Rasmussen (9/10, likely voters, 8/6 in parens):
Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 46 (47)
Dino Rossi (R): 52 (46)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Huh? That’s a gigantic jump for Rossi in the Washington governor’s race, with the first poll of the entire race to give him more than a one-point lead. With nothing having happened in the last month that would move the dial much in this race (other than a continued deluge of Rossi ads), it would be kind of hard to believe if it weren’t for last week’s SurveyUSA poll, which also had Rossi taking the lead (albeit by one point). Even if this Rasmussen poll is a bit of an outlier (the same sample had Obama up by only 2, which also shows a much closer race than anyone else before), it can’t be that screwed up an outlier, and in view of SUSA’s poll it should probably be viewed as at best a tied race (see the Pollster.com chart now).
A look inside the crosstabs shows the main problem for Gregoire… and also the main problem with the poll itself. Rossi is winning 89-8 among McCain voters, while Gregoire is winning only 81-19 among Obama voters. That’s believable (maybe some Obama/Rossi voters are taking ‘change’ a little too comprehensively).
On the other hand, this poll shows one of the key Obama demographics, the youth vote, going overwhelmingly for Rossi (shades of that SUSA WA-08 poll last week). 18-29 year olds favor Rossi 72-20, 30-39 year olds favor Rossi 58-39, and 40-49 year olds favor Rossi 52-47. Only the 50+ crowd favors Gregoire. Now that smells a little fishy.
Rasmussen (9/11, likely voters, 8/7 in parens):
Jay Nixon (D): 54 (51)
Kenny Hulshof (R): 39 (39)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
The open seat governor’s race in Missouri is a completely different story, with Attorney General Jay Nixon on cruise control. Representative Kenny Hulshof (who was at 38 in July) doesn’t seem to have gotten a bump out of the Republican convention, winning his own primary, or anything else. With Washington and North Carolina both looking fuzzy right now, though, a victory here might just lead to a net gain of zero in the statehouses.
UPDATE (James): A new Elway poll of Washington gives Gregoire a 48-44 lead, and says that Obama is leading McCain by 46-37. (Tip o’ the cap: conspiracy)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/…
Anyone from MO/WA willing to enlighten this outsider on what’s happening with downballot races in these states. Any potential pickups/losses? While I’m not too concerned about the WA state leg., I was wondering about whether or not we can close the gap in the MO House/Senate.
I’ve been a bit of a worrier about the Washington governor’s rematch since before the recount was over, last time. There appeared to be a sharp sense of resentment, on the other side of the aisle, about the eventual outcome in that race, more than the usual disappointment of the losing side in a routine contest. They seemed really aggrieved, and I have anticipated, ever since, that there would be highly motivated GOP voters waiting impatiently for a chance to reverse the outcome, voters on whom Governor Gregoire’s actual performance in office would have little impact, because they made up their mind last cycle what they would do when the rematch rolled around.
I hope she’ll prevail, but I have expected it to be a close one, all along.
So, not being a polling guy, I’ve accepted the argument that the proliferation of cellphone-only individuals has a negligible impact on polling. I don’t understand it, but I accept it.
But how about the 18-29 demographic specifically? How does one reach an 18-29 year old on a landline?
Well, either at their parents’ house, if the kid is at the younger end of that range, or you reach them at their own house.
I have a vague impression that the bulk of 24-29 year olds who set up households with landlines are the married (or cohabiting) ones — households where the two people are actually one family, and so a significant number of callers are willing to call and reach either one of them. Single 24-29 year-olds living alone just don’t get landlines, and 24-29 year-olds in roommate situations where you’re not actually one family still don’t have much use for them. If I call my buddy Scott and reach his wife Sarah, that’s cool, cause she’ll know where he is and will see him later that evening, but if I call my buddy Nick and reach his random housemate I’ve never met? Not useful. So how often do Nick and Stranger really bother getting and sharing a landline at all?
So in short, I’m wondering if the 23-32yrs sample that the pollsters are getting with landlines is skewing to the married (and married young) crowd. Because that could explain the unusually Republican tilt that so many pollsters are getting in that demo. And I can’t think offhand of any other reason for that result to be appearing over and over again.
How can it be so hard to believe that Rossi is getting a small chunck of Obama voters? He got a chunk in 2004. Kerry won the state with 53% of the vote, while Gregoire won with only 48%.
Hes done it before, and he will probably do it again. Lets just see if it will be enough this time.