Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/8-10, likely voters):
Tom Vilsack (D): 44
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±4%)
The Great Orange Satan continues to test the temperature of 2010’s Senate races, and it gives us a pretty surprising result out of Iowa: Chuck Grassley, the longtime and popular GOP Senator, is surprisingly vulnerable to a challenge from ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack.
In the diaries recently, desmoinesdem nicely laid out the contours of this race, and identified the basic conundrum facing Democrats here:
And that brings me to the paradox in the title of this post. Clearly Grassley’s retirement would give Democrats the best chance (some might say only chance) to win this seat. However, Grassley is more likely to retire if Tom Vilsack or another major-league Democrat jumps in now, instead of waiting a year or longer to see whether the incumbent will decide to step down for some other reason.
Challenging Grassley means embarking on long and exhausting uphill battle. But putting Grassley on notice soon that Democrats will not give him a pass is one of the few things we could do to improve the odds that he will retire.
Polls like this one may give the ‘Sack some encouragement to actually pull the trigger — and possibly precipitate a retirement from Grassley, who will be 77 years old on election day.
Approval ratings:
Vilsack: 55/36
Grassley: 57/36
This would be awesome.
This poll might encourage Vilsack to consider it, but I don’t see him challenging Grassley. Thankfully there’s a good chance Grassley retires.
This sounds very similar to when now Senator Carper challenged Bill Roth a few years back — a multi-term sitting Senator challenged by a popular governor in a blue leaning but fairly centrist state. Both were well known and well liked figures, and Carper basically made the argument “Who do you want as your FUTURE Senator?” Like Grassley, Roth was conservative but not of the nutjob variety. Unlike Grassley, he had some health problems (and died a couple of years later).
Would somebody mind clarifying the moniker “Great Orange Satan” for me? Thanks 🙂
Perfect opportunity for him. Run Tom! Run!
Vilsack is not just competitive, but he is virtually tied. This race is winnable, and all the cowardly, defeatist 20th century Democrats should either wake up and smell the coffee or be quiet.
Iowa is a blue state, with a popular former Governor. If he runs and presents the Democratic agenda for two years in contrast to the Republican one, not only should he be competitive, he SHOULD win. If Visack were to run (and not make a major blunder) his chances of winning are 60%+.
After Specter, this is the #2 priority race in the country, should Vilsack have the “sack” to run. A seat like Burr may be easier, but this is the second most Democratic seat being held by a republican, and thus the whining defeatists need to be woken up or shooed away.
If Vilsack is not in the cabinet by January 1, Draft Tom Vilsack should be the netroot resolution/priority of the year.
if Grassley decides to stand and fight, let’s be clear about that. He does have genuine crossover appeal in Iowa. But right now Vilsack is an attorney in private practice. What does he have to lose by starting to raise money and test the waters for a Senate run? I think he can nudge Grassley to retire.
reminds me of the 1984 NC Senate race vs. Jim Hunt and Jesse Helms. Jim Hunt was a fairly popular Governor and Jesse Helms was a fairly popular Senator. Hunt was 16 years younger than Helms, and Hunt had been a Governor for 8 years (Helms, at the time, had been Senator for 12). Jim Hunt lost to Jesse Helms on election day.
That being said, 1984 was 24 years ago, this race was in NC and not Iowa, and Grassley is a much more ethical person than Helms, so you won’t see as many dirty tricks performed if Vilsack entered the race.
If I was Grassley, I’d really consider whether I’d want to serve in the Senate another 6 years in the minority party. Also, I can’t imagine Grassley would want to leave the Senate except on his own terms. Maybe this 4 point lead will make Grassley consider “hanging it up”.