PPP (1/17-18, registered voters):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 45
John Kasich (R): 39
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Ted Strickland has a lead going into the 2010 election against likely opponent ex-Rep. John Kasich, but it’s a surprisingly small lead (6 points, and under the 50% mark informally assumed to be the safety zone). Strickland started out extremely popular, but has perhaps suffered a bit in tandem with Ohio’s dismal economy.
Strickland’s favorables aren’t that bad (he’s at 48 favorable/35 unfavorable, compared with 34/24 for the dimly-remembered Kasich, who was a House GOP up-and-comer in the 90s but oddly retired in 2000). As PPP themselves point out, part of the problem with the topline may be a screwy sub-sample of African-Americans; only 52% support Strickland, while Democratic candidates typically pull 80-90% of the black vote in Ohio.
(H/t conspiracy.)
Giving Strickland 90% of the AA vote would take him to 50% by my back of the envelope math. Still seems underwhelming and I wouldn’t be surprised if this pegs Strickland’s support a few points too low.
I remember Kasich from the 80s and early 90s when I first started paying attention to politics, and he was a pretty respected member of the House. He was a true budget hawk, probably best known early on for working with leftist Congressman Ron Dellums to eliminate funding for the B2 Bomber.
Then he retired and became a babbling O’Reilly and Hannity suck-up.
That said, he really seems out of step politically for the mood of the country right now. He comes off as so “corporate,” and that’s really not going to play well, especially in Ohio. For the time being, the prevailing attitude is going to be “Screw the deficit, and spend, spend, spend!”
I’ve never heard of this guy until I looked him up. Apparently the last time he held elective office was ten years ago. And yes, Strickland’s numbers are suffering because of Ohio’s dismal economy (The Democrats are controlling most statewide offices, so who else is there to blame). Hopefully, Obama can get some economic reform that will help places like Ohio that Strickland can capitalize on.
10 years ago may actually be good for his chances statewide, because he got out the door at exactly the point where the currently Bush-era began (I’m sure he cheerled for them on FOX or whatever on occasion, but that’s not the same thing for voters).
Should win in a landslide if that holds up. I fully expect that to happen, Strickland should not be one of our vulnerable incumbents with an opponent like Kasich.