NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B: Paterson Crosses Event Horizon, Gillibrand Slides

Marist Poll (4/28-29, registered voters, late Feb. in parens). First, the NY-Gov primary matchups:

Andrew Cuomo (D): 70 (62)

David Paterson (D-inc): 21 (26)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 75

Rick Lazio (R): 14

(MoE: ±6%)

And the general election matchups:

David Paterson (D-inc): 32 (38)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 56 (53)

David Paterson (D-inc): 37

Rick Lazio (R): 40

Andrew Cuomo (D): 55 (56)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 38 (39)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 67

Rick Lazio (R): 22

(MoE: ±3%)

Paterson losing to Rick Lazio? That Rick Lazio? Oh man. Please, just make it stop. Believe it or not, though, it actually gets worse. In response to the question “Who would you rather have as governor right now?”, voters prefer Eliot Spitzer over David Paterson by a 51-38 margin. Yeesh.

Sigh. Okay. The Senate side primary head-to-heads:

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 36

Carolyn Maloney: 31

(MoE: ±4.5%)

George Pataki (R): 48 (56)

Peter King (R): 36 (32)

(MoE: ±6%)

And the general:

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 38 (45)

George Pataki (R): 46 (41)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 42 (49)

Peter King (R): 31 (28)

(MoE: ±3%)

Marist unfortunately doesn’t offer any explanation as to why Gillibrand’s numbers have dropped. Her approvals have worsened, from 18-32 to 19-38. But on that question, Marist is a strange outlier from all other outfits – no one else has Gillibrand under water like that.

As for a potential primary challenge, Marist showed Gillibrand with almost identical numbers a few months back against the other Rep. Carolyn (McCarthy of Long Island). But I’m convinced that Steve Israel is by far the most likely to actually show up, and is the only person I think would have any kind of chance.

37 thoughts on “NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B: Paterson Crosses Event Horizon, Gillibrand Slides”

  1. Gillibrand hasn’t done anything noticeable that would harm her numbers, so far as I’ve seen.

    I stand by my earlier prediction that she’ll fend off anybody who ends up challenging her, either in the primaries or in the general.

  2. Why?  I don’t see him as particularly strong, certainly not any stronger than Maloney.  Israel is basically a male Gillibrand.

  3. As opposed to simply dead for Paterson.  Gillibrand’s carrying a lot of baggage.  Who appointed her, the circumstances of her appointment, and her blue dog house record.  Downstate New Yorkers are not taken in by her supposed move to the left.  Carolyn Maloney will be the next senator from New York.

  4. I know it’s tacky to say so, but I don’t think that we’re so damn far beyond the melting pot of New York politics that religion, race, and ethnicity aren’t at least as important as region.

    So what we have here is Roman Catholic Kristen Gillibrand, nee Rutnik (and married to a British national) vs Carolyn McCarthy and/or Carolyn Maloney, both also Catholic, vs Steve Israel, who’s probably Jewish, judging from his last name (yeah, I’m kidding). And this going on in a state where the party succeeded for decades by having the leaders go into the back room and come out with “a balanced ticket.”

    The balanced ticket consisted of “someone for everyone” for the four top statewide offices and a Senate seat. So, at least one Jewish candidate, at least one Irish or Italian Catholic, in later years one black (or perhaps a Hispanic), at least one non-Jewish non-Irish non-Italian candidate, as well as at least one from the City, one from the suburbs, one from Upstate, and not more than two from any category. Say what you will, this politically incorrect quota system was a winning formula. And this affirmative action policy produced outstanding politicians like the German Catholic Robert Wagner, the Jewish Herbert Lehman, the WASP Averill Harriman, and the Irishman Daniel Patrick Moynihan.

    So heading into the paddock, we have a sitting Senator who happens to be Jewish. (My hunch is this will work very much against Steve Israel.) We have an Italian Attorney General who might well run for Governor. We have a black Governor who is in a heap of trouble. (We also have a black likely to be the party’s nominee for Mayor who is likely to lose to the Jewish incumbent. Seeing two blacks in a row lose their races could disillusion some black voters and mean low turnout and trouble for the Democrats in the fall of 2010.) We have a vacancy for Lt Gov. We have an Italian serving as State Comptroller.

    Hmmmn. Schumer, Patterson, and Cuomo are from the City. Comptroller DiNapoli is from the suburbs. Upstate has Albany-reared Gillibrand. Four men and one woman.

    But the Irish are shut out of the top offices in New York State. Unless an Irish candidate gets cleared for the soon-to-be-vacant Attorney General’s spot and soon, they will be restless. One of the female Irish candidates will likely run against Gillibrand.

    Yeah, it’s tribal. I didn’t cause it; I just report it. And I’m not predicting who will win.

  5. Is she running ads? Obviously not since nobody.knows.who.she.is. And since she is a fundraising monster that isn’t a problem. Don’t know what the fuss is about.

  6. Patterson’s numbers are a reflection of having a bad economy and having to enact unpopular policies.  Unpopular both to dems and republicans.  He’s had ads run against him for month.  The question is whether he can recover.  Especially since winning (and hence recovering) may depend on him playing rough rather than nice.

    Gillibrand’s problem is still bad name identification.  A lot of people only vaguely know she even is Senator nevermind who she is.  Unlike Schumer and former Senator Clinton she is not a fixture on the news.  And unlike both of them even political junkies would have difficult for example recognizing what her voice sounds like.

    Unlike Patterson it is not a matter of anyone liking or disliking the job she’s doing.  Just her need to be be more aggressive presenting herself to the voters.

  7. Odd that Gillibrand has only moved left but has seen her numbers fall.

    I wonder if theres a chance Cuomo runs for Gov and Spitzer runs for AG?

  8. Downstate New Yorkers are not taken in by her supposed move to the left. [emphasis added]

    I’d accept “opportunistic” or “insincere,” but “supposed?”  She has in fact moved hard and fast to the left in her voting.  Seems like downstaters just don’t like sharing with upstaters.

  9. so delusional. Israel looks more likely anyway.

    I don’t find being moderate baggage, i don’t know about you. Having a one track ideology with no in-party critics and no one to ever question or hae differing viewpoints is an authoritarian party i don’t want and won’t belong to. New york has a proud history of moderates in the Senate, from Schumer himself, to Clinton, to Javits, to Moynihan. But I also credit Gillibrand immensely for reaching out to several key constituients including the gay community and has continued to be good on labor issues. She was hardly the most conservative blue dog anyway, far from it, go look at the south. The purpose of Patterson’s appointment was to recognize a hard campaigning, talented, and eloquent on the rise politician from upstate New York and you seem to be beating her down because she’s not a flaming liberal. I gurantee you that in the general primary she won’t have any trouble at all dispensing any of the three or all three of them.

  10. I take personal experience over numbers and my personal experience on the ground in New York is Republicans hate her, Independents don’t know her but like Pataki and Democrats will vote for whoever the Democrat is.  

  11. He’s falling off a cliff, and she’s associated with him in people’s minds (at the moment anyway), and is being pulled down with him.

    (Pretty soon she’ll have to start saying: “Dave who?”, lol)

    Still, in that Senate primary poll, the Undecided/Don’t Knows exceed Maloney’s 31, so it’s way early.

  12. but I don’t get that sense at all talking to people. I get the sense that they don’t know who Gillibrand is yet…but I rather expected that at this point.

    It could be that she’s solidifying Republican opposition in the state that her numbers dropped.  

  13. make up more of the population? Like a lot more? They might resent having a bunch of dairy cows and moose treated as equals to them.

  14. more insulting to Upstate New York?

    I live in the city, and while we do make up more of the population, Upstate consistently gets SCREWED because downstate dominates everything.

    So if my fellow downstaters resent having upstate treated equal to them, then my response is “get the fuck over it”

  15. According to the SUSA poll referenced earlier in this thread the NYC metro area makes up 68% of likely voters.  Even with the moose and dairy cows counted in upstate it seems like downstate outnumbers them.

  16. It’s one thing for you to proudly say that you prefer personal anecdotes over hard numbers. But saying upstate gets “consistently screwed” just isn’t supported by the facts. Do you know about the Campaign for Fiscal Equity? The fact that, as of 1995, “the city receive[d] only 34 percent of state aid although it educate[d] 37 percent of the state’s pupils”? The decades of lawsuits devoted to remedying this disparity? The state fighting the most recent suit (dating back to 1993) every step of the way? That even in 2006, “New York City’s share of an increase in basic state education aid will be capped at 38.86 percent – even if its student population grows faster than that.”

    I agree with you that there’s no call for stupid cow remarks. But it’s simply wrong to act as though upstate NY is constantly getting the short end of the stick because NYC “dominates everything”.

  17. but does that mean Upstate has no right to any statewide offices, simply because they’re only about a third of the state?

    Problem-wise, Upstate needs a lot of help and is consistently ignored. That’s, IMO, the prime reason Gillibrand was appointed.

    Running a primary campaign on the basis of “I come from where most people live” is wrong and I wouldn’t support it.  

  18. Over the past couple decades hasn’t the population lost in NY been mostly upstate due to a decline in industry and agriculture similar to that in places like Ohio and West Virginia?  Sounds like a structural problem.  New York City has adapted to change with the rise of the financial sector.  I’m not sure what the solution for upstate is.  It just doesn’t seem an attractive place to live.

  19. Upstate is WAY overrepresented in the state senate, mostly because of prisoners counted in the Census.

    Upstate is entitled to its fair representation, but it is not entitled to a statewide office any more than the “real America” is entitled to the Presidency.  

  20. I’m sorry for the tone in my remark; it seems to have struck a nerve. I’m especially sorry if it was understood that I was saying that people living in Upstate NY themselves are “dairy cows and moose.” I was trying to express the population disparity between the two regions in a humorous and succinct way (as in, you’d have literally start counting all the livestock in upstate before it approached the human population downstate), but reading it again, it’s fairly obvious how it totally failed at being thoughtful and only inflamed a tense discussion.

  21. Carolyn Maloney is not Catholic – she’s a Southern Presbyterian (originally from Greensboro, NC).

    Carolyn McCarthy is indeed Catholic – and an Irish one at that.

  22. Sorry. I hadn’t put attention! And like an ass assumed that Maloney was an Irish name and therefore Catholic. Thanks for schooling me!

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