SurveyUSA (9/30-10/1, likely voters, 9/10-11 in parens):
Al Franken (DFL): 33 (40)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 43 (41)
Dean Barkley (IP): 19 (14)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
I like SurveyUSA a lot, but their work in Minnesota has been all over the map, often with some weird results for younger voters. This poll is no different; voters aged 18-34 support Coleman by a margin of 44-33-13, that’s down from 48-33-14 for Franken earlier in September. Franken isn’t having an easy time in this race, yes, but I highly doubt that the kids love Coleman that much.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
UPDATE: Major warning bell — SUSA just released their Presidential numbers for Minnesota (conducted as part of the same poll as the Senate numbers), and McCain is leading by 47-46. That’s starkly different from the latest CNN/Time poll showing Obama up by 54-43. I’m pretty suspicious of this poll altogether.
(Hat-tip to Minnesota Mike for flagging this one.)
SurveyUSA is messing up it’s youth vote big time. There is no way Franken loses the youth vote. It will be double digits in the youth vote at the very least.
Does anyone have crosstabs?
Youth vote – Coleman by 11
Complete BS. The youth breakdown is off by a mile. I suspect the Dems have better than a 7 point edge in likely voters as well. SUSA has not exactly been spot on in polling MN this cycle.
nobody’s a bit puzzled that Barkley is getting a whopping 19%?
This is not the first poll where the youth vote has broke for Coleman… I think I remember at least two others. It may be hard to believe, but I find it harder to believe that they’re all outliers.
Coleman is just too savy and Franken too unacceptable for too many independents and moderates. Why coudln’t we get a real, respectable politician? Sigh.
much better candidate in Georgia and a lot worse incumbent to take out.
I just don’t get the Franken love.
mccain wins 18-49 and loses 50+? makes no sense, and it’s of base of every other minnesota poll.
Something to remember about SUSA Minnesota polls.
As part of their likely voter screen SUSA uses only registered voters. Since Minnesota has same day registration most first time voters will not register until election day. Unless they are unusually politicaly active many voters under 22 are being screened out.
of SUSA’s Maryland Senate polls in 2006 which had Steele and Cardin tied a few days before the election.
Cardin won by like 10.
Minnesota is only remotely in play.
This whole poll is bunk. I could maybe see Coleman doing better than Franken with young voters just because Franken sucks as a candidate. Even that being said, it’s still hard to swallow. But Obama losing them to McCain? LOLZ
It seems Survey USA have a history of showing the presidential race closer in MN than anyone else. Having said that I think the Obama campaign made a mistake in assuming the state was safe and not putting up at least some ads, especially when the GOP convention was in the Twin Cities.
Look on page 2 of the crosstabs — conservatives outnumber liberals 2:1. In Minnesota? I don’t think so. They’ve way over-sampled Republicans and Republican leaning independents — the crosstabs claim 30% are Republicans, yet 31% are conservatives.
Don’t know what’s going on with SUSA’s likely voter screen, but I’m not buying it at all.