IL-14: Hastert Retirement Watch

Via the Hotline (sub. only):

At least 3 state legislators are “looking at running” for outgoing Speaker Dennis Hastert’s seat “if and when he retires.” Pro-Hastert forces are “lining up” behind state Rep. Tim Schmitz (R), while “conservative” state Sen. Chris Lauzen (R) “has long eyed the seat and is expected to throw his hat into the ring.” On the Dem side, locals are “very hopeful” that state Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia (D) will run (Capitol Fax newsletter, 11/30).

My understanding is that the GOP side of things is a bit more colorful than this simple description would indicate. Apparently, the “moderates” back Schmitz because they feel Lauzen is a right-wing nutcase. This story played out many times in 2006 – a radical wingnut beating a more reasonable candidate in the Republican primary – often to our advantage.

You had lunatic Bill “Brain Fade” Sali in ID-01; Doug Lamborn in CO-05,  whom outgoing GOP Rep. Joel Hefley refused to endorse; and crazy winger Randy Graf in AZ-08 who was all but abandoned by the national party. Yeah, we lost the first two, but we made them sweat bigtime – and Giffords utterly steamrolled in the last one.

There are other examples, of course, including reverse examples. For instance, we might have done better in NV-02 if the Club for Growth nutter had won the primary, and I think everyone on our side was rooting for Steven Laffey to beat Linc Chaffee (though we kicked ass in RI anyway). So here’s hoping that Chris Lauzen wins any special primary on the GOP side.

As for our team, I haven’t previously heard of Linda LaVia. Anyone know anything about her?

P.S. Who’s gonna call shotgun on editing the wiki page?

22 thoughts on “IL-14: Hastert Retirement Watch”

  2. I think it is important to keep an eye on State Rep. Tom Cross (R-Oswego) as well.  A long conversation with my neighbor and GOP Committeeman (he stores Hastert’s parade elephant in his barn) indicated that Cross was the guy.

    Secondly, Steve Rauchenburger inquired into his old office in Elgin, IL.

    Both Rauschenberger and Cross have districtwide/statewide name recognition and fundraising lists.

    Lauzen is a tough grassroots campaigner and the GOP fight will leave a nice little rift after the battle.  In a Special Election, I would hope that Lauzen is not the victor.  He has the ability to rally the silent majority.  Winning a Special Election is about GOTV.

    The reason that Hastert Republicans back Schmitz/Cross comes back to Denny’s Highway.  Lauzen is opposed to the Hastert Highway, a dream project for Fox Valley developers for the last 10-12 years.

    A final note on Schmitz or Lauzen comes from my last “Chairman’s note:”

    (We know that Tim Schmitz is the past “Denny pick,” but I believe that he dropped out after conducting a name recognition poll).  The poll was conducted by Rod McCulloch and was reported on by the Beacon News political writer, Matt DeFour.

    Here’s another clue, for what it’s worth. GOP pollster Rod McCulloch conducted a poll of 400 Republican voters in the 14th congressional district in late October and asked who they would like to see succeed Hastert if he retires.
    He mentioned in an e-mail that went out the weekend before the election that one of the potential candidates listed in the poll also sponsored the poll, but he wouldn’t say who and he wouldn’t say which Republicans were listed. He also wouldn’t release the results of the poll.
    The potential candidates I mentioned previously deny sponsoring the poll, but someone out there knows the results.
    McCulloch did drop one intriguing clue to a riddle that I’m sure every potential candidate is salivating to solve.
    Based on the results, the person who sponsored the poll is no longer interested in running.

    John Laesch

  4. has been salivating for this opportunity as well, I think. We would be treated to an awfully interesting fight between him and Chapa LaVia on the Dem side were Denny to step down.

    It would be interesting to see who Mike Madigan would support. He seems to have a love/hate thing going with Chapa but if he is feeling some love toward her, he will help her to find money and resources.

    Personally, I’d like to see Laesch go for it again, he’s a great candidate and right on the issues. Weisner is something of a political whore who triangulates to an amazing degree, and Chapa, while very popular in her District, would probably get crushed in the more rural areas of IL-14. But Laesch’ll have to play ball with the money people & the DCCC if he is to have a shot.

  6. SoapBlox/Chicago began having this discussion two days after election day. Among Democrats in the district there seems to be two camps (Chapa LaVia and Laesch). The Republican to watch out for (as mentioned upthread) is Tom Cross. He is a dark horse in this, but may decide to try to stay in the state legislature to continue his attempt to pull the Illinois GOP away from the nutjobs currently controlling it.

    More coverage on IL-14 here.

  7. not all Republicans like Hastert. Many local republicans where strongly opposed to Praire Parkway, but Hastert used his power to shove it down their throats, amking many local Republicans very angry. The Republican Primary won’t be a race between moderate and conservative so much as it is a race between National Republican/Hastert Lackey, and local Republican/good ole boy. A lot of Republicans are going to wnat this district, we’ll probably see about 9 serious candidates, becuase many people have been waiting and slowly preparing for Hastert’s retirment fro over a decade, (by the way Hastert was going to retire in 2006, but got held off by just one term). This is going to be a very expensive, nasty, and draining Republican primary. With a good, new democratic organization and GOTV effort in this district, either Laesch, (if he finally raises money), opr LaVia could win, especially seeing as how all of North Illinois is trending Democratic, especially this district.

    IL-14 is getting more Democratic allong it’s suburban edges, but the rural areas were the spots most infuriated by the Praire Parkway, and if a highly conservative Hatstert Lackey gets nominated, they could finally vocie their frustrations adn put a Democrat in office. That Democrat would have a tough reelection the next election, but if che/she ould gain ground in the suburbs as an incumbent, then he/she could win reelection.

  8. I like John – but he didn’t hit it out of the park.  He din’t hit a triple or a double.  He made it on base.  It’s not all Johns fault though.  The 14th is not only the most conservative region of Illinois it is ALSO the largest and most aggressive Democrat hating region of Illinois. 

    Dennis Hastert protected a pedophile and the conservatives reelected him only because they would NEVER – I mean NEVER EVER vote for a Democrat or a progressive.  If there was an independant running – maybe he/she would have had a better chance in the 14th.  Joe Serra and Rubin Zamora would also had trouble in the 14th.  Too bad Serra dropped out of the race prematurely he may have done a lot better than anyone.

    RE: Lauzen – He’ll run and he’ll win.  No Dem will beat him.
    No Dem will beat ANY Repub running in the 14th.

  9. I’m not convinced that a Dem can win here. 

    You mentioned the funding deficit.  ALL of the (for lack of a better term) “new” Dems faced a huge funding deficit.  The Democratic party of Illinois as well as the Kane, Kendall, Will, etc… Counties stiffed the candidates.  Some candidates were recruited some ran on their own initiative and all were lied to by the Democratic party.  They were all promised a lot of money to help with their ground breaking campaigns but not a single dime was given. 

    I have a jaded opinion now of the Democratic party in Illinois.

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