IL-10, NJ-03, PA-06: GOPers Release Polls

IL-10 (McLaughlin & Associates for Mark Kirk, 9/10-11, likely voters, 6/9 in parens):

Dan Seals (D): 29 (32)

Mark Kirk (R-inc): 51 (53)

Undecided: 21 (15)

(MoE: ±5.7%)

On its face, those are some un-sexy numbers for Dan Seals. However, the partisan breakdown of the poll is 35D-33R-29I. Labels and Lists pegs the district as 34D-21R-44I, and other internal Democratic numbers I’ve seen show Dems with a 7-point advantage here in terms of partisan identity. Also importantly, Kirk has saturated the airwaves (broadcast, cable, and radio) with $650K worth of ads in the last month. The DCCC has just started to enter the action here, sending out mailers and airing ads immediately after this poll was conducted. Seals himself has just gone back up on the airwaves:

NJ-03 (McLaughlin & Associates for Chris Myers, 9/8-9, likely voters):

John Adler (D): 29

Chris Myers (R): 33

Undecided: 37

Barack Obama (D): 42

John McCain (R): 45

(MoE: ±5.7%)

This is a D+3.3 district in South Jersey that Kerry lost by two points in 2004. I’d be surprised if Obama fared as bad as this poll suggests, but this is also a district that’s not accustomed to electing Democrats to Congress. On the bright side, Adler maintains a ginormous financial edge over Myers, and the DCCC has already been making their presence felt in the district. Still, never take anything for granted.

PA-06 (Public Opinion Strategies for Jim Gerlach, 8/19-21, likely voters, 5/21 in parens):

Some Dude Bob Roggio (D): 28 (30)

Jim Gerlach (R-inc): 57 (56)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Yeah, I can’t say I have much in the way of positive spin to offer here. Roggio’s name ID has jumped a whopping 5 points since May — all the way up to 10%!

11 thoughts on “IL-10, NJ-03, PA-06: GOPers Release Polls”

  1. I seriously doubt 27% are still undecided in NJ-03 this late, and there is absolutely no way in hell Seals in down 22 points.  McLaughlin doesn’t exactly have a sterling track record in any case.

    Here is McLaughlin’s poll from 10/9/2006 on IL-10:

    http://www.ourcampaigns.com/Ra…

    McLaughlin & Associates (R)

    10/08/06-10/09/06

    Kirk – 57.00%

    Seals – 32.00%  

    Seals lost by a 53-47 margin that year.  

  2. I think his time may have come and gone.  The rematch usually is worse for the challenger (IN-08 notwithstanding in 2006), and I think this rule will hold true this year (sorry Darcy Burner).

  4. These polls don’t even try to look accurate. Or if they do they fail horribly.

    As Chad noted last cycles poll for IL-10 had a similarly big margin. So Seals is really probably in about the same position as he ended up in 2006, probably closer. Seals needs a Obama ad. He can win this. 300 person sample polls are junk.

    A two day poll is very odd. And 300 person sample? That’s about a useful as a Zogby internet poll, a little less in fact. These polls just are not at all accurate. Alder not behind and neither is Obama.

    As for the PA-06 poll. It’s another flawed sample but Roggio isn’t going to win, I don’t know why this is being polled at all.

  5. We may not be able to count on much that we really ought to this election cycle, but him winning is one of the few things we can count on.  One thing that will surely happen is that Illinois will go overwhelmingly for Obama, which will have huge downballot coattails.  And if anyone’s wondering what the difference is between this cycle and 2006, where Democrats barely made any gains in Congress in Illinois, Obama wasn’t on the ballot in 2006 (nor Durbin); Blagojevich was.  Seals, particularly will benefit, being right next door to what not too long ago, was Obama’s state legislative district.

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