SSP’s Competitive Senate Race Ratings: Initial Ratings for 2009-10

The Swing State Project is pleased to announce our first set of Senate race ratings for the 2009-10 election cycle:

Races to Watch:

     CA (Boxer)

     CT (Dodd)

     DE (Open)

     HI (Inouye)

     IA (Grassley)

     KS (Open)

     ND (Dorgan)

What follows are brief explanations of our initial ratings, including the “safe” races not listed above, in alphabetical order. DavidNYC, James L. and Crisitunity all contributed to this post – our individual contributions are noted for each entry. A permalink to our ratings is available in the right-hand sidebar and can also be found here.

Alabama – Richard Shelby (R): Safe R

Democrats in Alabama are focusing on the open gubernatorial seat – Shelby’s eye-bursting $13 million on hand is a major deterrent. Some folks have speculated about a retirement (he’s 74), but his press secretary told SSP he’s running again. (DavidNYC)

Alaska – Lisa Murkowski (R): Safe R

The excitement here, if any, will come from a potential R-on-R primary matchup featuring Sarah Palin vs. Lisa Murkowski. There really isn’t a Dem who could make this competitive, and in any case, there’s a long list of more appetizing targets ahead of Alaska. (D)

Arizona – John McCain (R): Safe R

When Obama tapped Janet Napolitano to run the Dept. of Homeland Security, we lost our best candidate to take on John McCain – though I’m not sure she would have jumped in anyhow. Given Obama’s unusual closeness with his former rival, I tend to doubt that any major names will get in. (D)

Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln (D): Safe D

Even though Arkansas broke sharply for McCain while most of the rest of the county got quite a bit bluer, there really is no Republican bench here. Only Mike Huckabee could make this race competitive, and he ain’t running. (D)

California – Barbara Boxer (D): RTW

Dick Mountjoy. Bill Jones. Tom Campbell. Matt Fong. Those are the last four California Republicans to run for Senate, and the best performance among them was Fong’s 43% against Boxer. But that was ten years ago, and things have only gotten worse for the Cali GOP as it has moved implacably rightward. The small chance that term-limited Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger runs makes this a “Race to Watch,” but if he bails, it’s Safe D. (D)

Colorado – Michael Bennet (D): Lean D

With Gov. Bill Ritter tapping a complete statewide unknown to replace Ken Salazar in the Senate, most assume that the GOP will mount a serious effort to dislodge former Denver Superintendent of Public Schools Michael Bennet as he faces voters for the first time in 2010. However, the bigger names seem to be taking a pass for now; both state AG John Suthers and ex-Rep. Scott McInnis have declined to run for the seat. While Bennet still has a lot to prove, he’s off to a good start. (James L.)

Connecticut – Chris Dodd (D): RTW

Chris Dodd’s favorability ratings in his home state have suffered ever since his very unsuccessful presidential run, an undertaking he was never quite able to explain to his constituents – or Iowa caucus-goers, for that matter. Allegations that he got favorable “VIP” loan terms from lender Countrywide haven’t helped. What makes this a Race to Watch is the fact that three reasonably strong Republicans could all potentially give it a gander: Gov. Jodi Rell and former Congressmen Rob Simmons and Chris Shays. But Dodd is a powerful fundraiser in a blue state, and no one has stepped up to the plate yet. (D)

Delaware – Ted Kaufman (OPEN) (D): RTW

This race will only become exciting if Rep. Mike Castle gets in (something that could conceivably happen, especially since life in the Senate minority is a lot better than life in the House minority). If not, DE-Sen should be solidly in our corner. (D)

Florida – Mel Martinez (OPEN) (R): Tossup

An open seat race in one of the nation’s most populous and most closely-split states? With Mel Martinez retiring, look for this one to be the marquee race of 2010. With popular Democratic state CFO Alex Sink taking a pass on the race, there’s no clear frontrunner in the race or even a frontrunner for either party’s nomination. On the Dem side, Rep. Kendrick Meek has already declared his interest, but he won’t be the only one. (Crisitunity)

Georgia – Johnny Isakson (R): Safe R

If Democrats field a strong candidate here, this race could conceivably be of some degree of interest, but it seems unlikely that guys like Jim Marshall or Thurbert Baker would be willing to give up their perches for a run against an untarnished Republican incumbent in a state that has routinely snakebitten Democrats since 2002. If a high profile primary challenger emerges to take on Isakson (as has been rumored), then perhaps this one can get interesting, but until then, all we have is a dollar and a pocketful of “ifs”. (J)

Hawaii – Daniel Inouye (D): RTW

Octogenarian Inouye has said he’s running again, and he should have a clear shot. The only wrinkle is if term-limited Gov. Linda Lingle makes a play. But she’s almost certainly better off biding her time, waiting for a senatorial retirement. (D)

Idaho – Mike Crapo (R): Safe R

Idaho Dems will be doing everything they can to protect Walt Minnick in his first re-election campaign. This race is not on anyone’s radar. (D)

Illinois – Roland Burris (D): Likely D

We are the junior senator from Illinois – for now. By all rights this seat should be Safe D, but if by some insane mix-up we wind up with, say, Roland Burris vs. Ron James Tiberius Kirk, IL-Sen could be in serious jeopardy. Our “Likely D” rating is more of a commentary on the wildly unsettled state of play than an indicator of our real expectations. This is a good example of a race that is especially difficult to assess so early on; the label on this sucker is definitely going to change, probably more than once. (D)

Indiana – Evan Bayh (D): Safe D

Sadly, Evan Bayh has never even come close to living up to the legacy of his father, populist hero Birch Bayh. But the Bayh name is still incredibly powerful in Indiana, and Evan has done a good job entrenching himself in office. Prominent Hoosier Republicans, scratching their heads as to how their state swung twenty points bluer in 2008, are almost certain to take a pass. (D)

Iowa – Chuck Grassley (R): RTW

Grassley’s been the subject of a lot of retirement rumors, if only because of his age. But his tight relationship with Max Baucus, and his career-long posture as more of a process guy than a legislation guy, probably mean that his life in the minority is a lot better than average. If he bails, though, this race will probably attract the likes of Rep. Bruce Braley and shoot straight to Tossup. (D)

Kansas – Sam Brownback (OPEN) (R): RTW

Several big-name Republicans have already declared for or openly contemplated getting into this race, so at least there ought to be a fun GOP primary. But unless term-limited Gov. Kathleen Sebelius is our nominee, Dems will be boxed out in this state (which hasn’t sent a Dem to the Senate since before your mother was born). (D)

Kentucky – Jim Bunning (R): Tossup

With Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn both trying to shove Jim Bunning out the door, and Democratic Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo announcing his intention to seek a rematch, Bunning is feeling the squeeze from all sides. While a Bunning retirement would almost certainly be met with cheer from Senate Republicans, for now we have to assume that the doddery Senator is sincere in his desire to seek another term (and he certainly seems annoyed at any suggestion to the contrary). If he does indeed face the voters again, Democrats are eager to pound the notoriously poor campaigner with full force in 2010 after failing to to adequately fund the upstart Mongiardo in ’04. A Bunning retirement or a nasty Democratic primary could cause us to readjust the scales here, but for now, the Republicans begin this race with no clear advantage whatsoever. (J)

Louisiana – David Vitter (R): Likely R

While some observers have singled out “Diaper” Dave Vitter as an incumbent facing serious jeopardy in 2010, we’re not really as sanguine about Democratic fortunes in a state that actually took an even sharper turn toward the GOP in 2008 than it did four years previous. If Republicans outraged over Vitter’s love of prostitutes manage to coalesce around a serious primary challenger, then we might see more of an opening for a Democratic challenge. (J)

Maryland – Barbara Mikulski (D): Safe D

Even if Mikulski, one of the few Dems who might be contemplating retirement, were to call it quits, we have a deep bench here and the GOP has… well, they have 83-year-old Rep. Roscoe Bartlett – so old he was originally elected on the Whig line. Hell, Tommy Carcetti would beat his ass. Next. (D)

Missouri – Kit Bond (OPEN) (R): Tossup

Kit Bond handed Democrats a major gift here by announcing his retirement earlier this month, but if this race follows the pattern of most other recent statewide elections in Missouri, it’ll be a major battle all the way through election day. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan seems set to run for the Democrats, and she’ll be a strong nominee against a Republican field that is still very much in flux. (J)

Nevada – Harry Reid (D): Likely D

Reid seems to have been scarred for life by his 400-vote win over John Ensign in 1998 and has run scared ever since. His perpetual defensive crouch has hurt Dems on the Hill, though it may save him against a potential strong run by either Rep. Dean Heller or former Rep. Jon Porter – or it might make him look like a weakling Dem from the bad old 2002 era. No matter what, Reid’s prominent position means that protecting him will be a top priority for Bob Menendez. Knowing that, top-shelf Republicans might decline, which could return Reid to Safe status. (D)

New Hampshire – Judd Gregg (R): Lean R

Paul Hodes seems very likely to run here, and if he does, he’s going to give Gregg a very serious race, and probably move the needle to Tossup within a year or so (if not before then). It’s also possible that Gregg will retire, in which case Dems will be in the driver’s seat. (D)

New York-A – Chuck Schumer (D): Safe D

You cannot even hope to contain Chuck Schumer. (D)

New York-B – Kirsten Gillibrand (D): Safe D

It’s clear that Gov. David Paterson picked Gillibrand because she checks off a number of boxes – woman, upstate, prodigious fundraiser – and because she has considerable political skills. Peter King has been whining about the choice, but only because he’s bummed he won’t have the chance to take on Caroline Kennedy. Even if a Dem primary does materialize (something I’m skeptical of), there just really isn’t a single GOPer in the state who can make this interesting. (And no, Rudy ain’t gonna run.) (D)

North Carolina – Richard Burr (R): Lean R

Richard Burr faces several disadvantages in his quest for his first re-election: the fact that North Carolina is a lot bluer than it was in 2004, and his status as one of the Senate’s most anonymous back-benchers. With a number of top-tier Democrats eyeing the race (AG Roy Cooper, former Treasurer Richard Moore, Rep. Heath Shuler) and polling very close to Burr, he looks to face a much harder fight than he did four years ago. (And for the superstitious among us, remember that this is the “cursed seat,” which no one has successfully retained for decades.) (C)

North Dakota – Byron Dorgan (D): RTW

Byron Dorgan has ensconced himself quite nicely in North Dakota, increasing his already-sizable victory margins with every race (59% to 63% to 68%). The only dark cloud on the prairie is a possible run by popular GOP Gov. John Hoeven, hence the Race to Watch tag. (D)

Ohio – George Voinovich (OPEN) (R): Tossup

George Voinovich’s retirement creates another open seat opportunity for the Democrats. Ex-Rep. and ex-OMB Director Rob Portman seems to have the GOP nomination locked down, while the Democratic field remains unsettled (although currently Rep. Tim Ryan seems very  much inclined to do it, while Lt. Gov Lee Fisher seems leaning against). Polling gives Portman a small edge right now, but once the attacks on his free-trading, loyal-Bushie ways begin, look for this to turn into a barnburner. (C)

Oklahoma – Tom Coburn (R): Safe R

Tom Coburn is a crazy bastard. Tom Coburn is a disgrace to the Senate. Tom Coburn has single-handedly held up tons of popular legislation to suit his personal whims. And yet Tom Coburn is very, very likely to remain a United State Senator come 2011. (D)

Oregon – Ron Wyden (D): Safe D

Ron Wyden has drawn third-tier opposition in his last two runs for the Senate. With the state’s GOP bench in shambles and anyone left capable of playing statewide (Greg Walden, the newly-unemployed Gordon Smith) eyeing the open governor’s race, this is likely to continue. (C)

Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (R): Lean R

Democrats’ chances at dislodging Arlen Specter may have gotten a little tougher, with Club for Growth honcho Pat Toomey training his circular firing squad on PA-Gov instead of a repeat primary challenge to Specter. Instead, the aging Specter gets to save his strength for the general election, where Rep. Allyson Schwartz seems to be on track to take the Dem nomination. With Pennsylvania, and especially Specter’s power center in the Philly suburbs, gradually becoming bluer, though, this still looks to be a very competitive race. (C)

South Carolina – Jim DeMint (R): Safe R

DeMint, unlike his Palmetto State colleague Lindsay Graham, has established his conservative bona fides quite firmly – which is to say, he’s a raging winger. In South Carolina, that probably helps, rather than hurts, most statewide Republicans as it ensures sufficient enthusiasm from the base. Dems don’t really have much of a bench here. (D)

South Dakota – John Thune (R): Safe R

Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is the only Dem who could give Thune a race, but if she leaves the House, it’ll be to run for Governor, not Senator. (D)

Texas – Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): Likely R

KBH is running for governor against incumbent Rick Perry. The only issue is when she’ll resign, triggering a special election that’s certain to be a free-for-all. Dems don’t have a great shot unless they can rally around a single candidate, something complicated by both former state Comptroller Jim Sharp and Houston Mayor Bill White both saying they’ll run. Plus, Texas Dems will be focused like a laser on winning the state House back, so as to have an all-important seat at the redistricting table. Still, this oughta be fun, and anything can happen in a special like this. (D)

Utah – Robert Bennett (R): Safe R

Does anyone know if Jeopardy mega-champion Ken Jennings is a Democrat? UPDATE: So he is! I should really read the articles I link to. Well, now all we have to do is convince Jennings to run. He’s probably way too smart for that, though. (D)

Vermont – Patrick Leahy (D): Safe D

Gov. Jim Douglas is the only Republican of any stature in the state, but the one poll of the race so far has Leahy cruising 58-36. It’s remarkable that a state which went Dem just once in the 20th century before 1992 could have turned so sharply blue (Vermont didn’t even vote for FDR in 1936!), but there you have it. (D)

Washington – Patty Murray (D): Safe D

Patty Murray may be one of the most misunderestimated members of the Senate, as several highly-touted U.S. Representatives (Linda Smith, George Nethercutt) found out to their dismay. With Dino Rossi heading back to the private sector bathed in two-time loser stank, and Cathy McMorris Rodgers focusing on the House leadership track, it’s looking like she’ll draw only minor opposition in 2010. (C)

Wisconsin – Russ Feingold (D): Likely D

Feingold always seems to draw a respectable challenge, perhaps in no small part due to his iconoclasm and fundraising purity, but it remains to be seen whether this cycle will be the one that finally breaks the pattern. Rep. Paul Ryan is said to be keeping an eye on the seat, but otherwise, the Wisconsin GOP has precious few weapons in their arsenal. (J)