they said he “has a very bright political future,” although not specifically referencing the Senate race), although, considering there were rumors that the SEIU’s anti-Gilbert Baker ad was interpreted as a sign to Lincoln that they had her back (in exchange for her cooperation on an HCR cloture vote), it’s also possible this could be a carrot from the SEIU to Halter to stay out of the primary. This one’s worth keeping an eye on.

• AZ-Sen: This might be a clue that there’s some growing substance to the rumors that ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth is gearing up for a primary run against John McCain. He’s in Washington DC this week, meeting with potential supporters including conservative advocacy group Citizens United.

• CT-Sen: I’m not sure how much sway former Democratic state party chair Ed Marcus has over Chris Dodd or anybody else, but he’s gone on the record advocating that Dodd hang it up and make way for Richard Blumenthal. Dodd’s people responded that Marcus has some sort of old grudge against Dodd.

• KY-Sen: Um, whoops. Rand Paul’s campaign manager Chris Hightower had to resign his post yesterday after local blog Barefoot and Progressive found racist comments on Hightower’s MySpace page (and also video of performances by Hightower’s death metal band… gotta love those crazy libertarians). (Wait… MySpace? Srsly?) Primary rival Trey Grayson’s campaign wasted no time jumping on this, adding some fuel to their argument that Paul isn’t coming from mainstream Republican turf.

• IL-Gov: Rasmussen added some gubernatorial numbers to their Illinois sample, finding fairly comfortable leads for both incumbent Pat Quinn and Dem comptroller Dan Hynes against their Republican opposition. It wouldn’t be a Rasmussen poll without something inexplicable in it, though, and this time it’s the decision not to poll former AG Jim Ryan, who’s probably the Republican field’s frontrunner. Still, Quinn beats state party chair Andy McKenna 41-33, state Sen. Bill Brady 45-30, and state Sen. Kirk Dillard 41-30, while Hynes beats McKenna 43-30, Brady 46-27, and Dillard 42-29. Interesting to see Hynes overperforming Quinn in the general, even as Hynes looks unlikely to make it out of the primary; that may have to do with some Blago-related stench coming off of Quinn (Blago’s ex-LG, although they had absolutely nothing to do with each other), or just the reversal of positions, where the former reformer Quinn is now the insider and the well-connected Hynes is now the outsider. In the Dem primary, long-time SoS Jesse White threw his endorsement to Quinn. The Dem field also shrank to only Quinn and Hynes as the two minor candidates were vanquished; attorney Ed Scanlon was knocked off the ballot, while activist Dock Walls withdrew.

• NY-Gov: It had looked like Erie County Exec Chris Collins had gaffed his way out of contention for a possible run for the GOP gubernatorial nomination (after a bizarre tirade against Assembly speaker Sheldon Silver). But with Rudy Giuliani pretty clearly out of the field and ex-Rep. Rick Lazio exciting absolutely nobody, it looks like Collins may still take a whack at it. He just hired a campaign consulting firm run by a former Giuliani aide.

• IL-10: One of the four GOPers in the field in the 10th, Bill Cadigan, has dropped out; without state Rep. Beth Coulson’s name rec or the money of Dick Green or Bob Dold, he really didn’t have a foot in the door. Speaking of Bob Dold, Bob Dold is now on the air with a TV spot touting Bob Dold’s conservative economic views. Bob Dold!

• MN-06: If there’s someone out there who seems like she’d be one of those crazy bosses, it’s Rep. Michele Bachmann. She’s had a terrible time holding onto chiefs of staff, and now she’s facing a rupture with her entire fundraising group, described as a “defection” (although it’s not clear where they’re defecting to).

• NH-02: This isn’t going to endear ex-Rep. Charlie Bass to the teabag set, as he seeks to reclaim his seat. Bass just got a $2,500 check from NRCC chair Pete Sessions’ PAC. The anti-establishment right already has to be inclined to support right-wing radio talker Jennifer Horn over the moderate Bass.

• OH-15: Ex-state Sen. (and 2008 loser) Steve Stivers won’t get the GOP primary to himself; he’s facing a challenge from the right from John Adams, who’s labeling himself as the “conservative alternative.” Stivers also faces third-party right-winger David Ryon in the general, similar to what hamstrung him last time and let Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy squeak into office.

• OH-17: Ex-Rep. (and ex-con) Jim Traficant is in the news again, sounding revved up to, well, yell and gesticulate a lot, as always. He’s also still talking about another run for Congress, although he’s not sure where. He said he’d circulate nominating petitions in three different districts. His former seat in the 17th is likeliest, although so too is the neighboring 6th.

• PA-10: The race in the 10th has been slow to take shape, compared with most other red-leaning districts held by Democrats. But with state Rep. Mike Peifer recently having announced he’s interested in a race against Rep. Chris Carney, now someone else potentially higher up the food chain is checking it out too: former US Attorney Tom Marino, who already (wisely) passed on the race in 2008.

• PA-15: Here’s one more district with teabagger troubles for the NRCC and the Republican establishment. Rep. Charlie Dent is facing his toughest challenge yet from Democratic mayor of Bethlehem John Callahan, and now comes word of a challenge in the GOP primary from 9/12 movement member Matthew Benol. There’s also a third-party teabagger awaiting Dent in the general, Jake Towne.

• TN-06: State Sen. Jim Tracy seemed to have an early edge on securing the GOP nod in the now-open 6th, vacated recently by Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon. That was bolstered by his recent announcement that he’d already raised $100K in funds just this week, and that he’d gotten the endorsement of fellow state Sen. (and potential primary rival) Bill Ketron. However, he’s got some competition from another fellow state Senator now: Diane Black announced that she’s joining the race too. (Black is from suburban Gallatin, while Tracy is from more rural Shelbyville.)

• TN-08: Republican candidate Stephen Fincher had been successfully playing the “I’m just a humble farmer/gospel singer who’s never even been to Washington” role for a while, it seems, but suddenly the teabaggers are turning their wrath on even him, too. They’re taking an issue with his fundraising, as almost all of his money is coming from nearby farm families who’ve maxed-out on donations (which is a good sign, as his big haul so far was just him picking the low-hanging fruit; now the real test comes). What’s alarming to the anti-pork crowd is that how deep in the pocket of Big Ag he seems to be; his supporters have received a cumulative $80,000,000 in farm subsidies, and Fincher himself has gotten $6,000,000 in farm subsidies over the years, including $800,000 in 2007 alone.

• WA-03: The Democratic field seems to be solidifying, with Olympia-area state Rep. Brendan Williams, a frequently-mentioned possible candidate, deciding against a run. With state Sen. Craig Pridemore and state Rep. Deb Wallace both in, the two main candidates are both from Vancouver instead. Also worth noting: peace activist Cheryl Crist is in the race for the Dems too. Crist primaried Brian Baird in 2008, doing well at the activist-dominated nominating convention but making little impact in the actual primary.

• GA-St. House: It’s official; David Ralston is the new Republican speaker of Georgia’s House, following the suicide attempt and resignation of former speaker Glenn Richardson. If you’re looking for broader implications, it takes Ralston’s name out of contention in the open seat in GA-09, where he’d been rumored to be interested in a run.

• Demographics: Josh Goodman does some neat number-tweaking, overlaying Census projections onto the 2008 presidential election to try and predict the 2052 election. Assuming that racial groups keep voting for the same parties at the same proportions, he projects 58-40 Democratic edge. Of course, that’s easier said than done, as, for starters, Hispanics could return to their 2004-level GOP performance; also, as he points out, “Heck, in 40 years the Tea Party and the Green Party might be the major players in contesting the all-important cyborg vote.”

• Election results: There was a grab-bag of southern state runoffs and special elections last night; the main event was the Atlanta mayor’s race. It looks like Democratic African-American ex-state Sen. Kasim Reed defeated self-proclaimed-independent white city councilor Mary Norwood, but the margin is only around 620 votes (out of 83,000 cast). Reed has declared victory, but Norwood is talking recount.

There were also four legislative runoffs in Georgia; the only one that wasn’t an intra-party affair was in HD-141 (a previously Dem-held seat) where independent Rusty Kidd easily beat Democrat Russell Black. Kidd is staying mum on which party he’ll caucus with, although he’s the son of a prominent long-time Democratic legislator (Culver Kidd) and a stem-cell-research supporter. In HD-58 in Atlanta, community organizer Simone Bell becomes the first LGBT African-American elected to Georgia’s legislature. And in Tennessee, Republican state Rep. Brian Kelsey was elected easily in the vacant SD-31 in heavily Republican Memphis suburbs; he takes over for GOPer Paul Stanley, who resigned in disgrace after a sex scandal.

• IL-Sen: Former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman is up with the first TV ad in the fast-approaching Senate primary. Hoffman lacks name rec, but uses the ad to highlight his corruption-fighting past (and take some implicit hits at Alexi Giannoulias’s banking background).

• NY-Sen-B: You may remember Michael Balboni, who was pried out of his Dem-leaning Long Island state Senate seat by Eliot Spitzer to become the state’s Homeland Security chief and paving the way for Democratic takeover of the state Senate. Now he’s reportedly considering a run against Kirsten Gillibrand for Senate, as the New York GOP starts casting its net wider for somebody.

• UT-Sen: A Deseret News poll has bad news for Bob Bennett, in the form of perilous re-elects: only 27% support his re-election, and 58% want someone new. Nevertheless, he has a big edge over the field of nobodies circling around him: he polls at 31%, with Democrat Sam Granato at 14, followed by a gaggle of right-wingers: Cherilyn Eagar at 5, Tim Bridgewater and Fred Lampropoulos at 4, Mike Lee at 3, and James Williams at 1. With the Republican nomination potentially to be decided at the state convention — dominated by hard-right activists — though, these numbers don’t help to project much of anything for next year.

• IA-Gov: Chet Culver’s campaign manager Andrew Roos is out, as Culver stares at double-digit deficits against ex-Gov. Terry Branstad. Culver mangled his Shakesperean shrug-off, saying it’s “much to do about nothing.”

• TX-Gov: Press releases are already going out saying that Houston mayor Bill White is announcing something big on Friday, and now leaks are confirming what most people have suspected, that he’s going to go ahead and jump into the Democratic field in the governor’s race.

• FL-10: Sorta-moderate GOP Rep. Bill Young has another challenger — this time from the right. Eric Forcade says he got interested in politics from participating in tea parties and the 9/12 movement. (In case you’re having trouble remembering where all these random teabagger primary challenges are popping up, Think Progress has a handy scorecard of all of them.)

• IL-10: Little-known rich guy Dick Green dipped into his self-provided funds and laid out $100K for a big TV ad buy, introducing himself to Republican voters in the 10th. While Democrat Julie Hamos already has hit the airwaves, Green beats out fellow GOPers Beth Coulson and Bob Dold.

• KY-03: Rep. John Yarmuth may not exactly be intimidated by the first Republican to show up to go against him in Kentucky’s lone Dem-leaning district. Jeffrey Reetz has never run for office before, but he does own 25 Pizza Hut franchises.

• MD-04: Rep. Donna Edwards, who got into office via primary challenge, is facing a big challenge of her own. Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey has formed an exploratory committee to go up against Edwards for the Democratic nod. Ivey worked as a senior congressional staffer in the 1980s and 1990s; although he expresses enthusiasm for moving the “progressive agenda forward,” he’s probably running at least a bit to the right of Edwards, one of the leftmost House members.

• MN-01: This marks the third entry to the field against Democratic Rep. Tim Walz in about one week’s time. Today, it’s Republican Jim Hagedorn, a former congressional staffer and a one-time blogger under the name “Mr. Conservative.” He joins ex-state Rep. Allen Quist and state Rep. Randy Demmer, although the party seems to still be watching what more moderate state Sen. Julie Rosen does.

• PA-11: Hazleton mayor and 2008 loser Lou Barletta is doing his best to stay in the news, announcing that he’ll make another announcement on Dec. 9 as to whether or not he’ll seek a third faceoff against Democratic Rep. Paul Kanjorski.

• TN-08, TN-Gov: In case you missed our late update last night, Democratic state Sen. Roy Herron got out of the governor’s race where he was something of a longshot, and into the now-open TN-08 field, where he’s probably the favorite to get the Democratic nod. (Although open seats are theoretically harder to defend, Herron’s long district presence and lack of ties to Washington could conceivably help him to perform better next year than long-time Beltway creature Tanner might have.) Party officials (and outgoing Rep. John Tanner too, although he declined to endorse anyone yet) are moving quickly to keep a contested primary from happening, although state Rep. Philip Pinion has also been publicly letting his interest be known. Also, in discussing his sudden retirement decision, Tanner claims he wasn’t scared off by the fundraising success of out-of-nowhere GOP challenger Stephen Fincher; he’d already been eyeing retirement and the challenge “got his competitive juices flowing” but finally decided to call it a career.

• UT-02: Morgan Philpot, a former Republican state Representative, is considering a race against Rep. Jim Matheson next year. Philpot is currently the state party’s vice-chair, so he would bring some insider backing to the race.

• NY-Comptroller (pdf): With all the sudden talk of recruiting NYC comptroller William Thompson onto the Cuomo “ticket” to wage a primary fight against current state comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, it’s worth going back and noting that the most recent Siena poll from a few weeks ago actually polled this permutation. They found a 31-31 tie in the Clash of the Comptrollers. They also found that both would beat Republican John Faso in the general.

• TX-Comptroller: In fact, talking about comptrollers is so much fun I’m going to keep doing it. Ex-Rep. Nick Lampson, who couldn’t hold down dark-red TX-22 last year, says that’s he’s looking into next year’s comptroller’s race, which would bring top-tier Democratic talent to another statewide race in Texas.

• NY-St. Sen.: After a lot of optimistic predictions earlier in the day, the actual vote on gay marriage in the New York Senate today kind of fizzled. Eight Democrats voted against and no Republicans crossed the aisle, leaving it to go down 24-38. Ironically, Marist came out with a poll today showing public support in favor of gay marriage, 51-42.

• CA-St. Ass.: However, in the one-step-forward, one-step-back fight for LGBT equality, California looks like it’s poised to have its first-ever gay Assembly Speaker. Los Angeles Assemblyman John Perez apparently has the votes locked up to take over as Speaker from Karen Bass, who’s termed out.

• Nassau Co. Exec: Two-term incumbent Tom Suozzi, who was down by 377 votes to Republican challenger Ed Mangano after a recount, decided to concede rather than pursue legal options. Suozzi, who’d be considered a likely AG candidate next year, says he’ll be back in politics but he can’t “imagine it would be anytime soon.”

• Mayors: It looks like a premature end of the line for Baltimore mayor Sheila Dixon, who was just convicted of misdemeanor embezzlement for helping herself to $1,500 worth of gift cards that had been donated to give to poor families. Dixon is supposed to be suspended from office, but post-trial motions and a possible appeal may push that until later. City Council President Stephanie Rawlings-Blake is in line to succeed her.

• DGA: There’s new leadership at the Democratic Governor’s Association, as fast-rising Delaware governor Jack Markell (who’s been in office only for a year) takes over from Montana’s Brian Schweitzer. One of the DGA’s first orders of business as they prep for 2010: committing $1 million to the GOP Accountability Project, whose first ad target is Florida Republican candidate Bill McCollum.

• CO-Sen: The NRSC got its sort-of-top-tier challenger to Michael Bennet in the Colorado Senate race: former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton filed to form an exploratory committee and launched her campaign website, suggesting that the exploratory period will be a brief one. Norton’s never been elected on her own (just while joined to popular Gov. Bill Owens), but, unlike the rest of the GOP field, she’s at least known statewide.

• CT-Sen, AR-Sen: Chris Dodd finally made his decision about which Senate committee to chair, and he opted to return to Banking, instead of continuing at HELP where he shepherded through health care reform legislation in Ted Kennedy’s absence. He still has a lot on his plate; he’ll be focusing on bolstering financial services regulations and creating a new banking consumer protection agency (all stuff that would seem less likely to happen if Tim Johnson took over Banking). The WaPo says that all signs point to Tom Harkin of Iowa, #2 on HELP, ditching his coveted Agriculture chair to take over HELP. This means the Agriculture chair is likely to fall to Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas (bypassing a few other more senior Senators with better chairs), who, while not from a big farm state, is facing a difficult re-election and will benefit from the profile and money that come from a chair.

• LA-Sen: The Charlie Melancon campaign released an internal poll taken by Anzalone Liszt that’s getting a little stale (taken in mid-May, long before Melancon announced), but that shows Melancon in striking distance. The head-to-head has David Vitter beating Melancon 47-37 (and Melancon winning the bogus “after hearing positive info” vote 49-41). The good news is that Vitter’s re-elect number is down to 39%, with 45% preferring someone new. Melancon has 35/13 favorables.

• TX-Sen: Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst sent a letter to supporters that he’s running for re-election in 2010. While he may be the initial odds-on favorite to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Senate, I wouldn’t take this to mean he’s not running in the Senate special election — since he doesn’t need to give up his seat to run and he’d probably like to keep being Lt. Gov. if he loses the election, and there’s also still a possibility that KBH doesn’t resign after all, if she senses the gubernatorial primary heading south on her. (H/t DTM,B!)

• AK-Gov: No surprise here, but Democratic former state House minority leader and 2008 House candidate Ethan Berkowitz filed his candidacy papers today. He’ll likely face off against Sean Parnell, who inherited the office after Sarah Palin’s re$ignation, but first he’ll need to survive a primary against state Sen. Hollis French and Bob Poe. (Parnell will also need to survive a primary against state Rep. John Harris.)

• MA-Gov: Tim Cahill picked a strange day to make his announcement, on a day when everyone is fixated on the Massachusetts Senate race instead, but today he made official what has long been suspected: he’s running for Governor. The Dem-turned-Independent state Treasurer has a $3 million warchest, giving him a big edge over incumbent Dem Deval Patrick, who has $464K (of course, if Christy Mihos wins the GOP primary, he can put all his expenses on his own tab). Polls that have included Cahill have shown him running neck-and-neck with Patrick, although Cahill is running against tradition — there has apparently never been an Independent elected to statewide office in Massachusetts.

• MN-Gov: I’ve completely lost track of how many people are now running for Minnesota Governor — let’s just say it’s a number somewhere between 10 and 800 — but one more guy got in the race on Labor Day: state Rep. Tom Rukavina, for the DFL. Rukavina is from the town of Virginia in the rural but very pro-union Iron Range.

• OR-Gov: While the Dem side of the Oregon Governor’s race is narrowing, the GOP side keeps growing: former state Senator John Lim from Portland’s eastern suburbs said he’d get in. Lim is best-known for losing the 1998 Senate race to Ron Wyden (with a whopping 34% of the vote).

• SC-Gov: While it’s unclear whether “calls for resignation” on Mark Sanford’s part will ever turn into a tangible move for impeachment or just some pre-emptive ass-covering by state Republicans so it looked like they tried, those calls are getting louder. The state’s House Speaker, Bobby Harrell, made the call yesterday, and now there’s talk of a letter with the signatures of at least 60 House GOPers (out of 72, and almost half the entire House) calling on Sanford to step down.

• VT-Gov: As we reported yesterday, Vermont Auditor Tom Salmon did in fact follow through on his decision to switch to from the Democrats to the Republican Party. However, Salmon sounds likely to run again for Auditor, saying there’s a “10% chance” he’ll run for Governor instead. Salmon said that he’d support Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie if Dubie were to run for Governor, and wouldn’t challenge him in a primary. There’s been no word from Dubie, though, on what he plans to do.

• FL-08: Rep. Alan Grayson… well, let me try to be kind here and say that he courageously ignores all that conventional wisdom about who and who not to piss off. He’s picking a fight with his hometown paper, the Orlando Sentinel, referring to them in a fundraising e-mail as “a trashy tabloid that dresses up bias and gossip as news.”

• FL-24: Former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz may have decided against a run in his current home district, the 24th, but he’s holding a fundraiser on behalf of Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel, one of the three GOPers seeking the nod to go against Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in this R+4 district.

• IL-10: Bob Dold is running for the GOP nomination in the 10th District, joining state Rep. Beth Coulson and rich guys Dick Green and Bill Cadigan. Bob Dold is a lawyer who also owns a pest control business. In keeping with district’s lean, Bob Dold says that Bob Dold is fiscally conservative and socially moderate.

• NE-02: Jim Esch, who’s coming off two back-to-back losses to GOP Rep. Lee Terry, switched his party affiliation to “independent” last week, but said yesterday that he has no plans to seek elected office at any level in the future. Esch defended his decision to the Omaha World-Herald: “I feel a little hypocritical when I go to Democratic parties and say, ‘I’m a Democrat’ when I don’t believe in the party.” (J)

Meanwhile, across town, state Sen. Tom White (who’s apparently still a Democrat) officially launched his campaign against Terry today.

• PA-03: Suddenly there’s a backlog of challengers to Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, the Dem freshman in this R+3 district. Republican Meadville businessman Paul Huber, who ran a heating equipment company and served on a local medical center board, filed campaign paperwork. AG’s office investigator Elaine Surma is already in the race for the GOP, and former Erie County Solicitor John Onorato sounds likely to run.

• PA-06: Here’s a likely minor, but certainly interesting, challenge to Doug Pike (who seems to have the establishment support locked down) in the Democratic primary in the open seat race in the 6th. Manan Trivedi is a Reading native born to Indian immigrants; he is an Iraq vet and a primary care physician. He formally announced his campaign yesterday.

• Redistricting: Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita has gone off the deep end in anticipation of the next round of redistricting in Indiana: he wants to make it a felony to consider politics in the redistricting process. Um… considering that Rokita is a Republican and that Republicans are likely to control the redistricting process post-2010, I don’t quite get it. (And neither do Republican legislators, who are telling him to shut up.)

• Votes: The Hill compiles a list of 23 Democrats who have indicated opposition to “the health care plan moving through the House.” (Nancy Pelosi can afford to lose up to 38 votes.) It’s unclear what “opposition” means, and the rationale isn’t always the same (Eric Massa, for instance, opposes it, but only because he’s stuck in single-payer mode), but it’s an interesting list, generally of the vulnerable and/or the hardcore Blue Doggish (although New Jersey’s John Adler strangely stands out like a sore thumb).

• FL-Sen: Is ex-Rep. Mike Bilirakis, under official consideration from Gov. Charlie Crist to serve as an interim placeholder in the Senate, taking the appointment process seriously? The St. Petersberg times digs up Bilirakis’ submitted questionnaire (.pdf) and says that the hand-scribbled document looks “like he filled it out while driving”. He also left some key questions, like “Have you ever been party to a lawsuit?”, blank.

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias may claim to be Barack Obama’s BFF, but look who just signed up Obama ’08 guru David Axelrod’s consulting firm to work for his campaign: newly-announced candidate David Hoffman, who yesterday resigned as Chicago’s Inspector General.

• LA-Sen: Now that Charlie Melancon has made his Senate bid official, state Sen. Eric LaFleur, who was previously courted as a potential Democratic candidate for the race, says that he’ll be supporting Melancon for the race.

• GA-Gov: Strategic Vision has dipped its barometer back into the Georgia gubernatorial primaries, and finds little meaningful change since last month’s poll. For the Republicans, Oxendine leads with 39%, followed by 13% for Nathan Deal and 12% for Karen Handel. In the Democratic primary, ex-Gov. Roy Barnes leads the pack with 45%, followed by AG Thurbert Baker with 29%. Poythress and Porter are still mired in the low-single digits.

• NJ-Gov: Chris Christie’s once-vaunted rep as a Corruption Fighter™ has taken a pounding this month. Yesterday came another roundhouse kick to the jaw: Back in 2005, Christie was pulled over for speeding and (it turns out) driving an uninsured and unregistered sail barge automobile. Despite the officer writing “NO DEAL” on the ticket, Christie was allowed to drive home and later got some of the charges dropped – it seems he may have scuzzily tried to pull rank as US Attorney. And guess who was with him at the time? None other than former aide Michele Brown, who resigned two days ago. (D)

• NM-Gov: Bill Richardson is breathing a sigh of relief with the news that the investigation into allegations of pay-to-play politics under his watch at the governor’s office is now officially over with no indictments. Meanwhile, actor Val Kilmer’s flirtation with the open seat gubernatorial race is now officially over.

• VA-Gov: Creigh Deeds is out with a new radio ad in which one of the narrators anoints him as “that underdog guy”, while the Republican Governors Association’s Common Sense Virginia PAC is launching TV and radio ads hitting Deeds on wasteful spending. Of course, as Steve Singiser points out, the RGA only a month ago attacked Deeds and the DGA when they formed a similar PAC, calling it a “shadow organization”.

• CA-02: GOP Rep. Wally Herger, at a recent town hall meeting, praised an attendee who called himself a “proud right-wing terrorist”. “There is a great American,” Herger said of the man, named Bert Stead. Now Herger is doubling-down, refusing to apologize for praising the man and taking the opportunity to trash liberals for calling their political opponents “political terrorists”. The only problem, though, is that HuffPo has the video of Stead identifying himself as a proud terrorist!

• CA-45: Riverside County Supervisor Roy Wilson resigned over the weekend due to health reasons, and last night passed away. After Wilson’s resignation but before his passing, Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet, running as a Dem against GOP Rep. Mary Bono Back, recommitted his focus to the congressional bid, saying that a run for the supervisor seat is “not at all” being considered.

• IL-08: The NRCC is hoping to wrangle Maria Rodriguez, the Village President of Long Grove (pop. 6,735), into a run against now-established Dem Rep. Melissa Bean. Rodriguez says that “it’s an interesting proposition” that she’s taking under consideration, but Bean is still riding high off a 60-40 win over briefly-touted GOP businessman Steve Greenberg in 2008.

• IL-10: The NRCC may be happy to have moderate state Rep. Beth Coulson in the race to replace Mark Kirk, but she’ll have company in the GOP primary. Businessman Dick Green, the CEO of Briefing.com, made his candidacy official today, and took the opportunity to lash out at “career politicians”.

• KS-02: Frosh Rep. Lynn Jenkins, to fellow travelers at a town hall event: “Republicans are struggling right now to find the great white hope.” Jenkins’ spokesbot shoved foot in mouth even further with this “apology”: “There may be some misunderstanding there when she talked about the great white hope. What she meant by it is they have a bright future. They’re bright lights within the party.” Good luck with that. (D)

• MT-AL: Here’s something that somehow slipped our notice. Research 2000, dipping its toes into Montana for Daily Kos, tested GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg’s approvals and re-elects. Rehberg’s sitting on a 46-45 approval rating — lower than either of the state’s Democratic Senators — and has a 39% re-elect rating (27% say they will definitely vote to replace him, and another 34% say they will consider voting for another candidate). Those aren’t particularly formidable numbers.

A very special morning edition of the Daily Digest!

• IA-Sen: The Des Moines Register’s Marc Hansen teases that “a well-known mystery candidate” with “name recognition and money” is “about 75 percent ready to join the race” against deather douchebag GOPer Chuck Grassley. The Politico’s Charles Mahtesian speculates that the mystery candidate could be none other than Dem Rep. Bruce Braley. Color me skeptical.

• IL-10: NRCC recruitment wiz kid Kevin McCarthy parachuted himself into the Chicagoland area on Saturday in order to survey the recruitment progress in race to defend GOP Rep. Mark Kirk’s open seat. He met with a small batch of prospects, including stock market analyst Dick Green, attorney Bill Cadigan (a former staffer for ex-Rep. Jon Porter, who held the 10th District for two decades prior to Kirk), and businessman Bob Dold. Interestingly, that list didn’t include any of the district’s deep bench of Republican state legislators. I’m not sure if we should read that as a tea leaf that state Rep. Beth Coulson may not be serious about running, but it appears that the GOP is preparing for the prospect of defending this seat with a political newcomer.

• IN-03: Talk about taking one for the team. Former Fort Wayne city councilman Tom Hayhurst, an M.D. who gave GOP Rep. Mark Souder the closest shave of his political life in 2006, has filed papers for a rematch in 2010. Hayhurst lost to Souder by a 54-46 margin that year — a pretty impressive showing given the district’s horrid R+14 bent. But after Souder pasted well-funded attorney Mike Montagano in 2008 by 15 points, it’s hard to see how the good doctor has a shot in hell here. Godspeed, sir.

• FL-08: Here’s some good news for frosh Dem Rep. Alan Grayson. Larry Cretul, the Republican Speaker of the Florida House, has decided against challenging the former beardo next year. The GOP still has a number of options here, including state Rep. Stephen Precourt and Orlando Mayor Rich Crotty.

Precourt, for his part, told the St. Petersburg Times that he may be interested in a bid, but sounds supportive of state Sen. Dan Webster, should he choose to run. More from Precourt:

“I am a big fan of Senator Dan Webster, but am keeping my powder dry for now. It seems best to stand back and let Congressman Grayson self destruct for the time being, as he is doing quite a good job of it.”

Precourt may have been referring to Grayson’s legislative priorities, but he could have just as easily been alluding to the congressman’s, uh, relaxed style of speech. During a Netroots Nation panel in Pittsburgh on Friday, Grayson decided to yuk it up by saying his 2008 opponent, GOP Rep. Ric Keller, “did all his hiring at Hooters”. He went on to relate an anecdote about how one of his “more resourceful” supporters posed as a volunteer at his opponent’s campaign headquarters for several days, and reported back that “they spent all their time flying paper clips at each other and watching porn on their computers.”

• MN-Gov: It’s no surprise, but Minnesota House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, a Democrat, formally threw her hat into the extremely crowded gubernatorial race on Thursday.

• MO-04: It looks like longtime Dem Rep. Ike Skelton, who’s been manning the fort for us in this R+14 district since Baby Jesus was riding dinosaurs to school, is going to have an honest-to-God race on his hands in 2010. GOP state Sen. Bill Stouffer, whose district overlaps some of the 4th’s northern counties, filed his statement of candidacy with the FEC last week. Stouffer will face a primary from fundie-flavored ex-state Rep. Vicky Hartzler.

• NC-Sen: With NC SoS Elaine Marshall officially still on the fence, the DSCC isn’t sitting idly by to wait for her decision. Former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker, who lost the 2000 Democratic gubernatorial primary to Mike Easley, says that he’s had conversations with the DSCC and ex-Gov. Jim Hunt about challenging GOP Sen. Richard Burr, and will consider his options. I’d say that Democrats had better lock up either Marshall or Wicker before they realize how ugly 2010 is going to be for Team Blue.

• NV-Sen: Wanna run against Harry Reid (and win)? It really doesn’t appear to be that daunting of a task if you believe the spurt of Republican polls in the past few days. Hot on the heels of a poll showing NV GOP Chair Susan Lowden smacking Reid by an six-point margin, two-time political loser Danny Tarkanian is out with a poll from Chariot, LLC (never heard of ’em) showing him beating Reid by a 50-42 spread.

But before we leave it at that, I just want to briefly touch on this howler from Reno Gazette-Journal reporter Anjeanette Damon:

It was an automated poll, meaning a recorded voice asked respondents to express their preference by pushing a number on their phone. These polls, while inexpensive to run, are not regarded as the most accurate method of obtaining survey results.

Maybe this poll is bunk, but I’m getting pretty tired of journalists who can’t bother to, at the bare minimum, take five minutes to review Nate’s pollster ratings. Or as Tom Jensen recently lamented:

I think there should be a required J School course for all aspiring political journalists on how to truly understand polling, the different methodologies, and the different organizations. I’d put pretty high up on the list that they should learn to look up and analyze the track records of various organizations instead of judging them on hearsay and other subjective criteria.

If only.

• NY-Gov: The Q&Q Polling Factory is out with the n-thousandth poll showing Democratic Gov. David Paterson in comically bad shape. Pitted in a primary against AG Andrew Cuomo, Paterson now loses by a 61-15 margin, down from a 57-20 loss in June. In a general election against Rudy Giuliani, Paterson loses 53-33, while Cuomo leads by 48-39. The numbers scream for themselves.

• PA-05: SSP extends our condolences to the family and friends of Bill Cahir, who was killed while on duty in Afghanistan late last week. Cahir, as you may remember, ran a very respectable campaign for the Democratic nomination in Pennsylvania’s 5th District last year, losing a three-way race to Mark McCracken.

• TX-Gov: In a bit of a let-down for Texas activists, Austin-area state Sen. Kirk Watson, seen as a rising star in the TX Democratic Party, announced on Friday that he’ll be seeking re-election to the state senate rather than entering the gubernatorial primary, which is already populated by the likes of Tom Schieffer and Kinky Friedman.

• CT-Sen: Political expediency makes you do weird things. Shortly after ultra-conservative Pat Tooomey, facing minor opposition in the Pennsylvania GOP primary but having to remodel himself for the general, came out in support of Sonia Sotomayor’s nomination, now moderate Rob Simmons, facing serious opposition from the right in the Connecticut GOP primary, has come out against Sotomayor.

• IL-Sen: A poll from Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (no mention on whose behalf the poll was taken) finds that state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias should have little trouble gaining the Democratic nomination for the Senate race. In a 3-way matchup, he gets 45% of the vote, with businessman Chris Kennedy at 17% and Chicago Urban League president Cheryle Jackson at 13%. However, Kennedy seems to be backing down from the race and may instead run for Governor if he runs for anything; a 2-way matchup between Giannoulias and Jackson gives Giannoulias a 51-21 edge.

• KY-Sen: Rand Paul, opthalmologist and son of former Presidential candidate Ron Paul, officially kicked off his race for the GOP Senate nomination. And here’s an interesting choice: he’s making the kickoff announcement in New York City, saying that it’s a national race and that, according to a spokesperson, “If he makes it to the Senate and votes in D.C., he’ll vote for people in New York and in California. His vote matters that much.” Yeah… I’m sure that’ll play really well among the actual people in Kentucky, that their Senator will be voting on behalf of New Yorkers and Californians.

• NH-Sen: After a lot of criticism on the ground in New Hampshire, especially from the editorial page of the influential (among right-wingers) Manchester Union-Leader, John Cornyn is backing down from plans to coronate Kelly Ayotte with an NRSC fundraiser in DC in September, and said that the planned fundraiser hadn’t been an endorsement. Dean at Blue Hampshire wonders when the NRSC Ovide Lamontagne fundraiser will be.

• NY-Gov: While the general sense is that behind-the-scenes power brokers are giving David Paterson a little more time to turn the polls around before trying to usher him out the door, 11 labor leaders in Buffalo aren’t waiting. They sent a letter to Andrew Cuomo — whose official story is that he’s running for re-election as AG, but whose private interest is well-known — urging him to run and, while not guaranteeing him their endorsement, saying they look forward to him running.

• SC-Gov: It looks like Democrats may have landed a top-tier candidate for the 2010 gubernatorial race: state superintendent of education Jim Rex, SC’s only statewide elected Democrat. Few had expected the 67-year-old Rex to get into the field (which already contains state Sens. Vincent Shaheen and Robert Ford and attorney Mullins McLeod), based on his fundraising so far. But, he may have sensed an opening, despite South Carolina’s red hue, in the wake of Mark Sanford’s implosion (and the way it laid bare a lot of people’s concerns with his possible general election opponent, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer). Rex has formed an exploratory committee to start raising funds for a gubernatorial bid, and says he’ll make a final decision on the race “by early September”.

• CA-10: The GOP added one more Young Gun this week (as an “On the Radar” pick, which I assume is analogous to R2B’s “Emerging” picks last year): attorney David Harmer, the guy who’s running for the Republicans in September’s special election. At D+11, I’m not sure what I can add, other than “good luck with that.”

• CA-47: Speaking of Young Guns, Assemblyman Van Tran, who’s running against Loretta Sanchez in this Latino-majority D+4 district, was a surprise inclusion in the program (well, maybe not that surprising, since he’s been fundraising well in the larger Vietnamese community). However, his primary opponent, Quang Pham, isn’t daunted, and has now set a $250K goal of his own for the end of next quarter; he’ll be including some of his own funds toward that goal.

• FL-24: Former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz, who now lives in the Orlando area, confirmed that he won’t run as a Republican for the 24th next year. Reports came out yesterday that he’d talked to the NRCC about a run. Three Republicans, including two termed-out state Reps, are already in the race against Dem freshman Suzanne Kosmas in this R+4 district.

• IL-10: Another Republican may get into the race to replace Rep. Mark Kirk: businesswoman Renee Thaler, a former official in ex-Gov. Jim Edgar’s administration, formed an exploratory committee. State Rep. Beth Coulson is the only elected GOPer interested in the race, along with businessman Dick Green and attorneys Jim Koch and Bill Cadigan.

• NH-02: The Democratic field in the open seat race in the 2nd got smaller, though; former state Sen. and gubernatorial candidate Mark Fernald dropped out the race, citing family reasons. Attorney Ann McLane Kuster is the only candidate officially in the race, although party insider Katrina Swett is expected by all to get in soon.

• PA-06: The primary fight is on, for the GOP, in the open seat race in PA-06. Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello entered the race; he’ll face off against state Rep. Curt Schroder, who has already been preparing for the race for many months. Democratic candidate Doug Pike is still unopposed, at least for now.

• Where Are They Now?: On their way to prison, that’s where. Former Rep. Bill Jefferson was convicted on 11 of 16 counts, including a RICO charge which carries a possible 20-year sentence. (Thanks to Joe Cao for hustling Jefferson out the door before he could be convicted while still a sitting Democratic Representative, saving us some bad PR.) Also, in yesterday’s comments, Fitzy has a hilarious and must-read timeline of the slow decline of Sharon Renier, our 04 and 06 candidate in MI-07, who, in the wake of her primary loss in a recent state Senate special election, has quite literally gone off the reservation.

The field to replace GOP Rep. Mark Kirk in the House is quickly taking shape. First, ’06/’08 Democratic nominee Dan Seals is back for a third try, according to an e-mail that his campaign sent to his supporters (Lynn Sweet has the full text here). Dan Seals is a heck of a nice guy, and he was a prodigious fundraiser last cycle, but it remains to be seen if he’ll enjoy anything close to the groundswell of financial and grassroots support that he received in the ’08 Democratic primary, where he absolutely crushed attorney Jay Footlik.

One thing that could make his task easier, as he attempts this third bite at the apple, is the announcement from state Sen. Susan Garrett that she will be staying put in legislature. From Roll Call:

National Democrats have tried to recruit state Sen. Susan Garrett (D) in the 10th district for the past few cycles, but she has resisted a bid each time. In a phone interview Monday, Garrett said she has decided not to run for the open-seat race.

“I made the decision this weekend, albeit it wasn’t easy,” Garrett said. “I’m here to stay for a while.”

Garrett is close with state Rep. Julie Hamos (D), who she said will move from Rep. Jan Schakowsky’s (D) neighboring district into the 10th district to run. Hamos did not return a call for comment on the race, but Garrett said she would be likely to support her at some point in the campaign.

At this point it’s just Seals, state Sen. Michael Bond (whose underwhelming $86K second quarter haul did his candidacy no favors) and attorney Elliot Richardson vying for the Democratic nod, but it’s possible that more names from local offices could emerge.

For the GOP, Roll Call and CQ both rattle off a similar batch of names:

• Businessman Dick Green, CEO of Briefing.com
• Businessman Bill Strong, former Illinois finance chairman for John McCain’s Presidential campaign
• State Rep. Ed Sullivan
• Businesswoman/ex-Mount Prospect mayoral candidate Patricia Bird
• Lake County Board Member Ann Maine
• Wilmette Village President Chris Canning
• State Rep. Beth Coulson*

Take a look at that last name on the list. Beth Coulson, a moderate Republican, would be a pretty strong choice for the GOP in theory. In an interview with Roll Call, she says that the NRCC has been in contact with her and that she’ll make a decision on the race next month, but her staff doesn’t seem to be on the same page — they told CQ that she will be running for re-election instead of Congress next year. So which is it?

RaceTracker wiki: IL-10

• WI-Gov: Hot on the heels of changing Ohio to Lean Dem yesterday, today we’re downgrading the Wisconsin gubernatorial race to Lean Dem as well. We aren’t reacting to any one recent event (the only two polls so far have dramatically disparate results, but they average out to a tight race), but realized that we had no business keeping WI-Gov at Likely Dem if OH-Gov is going to be Lean Dem.

• CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina seems to be moving toward running against Barbara Boxer after all, not taking formal steps but rubbing elbows with the right people. Here’s some ill-timed bad PR for her, though: Fiorina has been telling people that she’s now CEO of her own company (Carly Fiorina Enterprises) and her own foundation (Fiorina Foundation), but neither one has been registered with the proper state or federal authorities… which might lead some to question her vaunted business organization skills.

• IL-Sen: The Fix reports that alleged field-clearing heavyweight Rep. Mark Kirk may still face a contested GOP primary in the Senate race; state party chair Andy McKenna, recruited as the GOP’s Plan B, seems to be staying in for now, and the state’s Republican congressional delegation is staying, at least publicly, neutral. The flashpoint may be Kirk’s recent vote in favor of cap-and-trade.

• MO-Sen: In the “did he really just say that file?” Roy Blunt offers up a doozy: in a conservative talk radio interview, he said that maybe it would have been better if the federal government had never created Medicare, Medicaid, or VA health care, because it “distorts the marketplace.” Way to put the senior citizen vote in play there, Roy!

• NV-Sen: Off-the-record GOP consultants say that a John Ensign resignation may be “on the table” and that there are worries that there may still be even more undisclosed payments to the Hamptons floating around. If there are public calls for resignation from the other key GOPers in Nevada — Gov. Jim Gibbons, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, Rep. Dean Heller — it’s time to prepare the fork for sticking (of course, with two of those three in deep scandal of their own, there’s a certain pot/kettle thing going on).

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter made his first aggressive moves against possible primary challenger Rep. Joe Sestak today, calling him a “flagrant hypocrite” for not being a Democrat until 2006. (Sestak was an Independent during his decades of military service, and switched to Dem once he was out of the service.) Hmmm… remind me again which year Arlen Specter became a Democrat? Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the NRSC just can’t help themselves from hiking the Appalachian Trail despite their efforts to fall back in love with Pat Toomey. They’ve been talking behind the scenes with state Sen. Jane Orie about running in the primary (although she’s almost as conservative as Toomey, so it’s not clear what benefit that would provide).

• AK-Gov: Guess who’s saying “thanks but no thanks” to the assistance offered by the divine Sarah Palin: the GOP candidates in the two very-close blue-state gubernatorial races this year, Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell. (On the other hand, Rick Perry, who needs to rally every wingnut he can get his hands on in order to win his primary in Texas, welcomes her.) The Hill also sniffs out a number of other candidates facing possibly tough races who’d like her to stay far, far away, including Reps. Lee Terry, Frank Wolf, Mike Castle, and Pete Hoekstra. (In his efforts to become World’s Most Tone-Deaf Man, Roy Blunt welcomes her help, though.) Finally, check out Peggy Noonan‘s authoritative takedown of Palin today; say what you will about the whole pure evil thing, the woman has a way with words.

• PA-Gov: With a lot of people looking at the Democratic field in the Governor’s race and asking “is that all there is?” a familiar face is considering the race: Montgomery Co. Commissioner (and former Rep. and 2004 Senate candidate) Joe Hoeffel. In his favor, he’d be the only elected official from the Philly area in the race (Tom Knox is from Philly, but has never held office).

• IL-10: With Rep. Mark Kirk kindly leaving an open seat for us, both the Daily Herald and Roll Call take a look at the developing fields in this race. On the Dem side, the leading contenders are state Sens. Michael Bond (already in the race) and Susan Garrett. Dan Seals, who lost in 2006 and 2008 to Kirk, is also considering a third try. The only GOPer in the race is Patricia Bird, but businessman Dick Green and state Rep. Elizabeth Coulson are likely contestants.

• NY-23: Don’t count out state Sen. Darrel Aubertine on becoming the Democratic candidate in NY-23, despite the ongoing craziness in the New York state Senate. Although the July 17 filing deadline is coming up and he hasn’t made any noise about it, Aubertine is still considering it and will have the requisite family sit-down about it once he has the time (which maybe he’ll have, now that the Senate is back to “normal”).

• VA-05: Rep. Tom Perriello has become the focus in the tug-of-war over cap-and-trade. A week after the NRCC made him the sole target of a TV attack ad for voting in favor, the League of Conservation Voters is running thank-you ads in his central Virginia district.

• Mayors: Louisiana Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu has options, but he ruled out a third run at New Orleans mayor, for which he’d been considered front-runner. A run for Governor in 2011 (or maybe not until the open seat in 2015) now seems likelier. This leaves city councilor Arnie Fielkow in the driver’s seat for the next mayoral election.

• Caucuses: This seems like an odd time for this to happen, in the middle of the fight over health care reform: the Congressional Progessive Caucus canned its executive director, Bill Goold, without much explanation.